AUDUSD rallied roughly 1.25% off the 0.6913 base to a 0.7021 peak on the soft US CPI-driven dollar pullback, then stalled right at the 50-day EMA near 0.7012 and slipped back below the 0.7000 handle. The higher-low sequence since early month remains intact while price holds above the 0.6966 swing low, but the fade off resistance on renewed USD haven bid has cooled momentum. ATR is mid-range, neither compressing nor expanding sharply.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7012, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7012 reopens the 0.7045 upside
Failure to hold 0.6966 swing low exposes the 0.6900 pivot
Australia jobs report Thu 23 Jul could reset this read
Higher-low structure intact since the ~0.6866 base; a ~1.25% two-day rally on the soft US CPI print ran into the 0.7012 50-day EMA / 0.7020 swing high and rolled over. Price is now retesting the 0.6965 area with ATR expanded on the impulse leg, so the round-number breakout has stalled rather than confirmed.
Support: 0.69656, 0.69123, 0.68884
Resistance: 0.7012, 0.70207
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 reopens the 0.7045 upside
Failure to hold 0.6965 threatens the higher-low sequence toward 0.6900
Australia jobs Thu Jul 23 could materially shift this read
AUDUSD has recovered ~1.5% off the 0.6866 lows in a series of higher lows, but the advance has stalled for four days beneath the 0.7000 handle and the 0.7012-0.7015 cap. Soft US CPI/PPI drove the leg higher, yet the failure to clear 0.7015 and the fade back to 0.6975 show supply capping the round number. ATR remains moderate with price coiling just under resistance.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6866
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7015, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015 clears the cap and opens the path toward 0.7045
Loss of 0.6962 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes 0.6866
HIGH-impact AU jobs Jul 23 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Price has recovered off the mid-June base near 0.6865 in a series of higher lows, but the rally stalled into the 0.7021 swing high and is now pinned under the 0.7000 round number for a fourth session. ATR(14) is compressing as the pair coils below the cap, and the leg up owed largely to this week's soft US CPI/PPI. Pullback to 0.6975 has price hovering at EMA20 while holding above the rising EMA50.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6913, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 opens the path toward 0.7045
Loss of the 0.6962 pivot exposes the 0.6913 range low
HIGH-impact AUD jobs Jul 23 01:30 UTC could break the coil
Higher lows since mid-month low, capped at 0.7000.
AUDUSD has recovered roughly 1.25% off the 0.6862 low, printing a clean sequence of higher lows powered by the soft US CPI print that pared Fed tightening bets. The rally has stalled into the 0.7000 handle and the 50-day EMA (~0.7012) for a fourth day, with the last two bars fading back toward the EMA20. ATR(14) has compressed near 16 pips as price coils just under the round-number cap.
Support: 0.69759, 0.6962, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7020, 0.7045
What it said to watch
Fourth day capped near 0.7000 / 50-day EMA ~0.7012 — area to watch for break or rejection
H4 close above 0.7020 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.6962 (9-day EMA) exposes the 0.6900 handle
AU Employment (Jul 23 01:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
AUDUSD recovered roughly 1.25% off the 0.6900 base this month, powered by the soft US CPI print, but the advance has stalled at the 0.7000 handle and 50-day EMA (~0.7012) for a fourth day. Price is consolidating in a tight 0.6976-0.7020 band with ATR(14) compressing, and the latest bar pulled back from the 0.70207 swing high to close near the lower edge. Higher-low structure since the early-month low remains intact while the pair balances below the psych cap.
Support: 0.69759, 0.6943, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7012, 0.70207
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7012 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.69759 confirms a lower-low and reopens 0.6900
AU Employment (Jul 23) and today's UoM sentiment could shift this read
AUDUSD ran ~1.25% off the 0.6913 low to tag 0.7021 on the soft US CPI/PPI-driven USD retreat, but the advance has stalled into the 0.7015 area / 50-day EMA cap. Structure remains higher-lows since early-month, though the latest bar rejected 0.7000 and slipped back to 0.6980, pressing the EMA20. This was a USD-down move rather than Aussie strength, leaving upside tied to further USD softness.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6943, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7021, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close and hold above 0.7015/0.7021 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.6962 exposes the 0.6943 swing low
Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC) and Australia Employment Jul 23 could shift this read
AUDUSD is in an uptrend off the early-month 0.68649 low, a ~1.25% rally driven almost entirely by soft US CPI/PPI weighing on the USD rather than Aussie strength. Advance has stalled with repeated rejection at the 0.7015 50-day EMA cap and 0.70207 week high, and price is now consolidating just above 0.6977 after slipping back under EMA20. ATR is moderate; momentum is easing as the pair holds a tight range near the highs.
Support: 0.69773, 0.6962, 0.68649
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70207
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7015/0.70207 opens the path toward 0.7045
Failure to hold 0.6962 confirms a rollover back into the 0.6985-0.7025 range
US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this USD-driven read
Based off 0.6913, higher lows into 0.7015 ceiling.
AUDUSD reclaimed the 0.6950-0.7000 zone in a ~1.25% two-day rally off the 0.6913 base, driven by USD weakness after soft US CPI/PPI rather than AUD strength. Price is now consolidating in a tight sub-20-pip range at the 0.7000 handle, stalling twice against the 0.7015/0.7021 ceiling that aligns with the 50-day EMA. ATR(14) has compressed as the advance flattens into resistance, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below price.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6962, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.7021, 0.7045
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 opens the path toward 0.7045
Loss of 0.6962 signals fading momentum back toward the 0.6913 base
Australia jobs report Jul 23 01:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USD stabilisation caps the advance given the rally is a USD-weakness story
AUDUSD has ground higher off the 0.6913 base, printing higher lows and stalling at the 0.7015 ceiling that has capped the advance twice — the bounce is a USD-weakness story after soft US CPI/PPI trimmed Fed hike bets. Price is parked on the 0.7000 handle with RSI flattening near 60, sitting above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.7015/0.7021 zone remains the pivotal barrier into next week.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7015, 0.70207
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7021 opens the path toward 0.7045
Loss of the 0.7000 handle then 0.6962 swing low signals fading momentum
Australia jobs (Jul 23, 01:30 GMT) could materially shift this read