Soft NZ CPI knocks NZDUSD back under 0.5700; US futures slip into Tokyo

Asia Open, Thursday, 22 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Mixed: Risk appetite is mixed: indices are -0.08% on average over 24h, gold +0.2% and oil -0.32%, with CHF firm at 0.12 and JPY flat at -0.04 on strength, while the dollar is the weakest major at -0.14.

In short

• NZ Q3 CPI came in a tenth light on both measures: 3.7% y/y vs 3.8% forecast and 0.7% q/q vs 0.8%, also under the RBNZ's 3.9% projection. NZDUSD is back under 0.5700 at 0.56939 (-0.04% since the Wrap), and the desk sees ~80% Oct 28 hike pricing as stretched.
• US index futures have eased since the Wrap: USTEC -0.68%, US500 -0.39%, US30 -0.32%. JP225 is down 0.74% ahead of the Tokyo cash open. Gold has slipped 0.33% to 4126.71 and silver 0.62% to 57.6.
• The Asia calendar is thin. The Bank of Korea decides at 01:00 UTC (f/c hold at 3%). USDJPY sits at 158.157, inside its 157.50–159.00 range, ahead of Japan's September CPI on Thursday at 23:30 UTC (core f/c 2.1%).

Themes

NZ CPI miss puts RBNZ hike pricing to the test

Swaps carried ~80% odds of an Oct 28 hike to 3.00%, built on the RBNZ's 3.9% CPI projection; the 3.7% print removes that trigger. Inflation is still above the 1-3% band, so the desk sees a hike as still live and the risk as a repricing rather than a rout. Across the Tasman, RBA November hike odds sit near 60% after Hauser's remarks, and AUDNZD is up 0.05% since the Wrap.

Yen pinned in its range ahead of Thursday's CPI

USDJPY at 158.157 remains inside the 157.50–159.00 range. Hawkish BoJ talk from Deputy Governor Himino is offsetting intervention risk near the top of the range. Swaps price a December BoJ hike near 80%, so the desk sees Thursday's 23:30 UTC CPI (core f/c 2.1%) as the range test, with JP225 weaker into the open.

What moved

• NZD/USD −0.04% Q3 CPI undershot at 3.7% y/y vs 3.8% forecast and the RBNZ's 3.9% projection, knocking the pair off its four-week high and back under 0.5700.
• USTEC −0.68% No single clear driver in our news feed; the USD digest flags AI-credit wobbles (Coreweave bonds) as the live risk theme for US equities.
• JP225 −0.74% No single clear driver in our news feed; it is falling alongside softer US futures before the Tokyo cash open.
• XAU/USD −0.33% Gold is giving back part of its late bounce to ~$4,132, which the desk tied to oil easing on Iran-cargo news; WTI has since edged up 0.21%.

Releases

• NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) 0.7%. NZDUSD slipped back under 0.5700 on the release and sits at 0.56939, down 0.04% since the Wrap, while AUDNZD is up 0.05% at 1.2334.
• NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.7%. The miss against both the 3.8% consensus and the RBNZ's 3.9% projection left NZD softer, though the move is modest: NZDUSD is -0.01% on the day.

Levels to watch

• NZD/USD 0.5700 D1 resistance at the EMA50 test; price slipped back beneath it on the CPI release bar.
• AUD/USD 0.70126 H4 support at the prior high the pair broke above in its higher-high, higher-low sequence from 0.6894.
• XAU/USD 4,105.00 H4 range floor that lower highs within the 4066–4227 range have been pressing.

Ahead

• 01:00 UTC KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision A hold at 3% is the forecast, so any surprise would land mainly on KRW and regional Asian FX, which the desk notes has been resilient against a soft dollar.

Through Tokyo and Sydney, the key question is whether NZDUSD can reclaim 0.5700 or keeps failing below it as RBNZ speakers react to CPI landing under the 3.9% projection.