NZ jobs miss sinks the kiwi as US data beats; midterm results land overnight

Daily Wrap, Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Mixed: Risk appetite was mixed rather than defensive: indices averaged -0.05% over 24h, oil rose 0.44% and gold fell 0.41%, while JPY (-0.35) was the weakest major and CHF (-0.09) drew no haven bid.

In short

• US data beat: JOLTS 7.523M (f/c 7.13M) and Factory Orders 1.8% (f/c 1.2%). The desk says that lifted December Fed hike odds to ~79% and kept USD near the top of the strength table (0.26). Metals paid for it: XAGUSD fell 1.58% on the day and XAUUSD 0.45%.
• New Zealand's Q3 jobs report missed on every line: unemployment 5.7% (f/c 5.5%) and employment -0.1% (f/c 0.4%). NZDUSD is down 0.67% since the New York Open note at 0.55867, back under 0.5600, and AUDNZD is up 0.49%.
• Midterm results start rolling in from ~23:00 UTC, with Senate control the swing factor for USD. Euro-area flash HICP (f/c 4%) follows at 10:00 UTC, then US ADP (f/c 69K) at 13:15 UTC.

Themes

US data beats keep the dollar firm into the vote

JOLTS and Factory Orders both beat, lifting December Fed hike odds to ~79% and US 10y yields to 4.954%. USDJPY has pushed above the 158.60 range top to 158.694, with JPY bottom of the strength table at -0.35, though MoF intervention talk is the stated cap. USD (0.26) has slipped just behind EUR (0.30) at the top of the table, with midterm uncertainty keeping DXY below 102.00.

Kiwi loses its December-hike prop

The Q3 labour report missed on employment, unemployment, participation and wage costs, directly attacking the December RBNZ hike premium the market had rebuilt after the 4-3 hold. NZDUSD has fallen 0.67% since the New York Open note to 0.55867, below the 0.5600 level OCBC flagged. AUDNZD is up 0.49%, partly reversing the RBA–RBNZ divergence slide toward 1.2430.

Oil whipsaw, metals pay

WTI swung through a 94.1–99.31 range, 1.5 times a normal day, with a 3.08% drop in 15 minutes at 13:43 UTC and a 2.18% gain in an hour by 14:36 UTC on conflicting Iran headlines. The renewed inflation angle hurt silver most: XAGUSD's day low of 48.609 tested the yearly-low zone, and XPTUSD fell 1.24% on the day. Gold held above the 3870.26 yearly low.

Midterms first, then euro inflation

Results come in overnight. The desk sees Democratic gains as largely priced, so only a sweep that includes the Senate is a clear USD negative, and a Republican hold would be the bigger USD-positive surprise. EURUSD is pinned at 1.11892 ahead of a HICP print forecast at 4%, with a December ECB hike already priced.

What moved

• NZD/USD −0.54% Q3 labour data missed across the board, with unemployment at 5.7% vs 5.5% and employment at -0.1% vs 0.4%, which the desk says undercuts December RBNZ hike bets.
• XAG/USD −1.58% Reported US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island revived energy and inflation fears, and the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats reinforced Fed hike bets, reversing Monday's bounce.
• XTI/USD +0.45% A headline-driven session in a 94.1–99.31 range: the Qeshm strike reports and Iran saying talks ended without a breakthrough lifted prices, while unconfirmed reports of nuclear concessions briefly knocked them back.
• XAU/USD −0.45% US 10y yields rose to 4.954% and firm US data pushed December hike odds to ~79% from ~75%, capping Monday's rebound.
• US30 −0.70% Our feed attributes the Dow's drop to Apple's margin forecast.
• USTEC +0.74% Big tech outperformed, with MSFT up 3.36% and NFLX up 4.6% on the day; there is no single clear driver in our news feed.

Releases

• USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.523M. The beat firmed the dollar: USDJPY is up 0.47% over 24h at 158.694, and XAUUSD slipped 0.45% on the day as hike odds rose.
• USD Factory Orders (MoM) 1.8%. Released alongside JOLTS, it trimmed early USD losses but left EURUSD (+0.02% over 24h) and GBPUSD (+0.05%) little changed.
• NZD Employment Change -0.1%. The headline miss drove the kiwi lower, and NZDUSD is down 0.67% since the New York Open note.
• NZD Unemployment Rate 5.7%. The higher jobless rate added to NZD pressure, and AUDNZD is up 0.49% since the previous note at 1.24743.
• NZD Participation Rate 70.4%. The softer participation print was part of the broad miss that pushed NZDUSD back below 0.5600.
• NZD Labour Cost Index (QoQ) 0.4%. Softer wage costs compounded the miss, leaving NZD the second-weakest major on the strength table (-0.33).

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.60 Former top of the multi-week range, now listed as H4 support after this week's breakout. Price sits just above it, and MoF rhetoric has centred on this area.
• NZD/USD 0.5583 Next D1 support below price now that 0.5600 has given way after the jobs miss; 0.5565 sits beneath it in the lower-high, lower-low chain from 0.5929.
• EUR/USD 1.1175 Nearest H4 support, just under the current 1.11892. Price is compressing below lower highs after recovering off 1.1104.
• XAU/USD 3,870.26 The yearly low and only listed D1 support. Today's 3895.39 low held above it within the lower-high chain from the September peak.
• XAG/USD 48.85 D1 support, briefly traded through at today's 48.609 low. Daily RSI is 24, deep in oversold territory.

Ahead

• 01:45 UTC CNY RatingDog Services PMI China's services gauge has no forecast in our calendar (previous 51.6) and is the first Asia-session read for AUD and NZD, both already on the back foot.
• 08:30 UTC SEK Riksbank Interest Rate Decision A hike to 2% from 1.75% is forecast, so the decision and guidance set the tone for SEK crosses in the European morning.
• 09:00 UTC EUR HCOB Composite PMI The composite is forecast at 51.9 and sets the activity backdrop for EURUSD an hour before inflation.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Flash HICP is forecast at 4% vs 3.8% previously; with a December ECB hike already priced, the desk sees a soft print as the bigger risk to that pricing for EURUSD and EUR crosses.
• 10:00 UTC EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) Core is forecast unchanged at 2.5%, and it tests Sleijpen's view that the Iran energy shock has not yet produced second-round effects.
• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change ADP is forecast at 69K (previous 90K); after today's beats, the desk flags a soft print as the bigger risk for gold and silver short positioning and for the ~79% December hike pricing.
• 13:20 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech Lane speaks shortly after HICP and gives the first ECB read on the print, after Nagel called a December hike 'very likely necessary'.

Until the next briefing, the Senate call in the overnight midterm count matters most: it is the swing factor the desk sees between a short-lived USD dip and a neutral-to-supportive outcome, with USDJPY sitting just above 158.60 and NZDUSD below 0.5600.