WTI slips toward its $84.25 low and metals ease as FX coils into 13:30 UTC US CPI

London Open, Tuesday, 10 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Risk-on: The 24h gauge still reads risk-on, with indices averaging +2.13%, oil -4.93% and the havens soft (JPY -0.08, CHF -0.15), but Asia paused: JP225 is -0.95% and USTEC -0.21% since the last note.

In short

• Asia was quiet in FX, with EURUSD ranging 0.25x a normal day and USDJPY 0.28x. Commodities did the moving: XTIUSD is -1.27% since the Asia Open at 85.45, XAGUSD -0.95% and XAUUSD -0.54%.
• Japan data disappointed: the current account was 2372B¥ vs 3354.4B¥ forecast and household spending -6.7% vs -3.1%. USDJPY is barely changed at 157.976, held by a hawkish BoJ and intervention risk. China's $105.28B trade surplus (f/c $125.8B) left AUD subdued.
• Europe is a countdown to US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline YoY f/c 3.9%, core YoY f/c 2.8%). BoE's Breeden and ECB's De Guindos speak at 08:30 UTC and Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC.

Themes

CPI countdown with hikes already priced

December Fed hike odds sit near 84% after the 165K payrolls beat, and DXY is consolidating around 101.70, below 102.00. Several desk digests see the CPI risk as asymmetric: a hot print mostly confirms pricing, while an in-line or soft core figure has more room to move USD. That matters given crowded spec shorts in EUR (-157.8K) and AUD (-129.5K).

Oil's de-escalation slide tests the 10-week low

XTIUSD is at 85.45, down 4.93% over 24h and 5.86% on the week, just above the $84.25 10-week low. Trump's Iran comments and Qatar-mediated talks drove the drop. Rubio calling Iran's demands 'unacceptable' and continued strikes keep two-way headline risk alive. Lower crude has supported EUR and AUD and weighed on CAD, where USDCAD sits at 1.41181.

Europe's morning: central bank speakers and soft data

BoE's Breeden and Lombardelli and ECB's Sleijpen, De Guindos, Cipollone and Lane all speak inside the window, with EUR (0.39) and GBP (0.24) behind only NZD (0.48) in the strength table. Early European data were mixed: French Q3 unemployment came in at 8.2% vs 8.4% forecast and Dutch October CPI rose to 3.7%. EURGBP is barely moving at 0.83485 in a range 0.25x normal.

What moved

• XTI/USD −1.27% US-Iran deal hopes kept draining the war premium after Trump called fresh strikes 'highly unlikely', leaving WTI weak below $85 and near its $84.25 10-week low.
• XAG/USD −0.95% Silver tagged a 1.5-week high at $53.70-53.75 in Asia, then pulled back on modest USD buying to hold around $53.
• XAU/USD −0.54% Gold gave back part of Monday's rally after a second failed test of the $4,146-4,150 resistance, on a modest USD uptick and pre-CPI caution.
• JP225 −0.95% There is no single clear driver in our news feed; the index has slipped from its 60946 day high to 60298 despite a broadly firm Asian equity tone.
• BTC/USD −0.77% There is no single clear driver in our news feed; the desk notes a hawkish pre-CPI overhang and stale BTC-specific newsflow.

Releases

• JPY Current Account n.s.a. 2372B¥. This was part of a run of weak Japan data that took back the yen's Monday gains, but USDJPY is only +0.05% on the day in a range 0.28x normal.
• GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) 1.1%. The slight miss drew little reaction, and GBPUSD is +0.05% on the day at 1.34482.
• CNY Trade Balance USD 105.28B$. The smaller surplus left AUD subdued, with AUDUSD -0.06% on the day at 0.69219.
• CNY Exports (YoY) 35.2%. The export beat did little for China-sensitive FX, and AUDJPY is flat on the day at 109.349.
• CNY Imports (YoY) 41.6%. The import surge is what shrank the surplus, and AUD was subdued rather than lifted, with AUDUSD -0.02% since the last note.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1234 First D1 resistance just above the 1.12271 last, inside a five-week 1.1104–1.1273 range beneath a falling EMA50.
• GBP/USD 1.3451 H4 resistance sitting just above the 1.34482 last and matching the area GBPUSD has held near through Asia, with the 1.35027 cap beyond.
• USD/JPY 158.77 Upper D1 resistance inside the 156.08–159.03 six-week range, overlapping the 158.68–158.70 zone where the desk flags intervention risk.
• XAU/USD 4,115.00 D1 support just below the 4119.7 last, after two H4 rejections at 4,146-4,147; the 4227.28 lower high is the D1 resistance.

Ahead

• 08:30 UTC GBP BoE's Breeden speech The desk flags dovish BoE-speak as the main GBP-specific downside risk while three more hikes are priced, so GBPUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
• 08:30 UTC EUR ECB's De Guindos speech This is one of several ECB voices today, with EURUSD holding near 1.1220 and Eurozone HICP due Wednesday.
• 09:00 UTC USD Fed's Waller speech It is the last Fed read before CPI; any steer on a December hike (~84% priced) feeds straight into USD, gold and US indices.
• 12:30 UTC GBP BoE's Lombardelli speech A second BoE test of hike pricing lands an hour before US CPI; GBPUSD is sitting just under 1.3451 H4 resistance.
• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average It gives an early labour read 15 minutes before CPI after Friday's 165K payrolls beat (previous 16.8K, no forecast).
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) It is forecast at 0.3% after 0.6%, and it is the day's main driver for USD crosses, XAUUSD and US indices.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) It is forecast at 3.9% from 3.7%; the desk's digests note a hot print has less room to add to ~84% December hike pricing than a soft one has to unwind it.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core is forecast to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%, and an in-line or soft core figure is the scenario the USD digest flags for a larger unwind of hike bets.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) It is forecast at 2.8% from 2.6%, and with crowded EUR, AUD and GBP shorts it sets the tone for USD across the majors.
• 16:45 UTC EUR ECB's Lane speech The ECB chief economist's read lands after CPI, as EURUSD tests the top of its five-week range.

Waller at 09:00 UTC is the last Fed voice before the 13:30 UTC CPI print, and whether WTI holds its $84.25 10-week low will shape the USD and inflation story into the release.