Oil premium rebuilt, dollar at YTD highs; gold and Nasdaq slip into CPI week

Daily Wrap, Monday, 12 October 2026. Published 11:13 UTC.

Mixed: Risk appetite tilted defensive: indices averaged -0.17% over 24h and oil rose 1.11%, but gold fell 0.54% and CHF was soft (-0.33), so the haven bid went almost entirely to the dollar.

In short

• WTI recovered its geopolitical premium. XTIUSD rose 2.85% on the day, from a 89.57 low to 93.69, as Russian strikes undercut the energy-ceasefire story and Houthi attacks hit Riyadh.
• The dollar was the strongest major (strength 0.36). The FX day only rolled at 17:00, so these are 24h moves: EURUSD -0.43% to 1.11543 on French fiscal stress. NZD (-0.35) and CHF (-0.33) were the weakest majors.
• Gold failed at 4217.05 and USTEC fell 0.82%. Overnight brings the RBA minutes and euro-area HICP, then Waller, all ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.

Themes

Oil shock feeds the dollar and hike bets

The market quickly priced the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, then unwound that move within one session as strikes resumed and Houthi/Hormuz risk escalated. Oil is now the main channel for both inflation fears and haven USD demand: the dollar pressed its YTD highs near 102.60, while gold failed at the top of its two-week range. Cleveland Fed's Hammack added fuel by calling for higher rates as inflation pressures broaden.

French fiscal stress keeps the euro pinned

EURUSD closed the day at 1.11543, sitting on D1 support with daily RSI at 22, and EURGBP traded at 0.84459 near its YTD low. Specs have sharply rebuilt euro shorts, so tomorrow's HICP and any French budget or spread headlines meet a one-sided market. Both a hot print and budget relief would hit a crowded position.

Antipodeans and CHF carry the weak end

NZD (-0.35) and CHF (-0.33) were the weakest majors over 24h. NZDUSD sits at 0.5587, just above the 0.5580 floor, after six straight weekly losses. CHF is again being used as a funding currency, which leaves USDCHF (+0.55% over 24h) pressing its H4 range ceiling. AUD faces the RBA minutes with specs heavily short.

Everything routes through Wednesday's CPI

Consensus is already hot at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY on the headline, so the desk sees core (f/c 0.2%) as the swing variable for October hike pricing. A core beat would extend USD strength against gold, silver and BTCUSD. A soft print meets trimmed gold longs and short-covering CTAs. Waller and Bowman speak before the release.

What moved

• XTI/USD +2.85% Several things restored the supply-risk premium and overshadowed OPEC's demand-forecast cut: fresh Russian strikes on Ukrainian power facilities cast doubt on Trump's energy ceasefire, Houthis struck Riyadh's King Khalid airport, and tankers ran into trouble near Oman/Hormuz.
• XAU/USD −0.50% Gold reversed from its Asian high near 4217 after the oil shock and hawkish comments from Cleveland Fed's Hammack lifted December hike odds to about 90% and pushed the dollar to its YTD highs.
• XAG/USD −0.93% Silver slipped as the Riyadh airport attack and talk of US-Saudi retaliation against the Houthis revived oil and inflation risk, and CME October hike odds edged up to 19.4%.
• USTEC −0.82% No single clear driver in our news feed. The drop came alongside the oil-driven risk aversion and firmer Fed hike bets the desk flagged, while US30 held up.
• EUR/USD −0.43% French political deadlock and debt worries weighed on the euro across crosses, EUR/GBP printed a YTD low, and the dollar stayed bid on haven demand.
• NZD/USD −0.48% Resurging Middle East tensions lifted oil and soured risk appetite, and high oil is seen as a drag on NZ growth. That kept the kiwi pinned just above its 17-month low.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1154 D1 support in an extended downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high. Spot closed the day right on it with RSI at 22.
• USD/JPY 158.75 H4 resistance at the top of the two-week range, with the 159.03 D1 lower high just above. Higher lows have been building since 156.38.
• USD/CHF 0.8349 H4 range ceiling that spot is pressing, with 0.8366 and 0.8382 stacked above. Higher lows have held since 0.8227.
• NZD/USD 0.5580 D1 swing low and the 17-month floor per the desk digest. Price is compressing in a tight range just above it with daily RSI at 28.
• XAU/USD 4,217.00 D1 resistance at the top of the two-week 4105–4217 range. Today's high stalled there before the reversal, and the structure remains lower highs below the EMA50.

Ahead

• 23:01 UTC GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) This is the first UK read of the week, expected at 0.7% after 0.5%. GBP is firm on the crosses but boxed against the dollar, and specs hold sizable net shorts.
• 23:30 UTC AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence There is no forecast and the previous reading was -5.2%. It sets the domestic tone for AUD minutes before the RBA minutes.
• 00:30 UTC AUD RBA Meeting Minutes November hike odds have already collapsed and AUD spec shorts jumped to -98.6K, so the minutes mainly test whether the RBA sounds hawkish on 5.3% inflation expectations. AUDUSD and AUDJPY are most exposed.
• 06:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The forecast is 3.3%, the same as last time, and it lands on a heavily shorted euro (CFTC net -99.3K). An in-line or soft print fits the grind lower, while a hot one meets a crowded short in EURUSD and EURGBP.
• 06:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) The forecast is 0.6% after 0.6%. It is the companion to the headline print, and EUR crosses will react to the pair together.
• 07:45 UTC USD Fed's Waller speech October hike odds sit near 18–19% with December about 90% priced. Any signal on October ahead of Wednesday's CPI feeds directly into the dollar, gold, silver and BTCUSD.
• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average The previous reading was 23.75K. It is a high-frequency labour check that can nudge Fed hike pricing in the run-up to CPI.

Until the next briefing, watch whether WTI holds its rebuilt premium and how Waller frames October hike risk, the two inputs behind the dollar's push to YTD highs heading into Wednesday's CPI.