AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Intraday downswing from session high, now basing · RSI 55 · price 0.69448
Double top at 0.6967 then double bottom at 0.6936, late-NY range 0.6936–0.6947.
London extended the Asia-session breakout to a 0.6967 session high. A failed retest at 0.6966 in NY formed a double top, and the pair slid to a 0.6936 NY low as USD steadied on Fed-hike bets. Late NY is compressing in a 10-pip band below the 0.6947 range top, sitting just above the 23.6% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6916
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6952, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6947 range top opens the 38.2% fib and the 0.6952 swing low (13:45 UTC pivot)
Break of the 0.6936 ny low voids the double bottom and exposes the 0.6916 asian low
Reclaiming 0.6967 session high would negate the double top
Friday close into weekend IMF meetings raises gap risk at the open
20:32 UTC
Down from day high, late-NY recovery · RSI 50 · price 0.69457
Lower high at 0.6966, double base at 0.6936, higher lows since.
London's push above the Asian range stalled at the 0.6966 day high, and NY gave the move back to a double base at the 0.6936 ny low as the USD steadied on Fed hike bets. Late NY has printed higher lows into 0.6947, where the asian high meets the 38.2% fib of the day-high selloff, with ATR(14) compressed near 4 pips into the Friday close.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6966
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6947 (asian high / 38.2% fib) opens the 50% retrace near 0.6952
Break of the higher low trendline near 0.6941 returns focus to the 0.6936 ny low
Failure to hold the 0.6936 ny low negates the double bottom read
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak headlines could gap the Monday open
20:16 UTC
Pullback from session high, stabilising late NY · RSI 49 · price 0.69449
Double top at 0.6966-67, lower low to 0.6936, tight base below Asian high.
London extended the break of the Asian high to a 0.6967 session high as US yields eased, but a second test at 0.6966 in NY was rejected. Price then fell to the 0.6936 NY low as the USD steadied on Fed hike bets. Late NY is basing between 0.6936 and 0.6945, just under the Asian high at 0.6949 and the 38.2% retrace of the double-top drop.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6918
Resistance: 0.6949, 0.6967
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6949 Asian high and the 38.2% retrace reopens 0.6958 and the 0.6967 session high
Failure to hold the 0.6936 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.6918 Asian low
Friday close and weekend IMF meetings bring gap risk into the Monday open
Double top at 0.6966-67, lower low at 0.6936, tight rising-lows consolidation below 0.6951.
London broke above the Asian range to a session high at 0.6967, and the NY retest at 0.6966 was rejected. That double top gave way below 0.6951 old support at 15:45 UTC, with the drop to the 0.6936 NY low coming as the USD steadied on hawkish Fed expectations. Late NY is basing on rising lows near 0.6941, capped just under the fib 38.2 at 0.6948 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.69414, 0.6936
Resistance: 0.69478, 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6951 old support (fib 50%) reopens the 0.6967 session high
Failure to hold the rising lows at 0.6941 exposes the 0.6936 NY low; a break below it confirms a lower-low
Weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) bring headline and Monday gap risk into a thin weekly close
Asia broke the overnight 0.6915–0.6925 range and London extended to a 0.6967 session high, but the 12:45 UTC retest failed for a double top. As the USD steadied on hawkish Fed expectations, NY shed about 30 pips to the 0.6936 NY low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-London leg. Late-Friday price is compressing between 0.6936 and the 0.6947 Asian high, capped by EMA20 near 0.6945.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6929
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6952, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6947 Asian high and 0.6952 London low breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.6936 NY low exposes the 0.6929 spike base
Retest of the 0.6967 double top would require reclaiming the full NY-session drop
Thin weekly-close liquidity and weekend IMF meeting headlines could gap the open
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, decline stalling late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.69446
Lower highs below 0.6951 broken floor; base at 0.6936 NY low.
London set the session high at 0.6967. NY's retest at 0.6966 failed, forming a double top that broke the 0.6951 broken floor as the USD steadied on hawkish-Fed expectations. Late in NY hours price is consolidating above the 0.6936 NY low (tested twice), capped by the 0.6947 bounce high near the 38.2% retrace, with lower highs intact.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 broken floor (50% retrace) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6936 NY low exposes the 0.6926 Asia base, where the Asian-session spike began
0.6967 session high stays the cap unless the double top is reclaimed
Thin liquidity into the weekly close and IMF meetings Oct 17–18 could materially shift this read at the open
19:16 UTC
Downtrend from London high, late-NY stabilising · RSI 44 · price 0.6944
Double top broke its neckline; lower highs, twin lows at 0.6936.
A double top at 0.6967 (London high, retested in NY) gave way below the 0.6951 neckline as the USD steadied on hawkish Fed expectations and firm US data. Price slid to twin lows at 0.6936, and the late-NY bounce is stalling under the 0.6947 bounce high and the descending highs line. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR runs about 5 pips.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6936 twin lows extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6926 asia base
A reclaim of the 0.6947 bounce high and the descending highs line opens a retest of the 0.6951 neckline near the 50% fib of the NY sell-off
Liquidity is thin into the Friday close; weekend IMF meeting headlines on Fed pricing could shift this read at the open
Lower highs since London peak; double-top neckline broken, price back inside Asian range.
AUD/USD faded from the 0.6967 day high set in London as the USD steadied on hawkish-Fed expectations. A lower high at 0.6966 in NY completed a double top, and the break of the 0.6951 neckline pulled price back below the 0.6947 Asian high. Late NY trade is holding just above the 0.6936 session low, tested twice, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6918
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6947 Asian high (38.2% fib) tests the descending trendline from the NY lower high
Reclaim of the 0.6951 neckline would negate the double top read
Failure at the 0.6936 session low exposes the 0.6918 Asian low
Thin late-Friday liquidity; IMF meetings Oct 17–18 and Fed-speak headlines could shift this read at the open
18:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.69422
Double top 0.6966-67 broken, lower highs, base at 0.6936.
A double top at the 0.6967 day high gave way through the 0.6951 neckline during NY hours as the USD steadied on the industrial production and import price beats, unwinding AUD's earlier gains. Demand has held the 0.6936 session low three times since, and price is now chopping between 0.6936 and the 0.6947 bounce high, back inside the Asian range, under the NY downtrend line.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6916
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6936 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6916 asian low
Recovery above the 0.6947 bounce high and the NY downtrend line opens a retest of the 0.6951 neckline / 50% fib
Thin liquidity into the weekend close; IMF or Fed headlines and the pending US Budget Statement could shift this read
Double top at 0.6967/0.6966, neckline 0.6951 broken; lower highs into 0.6936.
London extended the Asian-range breakout to a 0.6967 session high, but the NY retest at 0.6966 met rejection and the 15:45 UTC break of the 0.6951 neckline completed a double top as the USD steadied on hawkish Fed pricing. Late NY, price is holding a 0.6936 session low twice and is back inside the Asian range. RSI(14) sits near 35 and the 0.6947 Asian high plus the descending highs line cap the bounce.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6918
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6947 Asian high, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the 0.6967–0.6936 drop, breaks the descending highs line and opens a retest of the 0.6951 neckline
Reclaim of the 0.6951 neckline negates the double top read; the 0.6967 session high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.6936 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6918 Asian low
Friday close in thin post-London liquidity; weekend IMF/Fed headlines could shift this read at the reopen
18:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 31 · price 0.69395
Double top at 0.6967/0.6966, broke 0.6951 swing low, basing at 0.6936 NY low.
London extended the Asia spike to a 0.6967 day high as US yields eased, but the NY retest at 0.6966 failed and price broke the 0.6951 swing low, completing a double top. Lower highs since then have capped price under the descending trendline, and two touches of the 0.6936 NY low are holding late in the Friday NY session with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6929
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6936 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6929 asia base
Reclaim of the 0.6947 asian high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.6951 swing low sits just above
Thin Friday close: weekend IMF headlines and Fed-speak raise gap risk around the 0.6967 day high / 0.6936 range
18:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from session high, lower highs in NY · RSI 32 · price 0.69384
Double top at 0.6967, neckline at 0.6951 broken, lower-high sequence.
The Asia–London rally, driven by USD softness, carried price out of the Asian range and topped twice near 0.6967 (double top). NY broke the 0.6951 neckline and ran to a 0.6936 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 0.6947 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib and the lower-high trendline, and price is back on the ny low late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.69363, 0.69157
Resistance: 0.69466, 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6936 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6916 asian low
Recovery above the 0.6951 neckline negates the double top read
Break of the lower-high trendline through the 0.6947 bounce high shifts structure back to range
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could distort late NY prints
17:46 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs off session high · RSI 37 · price 0.69425
Double top at 0.6966/0.6967, lower-high/lower-low sequence through NY.
The Asia and London rally from 0.6917 topped out in a double top at 0.6966/0.6967. NY then gave back the London gains, carving lower highs down to a 0.6936 NY low, back inside the Asian range despite the broad post-Warsh USD softness. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.6947, just under the Asian high and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, with price now below both EMAs.
Support: 0.6936, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6947, 0.6951, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 prior low and the NY trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6936 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.6926 asia base
Rejection again at the 0.6947 asian high and 38.2% fib keeps the NY downtrend structure intact
US Budget Statement 18:00 UTC and thin late-Friday liquidity can exaggerate moves around these levels
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the session high, momentum stretched · RSI 32 · price 0.69395
Double top at 0.6967/0.6966, neckline 0.6951 broken; lower highs and lower lows through late NY.
London extended the Asian breakout to a 0.6967 session high. NY's retest at 0.6966 failed and formed a double top, and price broke the 0.6951 neckline and slid 30 pips to the 0.6936 NY low. RSI(14) sits near 32 as the USD-led bounce stalls, with soft Aussie jobs data still capping AUD.
Support: 0.69363, 0.6926, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6936 ny low exposes the 0.6926 asia base and then the 0.6900 round number
Recovery through the 0.6951 neckline (50% retrace of the session high-to-low drop) would neutralise the double top read
Friday liquidity thins after NY close; the US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is the only scheduled event left
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, accelerating into late NY · RSI 29 · price 0.6937
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken 0.6951 neckline.
A double top formed at 0.6966-67, with the London high retested at 14:45 UTC. It gave way in the NY afternoon, breaking the 0.6951 neckline and the 0.6942 breakdown area, and has erased most of the Asian-session spike. Price now sits at 0.6937 with a clean lower-high sequence and RSI(14) near 29, as the USD-led bounce on softer yields fades and the soft AU jobs data keeps a lid on AUD.
Support: 0.6929, 0.6916, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6942, 0.6951
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6942 breakdown area and the lower-high trendline would stall the NY sell-off
Reclaim of the 0.6951 neckline, the 50% of the NY sell-off fib, negates the double-top read
Failure to hold the 0.6929 spike base exposes the 0.6916 asian low and the 0.6900 round number
Friday late-NY liquidity is thinning; US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF meetings are the remaining event risk
Double top at 0.6967, lower highs since, NY low being pressed.
The USD-softness rally that carried AUDUSD from the 0.6938 swing low to a 0.6967 session high stalled in London, and the NY retest at 0.6966 formed a double top. The 15:45 UTC break of the 0.6951 broken low extended to a 0.6942 NY low, which sits at the 78.6% of the London rally fib, RSI(14) at 36, with lower highs along the descending line after London close.
Support: 0.69415, 0.69375, 0.69175
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6942 NY low opens the 0.6938 swing low, then the 0.6918 Asian low
Recovery above the 0.6951 broken low and the descending line negates the lower-high sequence; the 0.6967 session high caps above
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the Friday close into weekend IMF headlines could shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs during NY · RSI 37 · price 0.69447
Double top at 0.6966-67, neckline broken, London gains unwound.
London extended the Asian spike to a 0.6967 session high, but NY printed a lower high at 0.6966 and broke the 0.6951 neckline. The resulting double top has retraced roughly 75% of the Asia-London leg and pushed price back below the 0.6948 asian high, with RSI(14) near 37 and the USD-yield-driven AUD bounce stalling.
Support: 0.69423, 0.69375, 0.6930
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.6942 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6938 swing low and the 0.6930 round number
A recovery above the 0.6951 neckline negates the double top read
A close above the ny down line from 0.6966 breaks the NY lower-high chain
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC; the thin calendar into the weekly close limits event risk
Double top at 0.6967 then NY break of the 0.6951 London-NY floor; lower high at 0.6966.
The Asia spike off the 0.6929 asia base, on softer US yields after Warsh, ran to a London double top at 0.6967. NY then printed a lower high at 0.6966 and broke the 0.6951 broken floor to a 0.6943 session low. Price is sitting on the 50% fib of the 0.6926–0.6967 advance, RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 0.69431, 0.69375, 0.6929
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6951 broken floor negates the range break
Failure at 0.6943 session low exposes the 0.69375 swing low and 61.8% fib near 0.6942
Loss of 0.6929 asia base fully unwinds the Asia advance
US Monthly Budget Statement 18:00 UTC and thin Friday-close liquidity could exaggerate moves
NY session printed a rejection at 0.6966, forming a double top with the London high. Price then broke the 0.6951 London low and sank back to the top of the Asian range, despite the broadly softer USD tone after Warsh. Price is steadying just above the 0.6943 session low, about 62% back into the London leg on the fib, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69431, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6951 london low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.6943 session low exposes the 0.6938 asia swing low and the London leg fib 78.6% zone
Recovery through the 0.6967 double top would invalidate the reversal read
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC, thin calendar into the weekend
Double top at 0.6966-67, neckline 0.6951 broken; testing Asian high.
AUD climbed out of the Asian range as the USD softened on lower yields after Warsh, and London set the 0.6967 session high. The NY retest at 0.6966 was rejected, completing a double top, and the 15:45 UTC bar broke the 0.6951 neckline. Price now sits on the Asian high and the 38.2% fib at 0.6947, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6941, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6966
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.6951 neckline negates the double top break
Failure to hold the 0.6947 Asian high / 38.2% exposes the 0.6941 fib 50% and the 0.6938 swing low
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Fed commentary at the weekend IMF meetings could shift USD tone
Post-London-close liquidity is thin, so moves through 0.6947 may extend further than the ~4.7-pip ATR
0.6951–0.6967 range above broken Asian high, rising lows intact.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.6949 and set a 0.6967 session high. Softer US yields after Warsh drove the move. NY retested the high at 0.6966 and was rejected, leaving price mid-range near the 38.2% fib of the London leg, with RSI(14) flat near 46. The 0.6951 swing low sits on the 50% fib and the rising lows line from the 0.6938 asia pivot.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6951 swing low breaks the rising lows and turns the twin session highs into a double top, exposing the 0.6938 asia pivot
M15 close above the 0.6967 session high opens the path to 0.7000 psych
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and Friday weekly close into weekend IMF Fed commentary could shift this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling below the session high · RSI 48 · price 0.69568
0.6951–0.6967 range since London; NY lower high at 0.6966.
London broke the Asian high at 0.6949 on broad USD softness after Warsh and set a 0.6967 session high. The pullback held the 0.6951 range floor near the 50% retrace of the London leg. NY's push back to 0.6966 was rejected, leaving a lower high with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6949
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.6951 range floor breaks the range and puts the 0.6949 Asian high / 61.8% fib in play
A close above the 0.6967 session high voids the lower-high read and opens the path toward 0.7000 psych
The US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and thin pre-weekend liquidity after London close can distort the range edges
15:16 UTC
Range-bound after Asia rally, NY pushes stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.6959
0.6951–0.6967 range since London; lower high at 0.6966 vs session high.
AUD/USD has held a 0.6951–0.6967 range since London, after the Asia-session jump through 0.6930 as US yields slipped post-Warsh. NY held the 0.6951 ny low twice, close to the 50% retrace of the 0.6938–0.6967 leg, but the latest push was rejected at 0.6966 just under the session high; RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6949
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6967 session high breaks the range top; the 0.7000 psych level is the next reference above
Loss of the 0.6951 ny low and the rising support line exposes the 0.6949 asian high and the Asia breakout zone
Friday London close and thinning late-NY liquidity into the weekend; the US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is typically low impact
AUD climbed through the Asian high at 0.6947 during London on softer USD after Warsh, topping at the 0.6967 day high. The NY dip held 0.6951 twice at the 50% of the London leg fib, and price is back testing the day high with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.6951, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6967 day high extends the uptrend toward the 0.7000 psych level
Break below the 0.6951 ny low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain, exposing the 0.6947 asian high
Loss of the 0.6938 swing low unwinds the London leg
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact; weekend IMF remarks are the larger gap risk into Monday
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, pullback held · RSI 53 · price 0.6960
Higher low at 0.6951 above the Asian high, rebounding toward 0.6967.
Falling US yields after Warsh lifted AUD out of the 0.6916–0.6949 Asian range. London extended the move to a 0.6967 session high. Early NY pulled back to retest the Asian high zone, and demand held a 0.6951 NY low four times; price is now back at 0.6960 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6949, 0.6944
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6951 NY low and the 0.6949 Asian high breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.6944
Close above the 0.6967 session high resumes the London leg, with the 0.7000 psych cap above
Rising support trendline from the 0.6938 Asia pivot: a break below it turns the pullback into a range
Thin calendar; US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is minor, so yields remain the driver
14:31 UTC
Uptrend, pullback in progress · RSI 45 · price 0.69573
London high capped, lower highs onto 0.6951 base.
Softer US yields after Warsh's remarks lifted AUD. London broke the Asian high at 0.6949 and printed a London high at 0.6967 before lower highs set in. Buyers stepped in twice at 0.6951 (twin lows) into the NY open, just above the asian high, with price now pinned near 0.6960 and 23.6% of the Asia-London leg.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6949
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6949 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and undercuts the breakout read
Close above the lower highs line near 0.6960 and then 0.6967 london high resumes the higher-high sequence
0.7000 psych sits within one session's reach if the London high gives way
Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC is low impact; US yields remain the main driver of this read
Lower highs from 0.6967 against an NY low near 0.6951, compressing.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.6947 and ran to a 0.6967 session high as softer yields kept USD heavy. Since then the pair has printed lower highs under 0.6961, with the NY low at 0.6951 holding twice near the 50% fib of the 0.6938 pre-ldn low to session high leg. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46, and today's US IP and import-price beats have not lifted the dollar.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6947, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6951 NY low breaks the rising support and puts the 0.6947 Asian high on retest
Failure at the 0.6947 Asian high exposes the 0.6938 pre-ldn low, the base of the London leg
Close above the 0.6961 lower high reopens the 0.6967 session high; through there, the 0.7000 psych level is the next reference
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and long-end yield moves could shift the read into the NY close
Lower highs off the 0.6967 London high; NY low at 0.6951 holding twice.
London broke the Asian high at 0.6947 and ran to a 0.6967 session high as softer US yields kept the USD offered. NY has since printed lower highs and pulled back to 0.6951, roughly the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg, where the NY low has held on two tests during the first hour of NY; RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 0.6951, 0.6947, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6967
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6951 NY low puts the 0.6947 Asian high retest in play
Loss of 0.6947 opens the 0.69375 Asian low, the 100% retrace of the leg
Close above the 0.6961 lower high breaks the descending sequence toward the 0.6967 session high
Friday late-NY liquidity and weekend IMF Fed-speak (Oct 17–18) could shift USD tone
13:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, now pulling back · RSI 36 · price 0.69523
Lower highs off 0.6967 session high, testing NY low above Asian high.
London extended the Asian range breakout to a 0.6967 session high as softer US yields weighed on USD. Since then price has printed lower highs and is sitting on the 0.6951 NY low, about a 23.6% retrace of the leg from 0.6916. RSI(14) is near 36 and price is below EMA20, with the Asian high, EMA50 and the 38.2% fib clustered at 0.6947-0.6949.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69493, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69609, 0.69669
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6949 Asian high and EMA50 puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.6938 swing low
M15 close above the 0.6961 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.6967 session high
Thin calendar today; the US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF Fed-speak are the next USD risks for this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 41 · price 0.69551
Lower highs since 0.6967 high; holding above Asian range top.
London broke the Asian high at 0.6948 and ran to a 0.6967 session high as USD softened on lower yields. Since late London the pair has printed lower highs, and the NY low at 0.6951 sits near the 50% retrace of the 0.6938–0.6967 London leg, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.69514, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69609, 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6951 NY low puts the 0.6948 Asian high and 61.8% fib confluence up for a retest
Failure to hold 0.6948 reopens the 0.6938 swing low and erases the London breakout
Reclaim of the 0.6961 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 0.6967 session high back in play
0.7000 psych sits above the session high as the next marked level
A rebound in US yields into the weekly USD close could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 45 · price 0.69557
London HH at 0.6967, lower highs since; pullback low 0.6952 holding above Asian high.
Softer USD and lower yields drove a break of the Asian high at London open, extending to a session high at 0.6967 before lower highs set in. The early-NY pullback found demand at 0.6952, the ny low and 50% fib of the Asia-London leg, still above the 0.6949 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.69518, 0.6949, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production (13:15 UTC, f/c 0.4%) lands on the current bar and could break the 0.6952 ny low or the 0.6961 lower high
Failure to hold 0.6949 asia high turns the London breakout into a false break, exposing the 0.6938 swing low
M15 close above the 0.6961 lower high breaks the trendline and reopens the 0.6967 session high, then 0.7000 psych
London base at 0.6955 broken, lower-high sequence from 0.6967.
Softer US yields carried AUDUSD up the Asia-London leg. The pair broke the Asia high and printed a 0.6967 session high in London, but the run into NY open has produced lower highs. Price has slipped below the 0.6955 London base, with the Asia high at 0.6948 (38.2% fib) the next support below.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6961, 0.69669
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands inside the next bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.6955 London base negates the break
Close above the 0.6961 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.6948 Asia high exposes the 0.6938 swing low
Retest of the 0.6967 session high is the level for rejection or break
12:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 42 · price 0.69545
Lower highs since the 0.6967 London high; price testing the 0.6955 london base.
Warsh's IMF remarks at 03:30 UTC lifted the pair through 0.6930, and London open broke the 0.6948 asian high on softer USD and yields, extending to a 0.6967 session high. Since 10:30 UTC it has printed lower highs, and late London is pressing the 0.6955 london base. That level sits at the 38.2% of the London leg, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.69548, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69623, 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 london base exposes the 0.6948 asian high (61.8% of the London leg) and the 0.6938 swing low
Reclaiming the 0.6962 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; a close above the 0.6967 session high reopens the 0.7000 psych level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%), ahead of NY open, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asia; shallow pullback holding 38.2% retracement.
Softer USD after Warsh's IMF remarks lifted AUDUSD through the asian high at 0.6947. London extended to a session high of 0.6967. The pullback since has stalled on the 0.6956 shelf, the 38.2% of the 0.6938–0.6967 leg, with price just under EMA20 and RSI(14) back to 46.
Support: 0.69556, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
Failure to hold the 0.6956 shelf and rising trendline exposes the asian high at 0.6947 and the swing low at 0.6938
Close back above the 0.6962 range top and the 0.6967 session high resumes the HH chain, with 0.7000 psych next
12:16 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 46 · price 0.6957
HH/HL chain from Asia; failed hold above London top, testing London low.
AUD/USD broke out of the Asian range on a softer USD after Warsh's 03:30 UTC IMF remarks. London ran to a 0.6967 session high but could not hold above the 0.6962 London top. Price now sits on the 0.6955 London low, the 38.2% fib of the 0.6938–0.6967 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 late in London.
Support: 0.6955, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 London low exposes the 0.69475 Asian high and the 61.8% fib
Recovery above the 0.6962 London top reopens the 0.6967 session high; beyond it sits 0.7000 psych
Loss of the 0.6938 swing low breaks the higher-low chain from the Warsh move
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read into the NY open
HH/HL chain since Asia, London pullback to 38.2% fib.
AUD/USD broke the 0.6948 Asian high at London open as the USD slide extended, then printed a session high at 0.6967. Price has eased back to the 38.2% fib near 0.6956, holding above the 0.6955 London low and rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.69547, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 london low and rising support exposes the 0.6948 asian high and the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold 0.6948 would put the 0.6938 swing low in focus and break the HH/HL chain
Reclaim of the 0.6967 session high reopens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, around NY open, could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 49 · price 0.69575
HH/HL chain from 0.6926, now testing London range floor.
A softer USD and the Warsh remarks in the Asia session lifted the pair from the 0.6926 swing low through the 0.6947 Asian high. London extended the move to a 0.6967 session high before rolling over. Price is now back at the 0.6955 London low late in London, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and the prior high at 0.6962 overhead.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6947, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.6955 London low exposes the 0.6947 Asian high and the 50% fib
Failure to hold 0.6938 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Reclaiming the 0.6962 prior high and the 0.6967 session high reopens the path toward 0.7000 psych
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian range breakout; shallow pullback off 0.6967 high.
AUD jumped 18 pips during Asia on Warsh's no-guidance speech and softer US yields. London then broke the 0.6947 Asia high and set a 0.6967 session high around 10:30 UTC. Price is drifting back toward 0.6960, sitting just under EMA20, with the 0.6955 swing low lining up with the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
Support: 0.69552, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 swing low / 38.2% fib exposes the 0.6947 Asia high for a retest
Break and hold above the 0.6967 session high reopens the 0.7000 psych level
Failure below the 0.6938 Asia pb low would void the HL sequence
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read at the London-NY transition
HH/HL chain from 0.6938 Asian low; London broke the Asian range, now pulling back from 0.6967.
Lower US yields after Warsh's 03:30 UTC remarks lifted AUD through the 0.6948 asian high. London extended the move to a 0.6967 session high by 10:30 UTC. Price has since eased to a 0.6960 pullback low just above EMA20, with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6955, 0.6948
Resistance: 0.6967, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.6955 london floor, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, keeps the HH/HL chain intact; a break there shifts focus back to the 0.6948 asian high
M15 close above the 0.6967 session high opens the path toward 0.7000 psych
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) lands near the NY open and could materially shift this read
USD softness after Warsh's no-guidance remarks lifted AUDUSD from the 0.6938 swing low through the 0.6949 asian high at London open. London has built higher lows off 0.6955 into a 0.6967 session high. Price is now easing to 0.6962 above EMA20, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 0.69547, 0.69493, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6967 session high opens the path to 0.7000 psych.
Holding the 0.6955 london low (38.2% fib) and rising support keeps the higher-low chain intact.
An M15 close back below the 0.6949 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could shift the USD leg into NY open.
London consolidation 0.6955–0.6962 broken higher; HH/HL chain since the Asian spike.
AUDUSD cleared the Asian range on the London open, consolidated at 0.6955–0.6962 and broke the range top to a 0.6967 session high as USD stays soft on lower Treasury yields after Warsh's non-committal remarks. The 38.2% fib of the 0.6938 swing low to session high leg sits on the london low near 0.6955, and the rising trendline runs near 0.6959. RSI(14) ~66 is firm, not stretched; ATR is about 3.6 pips with NY yet to open.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6955, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69669, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.6962 range top puts price back inside the London consolidation
A break of the 0.6955 london low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.6938 swing low
Acceptance above the 0.6967 session high leaves the 0.7000 psych level, which capped Wednesday, about 35 pips overhead
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain; London broke above Asian high and its own range top.
Softer USD after Warsh's speech lifted AUDUSD through the Asian high at 0.6947. Mid-London, price cleared the 0.6955–0.6962 range top to a 0.6967 session high on a chain of rising lows. RSI(14) is near 70 and ATR(14) is about 3.8 pips; the fib swing from Thursday's 0.6894 low has its 38.2% at the 0.6939 pullback low.
Support: 0.6962, 0.69547, 0.69475
Resistance: 0.69668, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.6962 range top keeps the London breakout intact; slipping back inside signals a false break
An M15 close below the 0.6955 range low breaks the rising lows trendline and the HL chain, putting the asian high at 0.6947 back in play
Extension above the 0.6967 session high leaves the 0.7000 psych level, about 34 pips away, as the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, during the London-NY transition, could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 70 · price 0.69638
London range top broken, fresh session high at 0.6965.
Warsh's non-committal remarks at 03:30 UTC softened the USD and lifted AUDUSD from 0.6926 in Asia. London took out the asian high at 0.6947 on the open, then held a 0.6955–0.6962 range before the latest bar cleared the range top to a session high at 0.6965. RSI(14) is near 70, firm but not stretched, and rising lows from 0.6938 remain intact.
Support: 0.6962, 0.69547, 0.69475
Resistance: 0.69648, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6962 range top marks the breakout as a false break
Loss of the london low at 0.6955 breaks the rising lows and the 38.2% of the london leg fib
Holding above the session high at 0.6965 leaves the 0.7000 psych level, rejected after US CPI, as the next reference
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Return inside the Asian range below 0.6947 would unwind the London breakout
Asian range break higher, now a tight 0.6955–0.6962 hold.
AUD jumped about 17 pips on the softer USD after Warsh at 03:45 UTC, then London opened by clearing the asia high at 0.6948 and printed a session high at 0.6962. Price has held a 3-hour 0.6955–0.6962 band since, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR compressing to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6955, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 session high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6955 london low exposes a retest of the 0.6948 asia high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib
Break below the 0.6938 swing low undoes the London leg higher
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since 0.6938; tight London consolidation above broken Asian high.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.6948 and ran to a 0.6962 session high. That extends the rally from Thursday's post-PPI low at 0.6894 as the USD stays heavy after Warsh. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 0.6955 London low and the session high, holding above rising support with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 0.69547, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6962 session high opens the path toward the 0.7000 round number, where the digest notes a prior rejection
M15 close below the 0.6955 London low breaks rising support and exposes the Asian high at 0.6948 for a retest
Failure to hold the 0.6938 swing low unwinds the post-Warsh HH/HL chain
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (NY session) could shift the USD-driven read
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 76 · price 0.69615
Higher-high/higher-low chain from the 0.6894 NY low; tight London range 0.6955–0.6962.
AUDUSD has built higher lows since the post-US-data NY low at 0.6894. A soft USD after Warsh lifted it out of the Asian range through the 0.6947 prior high, and London extended to a 0.6962 session high. Since London open price has consolidated in a 0.6955–0.6962 band, with the London low holding above the higher-lows line and RSI(14) at 76 running hot.
Support: 0.69548, 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.6962, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6955 London low breaks the micro higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.6947 prior high exposes the 0.6938 swing low and the higher-lows trendline
Close above the 0.6962 session high leaves 0.7000 psych, rejected earlier this week, as the next reference
US Industrial Production and import prices at 13:15 UTC (NY session) could shift the USD-driven read
HH/HL chain since yesterday's 0.6894 low; London broke above the Asian range and is compressing at the top.
AUDUSD has recovered about 67 pips from yesterday's 0.6894 low after the US data, and broke the 0.6948 asian high at London open as the USD softened after Warsh's non-committal remarks. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 6-pip band between the 0.6955 london low and the 0.6961 session high, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6948, 0.6938
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6961 session high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6955 london low puts the 0.6948 asian high retest and the 50% of the London leg near 0.6949 in play
A break below the 0.6938 swing low undoes the London breakout
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (16:15 broker time) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asian range break higher, HH/HL chain intact, tight consolidation.
Softer USD after Warsh carried AUD/USD off Thursday's sub-0.6900 data lows. London open cleared the 0.6947 asian high to a 0.6961 session high. Price is now compressing in a 0.6955–0.6961 band above the london low, with RSI(14) near 67 and rising support from the 0.6938 swing low intact.
Support: 0.69552, 0.6947, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69613, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6961 session high opens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level, rejected earlier in the week
Failure to hold the 0.6955 london low exposes the 0.6947 asian high as the breakout retest
Close back below 0.6938 swing low breaks the rising support and negates the HH/HL chain
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback after London push · RSI 64 · price 0.69565
Higher lows since NY low; Asian range broken higher.
London open broke above the Asian high at 0.69475 and printed a session high at 0.69613. USD softness after Warsh's non-committal IMF remarks extended the bounce from yesterday's NY low near 0.6894. Price is easing to 0.6956 with RSI(14) cooling to ~64, and the higher-lows chain is intact above the 0.69375 swing low.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69613, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Pullback losing the asian high at 0.69475 would turn the London breakout into a false break
M15 close below the 0.69375 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain
Acceptance above the 0.69613 session high opens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending at London open · RSI 72 · price 0.6960
HH/HL chain since Thursday's 0.6894 NY low; Asian high broken.
Warsh's non-committal IMF remarks and softer yields lifted the pair through the Asian session, with a 03:45 UTC spike to the 0.6947 Asian high. London open broke that level and printed a 0.6961 session high, RSI(14) near 72. Successive higher lows at 0.6926 and the 0.6938 swing low keep the intraday sequence intact.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69613, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.6947 Asian high on any pullback keeps the London breakout valid; a drop back inside the Asian range reads as a false break
M15 close below the 0.6938 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain
0.7000 round number capped Wednesday's high, 40 pips above the session high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the read via USD
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, early London extension · RSI 70 · price 0.69575
Higher lows; Asian range high broken at London open.
London open cleared the 0.6948 Asian high and stretched the post-Warsh relief bounce to a 0.6961 session high as the USD stays heavy. RSI(14) is near 70 and the higher-low trendline off the 0.6938 swing low is intact. The 0.7000 round number that capped the week sits about 40 pips above.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375
Resistance: 0.69613, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6948 Asian high returns price to the post-Warsh range
Break of the 0.6938 swing low ends the higher-low trendline sequence
Rejection or break at the 0.6961 session high; 0.7000 round number is the next cap above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 74 · price 0.6958
HH/HL chain; overnight high broken at London open.
London open broke the 0.6947 overnight high, which capped three times in late Asia, and the London leg ran from the 0.6938 swing low to a 0.6961 session high as broad USD softness after Warsh's non-committal remarks carried through. RSI(14) near 74, hot but not stretched, and a rising trendline from the 0.6926 spike base sits under the move.
Support: 0.6947, 0.6938, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.6947 overnight high keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below it reads as a false break
Loss of the 0.6938 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.6926 spike base
0.6961 session high is first resistance, then the 0.7000 psych level where Wednesday's rally was rejected
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift USD during NY hours
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 68 · price 0.69556
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.6916 Asian low.
The non-committal Warsh speech and broad USD softness lifted the pair from 0.6933 to 0.6947 in Asia. London open then broke that prior high to a 0.6956 session high, clearing the 0.6945-0.6950 cap and extending a higher-low chain off the 0.6916 asian low. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375, 0.69157
Resistance: 0.69559, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A failed retest of the 0.6948 prior high turns the London breakout into a false break
An M15 close below the 0.6938 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the asian low at 0.6916
The 0.7000 psych level is the next reference above the session high and capped the pair on Wednesday
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into London open · RSI 73 · price 0.69507
Higher-low chain from 0.6894; Asian high at 0.6948 being tested from above.
AUDUSD has fully reversed Thursday's post-data flush to 0.6894, grinding higher through Asia on a softer USD after Warsh's non-committal remarks. The spike stalled at the 0.6948 Asian high, and the pullback held at the 0.6938 swing low, right on the 38.2% fib. The London open is now pressing just above the Asian high into the 0.6950 rally cap. RSI(14) near 73 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.69475, 0.69375, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69508, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6948 Asian high would mark a false break of the Asian range
Losing the 0.6938 swing low (38.2% fib, rising-lows line) breaks the higher-low chain
A break of the 0.6926 pre-spike low unwinds the Warsh move
Sustained trade above the 0.6951 session high leaves 0.7000 psych as the next cap
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 62 · price 0.69466
Impulsive Asian breakout, then a tight range below 0.6948 with a higher low at 0.6937.
Warsh's non-committal remarks during the Asia session lifted AUDUSD about 18 pips through the 0.6933 range top. The 0.6947–0.6948 Asian high has capped four bars since, just under the 0.6950 round number. The pullback held a higher low at 0.6937, and price is back at the cap into the London open, about 53 pips off the 0.6894 NY low after the jobs-driven selloff.
Support: 0.69375, 0.69268, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6950
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 Asian high and the 0.6950 round number breaks the cap the digest flags as the rally ceiling
Failure to hold the 0.6937 higher low exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.6927, the base of the Asian spike
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Asia breakout above 0.6933, flat top at 0.69475, shallow pullback holding.
Asia session broke above its 0.6916–0.6933 range with a one-bar spike from the 0.6926 spike base to 0.6947, as USD eased after Warsh's non-committal remarks. Three tests of the 0.69475 session high have capped since. The pullback held the 0.69375 swing low, above the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, and price is basing there into London open.
Support: 0.69375, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6950
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69475 session high puts the 0.6950 psych level in play, a zone the digest flags as a rally cap
Loss of the 0.69375 swing low exposes the 0.69333 breakout lvl; a close back below it unwinds the Asia breakout toward the 0.6926 spike base
London open is due shortly and typically resets the session range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4% m/m) could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Asia uptrend, fading off spike high · RSI 54 · price 0.69388
Warsh spike capped at 0.6947, pulling back into retrace.
Warsh's non-committal speech lifted AUDUSD about 20 pips off the 0.6926 spike base, but three bars stalled at the 0.6947 Asia high, which matches yesterday's London-open high. Price has since drifted back to the 38.2% retrace of the spike near 0.6939, with the ema20 at 0.6937 being tested in the last hour of the Asia session, ahead of London open.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6926, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6950
What it said to watch
Hold of the ema20 at 0.6937, which sits on the 50% retrace, keeps the post-Warsh higher-low structure intact
M15 close back above the 0.6947 Asia high exposes the 0.6950 round number
Loss of the 0.6926 spike base unwinds the Warsh move and puts the 0.6894 NY low back in view
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Warsh-driven breakout from the Asian range, now a tight pullback under a triple-tested cap.
Warsh's non-committal speech at 03:30 UTC added to USD softness and lifted AUD out of the 0.6916–0.6933 Asian range from a spike base at 0.6926 to a session high at 0.69475. Price has failed three times at 0.69475, the 0.6945–0.6950 cap flagged in the macro read, and is easing to the 0.6941 pullback low ahead of London open. The rising Asia trendline and the fib 61.8% both sit near the 0.6933 breakout level.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.69508
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.69475 session high exposes the 0.69508 prior high and the 0.6950 cap
Failure to hold the 0.6941 pullback low opens the fib 50%–61.8% zone at 0.6937–0.6934
Close back below the 0.6933 breakout and the Asia rising trendline puts the spike base at 0.6926 back in focus
London open could set direction from this tight range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher on Warsh spike, tight consolidation under the high.
Warsh's non-committal remarks at 03:30 UTC lifted the pair out of the 0.6916–0.6925 Asian range to the 0.6947 Warsh high. That move recovered most of yesterday's NY drop to 0.6894 after the hot US PPI. Late Asia is consolidating just under that high, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s. The 0.6941 swing low and the rising support line from the Asian low are holding the pullback for now.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6927
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.69508
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6951 prior high clears the 0.6950 cap and the session-open high from yesterday
Loss of the 0.6941 swing low exposes the 0.6933 pre-spike high, then the 0.6927 fib 38.2 at the spike base
London open in ~75 min is the first test of whether the Warsh high holds
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Intraday recovery off 0.6894 low, stalling below session high · RSI 66 · price 0.69428
Asia breakout leg, now a tight pullback under 0.6948.
AUDUSD jumped about 18 pips at 03:45 UTC from the 0.6926 spike base, clearing the 0.6933 breakout level as USD softened after Warsh's non-committal remarks. Price was then rejected three times at the 0.69475 session high and is now drifting toward the 0.6941 post-spike low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) cooling to about 66.
Support: 0.69407, 0.6933, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.69542
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6933 breakout level puts price back in the Asian base and exposes the 0.6926 spike base
Holding the 0.6937 50% retrace of the Warsh spike keeps the breakout leg intact
Close above the 0.69475 session high opens the 0.6950 digest cap and the 0.6954 prior high
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout from 0.6920–0.6933 base, tight consolidation 0.6941–0.6948.
Late in the Asia session, an 18-pip spike off the 0.6926 spike base cleared the 0.6933 breakout level after Warsh's non-committal remarks. It extends the rebound from the 0.6894 low printed after yesterday's hot US PPI. Price is now holding a tight 0.6941–0.6948 band, with the session high capping four tests and RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.6941, 0.6933, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6948, 0.6950, 0.6955
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 session high and the 0.6950 round number opens the 0.6955 24h high.
Loss of the 0.6941 spike low exposes the 0.6933 breakout level, near 50% of the Asia rally fib. Below the 0.6926 spike base, the breakout reads as a false break.
London open in ~2h and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Asian range break, tight hold below 0.6948 session high.
Modest USD selling after Warsh's non-committal remarks lifted AUD out of the 0.6915–0.6925 Asian range late in the Asia session. The 03:45 UTC bar ran roughly 18 pips through the 0.6933 breakout level, but price has since been capped three times at the 0.6948 session high, with RSI(14) near 72. Rising lows from yesterday's NY trough remain intact beneath.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6950
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6950 psych level opens yesterday's 0.6955 prior high
Break back below the 0.6941 spike low exposes the 0.6933 breakout level near the 61.8% of the breakout leg fib
Loss of the 0.6926 spike base returns price to the Asian range
London open in ~2h may test the session high cap
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended after Asia spike · RSI 73 · price 0.69468
Higher lows off 0.6894 low; Asian range broken higher.
Late in the Asia session, an 18-pip spike at 03:45 UTC cleared the 0.6918–0.6933 Asian range as the USD softened on Fed Chair Warsh's non-committal remarks. The move extends the rally and higher-low chain off yesterday's 0.6894 NY low. Price is now pinned under the 0.6948 session high, which has been tested three times, with RSI(14) near 73 and the 0.6941 spike low holding.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.69556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 session high opens the 0.6950 psych / 0.6956 prior high zone
Loss of the 0.6941 spike low puts the 0.6933 Asian high in play as a retest of the breakout
Close below the 0.6926 higher low on the trendline negates the breakout read
London open in ~2h, and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; HH/HL chain since the 0.6894 day low.
Late Asia session: price broke out of the 0.6915–0.6926 Asian range from 02:30 UTC, then printed a 19-pip spike to a 0.6948 session high as USD softened after Warsh's non-committal remarks. Price is holding just under that high, with the spike low at 0.6941 below. RSI(14) at 74 is firm but not extreme, and the 0.6933 breakout level sits near the 61.8% of the spike fib.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69475, 0.6956
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6948 session high opens the 0.6956 prior high, inside the 0.6945–0.6950 rally cap flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 0.6941 spike low puts the 0.6933 breakout level and the spike fib 50–61.8% zone in play
A break below the 0.6926 swing low and the asia hl line would undo the range-break read
London open could test the spike; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the USD leg
Higher lows since NY low at 0.6894; late-Asia range break above 0.6933.
USD sold off on Fed Chair Warsh's speech late in the Asia session. AUDUSD dipped to the 0.6926 pre-spike low, then jumped about 20 pips to a 0.6947 spike high, clearing the Asian high at 0.6933. The follow-up bar pulled back to 0.6941 and is holding there, with RSI(14) near 71 after the move. That pullback low and the rising lows from Thursday's NY session frame the structure, with Thursday's 0.6956 prior high overhead.
Support: 0.69407, 0.69333, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.69474, 0.6956
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6933 Asian high would turn the range break into a false break, exposing the 0.6926 pre-spike low
A close above the 0.6947 spike high opens the path to the 0.6956 prior high
A break of the 0.6941 pullback low signals the speech impulse is fading into the old range
Further Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the rising lows trendline from Thursday's NY session would weaken the higher-low structure
Higher lows off 0.6894; Asian range broken higher on Warsh spike.
An 18-pip spike as USD sold off around Warsh's 03:30 UTC speech cleared the Asian high near 0.6926 and the 0.6933 pre-speech high. It extends the higher-low chain off Thursday's 0.6894 post-PPI low. Late in the Asia session, price sits just under the 0.6956 prior high with RSI(14) near 78.
Support: 0.6933, 0.6926
Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6970
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.6933 pre-speech high would turn the spike into a false break
Holding the 0.6926 Asian high, near the 38.2% retracement of the rebound, keeps the higher-low sequence intact
A close above the 0.6956 prior high opens the 0.6970 Wed close
Follow-up Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift this read
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-data low · RSI 66 · price 0.69324
Higher lows since 0.6894; Asian range broken higher, holding above 0.6924.
Late in the Asia session, AUDUSD has lifted out of the 0.6915–0.6925 Asian range to a 0.6933 session high, extending the rebound from yesterday's 0.6894 post-US-data low. The Warsh speech bar dipped to 0.6926, holding above the 0.6924 breakout level and the rising trendline, then closed back near the highs.
Support: 0.6926, 0.6924, 0.6915
Resistance: 0.6933, 0.6943
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6924 breakout level puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.6926 Warsh low exposes the rising trendline, then the 0.6915 Asia low
Clearing the 0.6933 session high puts the 0.6943 breakdown level from yesterday's London selloff in play
Warsh headlines and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; London open is the next test of the post-data rebound
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since the US-data low · RSI 73 · price 0.69322
HH/HL chain; Asia broke above the Asian range high.
Thursday's hot US PPI and retail sales briefly flushed the pair to 0.6894, but it recovered as Treasury yields fell, and it has printed higher lows along a rising trendline since. Mid-Asia session, price cleared the Asian high at 0.6926 to a new session high at 0.6933, with RSI(14) warm near 73 but not stretched.
Support: 0.69258, 0.69204, 0.69157
Resistance: 0.69333, 0.69434
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaking now (03:30 UTC); a hawkish hike signal could reverse the Asia breakout quickly
Holding 0.6926 (asian high) as a retest keeps the breakout intact; a close back below it marks a false break
Loss of the 0.6920 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 0.6916 swing low
A close above the 0.6933 session high opens the path to the 0.6943 prior high from Thursday's London selloff
Higher lows since NY low; Asian range broken higher.
Mid-Asia session, price cleared the 0.6918–0.6926 Asian range and the NY high to print a session high at 0.6933, with RSI(14) near 78. The move extends the rebound from the 0.6894 prior low set after Thursday's AU jobs miss, helped by a softer USD as yields fall. The Asian high at 0.6926 is first support, and the London pivot at 0.6943 sits overhead.
Support: 0.6926, 0.6918, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6943, 0.6950
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, one bar after this read, and could materially shift it
M15 close back below the 0.6926 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Break of the Asia trendline and the 0.6918 Asian low (38.2% of the rebound fib) would unwind the Asian leg
Acceptance above the 0.6943 London pivot exposes the 0.6950 round number
Higher-low chain off 0.6894 NY low; Asian range cap broken.
The rebound from yesterday's 0.6894 low after the US data has built a higher-low chain. At 02:30 UTC, Asia broke the 0.6924–0.6926 cap, the post-NY high and the earlier Asian high, printing a 0.6931 session high with RSI(14) near 77. The push comes as USD stays soft on falling yields, about 30 minutes before Fed Chair Warsh speaks.
Support: 0.69255, 0.69204, 0.69071
Resistance: 0.6931, 0.69434
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A return below the 0.6925 asian high would mark the move as a false break
Loss of the 0.6920 swing low breaks the higher lows, exposing the 0.6907 ny low
A close above the 0.6943 prior swing reclaims yesterday's London breakdown zone; the 0.6931 session high is the first test
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asian range broken higher · RSI 71 · price 0.69299
HH/HL chain off the 0.6894 day low; Asian range 0.6916–0.6926 broken to the upside.
The 02:30 UTC bar broke the Asian range high at 0.6926 and printed a 0.6930 session high. That extends the higher-high/higher-low chain off Thursday's 0.6894 day low, set after the US data, as falling yields keep USD soft. RSI(14) is near 71 with ATR around 3 pips, running hot but not extreme into Warsh's speech.
Support: 0.69258, 0.69204, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69303, 0.69434, 0.69597
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
Slip back below the 0.6926 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
M15 close below the 0.6920 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and rising support
Clearance of the 0.6943 swing high opens the path toward the 0.6960 24h high
Rejection at the 0.6930 session high would keep the move contained near the old range
02:31 UTC
Recovering from day low, grinding higher · RSI 64 · price 0.69255
Higher lows since NY low, pressing Asian range top.
AUD/USD has printed higher lows since the 0.6894 day low set after the hot US data in NY hours. Price is now testing the 0.6926 asian high with RSI(14) near 64. The Asian range of 0.6916–0.6926 is tight, with ATR around 3 pips, ahead of Warsh's speech.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69258, 0.6930
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6926 asian high breaks the Asian range; the 0.6930 round number is the next cap overhead
Loss of the 0.6916 asian low and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 0.6907 ny swing low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~1h) and could materially shift this read; a break of the 0.6894 day low would resume Thursday's slide
Tight Asian range above rising support from the NY low.
Thursday's post-jobs slide from 0.6960 bottomed at the 0.6894 day low around the hot US PPI and retail data, and the rebound has stalled just under the 50% retracement. Asia session is compressing between the 0.6916 asian low and 0.6926 asian high, holding above rising support from the 0.6907 ny low. ATR is under 3 pips ahead of the Warsh speech.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69073, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69258, 0.69343
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.6926 asian high and the 50% retracement opens the 0.6934 london pivot
Loss of rising support and the 0.6916 asian low exposes the 0.6907 ny low, then the 0.6894 day low
Higher lows from 0.6907, capped at the 0.6926 asia high.
AUD/USD has climbed from the 0.6894 ppi low, which followed the jobs-driven selloff, into a tight Asian range of 0.6916–0.6926 with higher lows along the rising lows line. The push to the 0.6926 asia high briefly cleared the 0.6924 NY session high and then slipped back. ATR is near 3 pips ahead of Warsh.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69258, 0.6940
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with the USD reaction setting the next leg
An M15 close above the 0.6926 asia high opens the 0.6940 round number, where London consolidated before breaking lower
Failure to hold the rising lows line and the 0.6916 asia low exposes the 0.6907 swing low, then the 0.6894 ppi low
01:46 UTC
Recovering off NY low, higher lows · RSI 62 · price 0.69243
Higher lows from 0.6894; Asian range 0.6916–0.6926 probing NY high.
The AU jobs miss drove a London slide from the 0.6960 day high. The hot US PPI printed the 0.6894 NY low, then price recovered as the dollar faded on falling yields. Asia is now pressing the 0.6924 NY high and the 0.6926 asia high, near the 50% retrace of the selloff, with higher lows intact along the rising trendline.
Support: 0.6916, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6926, 0.6940, 0.6960
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.6927 (50% selloff fib) opens the 0.6940 breakdown area, then the 0.6960 day high
Loss of the 0.6916 asia low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.6907 swing low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read; a hike signal puts the 0.6894 ny low back in focus
ATR near 3 pips in thin Asia trade; expect range expansion around the speech
01:31 UTC
Recovering from post-PPI low, capped at 0.6924 · RSI 59 · price 0.69231
Tight Asian range 0.6916–0.6924 above rising lows.
AUD/USD extended its post-jobs slide to a 0.6894 post-PPI low before USD reversed lower on falling yields, lifting the pair back to 0.6924. That level, the NY high, is being retested as the Asian session range top. The Asian range of 0.6916–0.6924 sits on a line of rising lows and just under the 50% fib of the post-jobs decline at 0.6927. ATR(14) is near 2.4 pips ahead of Warsh.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268, 0.69597
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h) and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.6924 range top and the 50% fib at 0.6927 opens the path toward yesterday's Asian high near 0.6960
A break below the 0.6916 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6907 swing low, then the 0.6894 post-PPI low
Higher lows since 0.6894, Asian range capped at NY high.
After the jobs-miss slide and a PPI spike to the 0.6894 ppi low, USD weakness drove a rebound, and higher lows at 0.6907 and 0.6916 have since formed. Early Asia is pressing the 0.6924 ny high at the top of a tight 0.6916–0.6924 Asian range, with ATR down to ~2.6 pips ahead of Warsh.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69268
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 ny high breaks the Asian range and opens the 50% retrace of the 0.6960–0.6894 drop at 0.6927
Break below the 0.6916 asia low ends the higher-lows chain and exposes the 0.6907 swing low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~2h); a hawkish tilt could revisit the 0.6894 ppi low
01:03 UTC
Recovering from post-data low, now flat · RSI 56 · price 0.69211
Tight consolidation 0.6915–0.6924 above a higher low.
After a jobs-driven London slide, AUD/USD bottomed at the 0.6894 post-data low on the hot US PPI and retail sales during NY hours. It rebounded to 0.6924, and the 0.6907 higher low held near the 50% fib of that rebound. Price has compressed in a 0.6915 range floor to 0.6924 band since, and early Asia is pressing the top of it.
Support: 0.6915, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6936
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6924 post-data high breaks the consolidation and exposes the 0.6936 london shelf
Loss of the 0.6915 range floor shifts focus to the 0.6907 higher low; below there the 0.6894 post-data low is back in play
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (high impact) and could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Flat after rebound from post-jobs lows · RSI 53 · price 0.6920
Tight Asia range under NY high, higher low intact.
Asia session is compressing in a 0.6915–0.6924 range. Price was rejected again at the range top, which matches the NY high, and is holding just above the 38.2% retrace of the post-jobs decline from 0.6960 to 0.6894. The bounce from the 0.6894 NY low, set around the US PPI release, left a higher low at 0.6907. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is only about 2.6 pips ahead of Warsh.
Support: 0.6915, 0.6907, 0.6894
Resistance: 0.6924, 0.6927, 0.6930
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6924 range top brings the 50% retrace near 0.6927 and the prior shelf at 0.6930 into play
A break of the 0.6915 range low exposes the 0.6907 higher low, then the 0.6894 NY low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (about 2.75h away) and could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.69214
Higher lows off 0.6894, compressed below 0.6924 swing high.
AUD/USD slid from 0.6960 through London after the AU jobs miss and printed the day low at 0.6894 after the 12:30 UTC US PPI and retail data, then recovered as the USD faded on lower yields. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.6916–0.6923 range above the rising lows trendline, with the midnight spike rejected at the 0.6924 swing high and price sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 0.6961–0.6894 decline.
Support: 0.69157, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.69434
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.6924 swing high opens the 50% fib near 0.6927 and the 0.6943 london pivot
Break of the 0.6916 asian low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 0.6907 swing low, then the 0.6894 day low
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC, about 3h out, could materially shift this read
ATR near 2.4 pips reflects compressed pre-speech conditions; range expansion likely on the headline
00:16 UTC
Recovering off NY low, stalling below 0.6923 · RSI 55 · price 0.69217
Higher lows into flat 0.6923 cap, tight early-Asia range.
Thursday's AU jobs miss drove a slide from 0.6974 to a 0.6894 session low after the US data. The NY rebound has since stalled at 0.6923 equal highs, with higher lows at the 0.6907 NY pullback and 0.6915 compressing price into a tight early-Asia range. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 0.69155, 0.69072, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69235, 0.6930, 0.69445
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6923 equal highs exposes the 0.6930 breakdown area from London, then the 0.6945 Thursday Asia range low
Loss of the 0.6915 higher low and the higher-low line puts the 0.6907 NY pullback back in focus
Break below the 0.6894 session low resumes the post-jobs downtrend
Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC, about 3h out, and could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.6907, tight Asian range below NY high.
The AUD jobs miss (-39.3K) knocked the pair 30 pips lower on the release. The slide ran through London to a 0.6894 NY low around the hot US PPI and retail sales data. The rebound since then has printed a higher low at 0.6907, and early Asia is now compressing in a 0.6915–0.6923 band just under the 0.6924 NY high, with ATR down to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.69155, 0.69071, 0.68939
Resistance: 0.69236, 0.6930
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the compression
Close above the 0.6924 NY high opens the 0.6930 london pivot where the London breakdown accelerated
Close below the 0.6915 asian low puts the 0.6907 higher low back in play
Failure to hold 0.6907 shifts focus back to the 0.6894 ny low and resumes the downtrend sequence