US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC test a dollar that has erased its CPI pop

New York Open, Thursday, 15 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: The 24h gauge still leans risk-off, with indices averaging -1.36%, JPY strength at 0.46 and gold +0.27%. London was steadier, though: FRA40 is +0.98%, UK100 +0.65% and US500 +0.19% since the last note.

In short

• The 12:30 UTC US cluster is the main event. It includes Retail Sales (f/c 0.3%), the Control Group (no forecast, previous 1.4%), PPI m/m (f/c 0.5%) and core PPI y/y (f/c 4.4%). October hike odds have already bled from ~42% after CPI to ~29%.
• London extended the AUD sell-off. AUDUSD is -0.51% since the London Open note at 0.69155, AUDJPY is -0.5% and EURAUD is +0.51% at 1.6217. AUD is bottom of 24h strength at -1.41.
• UK August data beat across the board: GDP 0.1% vs -0.1% and manufacturing 1.2% vs -0.1%. Eurozone industrial production missed at -0.5% vs 0%. European stocks firmed, with FRA40 +0.98% since the last note, and WTI is +1.29% at 95.27.

Themes

A faded dollar walks into the data

USD has handed back its hot-CPI pop. The digest has DXY back near 102.00 from a ~102.95/103.00 YTD high, and October hike odds have slid to ~29%. Moves have tracked Treasury yields rather than data surprises, and the market sold into a hot CPI, so the reaction to beats is as important as the prints themselves. EURUSD is +0.53% and USDCHF -0.58% on the day, but both were flat since the London Open.

AUD stays the weak link across the board

AUD's strength score of -1.41 is well below every other major. AUDNZD is -1.04% on the day on a range 2.45 times typical, and EURAUD is +1.36% on a range 2.76 times typical. The jobs detail is less bad than the headline: full-time jobs rose 34.4K and all of the loss was part-time. The digest sees US data or Warsh, not domestic news, as the next driver.

Europe firm, US tech still nursing AI losses

European indices led in London. FRA40 is +0.98% and UK100 +0.65% since the last note, with UK100 +2.27% on the week. The AI-led sell-off still shows in the 24h numbers: USTEC is -2.88%, NVDA -2.42% and JP225 -4.92%. Deutsche Bank tied the drop to hot CPI and AI fears, and that sell-off is what pulled yields and the USD lower.

What moved

• AUD/USD −0.51% The September jobs miss (employment -39.3K vs +20K forecast, unemployment 4.7%) is unwinding the RBA-hike premium built after the hawkish minutes, and the platform flagged repeated AUD-cross drops through the session.
• XTI/USD +1.29% Houthi vows to keep hitting Saudi oil facilities, IRGC strikes on ships and a large API crude draw (-11.1M vs +1.9M expected) offset reports of shadow-fleet sanction relief, with a +1.14% hourly move flagged at 09:01 UTC.
• XAG/USD +1.48% Silver is extending its bounce off the $55.40 post-CPI hold on a softer USD and lower Treasury yields, ending a three-day losing streak.
• FRA40 +0.98% There is no single clear driver in our news feed; the platform flagged a 0.5% rise in the hour to 07:06 UTC.
• GBP/USD +0.13% A broad UK August data beat added to the USD-led bounce off the 1.3135 YTD low, though Pill's pushback on a multi-hike path tempered the reaction.

Releases

• GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) 1.2%. This was part of a broad UK beat that supported sterling: GBPUSD is +0.13% and EURGBP -0.13% since the London Open note.
• GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) 0.1%. The beat helped GBPUSD build on its rebound to 1.32569, but BoE Pill's caution on a series of hikes kept the move contained.
• GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.8%. It reinforced the UK beat alongside GDP and manufacturing, with GBPUSD +0.5% on the day.
• EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) 3.4%. The in-line print drew no visible reaction; EURUSD is unchanged (0%) since the last note.
• EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) -0.5%. The miss knocked EURGBP back below 0.8460 from about 0.8480, while EURUSD showed no immediate reaction.

Levels to watch

• AUD/USD 0.6903 This is the next D1 support below the 0.6935 floor of the two-week 0.6935–0.7000 range. Price is now trading beneath that floor, inside a downtrend of lower highs since Sep 9.
• EUR/USD 1.1241 This is H4 lower-high resistance in the early-October downtrend. Today's high of 1.12408 stalled right at it.
• XAU/USD 4,161.75 This is the first H4 resistance inside the 4070–4227 range. Today's high of 4161.64 sits just beneath it.
• USD/JPY 157.58 This is the H4 range floor under the flat 159.00 cap. Today's low of 157.584 tested it, with price now below both EMAs.

Ahead

• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales (MoM) The forecast is 0.3% after 1.2% previously. A strong print could rebuild October hike premium from a lower base, which matters for the USD crosses, gold and US indices.
• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales Control Group There is no forecast and the previous was 1.4%. The GDP-relevant core of consumer spending feeds directly into Treasury yields, which have been driving the USD this week.
• 12:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) The forecast is 4.4% vs 4.6% previously. After a hot CPI, a firm core PPI would re-test the market's decision to fade that inflation surprise, with USDJPY, XAUUSD and USTEC exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (MoM) The forecast is 0.5% vs 0.4% previously. A hot headline would put pressure on gold and silver, whose rebounds rest on lower yields.
• 12:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims The forecast is 200K vs 197K previously; it is a secondary read on labour-market tightness, landing in the same 12:30 UTC slot.
• 17:15 UTC NZD RBNZ's Breman speech Conway called the October 28 decision 'completely open'. Explicit confirmation from Breman is what NZDUSD needs to hold its bounce, and AUDNZD is exposed.
• 20:30 UTC USD Fed's Hammack speech Fedspeak has been moving USDCHF and October hike pricing more than data, so her tone after the 12:30 UTC prints matters for the USD.
• 21:30 UTC NZD Business NZ PMI The previous reading was 53.1. It is a late-session read for NZD ahead of Q3 CPI next week.

The test until the next note is whether the 12:30 UTC Retail Sales and PPI prints move Treasury yields enough to reverse the post-CPI dollar fade, before Breman at 17:15 UTC and Hammack at 20:30 UTC.