Dollar sits near its lows into ADP and ISM Services as stocks turn higher

New York Open, Wednesday, 4 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices are up an average 1.02% over 24h, JPY sits bottom of the strength table at -0.54 and oil is -2.48%, though gold's +3.25% and CHF at 0.35 show a defensive bid running alongside.

In short

• The US calendar leads. ADP is due at 13:15 UTC (f/c 69K, prev 90K), the S&P Global Composite PMI at 14:45 UTC (f/c 57.6) and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8, prev 54.9; Prices Paid prev 74). The desk says a December Fed hike is heavily priced, so a clean miss is what it would take to break DXY's 101.25 support.
• London extended the dollar's slide. EURUSD is +0.29% since London Open at 1.12624, GBPUSD +0.24% at 1.34929, and USDCAD -0.25% at 1.39354, just under its 1.3941 seven-week low. USD is -0.42 on the strength table; only JPY is weaker at -0.54.
• Equities reversed the post-election dip. Since the last note US30 is +1.58%, FRA40 +1.77%, UK100 +1.52% and US500 +1.07%. XAUUSD is holding above 4,000 at 4042.12 (+2.83% on the day), while XTIUSD slid -1.64% to 95.45.

Themes

Dollar at its lows, US data decides the rebound

DXY is on 101.25 support, and ING and Rabobank note the dip is partly being reversed as focus returns to a strong economy and a December hike. EUR (0.5), GBP (0.41) and CAD (0.36) lead the strength table, while USDJPY is +0.13% since the last note at 158.355 after recovering from 157.39. The desk's read is asymmetric: hike bets are priced, so ADP and ISM need to miss to extend the dollar's slide.

Stocks shrug off the election, metals keep their gains

Equities flipped from the losses flagged at London Open: FRA40 is +1.77%, US30 +1.58% and UK100 +1.52% since the last note, with US500 +1.07%. Metals held their pop rather than giving it back. XAGUSD is +4.42% on the day at 51.995, just under the $52.32–52.50 resistance the desk flags. Gold is stretched into the $4,050–$4,074 zone per the digest, with soft US data the main thing that would test that.

Europe's data is done; ECB and BoE come next

HICP hit 4% and core held at 2.5%, both as expected, while PMIs were mixed with Germany beating and France slumping. Lane speaks at 13:20 UTC today, and Lagarde on Thursday is the bigger test for the euro. Thursday's BoE decision, where a hike to 4.00% is fully priced, drives EURGBP at 0.83469 and GBP after GBPUSD's push to seven-week highs.

What moved

• US30 +1.58% The AUD digest notes S&P 500 futures recovered as risk appetite improved, and the platform flagged sharp hourly gains in US30 and US500 mid-London; no single headline in our feed explains the turn.
• XAU/USD +2.83% The Democratic sweep of Congress hit the dollar and US yields and raised fiscal concerns, lifting gold back above $4,000 to new weekly highs.
• EUR/USD +0.29% The EUR digest calls this mostly a dollar story after the midterms; in-line 4% HICP added no fresh hawkish shock.
• USD/CAD −0.25% Broad USD weakness and lower Treasury yields after the midterms, with a hawkish Macklem underpinning CAD, pushed the pair to the 1.3941 seven-week low area.
• XTI/USD −1.64% US-Iran peace hopes are eroding the risk premium and traders took profits; IRGC tanker claims were faded.

Releases

• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 4%. The three-year high printed exactly in line and, per the EUR digest, had no immediate impact; EURUSD's +0.64% day has tracked the dollar instead.
• EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 2.5%. Core stuck at 2.5% added no new hawkish impulse, and EURGBP is barely changed at +0.06% on the day.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 53.4. The 08:55 composite beat; the EUR digest notes Germany beat while France slumped, and the euro's move stayed dollar-led.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 51.7. The Eurozone composite missed slightly but did not dent the euro; EURUSD pressed on to 1.12624.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.12625 H4 resistance at the window high, with price sitting right on it after a run of higher highs and higher lows since the 1.1104 swing low.
• USD/CAD 1.3941 D1 support at the seven-week low, the floor of a compressing falling wedge, now trading fractionally beneath it at 1.39354.
• USD/JPY 158.60 H4 range cap where a push above failed, and the zone the JPY digest says the market treats as intervention-sensitive.
• XAU/USD 4,082.67 D1 resistance at the broken October low, capping the rebound within the lower-high and lower-low chain since early September.

Ahead

• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change Seen slowing to 69K from 90K; the desk says hike bets are embedded, so a miss bears on DXY's 101.25 support and on XAUUSD, while a beat mainly helps the dollar repair toward 101.50.
• 13:20 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech First ECB read on the 4% October HICP; his tone matters for EURUSD as it presses the 1.1280 four-week high.
• 14:45 UTC USD S&P Global Composite PMI Forecast unchanged at 57.6; a second read on US activity ahead of ISM for USD crosses and indices.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Services PMI Expected at 54.8 vs 54.9; with December Fed-hike odds near 79% per the gold digest, it is the key test for USD, XAUUSD, XAGUSD and US indices.
• 15:00 UTC USD ISM Services Prices Paid Previous 74; the metals digests flag Prices Paid as a swing factor for Fed-hike pricing and Treasury yields.

Watch whether ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC hold DXY on 101.25 support or push it through, the factor deciding whether EURUSD's test of 1.12625 and gold's hold above $4,000 survive the US session.