AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:13 UTC
Downtrend, volatility compressing into Friday close · RSI 42 · price 0.67736
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after the PPI spike was rejected.
The spike to 0.6803 on the softer US PPI was rejected below the 0.6800 round number. NY then pressed AUD to new lows as yields firmed, leaving lower highs at 0.6781 and 0.6777, a 0.6772 swing low cluster and a 0.6769 session low into the close. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6776) and ema50 (0.6782), RSI is 41.5 and ATR(14) has compressed from 6.0 to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.67691
Resistance: 0.67761, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6769 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 0.6781 lower high and the ema50 at 0.6782 (near the 38.2% of the post-PPI drop) neutralises the downtrend read
Back above the 0.6800 round number unwinds the post-PPI drop entirely
Fed's Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and Warsh on Monday land after the weekly close and could gap the open
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the weekly close · RSI 42 · price 0.67736
Lower highs since the PPI spike; tight late-NY range 0.6769–0.6781.
The softer US PPI spike to 0.6803 met rejection and AUD has printed lower highs through NY. Price is pinned below the ema20 (0.6776) and ema50 (0.6782), with the prior low at 0.6772 and a fresh session low at 0.6769. ATR has compressed from 6.0 to 3.6 pips and the late-NY range top at 0.6781 is capping, with the 38.2% fib of the PPI drop overlapping the ema50.
Support: 0.67716, 0.67691
Resistance: 0.67761, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 range top and ema50 (0.6782, 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6769 session low extends the NY downtrend
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC; weekend gap risk at the open
0.6800 round number remains the level the PPI spike failed to hold
22:26 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the Friday close · RSI 42 · price 0.67736
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI high, compressing near the session low.
The spike to the 0.6803 PPI high on the soft US print was rejected, and NY ground lower as yields stayed firm. Price printed a fresh session low at 0.6769, just under the 0.6772 prior low, and is holding below a falling ema20 at 0.6776. ATR(14) has compressed from 6.0 to 3.6 pips into the late-NY drift, and RSI(14) is at 41.5, off its lows but not stretched.
Support: 0.67691, 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67761, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence from the PPI high
Failure to hold the 0.6769 session low extends the lower-low chain
0.6800 psych sits just below ema50 at 0.6782 and the 50% retrace of the PPI-high fib, a cluster capping recoveries
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and weekend gap risk ahead of Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
21:49 UTC
Downtrend, ATR compressing late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.67745
Lower highs and lower lows since the post-PPI fade; fresh day low printed in late NY.
The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected in the first hour of NY. The post-PPI fade has run as a lower-high/lower-low chain on firm US yields, with the day low now 0.67691 late in NY hours and price capped below the ema20 (0.67763). ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips into the Friday close; RSI 37.4 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.67716, 0.67691
Resistance: 0.67763, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 lower high (38.2% of the post-PPI fade) breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.67716 swing low and 0.67691 day low extends the lower-low chain
0.6800 round number caps overhead; a reclaim would undo the post-PPI fade
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~2h) in thin Friday-close liquidity could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 39 · price 0.67747
Lower highs from the 0.6815 Asian high; late-NY box 0.6772–0.6781 below both EMAs.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.6815 Asian high. The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 at the NY open met rejection and sold off to a 0.6772 session low as US yields climbed. Late NY is compressing in a 0.6772–0.6781 box below the ema20 at 0.6778 and the ema50 at 0.6784. ATR(14) has shrunk to 3.8 pips and RSI(14) sits at 39.
Support: 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67777, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 swing high and the ema50 at 0.6784 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 0.6772 session low extends the NY selloff to a fresh lower low
0.6800 round number caps any rebound while the lower-highs sequence holds
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt thin post-NY liquidity
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.6776
Lower highs from 0.6815 Asia high; tight late-NY coil above 0.6772.
AUDUSD has sold off from the 0.6815 Asia high, and the soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected below the 0.6800 round number as US yields stayed firm. The pair broke the 0.6781 pre-PPI low to a 0.6772 session low. The NY bounce stalled at a 0.6781 lower high, under the 38.2% fib, and price now coils just below ema20 (0.67781) with ATR compressed to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67781, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline and opens 0.6785 ema50 / 0.6800 round number
Loss of the 0.6772 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC is the last scheduled risk before the weekend; Warsh on Monday is the bigger swing factor
20:29 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into Friday close · RSI 43 · price 0.67762
Lower highs since the PPI spike, basing above session low.
The softer-than-forecast PPI spike to 0.6803 faded fast. Firm USD and yields then carried AUDUSD below the 0.6800 round number, with lower highs capped along the descending trendline into a NY session low at 0.6772, tested twice. Price is now basing just under the ema20 at 0.6778 with ATR compressing to 4.1 pips and RSI near 43 into the Friday close.
Support: 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67784, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 lower high and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low extends the NY downtrend leg
Reclaiming the 0.6800 round number is needed to undo the post-PPI breakdown
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh on Monday could gap price at the weekly open
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.67761
Lower highs from the PPI spike, late-NY box 0.6772–0.6781.
Asia peaked near 0.6815 before a steady grind lower. The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected below the 0.6800 psych level, and NY extended to a 0.6772 session low as yields climbed. Late NY is boxed between the 0.6772 session low and the 0.6781 swing high, with price below the ema20 at 0.6779 and the ema50 at 0.6785; RSI 39.9 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.67725
Resistance: 0.67786, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6781 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the PPI spike
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low and the 0.67725 retest low extends the lower-low sequence
Ema20 at 0.6779 capping the bounces; reclaiming it would mark a shift out of the late-NY box
0.6800 psych level is the PPI rejection point and the next upside reference
Jefferson (00:00 UTC) and Warsh (Mon 17:00 UTC) fall after the weekly close, so gap risk at the reopen
The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 (ppi high) was rejected as the dollar bid held, leaving a chain of lower highs that capped the bounce at 0.6781 (lower high), about 30% of the PPI fade. Late in the NY session price is coiling between the 0.6772 session low and the ema20 at 0.6779, with ATR(14) compressing to 4.4 pips and RSI(14) at 39.3, no extreme.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.6779, 0.6781, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6772 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6770 round number
M15 close above the 0.6781 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending structure, with the 0.6803 ppi high next
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC lands in thin Friday liquidity and could shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, NY low 0.67716 under test.
The PPI spike to 0.68031 was rejected below the 0.6800 pivot, and NY extended the sequence of lower highs from the 0.68146 Asia high to a 0.67716 session low as US yields firmed. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 0.6781 lower high near the ema20, and price is back retesting the session low. RSI(14) is at 38.9 and ATR is down to 4.6 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67794, 0.6781, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67716 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6770 psych level
Recovery above the 0.6781 lower high and the ema20 breaks the falling resistance line and neutralises the intraday downtrend
0.6800 pivot capped the PPI spike; a reclaim would invalidate the post-PPI rejection read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, with Warsh Monday and RBA minutes Tuesday, could reset the read after the weekend
Lower highs since PPI spike; base forming at 0.6772.
The softer US PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected at the 0.6800 psych level, and NY hours have printed lower highs since as the USD bid held. The session low at 0.6772 is holding, but the bounce stalled at the 0.6781 lower high, near ema20 (0.6780) and just shy of the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. Price sits below ema20 and ema50 (0.6786), with RSI(14) at 38.3 and ATR(14) contracting from 6.5 to 4.7 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.6781, 0.67864, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6772 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6770 round number
Close above the 0.6781 lower high and the NY trendline invalidates the lower-high read and opens ema50 at 0.6786
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC lands after the Friday close, so the read carries gap risk into Monday's Asia session
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.67763
Lower highs from the Asia peak; tight 0.6772–0.6781 base after the NY session low.
AUDUSD faded from the 0.6815 Asia high through London. The PPI spike to the 0.6803 ppi high was rejected below 0.6800 as US yields stayed firm, and NY printed a session low at 0.6772. Late NY is coiling under the ema20 at 0.6781, with ATR(14) compressing to 4.7 pips from 6.5 and RSI(14) at 43.2. The ema50 at 0.6787 caps the next leg higher.
Support: 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67806, 0.67869, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 / 0.6781 range top breaks the lower-highs line and ends the late-NY consolidation
A move back through the ema50 at 0.6787 would expose the 0.6800 pivot and the ppi high at 0.6803
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Thin Friday close liquidity, then Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~5h), could jolt the range
Lower highs from Asia; higher low off 0.67716 session low.
The 0.68031 PPI spike faded into a NY sell-off from 0.67993 to a 0.67716 session low as US yields kept rising, extending the lower-high chain from the 0.68146 Asian high. Late NY has printed a higher low at 0.67744 and is capped just under the ema20 at 0.67808, with RSI at 45 and ATR compressing to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.67744, 0.67716
Resistance: 0.67808, 0.67873, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.67808 puts the ema50 at 0.67873, near the 50% of the NY sell-off, in play
0.6800 round number is the next cap on any extension higher
Loss of the 0.67744 higher low and the 0.67716 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, about 5h away, could shift this read in thin trade
Lower highs from PPI spike; higher low forming above session low.
The softer US PPI spike to 0.6803 (ppi high) was rejected, and NY extended below the Asian low (0.6784) to a 0.6772 session low along a lower-highs line. The late-NY bounce is capped at the ema20 (0.6781) with price below both EMAs, RSI(14) recovering to 45.8 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.67741, 0.67716
Resistance: 0.6781, 0.67876, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.6788 and the lower-highs line would break the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6774 higher low exposes the 0.6772 session low
A move back toward the ppi high at 0.6803 would retrace most of the ppi fade fib
Fed's Jefferson speech in about 5.5h, during thin post-NY trade, could shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.67777
Lower highs from the 0.6803 PPI high; tight 0.6772–0.6780 base above the session low.
The 13:30 UTC PPI spike to the 0.6803 ppi high faded straight back under 0.6800 as US yields stayed firm. A lower-highs sequence then carried price to a 0.6772 session low during NY hours, extending the Asia fade from 0.6815. Late NY is now compressing at 0.6772–0.6780, below the ema20 (0.6781) and ema50 (0.6788), with RSI 41.9 and ATR easing to 5.1 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67811, 0.6788, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6781 breaks the late-NY compression to the upside and puts the ema50 at 0.6788 in play
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low exposes the 0.6770 round number and extends the lower-low chain
Lower-highs trendline from the ppi high stays intact unless price reclaims 0.6800
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6h) could shift this read in thin liquidity
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.67744
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI spike rejection.
The 13:30 UTC PPI spike to the ppi high at 0.68031 was rejected, and the dollar kept its Fed-hike bid despite the soft headline. Lower highs at 0.67993 and the 0.67799 bounce high followed, with a session low at 0.67716 in late NY hours. Price sits below the ema20 (0.67815) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39.9 and ATR 5.3 pips compressing; the bounce stalled short of the 38.2% of the PPI spike fib.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67799, 0.67815, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67716 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6770 round number
Close back above the 0.67799 bounce high and ema20 at 0.67815 would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift the read in thin post-NY liquidity
Lower highs from the Asia peak, lower low at 0.6772, small base under ema20.
Lower highs since the 0.6815 Asia peak. The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 at the NY open was rejected below the 0.6800 pivot and sold to a 0.6772 session low as Fed-hike pricing held. Price is now basing just under the ema20 at 0.6782 with RSI(14) at 41.9 and ATR(14) easing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67821, 0.67889, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.6782 and the 38.2% fib exposes the ema50 at 0.6789
Reclaim of the 0.6800 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure at the 0.6772 session low and the 0.6770 round number extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Jefferson speech in ~6h (00:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since PPI spike; base forming at 0.6772.
The Asian range top at 0.6815 gave way to a steady grind lower. The soft-PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected during NY hours, and the move extended to a session low at 0.6772 as yields lifted the dollar. Price is basing just under the 0.6780 lower high, below a falling ema20 (0.6783) and ema50 (0.6789), with RSI at 41.5 and the lower-high trendline still capping.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67799, 0.67825, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6780 lower high and ema20 at 0.6783 would break the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib of the PPI drop sits at 0.6784
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 0.6770 round number
Lower-high trendline from 0.6799 caps the bounce while intact; a reclaim of the 0.6803 ppi spike negates the downtrend read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC (~6.5h) could shift the read into thin Friday-close liquidity
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 42 · price 0.67776
Lower highs and lower lows through NY after PPI spike rejection.
The 13:30 UTC PPI spike to 0.6803 was rejected and NY has carved lower highs down to a 0.6772 session low, with firm USD tone after a PPI print too soft to dent Fed hike pricing. Late NY is bouncing into the 0.6780 lower high, still below the ema20 (0.6783) and ema50 (0.6790), with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR at 6 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.6780, 0.6783, 0.67898
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6780 lower high and ema20 at 0.6783 would interrupt the NY lower-high sequence
ema50 at 0.6790, near the 61.8% of the PPI leg fib, caps a deeper rebound
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low and the 0.6770 round number confirms another lower-low
Fed's Daly (17:00 UTC) and Jefferson (00:00 UTC) could shift the read into thin Friday-close liquidity
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 36 · price 0.67742
LH/LL chain from the post-PPI 0.6803 spike, price below both EMAs late in the NY session.
A soft US PPI print lifted AUDUSD to the PPI high at 0.6803. That spike was rejected as hawkish Fed repricing held, and NY has since printed lower highs at 0.6799 and 0.6780, with a fresh session low at 0.6772. Price is under the falling ema20 (0.67835) and ema50 (0.67903). RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) is ~6 pips.
Support: 0.67716, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67798, 0.67835, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6780 lower high breaks the LH chain; ema20 at 0.67835 aligns with the 38.2% fib of the post-PPI drop
Failure to hold the 0.6772 session low exposes the 0.6770 round number
Fed's Daly speaking at 17:00 UTC could shift USD into the Friday close
Above 0.6803 PPI high would negate the post-PPI rejection read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since PPI spike · RSI 36 · price 0.6774
LH/LL chain in NY; London range low broken, price near session low.
The softer headline US PPI spiked price to 0.6803, but the move met rejection and NY printed a lower high at 0.6799 before breaking the pre-PPI low at 0.6781 to a session low at 0.6773. Price is below both EMAs, with ema20 at 0.6784 capping the bounce. RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not oversold, and ATR has expanded from 4 to 6 pips since the release.
Support: 0.67728, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67813, 0.67844, 0.67993
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6773 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6750 psych level
M15 close back above the 0.6781 pre-PPI low and ema20 at 0.6784 would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 0.6799 lower high breaks the NY descending resistance
Fed's Daly speaks in ~14 min and could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 40 · price 0.67783
Lower highs at 0.68031 and 0.67993, fresh session low 0.67728.
The soft headline US PPI spiked AUDUSD to 0.68031, but the move was rejected. A lower high at 0.67993 followed, and NY hours took out the 0.67813 prior low to a session low at 0.67728. Price sits below the ema20 (0.67855) and ema50 (0.67916), RSI(14) is 39.9 and off its lows, and ATR has expanded to 6.2 pips from 3.6.
Support: 0.67728, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67813, 0.67855, 0.67993
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.67813 prior low and the ema20 at 0.67855 would stall the lower-low sequence
Break of the 0.67728 session low exposes the 0.6770 round number
Lower high at 0.67993 caps the PPI spike retrace; a reclaim would negate the downtrend read
Fed's Daly speaks in ~30 min and could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 37 · price 0.67773
Lower highs and lower lows from Asia into NY; fresh session low after the PPI spike.
The spike on the slightly soft US PPI print was rejected at 0.6803, just above the 0.6800 handle. NY then printed a 0.6799 lower high and a post-PPI drop to a new session low at 0.6773, extending the chain of lower lows from Asia. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6786) and EMA50 (0.6792), RSI(14) is 36.8 and not oversold, and ATR(14) has widened to 6.3 pips.
Support: 0.67728, 0.6770
Resistance: 0.67813, 0.67862, 0.67993
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6781 prior low (London low) neutralises the fresh breakdown
A reclaim of the 0.6799 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6773 session low exposes the 0.6770 round number
Fed's Daly speech in ~45 min could shift USD momentum into the NY close
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 37 · price 0.67748
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; fresh session low in NY hours.
Highs stepped down from the 0.6815 Asia high to the 0.6803 post-PPI spike and the 0.6799 lower high. The softer US PPI pop was rejected under 0.6800 as the USD bid held, and NY hours broke the 0.6781 broken low to a 0.6773 session low. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.6787 and the ema50, with RSI 37 not yet oversold and ATR widening to 6.4 pips.
Support: 0.67728, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.67813, 0.67872, 0.67993
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6773 session low exposes the 0.6750 round number
Recovery above the 0.6781 broken low and the ema20 at 0.6787 would stall the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.6799 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Daly speaks in ~1h (17:00 UTC) and could extend the USD move or trigger a squeeze
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 35 · price 0.67747
Lower highs and lower lows since the PPI spike; Asian and London lows broken.
The slightly soft US PPI spike to the 0.6803 PPI high was rejected. NY session has since printed lower highs at 0.6803 and 0.6799, then broke the London low at 0.6781 and the Asian range low to a fresh day low at 0.6775, with USD holding near 19-month highs. Price is below a falling EMA20 (0.6788) and EMA50 (0.6793), RSI(14) is 34.8 and not yet oversold, and ATR has expanded to 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.67749, 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6781, 0.67883, 0.68031
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6781 london low would mark the break as false
Failure to hold the 0.6775 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6750 round number
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.6788 and the lower highs trendline would neutralise the post-PPI selloff; the 50–61.8% zone of the ppi swing fib sits near 0.6789–0.6792
Fed's Bowman in 4 minutes and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 39 · price 0.67813
Lower highs since PPI spike; fresh session low at 0.6780.
Softer US PPI spiked AUDUSD to 0.6803, but the move was rejected. The PPI fade has since produced a lower high at 0.6799 and a break of the 0.6785 NY swing low, putting price at a new session low on the 0.6780 round number, below both a declining ema20 (0.6790) and ema50 (0.6794). ATR(14) has expanded from 3.9 to 6.2 pips, while RSI(14) at 38.9 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.6780
Resistance: 0.67848, 0.67896, 0.67993
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6785 ny swing low and the 0.6790 ema20 would neutralise the latest leg down
Sustained trade below the 0.6780 round number extends the lower-low sequence into untested ground for this window
Close above the 0.6799 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Fed's Bowman in ~19 min and Daly in ~89 min could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, choppy after PPI · RSI 43 · price 0.67851
Lower highs below 0.6800; lows holding just above the 0.6781 session low.
The slightly soft US PPI spiked price to 0.6803. That PPI high was rejected at the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-high decline, and the NY session has since printed a lower high at 0.6799 and a swing low at 0.6783, just above the 0.6781 session low. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6791) and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR(14) expanding to 6.2 pips.
Support: 0.67833, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67906, 0.67993, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6781 session low confirms a lower low in the downtrend
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.6791 and the 0.6799 lower high shifts the read to a range
A break above the 0.6803 PPI high and the 61.8% fib negates the rejection
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC (~34 min) and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.67902
Descending highs into a 0.6781–0.6803 NY range.
The slightly soft US PPI spiked AUDUSD to a 0.6803 PPI high, but supply capped it below the 0.6800 round number, extending the lower highs from the Asian 0.6815 top. In NY hours price is chopping between the 0.6785 NY low and the EMA50 at 0.6795, with the 14:45 close just above EMA20 at 0.6791, RSI(14) neutral at 50.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 5.9 pips.
Support: 0.67848, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67951, 0.6800, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6781 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema50 at 0.6795, then a close above the 0.6803 PPI high, breaks the lower highs chain
Repeated rejection at the 0.6800 round number keeps the range top intact
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The soft US PPI headline lifted AUDUSD off the 0.6781 session low to a 0.6803 ppi high, but the spike was rejected at the 0.6800 handle and most of the move retraced to a 0.6785 post-ppi low. Price is back above the ema20 at 0.6791 and pressing the ema50 at 0.6795 from below, with ATR(14) expanding to 5.8 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 53.8.
Support: 0.67911, 0.67848, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67952, 0.68031, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6803 ppi high breaks the NY range and exposes the 0.6815 asian high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.6785 post-ppi low reopens the 0.6781 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.67864
Lower highs from 0.68146; PPI spike rejected, price back near day low.
The soft US PPI headline drove a spike from the 0.67813 day low to a 0.68031 ppi high. That move was rejected just above 0.6800, and price has since retraced about three-quarters of the ppi spike, back under ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 41.7. The asia low at 0.67838 and the day low are the nearby floor, and ATR has expanded to 5.5 pips since the release.
Support: 0.67838, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67906, 0.67952, 0.68031
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67813 day low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above ema50 at 0.67952 would undo the post-PPI fade
Re-test of the 0.68031 ppi high would challenge the lower-high read
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.67916
Lower highs from 0.6815, Asian low broken, PPI spike rejected at 0.6800 handle.
Lower highs have run from the 0.6815 Asia high along a descending line. London broke the Asian low to a 0.6781 session low before the soft headline US PPI spiked price to 0.6803, a ~65% retrace of the Asia high–session low leg, where the 0.6800 handle rejected it. Price sits just under ema20 (0.6791) and below ema50 (0.6796), with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR expanding to 5.2 pips.
Support: 0.67876, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67956, 0.68031, 0.68146
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.6788 post-PPI low exposes the 0.6781 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.6803 PPI spike high and the descending line from the asia high negates the rejection read
Ema50 at 0.6796 capping rebounds keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Downtrend, PPI spike rejected · RSI 49 · price 0.67904
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; London broke the Asian low, PPI spike capped below 0.6805.
Lower highs and lower lows ran through Asia and London, and London broke the 0.6784 asian low to a 0.6781 session low. The soft US PPI headline drove a spike to the 0.6803 ppi high, near the 61.8% fib of the asian high-to-session low drop, which was rejected. The last bar closed just above the ema20 (0.6791) but below the ema50 (0.6796) early in NY hours, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR expanding to 5.2 pips.
Support: 0.67912, 0.67838, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67958, 0.68031, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6803 ppi high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.6815 asian high back in view
Holding below the ema50 at 0.6796 keeps the spike reading as a rejection
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.6784 asian low exposes the 0.6781 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Bowman in ~1h50m and Daly in ~3h could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
London downtrend interrupted by PPI spike · RSI 57 · price 0.67955
Lower highs through London, PPI bounce rejected under 0.6800.
London ground lower in a lower-high sequence to a 0.67813 session low, then the soft US PPI headline sparked a 17-pip spike through the London trendline to a 0.68031 PPI high, at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high-to-low drop. The upper wick shows rejection at the 0.6800 round number. Price holds just above the 0.67959 EMA50 and the 0.67911 ema20, with ATR expanding to 5 pips.
Support: 0.67911, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68031, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68031 ppi high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 0.68146 asian high
Close back below the ema20 at 0.67911 puts the 0.67813 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, PPI bounce testing it · RSI 39 · price 0.67946
Lower highs since London open, fresh session low then sharp PPI spike.
Lower highs from the 0.68004 London high took AUDUSD to a 0.67813 session low, just under the Asian low. The softer headline US PPI then lifted the still-forming bar about 12 pips, roughly three times the 4-pip ATR(14), into the ema50 at 0.67959 and the lower-highs trendline. At the last closed bar price sat below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 38.5.
Support: 0.67905, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67959, 0.68004
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68004 London high and 0.6800 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Rejection at the ema50 / lower-highs line and a drop back below the ema20 at 0.67905 keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 0.67813 session low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could shift this read after PPI
Lower-high chain from the 0.6815 Asia high; Asian low swept, small bounce.
The London-NY transition swept the Asian low at 0.67838 to a session low of 0.67813, then closed back above it. Price sits below the ema20 (0.6791) and ema50 (0.6796) under a descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI 36.6 and ATR 4 pips into US PPI as USD holds its 19-month high.
Support: 0.67838, 0.67813
Resistance: 0.6791, 0.67959, 0.6800
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI in 14 min (core MoM f/c 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.67813 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.67959 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 0.68 handle
Failure to hold back above the asian low at 0.67838 turns the sweep into a clean break
Lower highs from 0.68146 Asia high; London range broken lower into NY open.
Lower highs since the 0.68146 Asia high keep AUDUSD heavy as USD holds near 19-month highs. The 0.6800 round number capped the 07:00 UTC bounce, and the late-London drop to a 0.67813 session low broke the 0.67838 Asian low and the 0.6787–0.6798 London range. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) at 34.7 is weak but not oversold, and ATR is only 4 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67813
Resistance: 0.67916, 0.67961, 0.6800
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (28 min) could materially shift this read; a 4-pip ATR understates the likely release range
Failure to hold the 0.67813 session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.67916 would signal the range break failing
Recovery above the 0.67961 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens a path toward the 0.6800 round number
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into the day's low · RSI 37 · price 0.67842
Descending trendline of lower highs pressing a flat floor at the Asian low.
Since the 0.6815 Asian spike, AUDUSD has printed lower highs at 0.6800, 0.6798 and 0.6796 along a descending trendline. Price is back retesting the 0.6784 Asian low into US PPI as the 19-month-high USD keeps AUD heavy. It trades below ema20 (0.6792) and ema50 with RSI 36.9 and ATR compressed at 4 pips.
Support: 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67923, 0.67961, 0.6800
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6784 Asian low confirms a lower-low and breaks the session floor
Close above the 0.6796 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts 0.6800 psych back in focus
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (~43 min) can expand range well beyond the 4-pip ATR; a soft core print is the main threat to the downtrend read
Lower highs from 0.6815 Asian peak, lows holding 0.6784–0.6787.
The Asian session high at 0.6815 faded into a session low at 0.6784 before London, and London has stayed capped below the 0.6800 psych level, with lower highs along a falling trendline and the 0.6796 lower high rejected at midday. The pair is pinned below the ema20 at 0.6793 and the ema50, with RSI at 42.5 and ATR compressing to 4 pips. The tightening against the 0.6787 london low comes ahead of US PPI, with the USD firm at 19-month highs.
Support: 0.67867, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6793, 0.67961, 0.6800
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC is likely to resolve the compression and could materially shift this read
A break below the 0.6787 london low and the 0.6784 session low would extend the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.6796 lower high would neutralise the lower-high chain
Reclaiming 0.6800 psych would put the move back inside the Asian range body
12:17 UTC
Downtrend since Asia, compressing into range · RSI 47 · price 0.67924
Lower highs off 0.6800 against flat lows near 0.6787; tight London range.
AUD's Asian bounce to the 0.6815 asian high faded on USD strength. Since then London has held a tight band, with lower highs capped under the 0.6800 round number and the 0.6787 london low holding above the 0.6784 day low. Price sits just below the ema20 (0.67933) and ema50 (0.6798), and ATR has compressed to 3.9 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67867, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67961, 0.68004, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (73 min) could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits the USD-firm backdrop
M15 close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.6800 round number breaks the compression and exposes the 0.6815 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6787 london low puts the 0.6784 day low back in play and extends the lower-low sequence
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) can move the pair again after the PPI reaction
The Asian bounce to 0.6815 faded and AUDUSD slid to a 0.6784 session low as USD held near 19-month highs. London has since printed lower highs from the 0.6800 london high, staying below the ema20 and ema50, while the london low at 0.6787 holds above the session low and ATR compresses to 3.6 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67867, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67931, 0.67983, 0.68004
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.6784 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the lower highs trendline and ema20 at 0.6793 weakens the London downtrend read, with the ema50 at 0.6798 and the london high at 0.6800 overhead
Lower highs since the Asian bounce; London range nested inside the Asian range.
The Asian bounce to the 0.68146 high was fully sold back to the 0.67838 Asian low, with the dollar bid near 19-month highs. London has held a tight 0.67873–0.67984 range below the ema20 and ema50, printing lower highs as ATR compresses to 3.7 pips. RSI at 36.6 sits well off the 23.8 reading at the Asian low.
Support: 0.67873, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67935, 0.67984, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) is likely to break the London range compression
Failure to hold the 0.67838 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.67984 london high, with the ema50 at 0.67987 just above, breaks the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
Recovery of the 0.67935 ema20 is the first sign the London selling is stalling
Fib 50% of the Asian high–low drop at ~0.6799 capped the first rebound
Lower highs inside a tight London range above the day low.
The Asian bounce to 0.6815 failed and the slide printed a 0.6784 day low at 06:15 UTC. The London session has held a 0.6787–0.6798 band with lower highs since 09:00 UTC, and price now sits back near the london low under a falling ema20 at 0.6794. RSI(14) is at 37 and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips, with USD firm at 19-month highs on hawkish Fed repricing ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67873, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6794, 0.67984, 0.68004
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.6787 london low exposes the 0.6784 day low; a close below that extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.6798 london high breaks the lower highs trendline; the 0.6800 pivot sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian high to day low drop
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h, core YoY f/c 5%) could break the compressed London range in either direction
Failure to reclaim the ema20 at 0.6794 keeps the London range drifting lower
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 0.67889
Lower highs from 0.6800, pressing session low; ATR compressed.
The Asian bounce to the 0.6815 asian high faded as USD held at 19-month highs. London's open spike was rejected at the 0.6800 london high, just above ema50 at 0.67995, and a chain of lower highs has since pushed price back to the 0.6787 session low, below ema20 at 0.67945. RSI(14) at 36.9 is soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67873, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67945, 0.68004, 0.68146
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6784 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 0.6800 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.6815 asian high back in play
Failure to reclaim ema20 at 0.67945 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could expand the range well beyond the 3.9-pip ATR
Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) remarks on 50bp December odds could shift the post-PPI read
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 0.67896
Lower highs inside a tight London range below both EMAs.
The Asian bounce to 0.6815 was sold through to a 0.6784 day low by 06:30 UTC. Since then London has held a 0.6788–0.6800 range, with the london high capped at 0.6800 near ema50 and a chain of lower highs pressing price into the london low. Price is under the ema20 at 0.6795, RSI(14) is 38.8 and ATR has compressed to 3.9 pips, with USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing ahead of PPI.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67951, 0.68004
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6788 london low exposes the 0.6784 day low
Close above the London lower-highs trendline and ema20 at 0.6795 eases the pressure; 0.6800 london high is the range top
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h) could break the compression; Bowman and Daly follow later in NY hours
10:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 0.67933
Lower high at 0.6815 Asian high, day low 0.6784, London range 0.6788–0.6800 below both EMAs.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67984, 0.68003, 0.68146
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing below EMAs · RSI 43 · price 0.6793
Lower highs from Asian high; tight range above London session low.
London open broke the Asian range low near 0.6792 and swept to a 0.6784 session low. The rebound stalled at the 0.6800 pivot, close to the ema50 at 0.6801, and price has since compressed in a 0.6788–0.6798 band below both EMAs, with RSI(14) recovering from 23.8 to 42.8 and ATR(14) easing to 4.1 pips. Lower highs from the 0.6815 Asian high remain intact, and the ema20 at 0.6796 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high to London low leg, with AUD heavy on hawkish Fed pricing.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67957, 0.67984, 0.68006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6798 range top and the ema50 at 0.6801 breaks the lower-high sequence and reclaims the 0.6800 pivot
Failure to hold the 0.6788 higher low reopens the 0.6784 session low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) during NY hours could materially shift this read; Bowman at 15:50 UTC follows
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight range below 0.6800 after the session low.
The Asian slide from the 0.6815 Asian high ran into early London. It set a 0.6784 session low with RSI(14) near 24, while USD held firm on hawkish Fed pricing. Since then price has compressed between the 0.6788 higher low and the 0.6800 London high, sitting on EMA20 and under ema50 at 0.6801, with the lower-highs line from the Asian high still intact.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68009, 0.68146
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h, NY open) could break the compressed range in either direction
M15 close above the 0.6800 London high and ema50 breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.6815 Asian high in view
Failure to hold the 0.6788 higher low exposes the 0.6784 session low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) during NY hours
Lower highs from Asian high; London compressing in tight band.
Asia sold from the 0.6815 Asian high to a 0.6784 session low. The bounce stalled at the 0.6800 round number, and London has since compressed between the 0.6791 London low and the 0.6798 London high, under both EMAs and near the 38.2% of the Asian drop. Firm USD on hawkish Fedspeak keeps the lower-highs sequence intact, with RSI(14) back at 45 from a sub-25 extreme.
Support: 0.6791, 0.6784
Resistance: 0.6798, 0.6800, 0.6815
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6800 round number and ema50 (0.6801) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6791 London low reopens the 0.6784 session low
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.7h) could materially shift this read
ATR(14) at 4.3 pips, so the London band is compressed ahead of the data
Lower highs from Asian high; higher lows since 06:30 UTC low, capped under 0.6800.
AUD/USD slid from the 0.6815 Asian high through 0.6800 to a 0.6784 session low at 06:30 UTC, with RSI(14) down at 23.8, as the USD bid on Fed-hike pricing held. London has since printed a higher low at 0.6788 and is compressing just under the 0.6800 round number and the 38.2% retrace. Price sits below the EMA20 (0.6796) and the EMA50 (0.6801), and ATR is steady at 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6800 round number and EMA50 breaks the squeeze and opens the 50% retrace toward the 0.6815 Asian high
Loss of the 0.6788 higher low and the rising trendline reopens the 0.6784 session low
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.6815 Asian high, then breakdown to 0.6784; higher lows since, capped under 0.6800.
Late Asia broke Thursday's NY low and the Asian floor near 0.6797, printing a 0.6784 session low with RSI(14) down to 23.8 as USD held 19-month highs. Early London has built higher lows off that session low and is retesting the broken floor from below, capped at the 0.6800 psych level with the ema50 at 0.6802 just above.
Support: 0.6791, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68016, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above psych 0.6800 and the ema50 at 0.6802 reclaims the broken floor and the fib 61.8% at 0.6803, putting the 0.6815 asian high in view
Break of the rising support line and the 0.6791 higher low re-exposes the 0.6784 session low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~4h, core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR 4.4 pips likely to expand on the release
Lower highs since Asian high; tight base 0.6788–0.6800 in early London.
Asia faded the 0.6815 Asian high down to the 0.6784 Asian low as USD held near 19-month highs. RSI(14) has rebuilt to 45 from a sub-25 reading at that low. Early London is holding a higher low at 0.6788 but stays below both EMAs, with rejection at the 0.6800 psych level and the ema50 near 0.6802 capping the bounce, which stalled at the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high sell-off.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68018, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6802 ema50 breaks the lower-high trendline and opens a path toward the 0.6815 asian high
Loss of the 0.6788 higher low exposes the 0.6784 asian low and resumes the downtrend
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of 4.4 pips is likely to expand around the release
Lower highs from Asia high; tight early-London base 0.6788–0.6800 below ema20.
The Asian bounce to the 0.6815 Asia high faded as USD stayed firm into PPI. Price printed a 0.6784 session low around 06:00 UTC, with RSI briefly at 23.8. Early London is holding a higher low at 0.6788 but stays capped below the ema20 (0.67965), the round number 0.6800 (50% fib of the Asia high-low move) and the lower-highs line from the Asia high.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67965, 0.6800, 0.68146
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the round number 0.6800 and ema50 0.68021 breaks the lower-highs line and the Asia high-low fib cap
Loss of the 0.67883 higher low exposes the 0.67838 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR has expanded from 3.3 to 4.5 pips
Lower highs below 0.6800; Asian range broken lower, tight consolidation 0.6788–0.6795.
The Asian range (0.6797–0.6815, Asian high 0.68146) broke lower and printed a session low at 0.6784, with RSI(14) down to 23.8. The London open bounce met rejection at 0.6800, the London high, and price now sits below the ema20 (0.6797) and ema50 with lower highs intact as USD holds 19-month highs into PPI.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67968, 0.68004, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6800 London high and ema20 would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6788 higher low reopens the 0.6784 session low
Lower highs trendline from the 0.68146 Asian high caps the bounce; a break of it changes the read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in ~5h could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; higher low at 0.6788 after London low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.6797 and printed a session low at 0.6784, with RSI(14) touching 23.8. The bounce stalled at the 0.6800 round number, a higher low formed at 0.6788, and price now sits just under the ema20 (0.6797) inside the falling line from the 0.6815 Asian high, with the firm-USD backdrop intact ahead of PPI.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67973, 0.6800, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6800 round number and the falling trendline weakens the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6788 higher low reopens the 0.6784 session low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 15:50 UTC
A recovery through the 0.6815 asian high would neutralise the London breakdown
08:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.67926
Lower high at 0.6800 below both EMAs, holding above the Asian low.
Asia faded from the 0.6815 asian high to a 0.6784 asian low, with RSI(14) reaching 23.8. The bounce met rejection at 0.6800 near the 50% fib of that drop, leaving a lower high under the descending line. Price is coiling above the 0.6788 swing low and below the ema20 as London opens, with USD firm near 19-month highs into US PPI.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67976, 0.68004, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6800 lower high and the descending line breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6784 asian low extends the lower-low chain
Loss of the 0.6788 swing low puts the asian low back in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR rising to 4.6 pips
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 39 · price 0.67928
Asian range broken lower; early-London bounce capped at 0.6800.
With USD firm at 19-month highs into PPI, lower highs from the 0.6815 Asian high pushed AUDUSD through the Asian range low and to a 0.6784 session low, where RSI(14) touched 23.8. The rebound stalled at the 0.6800 round number, just above the 50% fib, and held under the lower-high trendline. Early London has since printed a higher low at 0.6788, with price still below the EMA20 (0.6798) and the 0.6804 ema50.
Support: 0.67883, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68036, 0.68146
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6800 round number and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence and open the ema50 at 0.6804, then the 0.6815 Asian high.
Failure to hold the 0.6788 higher low exposes the 0.6784 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain.
ATR(14) is rising from 3.3 to 4.6 pips. Range expansion is building ahead of the move.
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read.
Lower-high chain from Asian high; early London bounce capped under 0.6800.
Asia sold off from the 0.68146 Asian high to a 0.67838 session low, RSI(14) washing out to 23.8 before a London open bounce stalled at 0.68004, just above the 50% fib and under the 0.6800 handle. Price is back below both EMAs and the falling trendline; USD remains firm near 19-month highs into PPI.
Support: 0.67922, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.68004, 0.68041, 0.68146
What it said to watch
15-min close above the 0.68041 ema50 breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Loss of the 0.67922 swing low exposes the 0.67838 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Asian high at 0.68146 is the structural cap; only a reclaim flips the intraday read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read; core MoM above 0.3% vs at or below 0.1% are the cited thresholds
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; 0.6800 broken, now being retested from below.
Asia faded from the 0.6815 asian high in a lower-high chain, breaking the 0.6800 round number and Thursday's NY low at 0.6798 to a 0.6784 session low as Fed hike repricing kept USD bid. RSI(14) recovered from 23.8 to 46.1 on the bounce, but the rebound met rejection at 0.6800, right at the ema20 (0.6799) and the descending trendline, with ATR(14) expanding to 4.5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.67922, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68047, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6800 round number and trendline breaks the lower-high chain, exposing the 0.6805 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.6792 swing low reopens the 0.6784 session low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high; sub-0.6800 break now being retested.
Asia session sold off from the 0.68146 Asian high and broke the 0.6797–0.6800 floor as the USD held near 19-month highs on Fed-hike pricing, printing a session low at 0.67838 with RSI(14) at 23.8. The London-open bounce is back at the broken low near 0.6797, testing the lower-highs trendline, with the ema20 at 0.67993 and the 50% fib of the Asian decline just overhead.
Support: 0.67966, 0.67838
Resistance: 0.67993, 0.68048, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 / 0.6800 turns the break into a false break and opens the ema50 at 0.68048
Rejection at the broken low and lower-highs trendline keeps the session low at 0.67838 in play
Recovery of the 0.68146 Asian high would undo the Asian lower-highs sequence
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 27 · price 0.67888
Asian range broken lower, new session low.
The early-Asia bounce stalled at the 0.6815 asian high and the session has since printed lower highs. Price has slipped through 0.6800 and the 0.6797 broken low (Asian low and yesterday's NY low) to a new session low near 0.6789, with USD firm near 19-month highs. Price is below the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) at 27.4 is oversold and ATR is 3.7 pips heading into London open.
Support: 0.67887
Resistance: 0.67966, 0.68014, 0.68146
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6797 broken low would turn the range break into a false break
A break of the lower-highs trendline plus a close above the ema20 at 0.6801 would ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6789 session low extends the lower-low sequence
The asian high at 0.6815 caps the session range unless reclaimed
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (about 7h) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in late Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.67942
Lower highs from Asian high, prior low broken.
Asia faded from the 0.6815 Asian high with a lower-highs sequence, slipping through Thursday's 0.6797 prior low to a 0.6792 session low as USD holds near 19-month highs on hawkish Fed rhetoric. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 31.1, low but not oversold, and ATR compressed at 3.6 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.67922
Resistance: 0.67975, 0.68025, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6797 prior low and 0.6800 (38.2% of the Asian decline fib) negates the range break
A close above ema20 at 0.68025 and the lower-highs line breaks the intraday downtrend read
Extension below the 0.6792 session low keeps the lower-low chain intact into London
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.67954
Lower-high chain from 0.6815, Asian range broken lower to fresh session low.
Asia faded the early pop to 0.6815 with a run of lower highs, then broke under yesterday's 0.6797 prior low to a session low at 0.6792 as the USD holds firm on Fed hike pricing. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.6803) and ema50 (0.6807), with RSI(14) at 33.6, soft but not oversold, and ATR at 3.7 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.67922
Resistance: 0.67966, 0.6800, 0.68034
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.6797 prior low would mark the break as a false break
M15 close back above the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.6803 ema20, which aligns with the 50% fib of the Asia sell-off, breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6792 session low extends the lower-low chain into London
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.67954
Lower highs from 0.6815 Asian high; prior low 0.6797 broken.
Asia faded the early spike to 0.6815 with a chain of lower highs, and price has now broken the 0.6797 prior low and the 0.6800 round number, setting a session low at 0.67922 as USD stays firm into PPI. RSI(14) at 30.5 sits just above oversold, and price is below both a rolling-over ema20 and ema50, with ATR near 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.67922
Resistance: 0.6797, 0.6800, 0.68041
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6797 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.67922 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.6800 round number and the ema20 at 0.68041 breaks the lower-high trendline read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia high, price pressing the 0.6797 double low.
Asia session has given back the 01:00 UTC pop to the 0.6815 asia high in a run of lower highs. Price is back under the 0.6800 round number, retesting the 0.6797 floor formed by the thu ny low, set as hawkish Fed talk lifted USD, and the early asia low. RSI(14) is 35.8, ATR is 3.3 pips and compressing, and price sits below both the ema20 (0.6805) and the ema50.
Support: 0.67966, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68051, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67966 asia low / 0.67975 thu ny low base prints a fresh window low and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of the 0.6800 round number and the ema20 at 0.6805 breaks the lower-highs line from the asia high
Asia high at 0.6815 marks the top of the session range; acceptance above it voids the lower-highs sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.67992
Asian pop to 0.6815 fully faded; price back at the 0.6797-0.6800 floor.
Late in the Asia session, the 01:00 UTC spike to the 0.68146 asian high has been sold back in a chain of lower highs, and price is now slipping under the 0.6800 round number to retest the 0.6797 floor. That floor held in NY and again at the 0.67966 asian low. Price sits below a rolling-over ema20 (0.68058) with RSI 37.7 and ATR compressed to 3.4 pips, as USD holds 19-month highs ahead of US PPI.
Support: 0.67966
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68058, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67966 asian low breaks a three-test floor and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.68058 and the lower-highs line would undercut the fade; asian high at 0.68146 is the range top
Price holding beneath the 0.6800 round number keeps it as overhead resistance
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.3%) and Bowman at 15:50 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Heavy, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 42 · price 0.68021
Lower highs from 0.6815 inside 0.6797–0.6815 Asian range.
Asia session reversed a false break below the 0.6800 round number at the 0.67966 Asian low and squeezed to the 0.68146 Asian high. A lower-high trendline has since walked price back under the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 41.6 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.4 pips into London. AUD stays heavy near 10-month lows on Fed-RBA divergence.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68063, 0.68088, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67966 asian low breaks the Asian range and the false-break read
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.68088 and the lower-high trendline weakens the drift lower
Asian high at 0.68146 caps the range; a break exposes the post-NY bounce area
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Bowman and Daly after
Lower highs off the 0.68146 Asian high inside a 0.67966–0.68146 Asian range.
Early Asia swept Thursday's NY low at 0.67975 down to an asian low of 0.67966, then snapped back to the 0.68146 asian high. Since then a chain of lower highs has pulled price back below the ema20 (0.68067) and ema50 (0.68091), with a swing low at 0.68004. That fits the digest's hawkish-Fed backdrop, with Williams calling inflation 'too elevated'. RSI(14) at 43 and ATR(14) at 3.5 pips point to a compressed pre-London tape.
Support: 0.68004, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68067, 0.68091, 0.68146
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.68004 swing low exposes the 0.67966 asian low, and a break there extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the ema50 at 0.68091 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.68146 asian high back in play
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read and expand ATR from 3.5 pips
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, fading the Asian bounce · RSI 37 · price 0.68021
Lower highs since 0.68146, price retesting 0.6800 late in Asia session.
The Asia session swept Thursday's NY low at 0.67975, printing 0.67966, then bounced 18 pips to 0.68146. Price has since given back almost 80% of that Asian bounce on a chain of lower highs. It now sits below the EMA20 (0.6807) and EMA50 (0.68093), retesting the 0.6800 round number with RSI(14) at 37.4 and ATR(14) a compressed 3.6 pips as the dollar holds near 19-month highs.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.6807, 0.68093, 0.68146
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6800 round number and the asian low at 0.67966 would extend the lower-low sequence to fresh 10-month lows
A recovery back above the ema20 at 0.6807 and the ema50 at 0.68093 would neutralise the fade; the asian high at 0.68146 caps the session range
London open is due before US PPI at 13:30 UTC; PPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 0.6815 Asian high, pressing the 0.6800 floor.
Asia swept Thursday's NY low (0.67975) to an Asian low of 0.67966, then popped 18 pips to the 0.68146 Asian high. That rally has since met rejection and been faded on a chain of lower highs. Price is back at the 0.6800 psych below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 40.2 and ATR at 3.7 pips. The tape is quiet but heavy as Fed-RBA divergence keeps AUD on the back foot into US PPI.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68077, 0.68096, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67966 asian low breaks the session floor and extends the downtrend
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.68077 and the ema50 at 0.68096 would break the lower-high chain
Lower-high trendline from the 0.68146 asian high caps the bounce while it holds
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (NY open) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside Asian range above 0.6797 double bottom.
Mid-Asia session. Price is fading back from the 0.6815 asian high after the rally off a double bottom near 0.6797. Thursday's NY low and the early-Asia low sit within a pip of each other. Lower highs since the rejection keep price below the ema20 (0.68082) and ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and ATR(14) at 3.5 pips. That leaves the bounce near its 50% retracement, with hawkish Fed talk still keeping the dollar firm.
Support: 0.68053, 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68082, 0.68146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.68053 swing low exposes the 0.6800 psych level and the 0.67966 asian low
Close back above the ema20 at 0.68082 and the lower-highs trendline weakens the fade read; the 0.68146 asian high is the double bottom neckline test
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Range, flat after Asia rebound · RSI 51 · price 0.68081
Asia sweep and rebound, lower highs since.
Asia briefly swept Thursday's NY low of 0.67975, printing the 0.67966 asia low, then rebounded sharply to the 0.68146 asia high. That high sits just above the 0.6814 NY bounce cap, after the USD-driven slide toward 0.6800. Since then a run of lower highs has pulled the Asian rebound back to the ema20 at 0.6808, still below the ema50 at 0.6810, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.7 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.68067, 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.6810, 0.68146, 0.68292
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6807 pullback low exposes 0.6800 psych and the 0.67966 asia low
A close above the 0.6815 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 0.6829 ny open high into view
Holding under the ema50 at 0.6810 keeps the Asian rebound capped
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with 0.6800 the level in focus
Asia sweep of NY low, then lower highs inside a 0.6797–0.6815 range.
Early Asia dipped under Thursday's NY low to the 0.6797 swing low, then snapped 15 pips higher to the 0.6815 session high. Lower highs off the top have since pulled price back to the ema20 at 0.6808, with the ema50 at 0.6810 just overhead and RSI(14) flat at 51. Hawkish Fed repricing that lifted USD to 19-month highs keeps the 0.6800 round number as the nearest floor.
Support: 0.68082, 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68101, 0.68146
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6815 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence off the Asia rally
Loss of the 0.6800 round number and the 0.6797 swing low resumes Thursday's lower-low chain
Holding the ema20 while staying below the ema50 keeps price compressed mid-range, with ATR at 3.7 pips
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally capped at 0.6815, tight consolidation above ema50.
Early Asia swept Thursday's NY low and the 0.6800 handle to a 0.6797 Asia low. A sharp reversal bar then reclaimed 0.6810, and the Asia rally has stalled in a 0.6808–0.6815 band under the Asia high, matching Thursday's post-claims bounce top. Price holds above ema20 and the flat ema50 with RSI(14) at 56 and ATR at 3.9 pips. The bounce stays shallow as USD holds near 19-month highs into US PPI.
Support: 0.68102, 0.68079, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68146, 0.68292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6815 Asia high opens the path to the 0.6829 NY high
Loss of the 0.6808 pullback low and rising support exposes 0.6800 and the 0.6797 Asia low
Acceptance back below the ema50 at 0.6810 returns price to the middle of the Asia rally fib
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.68086
Lower highs from 0.6848; false break below 0.6800 in Asia, now retracing.
The Asia session dipped to an asia low of 0.67966, just under the 0.67975 NY low, before a sharp reversal back above 0.6800 to an asia high of 0.68146. AUD remains heavy at 10-month lows on Fed-RBA divergence. Price is now fading and sits between the ema20 (0.68077, near the 38.2% of the Asia bounce fib) and the ema50 (0.68101), with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) at 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.68077, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68101, 0.68146, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20 at 0.68077 puts the 0.6800 handle and the asia low at 0.67966 back in focus
A close back below 0.67966 turns the false break into a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the ema50 and a close above the 0.68146 asia high opens the path toward the 0.68359 london high
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC later today could materially shift this read
Asia sweep of NY low reclaimed; tight consolidation under session high.
Asia briefly broke Thursday's NY low, taking out 0.67975 with an Asian low at 0.67966, then reclaimed 0.6800 in a single bar. The Asia bounce ran to a 0.68146 session high, in line with the post-NY rebound high at 0.6814. Price is now holding just above the ema50 at 0.6810, with the rising ema20 at 0.6808 below and RSI(14) easing to 56 from 63. Backdrop remains USD-firm after hawkish Fedspeak, with US PPI the next driver.
Support: 0.68102, 0.68076, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68146, 0.68292
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema50 and ema20 (0.6810/0.6808) unwinds the Asia bounce toward the 0.6797 asian low
Break of the 0.6797 asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low
Close above the 0.6815 session high opens the 0.6829 ny cap, where supply held before Thursday's NY breakdown
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday rebound off 0.6800 within broader downtrend · RSI 59 · price 0.6812
False break below 0.6800, recovery capped at 0.6815.
Early Asia swept the NY session low at 0.6797 to a sweep low at 0.67966. The move then snapped back above 0.6800 in one bar, turning the dip into a false break at the support flagged in the AUD digest. Price is holding above the ema50 (0.6810) and ema20 (0.6807) but stalling at the 0.6815 Asia high, which matches yesterday's NY bounce high. RSI(14) has recovered from 31 to 59 and ATR(14) has widened to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.68102, 0.68073, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68146, 0.6829
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6815 Asia high opens the prior high at 0.6829
Slip back below ema20 and the 0.6804 fib 61.8% of the Asia rebound weakens the false break read
Break below the 0.6797 sweep low resumes the downtrend
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with core MoM forecast at 0.3%, could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 15:50 UTC
Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed both EMAs; testing the session high.
Asia dipped through the 0.67975 NY low and the 0.6800 psych level to a 0.67966 sweep low, then reversed sharply to a 0.68146 session high. Price now sits above the ema50 at 0.68101 and the ema20 at 0.68069, with RSI(14) up from 31 to 59 and ATR(14) at 4 pips. The Asia rebound stalled just under the session high.
Support: 0.68101, 0.68069, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68146, 0.6829
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.68146 session high opens the 0.6829 ny range top, where pre-claims trade capped repeatedly
Close back below the ema50 at 0.68101 and the ema20 at 0.68069 would unwind the Asia rebound
A break of the 0.67966 sweep low negates the false break and puts price back under 0.6800
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia rebound · RSI 62 · price 0.68135
Early Asia dipped to a 0.67966 swing low, just under Thursday's 0.67975 NY low and the 0.6800 handle, then reversed 17 pips in one bar back above the ema20 and ema50. Price now sits at the 0.6815 prior high and the 38.2% fib of the London high-to-low drop, with RSI(14) up from 31 to 61.7 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.1 pips. The bounce comes with AUD near 10-month lows on Fed-RBA divergence.
Support: 0.6810, 0.68063, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68146, 0.68359
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6815 prior high opens the 50–61.8% fib zone toward 0.6821, with the 0.6836 london high beyond
Close back below the ema50 at 0.6810 and ema20 at 0.6806 weakens the false-break read
Loss of the 0.67966 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence through 0.6800
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Rebound inside a downtrend · RSI 63 · price 0.68129
Double bottom near 0.6800, testing range top.
An early-Asia sweep below the 0.6798 NY low to the 0.6797 asia low met demand and a 17-pip pop, forming a double bottom at the 0.6800 round number. AUD is still near 10-month lows on Fed-RBA divergence. Price is back above ema20 and ema50 and pressing the 0.6814 range top, the 50% retrace of the NY drop fib, with RSI(14) at 62.9 and ATR at 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.68099, 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68141, 0.68167, 0.68292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6814 range top opens the 61.8 fib at 0.6817, then the 0.6829 ny high
Slip back below ema50 at 0.6810 returns price to the overnight range
Failure to hold the 0.6797 asia low breaks the double bottom and the 0.6800 round number
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia sweep below NY low reclaimed; testing lower-highs cap.
Early Asia session swept the NY low (0.6797) to a sweep low at 0.6797, then a single 13-pip bar reclaimed 0.6800 and closed above ema20 and ema50 (0.6810), breaking the lower-highs line from the post-NY bounce high at 0.6814. RSI(14) jumped from 32 to 59 and ATR(14) expanded to 4.1 pips. The broader downtrend from the 0.6829 NY high, driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric and a firm USD near 19-month highs, is intact below that level. A test of the 0.6813 50% retrace of the NY drop is in progress.
Support: 0.68097, 0.68048, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68141, 0.68292
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6814 bounce high extends the retrace of the NY drop toward the 0.6829 NY high
Slip back below ema50 at 0.6810 and ema20 at 0.6805 turns the move into a false break of the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.6797 sweep low and 0.6800 confirms a fresh lower-low
US PPI at 13:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Fedspeak (Bowman, Daly) follows
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near 0.6800 · RSI 32 · price 0.68013
Lower highs since London high; tight Asian range at lows.
AUD/USD is back at the 0.6800 round number early in the Asia session. It printed a fresh session low at 0.6797 and edged under Thursday's NY low after the firm-USD selloff, then bounced. Price sits below a declining ema20 (0.6804) and ema50 (0.6810), and lower highs from the 0.6836 London high remain intact. RSI(14) is 32.4, near but not yet oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67966
Resistance: 0.68041, 0.68088, 0.68141
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 0.6797 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.6809 asian high and ema50 challenges the lower highs trendline
A reclaim of the 0.6814 ny high would break the post-NY lower-high structure
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Early Asia has slipped back below the 0.6800 psych level and is retesting the 0.67975 NY low, which printed during the Fed-driven USD bid. Lower highs from 0.68141 to the 0.68088 lower high cap a descending trendline, and price sits under a falling ema20 at 0.68047. RSI(14) at 31 is just above oversold, and ATR(14) is a compressed 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6800, 0.68047, 0.68088
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.67975 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.6800 psych and the ema20 at 0.68047 would mark the dip as a false break
Close above the 0.68088 lower high breaks the descending trendline
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.68141, now testing the 0.6800 psych floor.
Early Asia session is pressing the 0.6800 psych after a flat late-NY range, with the ny low at 0.67975 from the NY sell-off the next reference below. Lower highs off the 0.68141 bounce high keep price under the ema20 and ema50. RSI is at 40 and ATR has compressed to 3.2 pips, while the hawkish-Fed USD bid holds AUD at 10-month lows.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68054, 0.68088, 0.68141
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.67975 ny low breaks the late-NY floor and extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above the ema20 and the 0.68088 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline read
The bounce high at 0.68141 faded below the 50% fib of the NY sell-off; a reclaim of it neutralises the downtrend
US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk that could expand the compressed ATR
Tight range 0.6799–0.6809 after NY selloff low, lower highs intact.
USD strength on hawkish Fed repricing drove a NY selloff to a 0.67975 NY low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.68141 bounce high near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib. Since late NY into early Asia, price has compressed in a 0.6799–0.6809 band just above the 0.6800 round number. It sits below the ema20 (0.68056) and EMA50 (0.68109), with ATR(14) shrinking to 3.2 pips and RSI 39.9.
Support: 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.68056, 0.68088, 0.68141
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6800 round number and 0.67975 NY low breaks the range lower
M15 close above the ema20 and 0.6809 range top opens the 0.68141 bounce high
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight base · RSI 48 · price 0.68053
Lower highs from 0.6836; tight 0.6803–0.6809 range above 0.6800.
NY's USD-led selloff after the hawkish Fed repricing broke below the 0.6800 psych to a 0.67975 ny low. Since then AUDUSD has coiled in a 6-pip range between the 0.6803 range low and the 0.6809 range high into the early Asia session, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.1 pips. Price sits just above the ema20 but below the ema50 at 0.68113. The 0.68141 bounce high capped near the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY drop.
Support: 0.6803, 0.6800, 0.67975
Resistance: 0.6809, 0.68113, 0.68141
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6809 range high and the ema50 at 0.68113 tests the 0.68141 bounce high and the London-NY drop 38.2%
Failure to hold the 0.6803 range low exposes the 0.6800 psych and the 0.67975 ny low
Acceptance below the 0.67975 ny low extends the lower-low sequence