Dollar leads into payrolls as gold and Aussie slide; yen gives back wage-beat gains

London Open, Friday, 6 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices average -3.41% over 24h and oil is +5.15%, but Asia brought a tech rebound, and the haven signals are split: JPY is firm at 0.59, CHF is soft at -0.13 and gold is -1.91% over 24h.

In short

The dollar has replaced the yen at the top of the 24h strength table, USD 0.83 vs JPY 0.59, with AUD last at -1.41. Since the Asia Open note, EURUSD is -0.42% at 1.11829, AUDUSD -0.66% at 0.6885 and gold -1.25% at 4045.93.
Japan's wage print was hot, with Labor Cash Earnings at 4.6% vs 3.8% expected, but the yen did not hold the gain. USDJPY dipped to 157.256 and is now 158.131, +0.53% since the last note. Tech found a floor overnight: USTEC is +1.44% and JP225 +0.65% since the last note, though US500 is still -4.18% over 24h.
Europe opens with euro-area industrial production at 07:00 UTC, then Williams and Lane at 09:30 and euro-area retail sales at 10:00. US payrolls (f/c 65K, prior 29K) and Canada's jobs report land together at 13:30 UTC, and BoJ Governor Ueda speaks at 16:00 UTC.

Themes

Dollar rebuilds ahead of a low payrolls bar

USD now tops the strength table at 0.83, up from a late-September low. Rebounding yields and hawkish Fed talk have kept December-hike bets alive, pulling EURUSD below 1.1200 and gold to 4045.93. With consensus at 65K and this week's ADP (86K vs 69K) and claims (189K) both firm, our desks see more room for a soft print to unwind the dollar's rebuild than for a beat to extend it.

Hot Japan wages, but USDJPY is back at 158

The 4.6% Labor Cash Earnings beat strengthened BoJ December-hike bets, yet USDJPY recovered from 157.256 to 158.131 as the dollar steadied. The pair is still inside the 156.08–159.03 D1 range. Our JPY desk says Ueda at 16:00 UTC needs to validate December to extend yen gains, and Fed-hike pricing is cushioning dips.

Antipodeans at the bottom of the table

AUD is weakest at -1.41 and NZD sits at -0.53. AUDUSD is at 0.6885 after the failed 0.70 break, with the RBA's December pause signal in the price. NZDUSD is at 0.55623, near its 0.5560-0.5564 18-month low, after a weak jobs report; Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk.

What moved

XAU/USD −1.25% Our gold desk says it failed to hold above $4,100 in Asia as Treasury yields rebounded from two-month lows and the dollar firmed, in line with the 'Gold weakens further below $4,050 on firmer USD' headline.
USTEC +1.44% The platform flagged a 1.6% jump in an hour at 00:36 UTC alongside JP225 and US500, but there is no single clear driver in our news feed for the rebound.
AUD/USD −0.66% The AUD desk points to the less hawkish RBA guidance (6-3 split, December pause signalled) and a cautious-market dollar bid; the pair has given up the 0.70 handle after failing at 0.7022.
USD/JPY +0.53% Per our JPY desk, the pair touched a weekly low near 157.25 in Asia, then bounced toward 158.00 as the dollar steadied ahead of NFP, despite the 4.6% wage beat.
EUR/USD −0.42% The dollar's rebound on rebuilt Fed December-hike bets pushed the euro below 1.1200. Our EUR desk notes that ECB hawkishness is largely priced and getting little reaction.

Releases

JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) 4.6%. The beat added to BoJ December-hike bets, but the yen bid faded. USDJPY moved from a 157.256 low to 158.131, +0.53% since the last note, as the dollar firmed.

Levels to watch

EUR/USD 1.1175 D1 support inside the five-week 1.1104–1.1276 range; price at 1.11829 is just above it after the H4 1.1212 neckline gave way.
USD/JPY 158.00 H4 pivot that the lower highs off 158.77 have been compressing toward; price is pressing it at 158.131.
AUD/USD 0.6894 Floor of the D1 0.6894–0.7068 range in place since early October; price is trading just beneath it, with a 0.687 day low.
GBP/USD 1.3415 First H4 support below the 1.3448 neckline after the twin cap at 1.3500; price is just above it at 1.34176, close to the 1.3410-1.3420 200-DMA zone our GBP desk flags.

Ahead

07:00 UTC EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) Flat output is expected after a 2% prior; it is a second-tier input for EURUSD, which is sitting below 1.1200.
09:30 UTC USD Fed's Williams speech It is the last Fed read on December-hike odds before payrolls; the dollar, gold and USDJPY are exposed.
09:30 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech The question is whether Lane joins the December-hike chorus or pushes back; extra hawkishness has barely moved EURUSD this week.
10:00 UTC EUR Retail Sales (YoY) Consensus is 0.6% vs 0.8% prior, a read on euro-area demand while an ECB December hike is largely priced.
13:30 UTC USD Nonfarm Payrolls The bar is 65K after 29K, and ADP, JOLTS and claims all beat this week. Our desks see a soft print as the bigger surprise for the dollar, gold and the dollar pairs.
13:30 UTC USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Consensus is 0.3% vs 0.1% prior, and wages carry extra weight after the -0.7% unit labor costs print; Fed-hike pricing and gold are exposed.
13:30 UTC USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) Consensus is 2.9% vs 3% prior; a miss would test the December-hike pricing the dollar has just rebuilt.
13:30 UTC CAD Unemployment Rate Seen steady at 4.2%; it rounds out the jobs picture for Fed December-hike odds.
13:30 UTC CAD Net Change in Employment Consensus is 13.6K after -68.3K, released at the same time as the US report; USDCAD will trade the gap between the two prints.
13:30 UTC CAD Unemployment Rate Seen at 6.5%; a weak print would undercut Macklem's hike signalling, given soft Canadian growth.
15:00 UTC USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Consensus is 48, alongside 1-year inflation expectations (prior 4.7%), which feed the oil-driven inflation story behind the Fed-hike bets.
16:00 UTC JPY BoJ Governor Ueda speech December-hike bets are built after the minutes and the 4.6% wage print, so our JPY desk says the bar is high for Ueda; USDJPY and the yen crosses are exposed.

Until the next note, watch whether the dollar's Asia rebuild, with EURUSD under 1.1200 and USDJPY back at 158, survives a 65K payrolls bar that this week's firm labor data has made look low.