Dollar claws back post-midterm losses; BoE hikes 9-0 to 4%; US claims next at 13:30 UTC

New York Open, Thursday, 5 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up an average 0.3% over 24h and gold is +1.94%, but the dollar sits atop the strength table at 0.2 with JPY second at 0.12, so risk appetite is split rather than clearly on or off.

In short

• The dollar has turned. USD was bottom of the 24h strength table at the London Open and is now top at 0.2. Since that note, USDCHF is +0.52% at 0.81797, USDJPY +0.36% at 158.466 and EURUSD -0.38% at 1.12225, as markets shifted focus from the midterm sweep back to solid US data.
• The BoE hiked to 4% with all nine members voting for a hike, against 7 expected, and Mann wanted 50bp per the desk. Even so, GBPUSD is flat on the day at 1.34678. Guidance on the path of further hikes now matters more than the vote.
• No HIGH-impact US data today. Jobless claims (f/c 196K), unit labor costs (f/c 0.6%) and productivity (f/c 2.5%) all land at 13:30 UTC with SNB's Schlegel. Then come Hammack at 13:50, Macklem at 15:30 and Lagarde at 16:00. Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the bigger test.

Themes

Dollar flips from bottom to top of the table

USD has gone from -0.35 to 0.2 on the 24h strength score since the London Open as markets moved on from the Democratic sweep to strong ADP, JOLTS and ISM data. The desk notes the dollar is bouncing from near monthly lows, with DXY's low at 101.20, and an 82% December Fed hike already priced. A soft labour print has more room to move pricing than a strong one.

BoE hikes 9-0, pound shrugs

The 25bp hike to 4% was fully priced, so the unanimous vote is being treated as a modest hawkish bonus. GBPUSD is unchanged on the day at 1.34678, still just below the 1.3503 seven-week high. MUFG expects a cautious tone and fewer hikes than priced, so guidance carries more risk than the vote did.

Oil bounces, gold pauses under its cap

XTIUSD is +2.83% since the London Open at 89.97 but still -13.17% on the week, and the desk flags Hormuz and US-Iran headlines as the dominant risk. XAUUSD is -0.19% since the last note at 4118.84 after a day high of 4146.63, though it is still +6.32% on the week. JP225 is -3.08% on the day with range at 1.58x normal, and US cash markets have not opened yet.

What moved

• USD/CHF +0.52% The franc lost ground as traders turned to US employment data. USDCHF bounced off its 0.8127 two-month low as the dollar steadied ahead of claims, NFP and Schlegel's 13:30 UTC speech.
• NZD/USD −0.47% The kiwi retreated from 0.5660 as the US dollar regained ground. The desk sees the earlier rally as USD-driven, with weak NZ jobs, a dovish RBNZ hold and the Nov 7 election capping the upside.
• EUR/USD −0.38% EURUSD gave back the oil-driven push to 1.1268 as the dollar rebounded on strong US data. German factory orders missing at 4.4% against a 4.8% forecast offered no offset.
• GBP/USD −0.22% Cable slipped with the broad dollar rebound, then bounced from session lows on the BoE's 9-0 hike to 4%. The desk calls the vote a modest hawkish bonus on an already-priced move.
• XTI/USD +2.83% Crude bounced from the 200-day SMA area near $86 after a 13.17% weekly slide, and ING calls the selloff overdone. Beyond that, there is no single clear driver in our news feed for this rebound.

Releases

• GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4%. The in-line hike left GBPUSD flat on the day at 1.34678. EURGBP is -0.16% since the London Open, with a -0.15% 15-minute drop flagged at 12:06 UTC.
• GBP BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike 9. The unanimous vote lifted the pound from session lows, but the broader dollar rebound has kept GBPUSD at 0% on the day.
• EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) 4.4%. EURUSD drifted lower through London (-0.38% since the London Open), though the desk puts that mainly down to the dollar's recovery.
• EUR Producer Price Index (YoY) 11.1%. The beat gave the euro no visible lift, with EURUSD -0.03% on the day at 1.12225.
• USD Challenger Job Cuts 43.994K. A little-changed print; the dollar's rebound is being framed around the broader run of firm US data rather than this release.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1221 D1 support at the base of the five-week range. Spot is sitting on it at 1.12225, and the day's low is 1.12166.
• GBP/USD 1.3503 H4 resistance tested twice; the seven-week high the uptrend has stalled beneath.
• USD/JPY 158.77 Top of the 158.35–158.77 band that has capped H4 rallies. Higher lows are compressing beneath it.
• XAU/USD 4,146.92 H4 resistance at the top of the 4142–4147 cap where the V-shaped recovery from 3870.26 has paused; the day's high is 4146.63 and H4 RSI is 73.

Ahead

• 13:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast 196K after 194K. The desk notes a low print would support the intraday dollar rebound, with EURUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD most exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Unit Labor Costs Forecast 0.6% after 1.2%. It is an early read on wage pressure ahead of Friday's earnings data, and it matters for Fed hike pricing, gold and silver.
• 13:30 UTC USD Nonfarm Productivity Forecast 2.5% after 1.4%. It lands with claims and unit labor costs and feeds the same read on US labour costs.
• 13:30 UTC CHF SNB Chairman Schlegel speech After hot October CPI, the desk sees a repeat of his 'won't hesitate' message as largely priced. Explicit hike or FX-sales signalling, or a 'temporary inflation' framing, would move USDCHF and EURCHF.
• 13:50 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech Her December hike conviction will be measured against the roughly 82% priced, and any lean against it hits the dollar's rebound.
• 15:30 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech The question is whether he repeats Tuesday's 'further hikes may be needed' line or stresses flat GDP and weak manufacturing, with USDCAD near its 1.3941 September low.
• 15:40 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech December hike language from the chief economist, ahead of Lagarde, with EURUSD exposed.
• 16:00 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech A December hike looks largely priced, so the desk sees more room for EUR downside on any hedging than upside on hawkish confirmation.
• 17:45 UTC EUR ECB's Nagel speech A further read on ECB December conviction late in the European day, with EURUSD and EURCHF exposed.

Watch whether the 13:30 UTC claims and labour-cost data extend the dollar's rebound into Lagarde at 16:00 UTC and Friday's NFP.