UK Q3 GDP lands into a firm dollar; USDJPY at 159.85 presses the 160.00 line

London Open, Thursday, 12 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Mixed: The 24h index average is up only 0.16% while gold is down 2.13%. JPY (-0.08) and CHF (-0.16) are both soft, so this is a rates-driven dollar bid rather than a flight to safety.

In short

• Asia added to the dollar's lead. USD tops the 24h strength table at 0.63, up from 0.58 in the last note, and NZD is now bottom at -0.43. USDJPY edged up 0.1% to 159.85, with a day high of 159.874, just under the 160.00 level our JPY desk flags as the intervention line.
• Tokyo had a heavy session: JPN225 fell 1.56% since the Asia Open and NAS100 is down 0.4%. GER30 is up 0.64% into the European open. XAUUSD slipped to 3968.34 and is testing H4 support at 3968.75.
• UK Q3 GDP is out at 07:00 UTC (QoQ f/c 0.7%, YoY 1.9%, MoM 0%). US jobless claims follow at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC. Australian consumer inflation expectations held at 5.3% and gave AUD no lift.

Themes

Dollar bid rests on the 25bp-vs-50bp debate

A December Fed hike is near fully priced, so further USD gains need data or Fedspeak that builds the 50bp case. Our desks note EUR, AUD and NZD momentum is stretched near oversold, which leaves room for profit-taking on any soft signal. Today's claims and Fed speakers come before Friday's core PPI test.

USDJPY at the 160.00 line as Tokyo stocks slide

USDJPY made a day high of 159.874, just under the 160.00 level MUFG says makes intervention 'a much greater prospect', after Mimura called FX moves 'too rapid'. BoJ's Asada leaned cautious on further hikes, which dents December BoJ odds. JPN225 dropped 1.56% since the last note, a sharp contrast with GER30's gain.

UK GDP meets a pound at four-week lows

GBPUSD is at 1.32562 after a third down session, driven by the dollar rather than UK weakness. A strong 0.7% QoQ print is consensus and BoE tightening is already priced. That makes the reaction to a miss or a soft monthly read the bigger risk for the pair.

What moved

• JPN225 −1.56% There is no single clear driver in our news feed for the Tokyo sell-off; US tech futures were also softer over the same window, with NAS100 down 0.4%.
• USD/JPY +0.10% Hot-CPI Fed repricing keeps the pair bid near its highest since September 2, but Mimura's 'too rapid' warning and the intervention risk MUFG flags at 160.00 have kept gains small.
• EUR/USD −0.16% Fed-ECB divergence and the 25bp-vs-50bp December Fed debate opened by Waller keep EUR below its broken 1.1100 range floor, with a session low of 1.10661.
• XAU/USD −0.62% A dollar at April-2025 highs and US 10y yields above 5% on firming Fed hike bets keep gold depressed below $4,000, per our XAUUSD digest.
• GER30 +0.64% There is no single clear driver in our news feed; GER30 is outperforming US futures, with SPX500 down 0.23% over the same window.

Releases

• AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations 5.3%. AUDUSD has slipped 0.15% since the last note to 0.68319; our AUD desk notes the steady print gave no relief because the market reads the RBA as done tightening.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 160.00 H4 resistance and the psychological intervention line, with the 159.94 H4 level just beneath; the day high so far is 159.874.
• EUR/USD 1.10661 H4 support at the new lower low printed after the 1.1104 range floor broke; H4 RSI is 28.9, in oversold territory.
• GBP/USD 1.3250 First H4 support after the lower low below 1.3272; the day low of 1.32498 briefly dipped under it, and H4 RSI is 27.1.
• XAU/USD 3,968.75 H4 support after the double top confirmed below the 4027.52 neckline; price is at the level with a day low of 3966.51, and the next listed support is 3870.26.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Consensus is 0.7% after 0.5%. Our GBP desk sees a beat only slowing the USD-driven slide, while a miss has more room to extend GBPUSD losses; EURGBP and UK100 are also exposed.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Expected at 1.9% from 1.4%, confirming a pick-up in growth; with BoE tightening already priced after the hike to 4%, the reaction runs mainly through GBPUSD.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) The September monthly read is forecast flat at 0% after 0.1%; our GBP desk flags a soft MoM as the outcome most aligned with the dollar's momentum.
• 07:00 UTC GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) Forecast at -0.5% after 1.2%; it adds detail to the GDP release for GBP pairs.
• 09:00 UTC EUR Economic Bulletin Our EUR desk says a durable rebound needs hawkish ECB guidance beyond December, and Lane's 'high bar' on directional guidance makes that harder; EURUSD and EURJPY are exposed.
• 13:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims The first US data of the day is forecast at 195K after 189K; it feeds the 25bp-vs-50bp Fed debate driving USD pairs, gold and BTCUSD.
• 14:00 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech This opens a heavy Fed-speaker slate; any endorsement of or pushback on a 50bp December move is the main swing factor for the dollar, XAUUSD and USDJPY near 160.00.
• 15:00 UTC USD Fed's Barr speech It is another read on December hike size, with the dollar at an 18-month high and US 10y yields near 5%.
• 15:30 UTC EUR ECB's Vujčić speech An ECB December hike is largely priced after Nagel called it 'obvious', so any signal on the path beyond December matters most for EURUSD.
• 16:30 UTC USD Fed's Goolsbee speech It closes the European-hours Fedspeak; the tone on 50bp shapes how USD, gold and crypto head into Friday's core PPI (f/c 5%).

Until the US open, watch whether UK GDP moves GBPUSD away from the 1.325 area and whether USDJPY stays capped below 160.00 as Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC steer the 25bp-versus-50bp debate.