20:02 UTC
Range broken lower, below a rolling EMA(50) · RSI 36 · price 0.67762
Double top resolved below the 2026 range floor.
AUDUSD broke out of the 2025 range in January and then held a 0.6833–0.7277 range from Q1 2026. The lower high at 0.7237 in September completed a double top against the May 2026 high, and this week's close at 0.6776 is below the range floor and a 10-month low. Price is below EMA(20) and below a flattening, now down-ticking EMA(50) at 0.6941, so the weekly macro filter has turned against the 2026 advance. The move tracks Fed–RBA policy divergence after hot US CPI and strong payrolls. Next structure below is the 2025 high near 0.6727 and the 0.6700 round number, close to the 61.8% retracement of the 2025–2026 advance, with RSI at 35.9 not yet oversold.
Support: 0.6727, 0.6700
Resistance: 0.6833, 0.69413, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- Weekly close back above the 0.6833 range floor would mark a false break and restore the 2026 range read
- Failure to hold the 2025 high at 0.6727 exposes the 0.6700 round number and the 61.8% fib near 0.6718
- A recovery that cannot reclaim the ema50 at 0.6941 keeps the lower-highs sequence from the 2026 high intact
- Fed Chair Warsh (Mon), RBA Governor Bullock and the RBA minutes (Tue), and AU jobs (Thu) could materially shift this read
- RSI below 30 would put the weekly into oversold territory after a 10-month low