USDJPY pushes above its 159 range top as the dollar bid extends; no US data today

New York Open, Wednesday, 11 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up an average 0.32% over 24h and CHF is the weakest major at -0.5, which reads risk-friendly, but European benchmarks slipped through London (UK100 -0.36%, GER30 -0.22% since the last note) while NAS100 holds a 1.87% day gain.

In short

• London extended the dollar bid. USD leads our strength table at 0.78, USDJPY is at 159.189, above the 159.032 D1 range top, and USDCHF is up 0.62% on the day with CHF last at -0.5.
• German final HICP matched forecasts at 2.8% y/y and -0.1% m/m, giving the euro no offset. EURUSD is down 0.2% since the London Open note to 1.11329, sitting on its H4 swing low. Metals gave back part of the Asia bounce: XAUUSD is down 0.42% to 4043.16.
• Our look-ahead window has no scheduled events, so Fed pricing, yields and US-Iran headlines steer the US day. The next US tests are Thursday's jobless claims (f/c 195K) and Friday's core PPI y/y (f/c 5%).

Themes

Dollar bid runs on yields, not data

USD is up against every major on our 24h strength table at 0.78, while CHF (-0.5) and GBP (-0.18) bring up the rear. December hike pricing is up to about 28.5bp, which fully prices 25bp and leaves roughly 15% odds of 50bp. MUFG and Commerzbank doubt that further gains come easily without data that strengthens the 50bp case. With nothing scheduled today, rates and equities are steering the dollar into Thursday's claims and Friday's core PPI.

Yen pressed toward the intervention zone

USDJPY is at 159.189, within a pip of its 159.192 day high and through the D1 range top that has held since late September. The JPY digest notes that the rate gap already sits in the price, so further yen weakness runs into the 160 area that MUFG and ING flag for intervention risk. Any MOF verbal warning is the unscheduled risk.

Oil firms as metals fade the Asia squeeze

USOil and UKOil are both up 1.11% since the last note, as scepticism over US-Iran talks offsets a surprise API crude build. Metals gave back part of the Asia rebound: XAGUSD is down 0.32% since the last note but still up 2.69% on the day, while XAUUSD is down 0.42% and stuck below the $4,050 area.

What moved

• USD/JPY +0.23% Hot US CPI and Treasury yields near 5% widened the rate gap, lifting USDJPY to its highest since mid-October; MUFG and ING flag 160 as the line where intervention risk rises sharply.
• USD/CHF +0.62% December Fed hike odds near 85% and fading Middle East haven demand have drained support for the franc, per the CHF digest.
• EUR/USD −0.20% Final German HICP confirmed 2.8% y/y and gave the euro no offset to the CPI-driven dollar bid, leaving the pair testing the 1.1110 area that ING flags as the range floor.
• XAU/USD −0.42% Gold keeps failing to hold above $4,050 with a December hike fully priced and 10y yields above 5%, per the gold digest.
• GBP/USD −0.17% The bounce toward 1.3355, helped by US-Iran diplomacy hopes, faded as USD bids returned, leaving the pair pinned just above 1.3300 per the GBP digest.

Releases

• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 2.8%. An in-line final print gave the euro no support, and EURUSD has slipped 0.2% since the London Open note to 1.11329.
• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) -0.1%. No surprise for markets to trade; EURUSD's day loss has widened to 0.28% as the dollar bid set the tone.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 159.032 Top of the 156.08–159.03 range in place since late September; price is now trading just above it.
• EUR/USD 1.1131 Swing low in the lower half of the 1.1104–1.1273 range; price is sitting on it after a lower high at 1.1251.
• GBP/USD 1.3312 Latest lower low in the H4 downtrend from the 1.3503 top; price at 1.33141 is just above it.
• USD/CHF 0.8300 First H4 resistance in a sequence of higher highs and higher lows off the 0.8127-0.8133 double bottom; the 0.82986 day high sits just below it.

Watch whether USDJPY holds above the 159.032 D1 range top as it approaches the 160 area flagged for intervention risk, and whether any Japanese official comments on FX.