US GDP and core PCE hit at 08:30 ET, ECB at 13:15 GMT; metals slide deepens

New York Open, Thursday, 29 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: Indices are up 0.21% on average over 24h and JPY is the weakest major at -0.25, but CHF scores +0.19 and gold is down 0.49%, so there is no clean risk-on or risk-off signal ahead of the data.

In short

• The US block lands at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET): Q3 GDP f/c 3.2% (prev 2.2%), core PCE MoM f/c 0.3% and YoY f/c 3.1%, and jobless claims f/c 199K. The desk sees a December Fed hike as largely priced, so a soft core print has more room to move the dollar than a hot one.
• The ECB follows at 13:15 GMT, with the deposit rate f/c 2.5%, and Lagarde's press conference at 13:45. It comes days after the ECB said she will resign on Feb 7, 2027. EURUSD is up 0.07% since the last note at 1.11464, little moved by a weaker ESI (96.9 vs 97.5 f/c).
• London kept selling metals: XPTUSD fell 1.78% since the last note, and XAGUSD is down 2.26% on the day at 52.6, a fresh low. GOOGL is down 7.74% on the day after Alphabet signalled higher 2027 capex, US30 is down 0.65% since the last note, and CAD is the strongest major (score 0.5).

Themes

US data tests the post-Fed dollar recovery

The Fed's hold with two hike dissents left a December move largely priced. The desk also notes the dollar failed to follow higher Treasury yields. USD is soft on the strength board at -0.19, and the asymmetry into 12:30 UTC tilts slightly toward dollar downside on a soft core PCE, per the USD, GBP and AUD digests.

ECB decides under a Lagarde-exit cloud

A hold at 2.5% is priced, and December-hike odds have been trimmed by Rabobank and Commerzbank. The euro sits near 17-month lows against the dollar, with Lagarde's Feb 7, 2027 resignation adding political risk premium. EURUSD's range is just 0.64 of normal, which leaves the reaction to 13:15 GMT wide open.

AI capex shock hits silver and Alphabet

Alphabet's signal of significantly higher 2027 capex revived AI-investment risk-off flows. GOOGL is down 7.74% on the day and silver has broken to fresh lows, while MSFT is up 3.61%. The Gold/Silver ratio rising to 76.41 points to silver-specific weakness beyond the Fed story.

What moved

• GOOGL −7.74% Alphabet's signal of significantly higher 2027 capex revived AI-investment risk-off flows, per the desk's silver digest; today's range is 5.72 times a normal day.
• XAG/USD −2.26% The same Alphabet capex signal and a hawkish-hold Fed pushed silver through the $52.67 YTD low, and the Gold/Silver ratio jumped to 76.41 from 75.35.
• XPT/USD −1.78% There is no single clear driver for platinum in our news feed; it slid alongside silver, with today's range at 1.42 times normal.
• US30 −0.65% The platform flagged a 0.7% drop in 15 minutes at 10:41 UTC, with no single clear driver in our news feed.
• USD/CAD −0.15% CAD stays firm after the BoC's 25bp hike to 2.50% left more tightening open, though ING sees limited upside against the US dollar.

Releases

• EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator 96.9. The miss left little mark on the euro: EURUSD is up 0.07% since the last note at 1.11464, with the ECB the bigger focus.
• EUR Consumer Confidence -17.9. The in-line print added nothing new, and EURUSD's range is just 0.64 of a normal day.
• EUR Business Climate 0.09. The rise back above zero did not lift the euro, which is down 0.06% on the day against the dollar.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1113 Twice-tested floor at the base of the lower-high sequence from 1.1269, and the low end of the three-week range.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 Psychological floor beneath a broken October range, with the downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since late August intact.
• XAG/USD 52.591 Lowest listed H4 support; price is pressing the base of the 52.66–54.60 range at yearly lows.
• USD/CAD 1.3968 Swing low at the bottom of the 1.3968–1.4068 basing range, with today's low just above it.

Ahead

• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) The forecast is 0.3% after 0.2%. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and a miss would test December hike pricing across USD pairs, XAUUSD and BTCUSD.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) The forecast is 3.1% after 3%. The desk sees a hot print mostly confirming what is priced, while a soft one could squeeze crowded gold and silver shorts.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized Q3 growth is expected at 3.2% vs 2.2% prior, a read on whether strong growth keeps the Fed on its hawkish path, with the dollar and US indices exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index The forecast is 3.5% vs 6.1% prior. The price deflator adds to the inflation picture alongside PCE.
• 12:30 UTC USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) Headline PCE is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%, keeping the oil-driven inflation story in focus for the dollar and rates-sensitive assets.
• 12:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims The forecast is 199K after 194K. A sharp rise would add to the dovish case, which the BTCUSD digest flags as a transmission channel.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility A hold at 2.5% is fully priced, so EURUSD, EURGBP and EURCAD will trade any December-hike signal.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement The desk is watching whether the statement references a December hike explicitly, which could squeeze a crowded bearish euro narrative.
• 13:45 UTC EUR ECB Press Conference Lagarde speaks just after the resignation announcement, so succession and French political risk could colour the euro's reaction.
• 15:50 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech This is the first follow-up ECB voice after the decision, a chance to clarify December guidance for EUR crosses.

Until the next note, the key question is whether the 12:30 UTC core PCE print confirms or undercuts the priced December Fed hike, and whether the ECB's 13:15 GMT statement mentions December.