Multi-week downtrend from the mid-$65K area into the $57.7K YTD low, now in a corrective bounce that reclaimed the $60K handle after the soft NFP print and dovish Warsh comments. Price is pressing the $63K supply wall where prior rallies stalled, with higher lows building off the $58K base. ATR stays elevated on the sharp recovery candles, signalling an expanding rather than compressing tape.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,741.00
Resistance: 63,900.00, 65,500.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63900 supply wall opens the path toward the 65500 prior high
Failure to hold the 60000 $60k handle reopens the 57741 YTD low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BTC based repeatedly around 57.8k-58k, then carved out higher lows and reclaimed the $60k pivot, with a strong final bar pushing into the $63k supply wall. The bounce tracks the soft NFP print and dovish Fed tone, but record June ETF outflows have capped every rally attempt at this zone. ATR(14) is expanding as the recovery leg extends.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,800.00
Resistance: 63,900.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63900 needed to confirm a break of the supply wall
Failure to hold the 60000 pivot reopens the 57800 ytd low zone
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Multi-week downtrend from the 66k area bottomed at the 57.8k ytd-low zone, printing a double-bottom before clawing back above the 60k pivot on the soft NFP miss and dovish Warsh read. Price is now pressing the 63k supply wall, where record June ETF outflows have repeatedly capped rally attempts. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50, but the structure only shifts once the 63.9k cap gives way.
Support: 61,700.00, 60,000.00, 57,800.00
Resistance: 63,900.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63900 supply wall needed to confirm the recovery extending toward 65k
Failure to hold the 61700 swing low / 60000 pivot re-exposes the 57800 ytd lows
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the key catalyst and could materially shift this read
Recovered off ytd low, consolidating below supply.
Price carved a YTD low near 57741 mid-window then rebounded ~6% on the dovish Warsh pivot and a soft NFP print (57K vs 110K), recovering to roughly the 50% mark of the June decline. It is now consolidating in the low-62000s, capped repeatedly by the ~63000 supply wall while holding a series of higher lows off the base. ATR(14) remains elevated, keeping swings wide.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,741.00
Resistance: 63,000.00, 63,935.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 63000 supply wall opens the path toward the 63935 swing high
Loss of the 60000 psych level risks a retest of the 57741 ytd low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Recovery off the lows, capped near 63k · RSI 46 · price 62,205.49
Higher lows since 57741, rejection at supply wall.
BTC carved a double bottom around 57741-58063 before a macro-driven relief bounce — a soft NFP and dovish Warsh tone — lifted price back above the 60000 reclaim. The rally stalled at the ~63k supply wall, printing a rejection near 63934, and has since eased back to 62205. Higher lows off the base keep the recovery structure intact while price holds above EMA50.
Support: 60,000.00, 57,741.00
Resistance: 63,934.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63934 opens the path back toward the prior 64k-66k range
Failure to hold 60000 exposes the 57741 swing low again
ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC) and Waller (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
BTC carved a rounded base off the ~57.7K YTD low and reclaimed the 60K handle on dovish Warsh and the soft 57K NFP print, printing higher lows into the recovery. Price is now pressing the ~63.4K supply wall — which aligns with the 61.8% retrace of the 66.8K-57.7K decline — after repeated tests capped the tape. ATR has cooled from the June expansion, with price holding above both the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 62,550.00, 60,000.00
Resistance: 63,400.00, 63,934.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63400 supply wall opens the path back to the 63934 swing high
Loss of the 62550 swing low reopens the 60000 psych pivot
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could shift this read within the next bars
Rounded base off ytd low, coiling under 63k supply.
BTC carved a rounded base near the $58K YTD low and has recovered toward the ~$63K supply wall, aided by the soft NFP print and dovish Warsh tilt. Higher-low structure holds since the bottom, but the tape stalled at 63,845 with ETF outflows keeping supply heavy overhead. ATR(14) has cooled from the June flush, showing compression as price coils under the supply wall.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 63,845 supply wall opens the path back toward the 66,300 prior high
Failure to hold the 60k handle reopens the 58k ytd low
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Recovery within broader range · RSI 58 · price 63,241.35
Higher lows off 57.7K, capped by 63K wall.
BTC carved a base near 57.7K and has ground higher into the $63K supply wall, a dovish-macro bid (soft 57K NFP, Warsh) offsetting record June ETF outflows that keep rallies pinned. The last several bars repeatedly stall between 63.4K and 63.9K while holding above the 62.3K floor, leaving price boxed in the low-63Ks. ATR remains elevated, consistent with a two-way $58K–$63K range rather than a clean trend.
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63.9K opens the path toward the 65.5K prior high
Failure to hold 62.3K reopens the 60K psych level
ISM Services 14:00 UTC + Waller 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Recovery off lows, capped at supply · RSI 58 · price 63,542.02
Higher lows since 58K, range top nearby.
BTC carved a double bottom near 58K — the YTD low — and has ground higher-lows back toward the 63K supply wall, helped by the dovish repricing after the soft NFP miss. The latest bar pushed to 63930 before easing to 63542, keeping price above both EMA20 and EMA50 but still inside the multi-week 58K–63K range. ATR is moderate, with the recovery leg testing the range ceiling rather than clearing it.
Support: 62,550.00, 60,000.00, 58,000.00
Resistance: 63,930.00, 66,100.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63930 recent high opens the path toward 66100
Failure to hold the 62550 range base reopens 60000 psych and 58000 ytd low
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could shift this read
Price carved a double bottom near 58k — the YTD low from the two flushes — and has ground higher on rising lows since, aided by the soft NFP print (57K vs 110K) that reset dovish Fed bets. The last bar pushed into the 63k supply wall, closing at 63542 after tagging 63934, with EMA20 and EMA50 both now beneath price. This remains a range recovery: capped near 63k where record June ETF outflows keep rallies on a leash.
Resistance: 63,900.00, 64,500.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 63900 clears the 63k wall and opens 64500
Loss of the rising-lows line risks a return to the 60k handle
ISM Services 14:00 UTC and Waller 15:00 UTC could shift the read intraday