Dollar slips through Asia, oil nears $100; UK jobs data opens the European day

London Open, Tuesday, 20 October 2026. Published 06:00 UTC.

Mixed: Equities are heavy (indices average -0.76% over 24h), but haven demand is absent. Gold is down 1.4%, JPY (-0.10) and CHF (-0.09) are among the weakest, and oil-linked CAD (0.33) and NZD (0.29) lead the strength table.

In short

• The dollar lost ground across Asia, with the DXY still below 102.00. USDJPY fell 0.29% since the Asia Open note to 158.139, NZDUSD rose 0.31%, GBPUSD 0.20% and EURUSD 0.17% to 1.12311. Over 24h the yen and the dollar are now tied as the weakest majors (-0.10).
• Oil kept climbing on Hormuz supply risk: XTIUSD is up 0.73% to 99.96, at the day's high. Gold slipped another 0.20% to 4125.96, still under $4,150. JP225 fell 1.1% over the session.
• UK labour data lands at 06:00 UTC: ILO unemployment f/c 4.9%, claimant count change f/c 19.4K, pay ex-bonus f/c 3.6%. A November BoE hike is heavily priced going in. ZEW follows at 09:00 UTC and US housing data from 12:30 UTC.

Themes

Dollar drifts lower; euro holds 1.12 despite France

The DXY sits around 101.80, below 102.00, as traders lock in a Fed hold, and USDCHF is down 0.20% to 0.82516. EURUSD is up 0.17% to 1.12311 even with the OAT-Bund spread above 150bp, so euro weakness is showing mainly on the crosses. EURGBP sits at 0.84239, near its 0.8403 16-month low, while CFTC euro shorts have deepened to -137.6K.

UK jobs: crowded positioning, two-way risk

Markets price a 25bp November BoE hike and about 100bp over 12 months, while CFTC sterling shorts have grown to -£107K. A soft labour print risks unwinding hike bets, and a hawkish beat could squeeze shorts, so the desk expects an outsized reaction either way. Wednesday's CPI (f/c 3.4% vs 3.1%) is the follow-up test.

Oil near $100 lifts CAD, stocks soft

XTIUSD is at 99.96 on Hormuz supply risk, and CAD tops the strength table (0.33). USDCAD is down 0.20% to 1.40781, below 1.4094 D1 support, with H4 RSI at 28. Equities are heavy: JP225 is down 1.1% since the last note and USTEC 0.35%, while FRA40 (-1.39%) and UK100 (-0.68%) are lower on the day into the cash open.

What moved

• USD/JPY −0.29% Broad USD softness on Fed-pause pricing, with the DXY back below 102.00, pulled the pair off the 158.50 area it had been pinned to.
• NZD/USD +0.31% The Kiwi extended its three-day rally on the softer dollar and sits just under the 0.5690 late-September highs, with Q3 CPI (f/c 0.8% q/q) and a heavily priced RBNZ hike ahead.
• GBP/USD +0.20% Sterling firmed into the UK jobs data as the USD softened, helped by diverging Fed-BoE expectations and euro weakness on the crosses.
• XTI/USD +0.73% Hormuz and Red Sea supply risk dominates, including IRGC warnings that the blockade could extend to Bab al-Mandeb and Suez. Price is now above the $99.00-99.30 one-month high zone the desk flagged.
• XAU/USD −0.20% Gold stays capped below $4,150 as 5%+ US 10y yields and $99 WTI keep a lid on rallies.

Releases

• CNY PBoC Interest Rate Decision 3%. An in-line hold and a non-event for the Antipodeans: the AUD dip after the decision faded, and AUDUSD is up 0.05% since the last note.

Levels to watch

• GBP/USD 1.3342 First H4 resistance; price is consolidating just beneath it after a run of higher lows since the 1.3137 false break.
• USD/JPY 158.07 Nearest H4 support, just under the 158.108 session low, inside the 157.55–158.95 range of higher lows.
• USD/CAD 1.4070 H4 support directly beneath price, with the pair in a lower-high, lower-low sequence and RSI at 28.
• NZD/USD 0.5688 D1 resistance at the late-September highs, with price just below after breaking out of its October base.

Ahead

• 06:00 UTC GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) F/c 4.9%, unchanged from 4.9%. With a 25bp November BoE hike to 4.00% priced and specs net short GBP, a miss either way could move GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPJPY sharply.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Claimant Count Change F/c 19.4K vs 27.8K previously. This is the early read on the labour market and feeds directly into how much BoE tightening stays priced.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) F/c 3.6% vs 3.5%. Pay growth is the BoE's key domestic inflation input ahead of Wednesday's CPI (f/c 3.4%).
• 06:00 UTC GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) F/c 3.8% vs 3.9%. It sits alongside the ex-bonus figure in the sterling rate-pricing read.
• 06:00 UTC EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) F/c 0.8% vs 1.1%. It is a secondary euro input while French fiscal stress remains the main driver.
• 09:00 UTC EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment F/c 24.2 vs 25.8. A weaker print would add to euro-specific pressure on EURUSD and the euro crosses.
• 09:00 UTC EUR ZEW Survey – Current Situation F/c -45 vs -47.1. It shows whether current conditions are stabilising as French unrest weighs on the euro.
• 10:00 UTC EUR ECB's Escrivá speech Any comment on French spreads or the policy path is a headline risk for EURUSD.
• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average No forecast; previous 24.75K. It is the first US labour read of the day, though the desk notes strong data is buying the dollar less than it should while equities wobble.
• 12:30 UTC USD Housing Starts (MoM) F/c 1.31M vs 1.275M. This adds to the US growth picture after NAHB missed, with USD and gold exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Building Permits (MoM) F/c 1.4M vs 1.394M. It is released alongside starts as a forward housing indicator.
• 14:00 UTC USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) F/c -0.5% vs 0.3%. It is the last US data point in the window, with yields and USD exposed.

Watch whether the UK jobs and pay numbers support the heavily priced November BoE hike, with GBPUSD just under 1.3342, and whether WTI holds near $100 on Hormuz headlines.