21:08 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the September high · RSI 61 · price 84,652.77
HH/HL chain since mid-August; two-week range 82.5K–87.3K.
BTCUSD has run a higher-high/higher-low sequence since the mid-August breakout from the 62K–65.7K summer range. Price is above a rising EMA(50) and printed swings at 82,178, then 87,273 (sept high), with higher lows at 74,902 (sept low) and 82,566 (swing low). The 82,566 swing low sits on the 38.2% fib of the 74,902–87,273 leg. Price has consolidated between the swing low and the sept high for two weeks. Friday's spike to 87,058 around the soft 29K payrolls print faded and left a long upper wick, a rejection just under the sept high, with RSI near 61 and off the September highs.
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 87,273 sept high extends the HH chain and opens the 90,000 psych level
- Daily close below the 82,566 swing low / 38.2% fib breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 81,000 breakout area (50% fib)
- Uptrend line from the 62,654 August low runs near 82K; a break of it alongside the swing low weakens the trend read
- Loss of the 74,902 sept low would end the HH/HL structure
- ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields