Lower highs and lower lows; 82264–82300 base broken after NY close.
Lower highs run from the 84258 Asian high to the 83081 swing high, and the post-NY break of the 82264–82300 broken base has pushed to a fresh session low at 81687. A bid USD at 17-month highs and risk-off flows are the backdrop. RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR is about $226.
Support: 81,687.04, 81,500.00
Resistance: 82,264.40, 82,707.92
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 82264 broken base, which sits near the 38.2% of the drop fib, would turn the late break into a false break
Failure to hold the 81687 session low exposes the 81500 round number
A move back through the 82708 lower high and the lower-high trendline toward the 83081 swing high would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller on Tue at 07:45 UTC could shift the USD-driven read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Rejection at the 83,081 swing high led into a late, post-NY slide that broke the 82,264 range floor and printed a day low at 81,722, with price holding just above it and RSI(14) near 30. Macro is the only driver: a firm, haven-bid USD and hawkish Fed talk, with no BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 82,264 broken floor, near the 38.2% fib of the swing high to day low drop, would neutralise the range break
M15 closes above the 82,708 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,722 day low exposes the 81,500 round number
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 28 · price 81,962.74
Lower highs; NY range floor broken.
After the NY close, BTC broke out of the 82264–83081 range it held through the NY session. The breakdown leg printed a 81722 swing low at 23:00 UTC, and RSI(14) sits near 28. The selling extends London's slide from the 84258 Asian high against a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI, with a lower high capping at 82708.
Support: 81,722.00, 81,500.00
Resistance: 82,264.00, 82,708.00, 83,081.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82264 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 81722 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81500 psych level
Close above the 82708 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 83081 range top above
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh day low after NY close · RSI 34 · price 82,171.51
Lower highs from 84,258 London open high; 82,264–82,300 base broken.
Lower highs since the 84,258 London open high. After NY close, BTC failed at the 83,081 swing high, then the 82,708 lower high, and slipped through the 82,264–82,300 broken base to a day low at 82,021. The firm USD near 17-month highs remains the macro drag, and RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
A move back above the 82,300 broken base would turn the late break into a false break
A clean loss of the 82,021 day low and the 82,000 round number extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 82,708 lower high breaks the descending sequence, with the 83,081 swing high next above
Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC, ahead of Wed's US CPI; hawkish hike signals could extend the USD-driven slide
22:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 43 · price 82,461.19
Lower lows from the London-open high; NY range 82264–83081, lower high at 82708.
The London-open high at 84258 gave way to a near $2,000 slide into NY under a bid USD. The 82264–82300 session low area held three times, but the rebound stalled at the 83081 range top, just past the 38.2% retrace. After NY close, price sits near 82460 between the 82370 swing low and the 82708 lower high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 82,370.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 82,708.00, 83,081.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 82264 session low breaks the NY range base and extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 82708 lower high, then the 83081 range top, would undo the intraday downtrend read
A break of the 82370 swing low puts the session low back in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could reprice October hike odds and move BTC through the USD
22:33 UTC
Down from London-open high, now ranging · RSI 44 · price 82,542.10
82264–83081 range since the 12:30 UTC break; latest bounce rejected, retracing toward the range floor.
BTC slid from the 84258 London-open high and broke the 83190 floor at 12:30 UTC as the firm USD weighed. NY hours then built a 82264–83081 range, and the late bounce to the 83081 swing high was rejected. Price has given back about 62% of that bounce fib and sits at 82542 after NY close, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 44 and the 82708 lower high capping.
Support: 82,370.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 82,708.00, 83,081.00
What it said to watch
Break of the 82264 day low puts price beneath the NY range
Holding the 82370 swing low and reclaiming the 82708 lower high keeps the 82264–83081 range intact
Close above the 83081 swing high invalidates the rejection read
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift the USD tone; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
22:18 UTC
Downtrend from the Asian high, now ranging · RSI 53 · price 82,622.01
82264–83081 range since the London-NY transition, lower high at 82900, higher low at 82370.
BTC broke below the Asian range low near 83376 during London and slid through the London-NY transition as the USD firmed on hawkish Fedspeak. It has ranged 82264–83081 since NY hours. The late-NY rebound stalled at the range high, a lower high at 82900 followed, and the 82370 higher low is holding into the Asia open with RSI(14) near 53 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 82,370.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 82,900.00, 83,081.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82264 day low breaks the range floor
Failure to hold the 82370 higher low exposes the day low
Acceptance above the 82900 lower high reopens the 83081 range high; a close above it ends the range read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and USD strength into Wednesday's CPI could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a lower range · RSI 49 · price 82,559.08
Lower highs from 84258, 82264–83081 range since NY open.
BTC topped at 84258 at London open and sold off through the session as a firm, risk-off USD weighed. It broke 83000 into NY open, and the drop to 82393 lined up with Hammack's hawkish remarks. The late-NY rebound from the 82264 day low met rejection at the 83081 range top and gave back most of the move to an 82370 swing low; price sits mid-range below both EMAs as Asia opens.
Support: 82,370.29, 82,264.40
Resistance: 82,868.74
What it said to watch
Close below the 82264 day low extends the lower-low sequence out of the range
Recovery above the 82869 swing high reopens the 83081 range top, near the descending line from 84258
Fib 78.6% of the late-NY rebound has already given way; holding the 82370 swing low keeps the range read intact
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Lower-high/lower-low sequence since the 84,258 London-open high; floor at 82,264–82,300.
BTC peaked at 84,258 at London open and slid through the session against a firm USD and hawkish Hammack remarks. The NY open broke the 83,190 london low and ran to the 82,264–82,300 session low, which held three times. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 83,080 bounce high, just above the 38.2% fib, and price is back at 82,491 below the 82,870 lower high with RSI(14) at 40.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,080 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; 83,190 london low is next overhead
Reclaim of the 82,870 lower high would neutralise the current rollover
Failure to hold the 82,300 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 82,000 round number
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC ahead of Wed US CPI could materially shift this read via the USD
21:33 UTC
Downtrend from London high, late-NY bounce stalling · RSI 61 · price 82,866.74
Triple test of the day low near 82,264–82,302, then a higher low at 82,783.
London broke below the Asian range low of 83,376 and the slide ran through NY open. Firm USD and hawkish Hammack remarks drove a third test of the day low at 82,264. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 83,081 bounce high, at the 38.2% fib of the 84,258–82,264 drop, and the 82,783 pullback low has held so far as price presses EMA50.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83,081 bounce high opens the 83,190–83,226 broken base, near the 50% fib at 83,261.
Loss of the 82,783 pullback low breaks the rising support and exposes the day low at 82,264.
Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC; further hawkish Fedspeak and USD strength could reassert the downtrend read.
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off day low stalling · RSI 57 · price 82,825.79
Lower highs from 84,258; NY-session base 82,264–82,302; bounce rejected at 83,081.
BTC slid from the 84,258 session high at London open to an 82,264 day low, with the firm USD and Hammack's hawkish remarks (16:50 UTC drop to 82,410) weighing; three NY-session tests of 82,264–82,302 held. The late-NY bounce met rejection at the 83,081 swing high under the descending trendline, and price now sits just above the ema20 near the 38.2% retracement of the bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,264 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the ema20 and the 61.8% fib at 82,576 would negate the bounce structure
Close above the 83,081 swing high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 83,226 london low
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 82,300; testing 83,000 neckline.
BTC slid from the 84,258 London-open high to a 82,264 swing low as the USD stayed bid. The second leg came after Hammack's hawkish remarks. A late-NY rebound built a double bottom near 82,300 and is now holding the 83,000 round number at the 38.2% fib, just under the 83,081 late NY high.
What it said to watch
A hold above the 83,000 round number keeps the double bottom intact; a clean break of the 83,081 late NY high exposes the fib 50% at 83,261 and the fib 61.8% near 83,496
Slipping back below 83,000 and then losing the 82,264 swing low resumes the London-NY downleg
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs from 84258, triple base near 82300, bounce testing 38.2% fib.
The London open high at 84258 faded, and NY broke the 83190 breakdown shelf as the bid USD and hawkish Hammack remarks weighed. Buyers held 82264–82300 three times (swing low). The late-NY bounce has cleared the 82869 broken high and stalls at the 38.2% fib near 83026, just under the 83055 bounce high. RSI(14) is near 74.
Support: 82,869.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 83,055.00, 83,190.00, 83,261.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82869 broken high returns price to the 82264 swing low base
Acceptance above the 83190 breakdown shelf and fib 50 at 83261 would mark the first higher high since London
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 84258 London-open top; triple bottom near 82300, bounce now at the 38.2% retracement.
London reversed from the 84258 high at the open and broke the Asian low. NY extended the slide to an 82264 day low as the firm USD and Hammack's hawkish remarks weighed. Three tests near 82300 held, and a six-bar late-NY rebound has reclaimed the 82868 prior high and is pressing the 38.2% fib at 83026, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 82,264.40
Resistance: 83,026.00, 83,226.35, 83,376.18
What it said to watch
A close above 83226, the london low near the 50% fib, opens the 83376 asian low
Rejection at the 38.2% fib and a slip back under the 82868 prior high return price to the lows
A break of the 82264 day low voids the triple bottom and resumes the downtrend
Waller at Tue 07:45 UTC could shift October hike pricing and the USD
London broke the Asian range low; NY ended on a triple-bottom base with the neckline cleared.
London broke the Asian range low near 83376 and NY extended the slide to an 82264 session low, undercutting the 82300 lows before reversing, with the USD bid on hawkish Hammack remarks. The rebound after London close has closed above the 82869 prior high, completing a triple-bottom shape. It is now pressing the 83010 NY high at the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop, with RSI(14) near 65 and price just above EMA50.
Support: 82,869.00, 82,630.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 83,010.00, 83,190.00, 83,261.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83010 NY high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 83190 breakdown zone, then the 83261 50% fib
Slip back below the 82869 prior high negates the triple-bottom break; ema20 near 82630 is next
Loss of the 82264 session low resumes the London-NY downtrend
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and DXY pressing 102.35–102.60 could shift this read into the Asia-London handover
NY-session range 82264–83012, lower highs from 83012 being tested.
Price fell from the 84,258 early-London high through the Asian range low, then based in NY with three tests of 82,264–82,302. A hawkish Hammack drew a dip at 16:45 UTC. Late-NY bounce off the session low has cleared the 61.8% of the NY swing fib and is pressing the 82,869 lower high, still below EMA50.
Support: 82,631.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 82,869.00, 83,012.00, 83,186.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82869 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and confirms the triple-bottom neckline, exposing the 83012 ny high
Above 83012, the 83186 prior shelf from London is next resistance
Slip back below the 82631 rally base returns focus to the 82264 session low; a break there extends the downtrend
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and USD strength (DXY ~102.35) ahead of Wed CPI could materially shift this read
19:48 UTC
Downtrend, basing late in NY · RSI 49 · price 82,694.93
Lower highs onto a flat 82,260–82,380 base.
BTC sold off from the 84,258 London-open high through the Asian range low, and the drop accelerated into NY as the broadly bid USD weighed. NY hours have since based at 82,264–82,380. The latest bounce is stalling near the 23.6% retracement at ~82,735, still under the 82,869 lower high.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,869 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 83,012 swing high in play.
Failure to hold the 82,264 session low resumes the downtrend leg, with the 82,000 round number next below.
The 83,190–83,230 breakdown zone from London is the upper cap of the decline.
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed CPI could shift the USD-driven tone.
Lower highs at 83,012 and 82,869, lows stepping down to 82,264.
London sold the 84,258 Asian-range high from the open, and NY extended the slide below 82,500 as the USD stayed bid on risk-off flows. The NY bounce stalled at the 83,012 ny high, then at an 82,869 lower high. Late in NY hours price is pressing the 82,264 session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 82,264 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
A recovery through the 82,549 minor high and the descending trendline from the ny high would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 82,869 lower high would invalidate the NY downtrend read
Further DXY gains above ~102.35 or hawkish Waller remarks (Tue 07:45 UTC) could extend USD pressure on this read
19:20 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 82,327.34
Lower highs pressing a flat 82264–82300 floor.
The London-open peak at 84258 rolled into a steady sell-off as a firm USD on oil and Fed-hike fears weighed. The 16:00 UTC swing high at 82869 failed around Hammack's remarks. Late in the NY session price is pinned near the 82264 session low, with each lower high (latest 82483) capping bounces under the descending trendline.
Support: 82,264.40, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,483.16, 82,868.74, 83,026.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82264 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number
Close above the 82869 swing high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 38.2% at 83026 sits just above
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and Bowman Wed ahead of US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 82,450.20
Lower highs pressing a flat 82260–82380 floor.
BTC slipped through the 83190 broken floor at the London-NY transition as the USD stayed bid on risk-off flows. Late NY now prints lower highs at 82869 and 82549 under a descending trendline, with price pressing the 82264 session low and RSI(14) near 41. The 38.2% retracement of the 84258–82264 drop sits near 83026, just above the 83011 swing.
Support: 82,264.40, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,549.09, 82,868.74, 83,190.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82264 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82000 round number
Recovery above the 82549 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 82869 swing high next
Only a reclaim of the 83190 broken floor negates the midday breakdown
Further DXY gains beyond ~102.35, or hawkish Fedspeak from Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed CPI, could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 82,396.26
Lower highs from 84258; 82300–82550 consolidation under trendline.
London rejected the 84258 high just above the Asian range and sold off. NY extended the move to the 82300 session low as the firm USD and French debt risk-off weighed. Since late NY, price has compressed in an 82300–82550 band, with the range top capped beneath the descending trendline and the 83011 NY high and 82868 lower high marking the swing structure above.
Support: 82,300.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,549.00, 82,868.00, 83,011.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82300 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number
Close above the 82549 range top breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 82868 lower high, then the 83011 NY high
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift the USD-driven read before Wed CPI
Lower highs from 84258; twin lows at 82300 holding.
The Asian session high at 84258 gave way through London and NY as the USD stayed bid on risk-off flows, leaving lower highs at 83012 (rebound high) and 82869 (swing high) on the drop. Demand stepped in twice at the 82300 session low during NY hours, and late-NY price is compressing between 82350 and 82500 under the 82550 lower high, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 82,300.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,550.00, 82,869.00, 83,012.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82300 session low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 82000 round number in play
Reclaim of the 82869 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 83012 rebound high sits just above the 38.2% fib
Hold above 82550 lower high would turn the twin 82300 lows into a base
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and further DXY gains above 102.35 could materially shift this read
BTC sold off from the 84258 Asian high from London open as the USD stayed bid. NY printed successive lower highs at 83011 (bounce high) and 82868 (lower high), and the 16:45 UTC drop around Hammack's remarks retested the 82300 session low, which has held twice. Late-NY price is coiling just above that floor, capped by the 82549 minor high.
Support: 82,300.36, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,549.09
What it said to watch
M15 close below 82300 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82000 round number
Close above 82549 minor high and the descending lower-high line breaks the NY lower-high chain; 82868 lower high is the next test
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and any DXY push beyond 102.35 could materially shift this read ahead of Wed CPI
Lower highs from 84258; NY range 82300–83011 holding.
London broke the asian low at 83376 and the slide carried into the NY session as a firm USD and risk-off flows weighed, leaving a chain of lower highs from 84258. NY has since held a 82300–83011 range: the bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 near 83011, and the 82300 session low was tested twice. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s with no extreme.
Support: 82,300.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,868.00, 83,011.00, 83,376.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82300 session low confirms a lower-low, with the 82000 round number next
Close above the 82868 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the fib 38.2 at 83011 back in play
Reclaim of the 83376 asian low would undo the London range break
Thin holiday trade; Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and DXY moves around 102.35 could shift this read
Lower highs at 83012 and 82869, price retesting session low.
BTC sold off from the Asia high at 84258 and broke the 83200 floor in the London session. NY extended the leg to the 82302 session low, with lower highs at 83012 (swing high) and 82869 since. Price is retesting that low with RSI(14) near 36 as a bid USD (DXY ~102.35) weighs.
Support: 82,300.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,869.00, 83,012.00, 83,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82300 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number
M15 close above the 82869 lower high breaks the descending trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Recovery back above the 83200 broken floor, near the 50% fib of the Asia high-NY low drop, would neutralise the London breakdown
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and DXY moves above 102.35 could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open rejection.
The Asian rally to 84258 was rejected at the London open. The slide broke the asian low at 83376, and NY hours extended it to an 82302 session low. Bounces stalled under the fib 38.2 at 83011 and a lower high at 82869, keeping price below the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 32 as a bid USD weighs on BTC in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 82,302.36, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,868.74, 83,376.18
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82869 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline read
Failure to hold the 82302 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82000 psych level
Reclaim of the 83376 asian low would neutralise the range break
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and DXY moves around 102.35 could shift this read before Wed CPI
17:18 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in NY range · RSI 41 · price 82,521.12
Lower highs inside 82,300–83,010 NY range below broken London base.
The Asian high at 84,258 rolled over through London. The 83,190 London base broke at 12:15 UTC and price extended to an 82,302 NY session low, with the bid USD (DXY ~102.35) the macro headwind. After London close price is ranging under an 83,011 NY high, with a lower high at 82,868. The 82,368 higher low is being retested and RSI(14) sits near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,302 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Failure to hold the 82,368 higher low leaves only the session low beneath
Close above the 82,868 lower high and the NY high at 83,011 breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 83,190 London base would neutralise the range-break read
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and further DXY strength could shift this read
Lower-high chain from 84258, consolidating above 82302 session low.
Asian session high at 84258 capped price. London broke the 83190 london base and NY extended to an 82302 session low, with lower highs at 83011 and 82868 keeping the sequence intact. The 16:45 UTC leg lower, around Fed's Hammack remarks and on a firm USD, put price back near the swing low after London close.
Support: 82,377.28, 82,302.36
Resistance: 83,190.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 82302 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 82377 swing low is the first test
A recovery above the 82868 lower high breaks the descending trendline, and the 83011 swing high sits near the 38.2% fib (~83050) of the 84258–82302 drop
Reclaiming the 83190 london base would negate the range break
Thin US holiday trade into Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after London sell-off · RSI 40 · price 82,665.96
Lower highs from 84,258; 82,302–83,012 consolidation since 13:00 UTC.
BTC fell from the 84,258 Asian high and broke the 83,190 breakdown level during London as a bid USD weighed, with the sell-off reaching an 82,302 session low. NY hours have held a tight consolidation between the session low and the 83,012 bounce high. The 82,869 lower high is capping price under a falling lower-high line, and price sits below EMA20 (~82,780).
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,869 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the descending sequence, with the 83,012 bounce high (38.2% of the sell-off) next.
Loss of the 82,553 minor low exposes the 82,302 session low. A break there extends the downtrend.
A reclaim of the 83,190 breakdown level would negate the London range break.
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin US-holiday trade.
Lower highs from 84258; NY range 82302–83011 after London breakdown.
The 84258 Asia high capped Asian trade, and London selling broke the Asian range low near 83376. NY extended the drop through the 83190 breakdown base to a 82302 session low as the USD stayed bid on risk-off flows, in thin holiday trade. Price is now lifting off a 82553 higher low back toward the 83011 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and the falling trendline from 84258 still intact.
Support: 82,553.09, 82,302.36
Resistance: 83,190.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83011 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 83190 breakdown base is the next overhead test
Loss of the 82553 higher low returns focus to the 82302 session low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the USD and shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs from 84,258; NY low swept and reclaimed, higher low at 82,553.
London rejected the 84,258 high and the 83,186 range floor gave way at 12:15 UTC, with the drop extending to an 82,302 session low in NY hours as a bid USD weighed. That low undercut the 82,377 pivot and was reclaimed; price has since printed a higher low at 82,553 and is pressing back toward the 38.2% fib zone just under the 83,011 swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,011 swing high brings the 83,186 range floor and the 50% fib near 83,280 into play
Failure to hold the 82,553 higher low exposes the 82,302 session low again
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin US-holiday liquidity could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London open; tight NY consolidation 82300–83010.
London open briefly poked above the Asian range high to a session high at 84258, then reversed. The slide broke the 83190 london low around 12:15 UTC and ran to a session low at 82302 as the bid USD and French debt risk-off weighed. The bounce stalled at an 83012 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib. The 82930 lower high is capping price beneath the descending trendline, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 82,302.36, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,930.00, 83,011.58, 83,190.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83012 bounce high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence; above that, the 83190 london low is the next reference
A close above the 82930 lower high and the descending trendline would signal the NY consolidation resolving higher
Failure to hold the 82302 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 82000 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read; US holiday liquidity is thin
Lower highs from 84,258; marginal lower low at 82,302.
Rejection at the 84,258 Asian-range high around London open started a lower-high sequence. Early in the NY session price broke the 83,190 breakdown shelf and ran to 82,302, with a bid USD on risk-off flows weighing. The 83,011 bounce high stalled under the 38.2% fib and a lower high at 82,699 is capping, though the session low printed with mild bullish RSI divergence (RSI 36).
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,302 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 82,000 round number next
Break of the falling trendline and the 83,011 bounce high would end the lower-high sequence; the 83,190 breakdown shelf sits above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, 83,200 range floor broken.
Price peaked at 84,258 near London open and has printed lower highs since. The 83,190–83,210 range floor gave way at 12:30 UTC, and the slide made a session low at 82,302 during NY hours. The bounce is capped at 82,930 (bounce cap) and 83,011 (lower high, near the 38.2% fib), with RSI(14) near 35. A bid USD on risk-off flows and thin holiday liquidity frame the move.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83,011 lower high and the 83,200 broken floor negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 82,302 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
Repeated rejection at the 82,930 bounce cap keeps the rebound corrective
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD and materially change this read
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 32 · price 82,539.10
London range broken lower in NY; bounce capped near 38.2%.
Rejection at the 84258 London-open high led to a drift lower, and the NY open broke the 83190–83500 London range and the 83208 prior low. A firm USD and risk-off tone added pressure in holiday-thinned trade. The NY bounce stalled at 83011, just under the 38.2% fib, and the session low has since been reset at 82302, keeping the lower-high chain intact.
Support: 82,302.36, 82,000.00
Resistance: 83,208.37
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82302 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82000 round number
Close back above the 83011 bounce high and the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Reclaim of the 83208 prior low puts price back inside the London range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 28 · price 82,496.15
LH/LL chain; NY bounce capped under descending trendline.
London reversed from the 84,258 high, broke the Asian range low and Sunday's 83,200 lows (now a broken low), and the decline ran to an 82,377 session low as a bid USD and risk-off flows weighed. The NY-open bounce stalled at the 83,011 bounce high, and a lower high at 82,928 met rejection at the descending trendline. Price is back near the 82,437 NY low, with RSI(14) around 28.
What it said to watch
Break of the 82,437 NY low and 82,377 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
A close above the 83,011 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 83,200 broken low the next test
A close back above the 82,928 lower high shifts focus to the 38.2% retracement of the decline near 83,096
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and DXY gains beyond 102.35 could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84258; 83190 shelf broken, retracing from below.
London session reversed from the 84258 open high, cut through the asian low at 83376 and broke the 83190 shelf. The slide ran to an 82377 session low before the NY open, with a firm USD and a risk-off backdrop in a holiday-thin US session. The first-hour NY bounce built a higher low near 82590 but stalled at the 83010 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib at about 83096, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-30s.
Support: 82,590.00, 82,380.00
Resistance: 83,010.00, 83,190.00, 83,376.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 83190 broken shelf negates the range break
Rejection at the 83010 bounce high or the 38.2% fib keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 82590 higher low exposes the 82380 session low
Break below the 82380 session low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD and yields, and with them this read
Lower highs since London open; London base broken, rebounding off session low.
London open pushed to 84258, then failed, and price ground lower in lower highs. The 83190 london base broke into the NY open, and the flush reached a 82377 session low with RSI(14) dipping below 15. The bounce has reclaimed the 23.6% fib near 82820 off a bounce base around 82590, but it is still capped by the falling trendline and ema20 near 83000, with a firm USD and risk-off backdrop on thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 82,590.00, 82,377.00
Resistance: 83,000.00, 83,190.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83000 (ema20 / falling trendline) shifts the read toward a deeper retracement into the 83190 london base
Failure to hold the 82590 bounce base puts the 82377 session low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could move USD and yields, materially shifting this read
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 18 · price 82,426.23
Lower highs from the London-open high; 83,190–83,508 range broken lower.
BTC topped at 84,258 on the London open and has printed lower highs since. The drop below the 83,190 range floor at 12:15–12:30 UTC reached a session low at 82,377 into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 18. There is no BTC-specific catalyst, so a firm USD and thin US-holiday trade frame the move.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 83,190 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 82,377 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 round number
A reclaim of the 82,873 lower high interrupts the descending sequence; the 83,508 range top sits near the 61.8% fib of the London drop
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin US-holiday trade
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY open · RSI 17 · price 82,426.23
Lower highs since the London-open high; Asian range broken lower, fresh session lows.
London pushed briefly above the Asian range to 84,258, then reversed and has printed lower highs since. The asian low at 83,376 gave way mid-London, and the late-London break of the 83,190 lows (the broken low) ran to a session low at 82,377, with RSI(14) near 17 and ATR roughly double its overnight pace. A firm USD, risk-averse macro tape and thin US-holiday liquidity frame the slide. There is no BTC-specific catalyst in the digest.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,377 session low exposes the 82,000 round number
A reclaim of the 82,874 bounce high and the lower-high line would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Acceptance back above the 83,190 broken low, near the 50% fib, negates the breakdown read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD and yields, with CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC as the bigger risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84258 London-open high; Asian range low and Sunday low both broken.
London rejected the 84258 high at the open and broke the Asian range low near 83376. The 12:30 UTC flush cut through the Sunday prior low around 83200, with a lower high at 82873 and a fresh session low at 82449 ahead of the NY open. RSI(14) sits near 23. The digest's firm-USD, risk-off backdrop fits the move, and liquidity is thin on the US holiday.
Support: 82,449.20, 82,000.00
Resistance: 83,200.00, 83,508.04
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 82873 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 82449 session low exposes the 82000 round number
Reclaim of the 83200 prior low and the falling trendline of lower highs invalidates the downtrend read
A recovery into the 83140–83354 zone (38.2–50% of the London selloff fib) is the first area to watch for rejection, with the 83508 swing high above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD and yields; holiday-thin NY session can exaggerate moves
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 23 · price 82,650.98
Lower highs from 84,258 since London open; range break below 83,190 into new 24h low.
BTC topped at the 84,258 Asian range high into London open and has since printed a chain of lower highs, capped at 83,508. The 12:15–12:30 UTC leg broke the 83,190 broken low base and set a session low at 82,551 on the window's widest bar, with RSI(14) near 23 in thin US-holiday trade and a firm USD in the background.
What it said to watch
Recovery back above 83,000 round number and the 83,190 broken low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 82,551 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 82,000 psych
Close above the 83,508 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
12:48 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after flush · RSI 24 · price 82,779.84
Lower highs from London open high; 83190 range base broken.
London open printed the window high at 84258 and was rejected. Price then made lower highs under a falling trendline until the 83190 range base gave way at 12:15 UTC, and the 12:30 bar flushed to the 82551 session low before leaving a long lower wick, with RSI(14) near 24. The slide fits the firm-USD, risk-averse macro tape, while thin US-holiday liquidity amplifies the moves.
Support: 82,551.00, 82,500.00
Resistance: 82,954.00, 83,190.00, 83,357.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 82954 prior low, which is also the 23.6% fib of the London drop, would be the first sign the flush is being absorbed
An M15 close back above the 83190 range base would negate the breakdown and put the 83357 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 82551 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82500 round number
The falling trendline from the 84258 high caps near 83170; it stays intact while price holds below it
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin holiday conditions
12:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 83,051.54
Lower-high chain from 84,258; Asian low and 83,190 floor broken.
London open pushed above the Asian high to 84,258, then failed and reversed; the London leg has since printed a clean lower-high chain through the Asian low and the 83,190 broken floor. The 12:15 UTC bar extended to an 83,023 session low, just above the 83,000 psych level and Sunday's pre-rally base at 82,954. RSI(14) near 36 is not oversold, and trade is thin on the US holiday with a firm USD into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,190 broken floor would weaken the latest leg lower
Clearing the 83,357 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence; the 38.2% fib at 83,495 sits above it
Failure to hold the 83,023 session low and 83,000 psych exposes the sunday low at 82,954
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in a thin, holiday-affected NY session could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,258 London-open high; Asian range broken lower.
London faded from the 84,258 high set at the open and broke below the Asian low at 83,376. Price is now testing the 83,186 session low for a third time, with the lower-high chain intact and RSI(14) near 36, soft but not oversold. US-holiday liquidity is thin and the firm-USD backdrop offers no counterweight.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,186 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83,000 round number
Reclaim of the 83,376 asian low, then a close above the 83,508 lower high, breaks the London downswing structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone and this read; thin holiday trade can exaggerate moves
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London open printed the london high at 84258 and was rejected. Price then slid through the Asian low at 83376 and briefly undercut Sunday's 83208 low to a session low of 83189, with each bounce capped at a lower high, the latest at 83508. RSI(14) sits at 37, short of oversold. The tape is thin with US holidays and a firm USD backdrop.
Support: 83,189.39, 83,000.00
Resistance: 83,376.18, 83,508.04, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83508 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 83376 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 83189 session low exposes the 83000 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt a thin, holiday-affected NY session
11:47 UTC
Downtrend since London open, RSI soft but not oversold · RSI 35 · price 83,311.25
Lower highs and lower lows from 84,258; Asian range low broken.
London open saw a rejection at 84,258. The London sell-off since has printed a clean lower-high sequence, broke the Asian low at 83,376 and extended to a session low of 83,189. Trade is thin with the US on holiday and a firm USD; RSI(14) is near 35, soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 83,376 would turn the range break into a false break
Price held below the lower high at 83,508 and the lower-highs trendline keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 of the London sell-off at 83,598 would neutralise the lower-high read
Failure to hold the session low at 83,189 exposes the sunday low at 82,953
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD and materially change this read
Lower highs from 84258, compressing 83250–83510 above the london low.
London open rejected the 84258 Asia high after a brief false break of the overnight highs. Price then printed lower highs down to the 83226 london low, just above Sunday's 83208 swing. It is now compressing between 83250 and the 83508 lower high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 83,226.35, 82,953.65
Resistance: 83,508.04, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83226 london low (and 83208 beneath) extends the lower-high sequence toward the 82954 base low
M15 close above the 83508 lower high breaks the compression; the 83677 breakdown pivot sits near the 38.2% retrace of the London selloff
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone and this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London open printed the session high at 84,258 and was rejected. Price then sold off about 1,000 to 83,226, cutting through the Asian low near 83,400. It is now basing just above the session low under a lower-highs trendline (83,677 → 83,508), below both EMAs with RSI(14) in the mid-30s. Monday trade is thin with US markets on holiday and a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,508 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the asian low at 83,400 back in play as support
Failure to hold the 83,226 session low exposes the window low at 82,953
Recovery into the 83,620–83,740 zone (38.2–50% of the London sell-off) is where the downtrend read would be tested
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in a thin US-holiday session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84258 session high; tight base above 83226 low.
London open pushed to an 84258 session high above the Asian high near 84181, but the break failed. The selloff cut through the Asian low near 83376 and printed an 83226 session low. Mid-London, price is basing between the 83334 range low and the 83508 range high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, in thin US-holiday trade with no BTC-specific driver.
Support: 83,334.00, 83,226.00
Resistance: 83,508.00, 83,678.00, 83,742.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83508 range high and the lower-highs trendline opens a retrace toward the 83678 lower high and the fib 50% at 83742
Failure to hold the 83334 range low exposes the 83226 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC lands after the NY open in holiday-thinned trade and could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the London open high, now basing above the Asian low.
The day high at 84,258 printed at London open, then a London selloff of about 1,030 cut through the 83,376 Asian low to a London low at 83,226, just above Sunday's 83,208 swing. Price is now basing at 83,334–83,479 back above the Asian low, under a lower high at 83,552. The macro tape is risk-averse with a firm USD, there is no BTC-specific news, and US holiday trade is thin.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,376 asian low reopens the 83,226 london low and Sunday's 83,208 swing
Close above the 83,552 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence; the 38.2% retrace of the London selloff sits near 83,620
Recovery through 83,620 would put the 84,258 day high back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,258 London high; back at Asian low.
London opened with a false break of the Asian range high at the 84,258 session high, then slid about $1,030 through the Asian low to an 83,226 session low, just above Sunday's 83,208 swing low, in thin US-holiday trade with a firm USD backdrop. Price is back at the 83,376 Asian low, below both EMAs. Supply is capping at the 83,480 lower high and the descending lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around $172.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,480 lower high and the lower-high line breaks the London sequence, with the 83,680 swing high (near the 38.2% fib of the London selloff) the next reference
Failure to hold the 83,376 Asian low, then a break of the 83,226 session low and 83,208, extends the lower-low chain toward the 83,000 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday trade could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
10:18 UTC
Downtrend since London open, lower highs intact · RSI 33 · price 83,411.14
London reversal from 84,258 session high; Asian low broken, price now pinned near 83,400.
BTC set a session high at 84,258 at London open (07:00 UTC), then reversed about 1,030 points. The drop broke the Asian low at 83,401 and stalled at the 83,226 session low, just above Sunday's 83,208 swing low. Price is now hugging the broken Asian low with a lower high at 83,480, RSI(14) near 33, in thin holiday trade with the USD firm into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,480 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83,680 prior pivot near the 38.2% fib in view
Failure to hold the 83,226 session low and Sunday's 83,208 swing low exposes the 83,000 round number, the pre-breakout base
Recovery through 83,680 would neutralise the London selloff read; 84,258 session high remains the range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD and risk tone into NY hours
09:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 83,284.28
False break above Asian range, then range break below the Asian low; LH/LL chain intact.
London open set a session high at 84,258 above the 84,181 Asian top, then reversed. That false break turned into a ~975-point selloff through the 83,376 Asian low on a chain of lower highs. Price now sits just above Sunday's 83,208 swing low with RSI(14) near 36, in thin holiday liquidity and a firm USD ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,208 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 83,000 round number
Reclaiming the 83,376 Asian low, then holding above the 38.2% fib of the selloff at 83,654, would break the lower-high chain
A return to the 84,258 session high would negate the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could move yields and the USD and materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the London-open high · RSI 39 · price 83,378.18
Lower highs and lower lows from 84,258; pressing the Asian range low.
London opened with a rejection at the 84,258 session high. The London drop has since printed lower highs and lower lows through the Asian range low near 83,376 to an 83,303 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs. The firm USD into Wednesday's CPI and holiday-thin US liquidity frame the slide, with no BTC-specific driver in the tape.
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 83,303 session low exposes the 83,208 swing low from Sunday night, then the 83,000 round number
An M15 close above the 83,552 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence
A bounce into the 38.2% retracement of the London drop near 83,668 is the first structural test overhead
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US CPI is Wed 12:30 UTC
09:18 UTC
Range, rolling over from session high · RSI 39 · price 83,473.07
False break of Asian high, lower high, testing range base.
London open pushed through the 84181 Asian range high to an 84258 session high, then reversed about 850 points. The false break left a lower high at 83970 and has retraced nearly the whole fib from the asian low to the session high. Price is now pinned at the 83413 london low just above the 83376 asian low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39, with no BTC-specific driver and USD firm into Wednesday CPI.
Support: 83,413.00, 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,665.00, 83,970.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83376 asian low breaks the range base and exposes the 83208 swing low
Reclaim of the 83665 prior pivot puts price back inside the mid-range and eases the false-break read
Hold below the 83970 lower high keeps the post-session high sequence intact
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with thin US-holiday liquidity, could shift this read
09:07 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London open high · RSI 38 · price 83,443.11
Lower highs since the 84258 London high, price back at the Asian low.
London open briefly cleared the 84181 Asian range high to print a london high at 84258. That move failed, and price has since fallen about $845 in a chain of lower highs, losing the 83640 breakdown level and returning to the 83376–83430 asian low area. Liquidity is thin with US, Canada and Japan on holiday, and RSI(14) at 38 shows downside momentum without an oversold reading.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 83,904.60, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83376 asian low opens the 83208 sunday low
Reclaim of the 83640 breakdown level and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Move back above the 83905 lower high puts the read back to range
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC and thin holiday liquidity can produce exaggerated wicks
08:48 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from the London high · RSI 39 · price 83,514.03
False break above the Asian high, higher-low chain broken.
London open pushed through the Asian high and Sunday's 84109 peak to a london high at 84258, then reversed. The false break unwound to the 83444 london low, retracing nearly 87% of the Asian leg fib and slipping under the rising support from the 83208 sunday low. RSI(14) sits near 39 in thin holiday trade, with the US, Japan and Canada out.
Support: 83,444.00, 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,664.00, 83,970.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 83664 (broken hl) restores the higher-low chain
Lower high at 83970 caps rebounds while price holds below it
Failure to hold the 83444 london low and 83376 asian low exposes the 83208 sunday low
Reclaiming the rising support line from 83208 would neutralise the breakdown read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and thin holiday liquidity can produce outsized wicks
08:33 UTC
Intraday range, London selling off from highs · RSI 38 · price 83,569.97
Asian high rejected, London unwound Asian rally to rising lows line.
London open reversed the Asian rally. Price briefly cleared Sunday's 84109 high to set the 84258 asian high, then dropped through the 83664 broken low to the 83444 london low. It now sits on the rising lows line from 83208, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 38 in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 83,444.00, 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,664.00, 83,904.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83444 london low and the rising lows line exposes the 83376 asian low, then the 83208 sunday low
Reclaim of the 83664 broken low and the 83904 breakdown area would neutralise the London reversal; the 84258 asian high caps the range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate wicks around these levels
08:18 UTC
Intraday range, pulling back from session high · RSI 41 · price 83,577.96
Higher-low chain broken at 83664 after London-open false break above 84181.
London open printed a london high at 84258, a brief false break of the 84181 Asian peak, then a lower high at 83970 and a slide through the 83664 broken hl. Price now sits near the 78.6% fib of the 83401–84258 leg, below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~41. There is no BTC-specific news and liquidity is thin during the US holiday.
Support: 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,664.00, 83,970.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83664 broken hl and 83970 lower high restores the higher-low sequence
Break of the rising lows line (~83520) and the 83376 asian low exposes the 83208 sunday low
Full fib retrace to the 83401 base would erase the Asian-session advance
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday trade can exaggerate wicks
Rising lows from 83376; pullback after a failed push above the Asian high.
Around London open, price edged past the Asian high at 84181 to a session high of 84258, then slipped back to 83820. That puts the move near the 50% fib of the 83401–84258 leg, with RSI(14) cooling to about 47. Rising lows from the 83376 Asian low still hold below price; there is no BTC-specific news and liquidity is thin with the US, Japan and Canada on holiday.
Support: 83,665.00, 83,376.00
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,181.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83665 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 83376 Asian low
Reclaim of the 84000 round number and a close back above the 84181 Asian high would negate the false break and put the 84258 session high back in play
Holiday-thin liquidity can exaggerate wicks; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD input
07:48 UTC
Higher lows intact, pulled back off session high · RSI 56 · price 83,900.60
False break above Asian high, retracing into fib 50% zone.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 84181 to a session high of 84258, then rejected back to 83900 in thin holiday trade. Price is now testing the fib 50% zone (83830) of the 83401–84258 leg, with the higher-lows chain from 83208 through the 83664 swing low still intact. RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 83,830.00, 83,664.00, 83,376.00
Resistance: 84,181.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84258 session high negates the false break and rejection read
Failure to hold the 83664 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the asian low at 83376
Loss of the fib 50% and the rising higher-lows trendline near 83850 would leave little structure above the 83664 swing low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and thin holiday liquidity can produce exaggerated wicks; the Asian high at 84181 is the first level to reclaim
HL chain 83376/83401/83665; London open false break of Asian high.
London open pushed through the 84181 Asian high to a 24h high at 84258, then slipped back below it to 84002. That is a false break inside a higher-low chain: the Asian low at 83376, 83401, then the 83665 swing low, with RSI(14) easing to around 60 in thin, holiday-affected Monday liquidity.
Support: 83,830.00, 83,665.00, 83,376.00
Resistance: 84,181.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84181 Asian high and 84258 24h high negates the false break
Loss of the higher-low line near 83800 and the 50% fib at 83830 exposes the 83665 swing low
Break below the 83665 swing low ends the HL chain and opens the 83376 Asian low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with Waller and Wed US CPI ahead, can shift USD and yields
07:18 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 84,172.30
HH/HL chain since 04:15 UTC, Sunday high cleared.
In thin weekend-into-Monday liquidity with no fresh BTC news, Asia printed rising swing lows at 83401 and 83665. The latest leg broke Sunday's 84109 prior high and set a session high at 84258 heading into early London. RSI(14) is near 64, short of stretched, and ATR(14) of about $195 per bar points to wide intraday swings.
Support: 84,109.37, 83,931.00, 83,664.86
Resistance: 84,258.21, 84,500.00
What it said to watch
Hold above the 84109 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below it reads as a false break
Fib 38.2 retracement of the 83401–84258 leg sits near 83931
Loss of the 83665 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low trendline and the HH/HL chain
A clean M15 close above the 84258 session high exposes the 84500 psych level
Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC today; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
07:06 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 66 · price 84,131.35
Higher-low chain through Asia session, broke above Sunday high.
The Asia session built higher lows from the 83,376 asian low to the 83,401 and 83,665 swing low, then cleared the 84,109 sunday high to a fresh session high at 84,235 into London open. RSI(14) ~66, not stretched; there was no BTC-specific news over a thin weekend, so the move is chart-driven.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 84,109 sunday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 84,235 session high vs extension toward the 84,500 round number
Break of the 83,665 swing low ends the higher lows chain; losing the 83,376 asian low unwinds the Asia advance
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could shift the USD/yield backdrop
83200–84180 rotation since Sunday breakout; Asia false break above sunday high.
Thin weekend trade broke Sunday's 82900–83190 box and has since rotated between the 83208 weekend low and 84181, with higher lows at the asian low and 83665. Asia briefly cleared the 84109 sunday high to a 84181 session high but could not hold it. The pullback held the 83665 swing low near the 61.8% fib, and price is back near 83900 into the London open.
Support: 83,665.00, 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 84,026.00, 84,109.00, 84,181.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84181 session high, clearing the 84026 lower high and 84109 sunday high, invalidates the false-break read
Loss of the 83665 swing low exposes the 83376 asian low and the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 83208 weekend low ends the higher-lows sequence
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today and Waller Tue ahead of Wed US CPI could shift this read
83,200–84,180 range; rejection from new Asian high back to 61.8% fib.
Late Asia session pushed to a new window high at the 84,181 asian high at 05:00 UTC. Price was rejected back to the 83,665 intraday low, near the 61.8% fib of the 83,401–84,181 leg, and now sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 53. Higher lows at the 83,208 sunday low, the 83,376 asian low and 83,401 keep the rising trendline intact inside the range ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,665 intraday low exposes the 83,376 asian low and the rising trendline near 83,400
Reclaim of the 83,940 swing high reopens the 84,181 asian high; a close above it breaks the range top
Loss of the 83,208 sunday low invalidates the higher-low structure
London open liquidity after thin weekend trade can extend the ~162 USD ATR swings
83,208–84,181 range since Sunday's breakout; failed push above prior high.
BTC has ranged between 83,208 and 84,181 since Sunday's 15:30 UTC breakout. The rising trendline is defined by higher lows at the 83,208 swing low and the 83,376–83,401 Asia lows. A late Asia session poke above the 84,109 prior high to an 84,181 session high was rejected, and price is back testing the 83,708 pullback low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) flat at 50 in thin, news-free trade.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,708 pullback low opens a retest of the 83,376–83,401 Asia lows and the rising trendline
Loss of the trendline and 83,208 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the range floor
Reclaim of the 84,026 lower high puts the 84,109 prior high and 84,181 session high back in play
London open liquidity could extend the rejection; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the first Fed input ahead of Wed's US CPI
83208–84181 range with a higher-low chain; Asia high rejected.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC impulse from 83070 set an 83208–84181 range, with higher lows at 83208, 83376 and 83401 in thin weekend liquidity and no fresh BTC news. The Asia session briefly cleared the 84109 prior high to print an 84181 Asia high, then rejected. The pullback low at 83708 held near the 61.8% retracement of the 83401–84181 leg.
Support: 83,707.82, 83,401.15, 83,208.37
Resistance: 84,109.37, 84,181.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84181 Asia high takes out the range top; failure back under the 84109 prior high keeps the rejection in play
Break of the 83708 pullback low and the rising higher-low trendline exposes the 83401 swing low, then the 83208 range low
Thin liquidity into London open can exaggerate wicks; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next macro input
83208–84181 range with rising lows; Asian high rejected, pullback held near 61.8%.
BTC broke out of the 83000 base in thin Sunday trade (15:30 UTC), then built a range between the 83208 sunday low and the 84109 sunday high. Lows have stepped up since, through 83376 and the 83401 higher low. The Asia session spike to an 84181 asian high was rejected, and the pullback low at 83708 held near the 61.8% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 83,708.00, 83,401.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 84,109.00, 84,181.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83708 pullback low exposes the 83401 higher low and the higher-lows trendline
M15 close back above the 84109 sunday high and the 84181 asian high would extend the range top
A break below the 83208 sunday low invalidates the higher-lows read
Weekend-to-Monday liquidity is thin and wicks run around 159 points per bar; Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the larger risks
Since the Sunday-afternoon breakout from the 83,000 base, BTC has held an 83,208 range low to 84,181 band with a chain of higher lows. The Asia session pushed to a new session high at 84,181, above the 84,109 prior high, but could not hold it. Price is back near 83,825, between the 38.2% and 50% of the 83,401–84,181 rally and just above the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral at about 55. No BTC news or data landed in the window, and thin weekend-into-Asia liquidity is amplifying wicks.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,109 prior high negates the false-break read and puts the 84,181 session high back in play
A drop through the ema20 near 83,765 and the rally's 61.8% near 83,700 exposes the higher-lows trendline around 83,430
Loss of the 83,376 asian low breaks the higher-lows chain; below that, the 83,208 range low is next
Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC; US CPI on Wed is the larger catalyst for a range break
Higher lows at 83,208, 83,376 and 83,401; Asian range top broken late in the Asia session.
Since Sunday afternoon's spike, BTC held an 83,200–84,100 range with higher lows at 83,376 and 83,401. A burst from about 04:30 UTC late in the Asia session cleared the 83,940 range top and printed a session high at 84,181. Price is now hovering at Sunday's 84,109 prior high just above the 84,000 psych mark, with RSI near 67. There is no fresh BTC catalyst, and thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity is amplifying the swings.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83,940 range top would mark the move as a false break
Hold of 84,000 psych and the 84,109 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a close above the 84,181 session high extends the higher-high chain
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 83,401 swing low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
London open liquidity and Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC are the next scheduled inputs; CPI Wed is the larger macro risk
05:07 UTC
Range with rising lows, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 84,030.46
Sunday post-breakout range 83,208–84,109; higher lows at 83,208 / 83,376 / 83,401.
A roughly $670 Asia impulse off the 83,401 swing low printed a session high at 84,075, just under Sunday's 84,109 range high. The range has held since Sunday afternoon's breakout, with rising lows along a trendline. RSI(14) sits near 66 and there is no fresh BTC-specific driver, with thin weekend-into-Monday liquidity.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,109 range high breaks the Sunday range
Slip back below the 84,000 round number after rejection at the session high keeps the range read intact
Break of the 83,401 swing low and the rising lows trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 83,208 range low
Asia impulse 50–61.8% retracement at 83,738–83,658 is the first pullback zone
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst
04:48 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building · RSI 58 · price 83,943.56
83200–84110 range since Sunday breakout, rising swing lows.
Asia session ran from a higher low at 83401 off the 83600 rally base to a session high at 84018, back near the top of the 83200–84110 range that has held since Sunday's breakout. Swing lows keep rising (83208, 83376, 83401) along the higher lows trendline. RSI(14) sits at 58 and liquidity remains thin after the weekend.
Support: 83,600.00, 83,376.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 84,018.00, 84,109.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84109 sunday high breaks the range top
Failure at the 84018 session high keeps the range intact
A move back below the 83600 rally base puts the 83376 asian low back in play
A break of the 83208 swing low ends the higher lows sequence
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled USD input, ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs vs higher lows, contracting range 83400–83940.
Sunday afternoon's spike to the 84109 sunday high has faded into a tightening range. Lower highs at the 83941 asia high and 83915 sit against higher lows at the 83208 swing low and the 83376/83401 asian low. In late Asia session price is bouncing from the 61.8% retrace of the sunday impulse near 83450 but holds just under EMA20/EMA50, with RSI(14) ~42 in thin Monday liquidity and no BTC-specific catalyst.
Support: 83,400.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,941.00, 84,109.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 83400 asian low and the higher-lows line exposes the 83208 swing low
Close above the 83941 asia high and the lower-highs line reopens the 84109 sunday high
London open liquidity and Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) could expand the range; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
Thin-liquidity Sunday rally from 83,070 topped at the 84,109 Sunday high, and Asia printed lower highs at the 83,941 Asian high and 83,915 below the lower-highs trendline. Late Asia has unwound the move toward the 83,376 Asian low, below the 61.8% fib of the 83,208 swing low to Asian high leg, with price under the ema20 and RSI(14) near 31.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,376 Asian low exposes the 83,208 swing low and the 83,000 round number
Recovery back above the ema20 near 83,660 neutralises the pullback read; the 83,941 Asian high and 84,109 Sunday high cap above
Lower-highs trendline from the Sunday high stays intact while price holds below the Asian high
London open liquidity after a thin weekend can exaggerate breaks of the Asian range
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the macro inputs that could shift this read
Lower highs below 84,109; testing Asian range lower half.
Sunday's NY-session breakout from the ~83,000 base topped at the 84,109 session high. Rejections at 83,941 and 83,915 have built lower highs under a descending trendline, and price now sits at 83,490 below the fib 50% (83,531). Momentum is fading, with RSI(14) near 39, the Asian low at 83,376 just below, and the old range top at 83,190 under the 83,208 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,376 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 83,208 swing low and 83,190 range top
Close above the descending trendline and 83,941 asian high negates the lower-high sequence and reopens the 84,109 session high
Fib 61.8% at ~83,395 sits next to the asian low; a hold there keeps the breakout retracement read intact
Weekend-to-Monday thin liquidity can exaggerate wicks; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next USD input before Wed CPI
Contracting range: lower highs from 84109, higher lows from 83208.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC spike from 83073 to the 84109 sunday high has since compressed into lower highs and higher lows, with the 83208 swing low marking the base. In thin weekend liquidity and no fresh BTC news, the Asia session was rejected at 83915, just under the 83941 asian high. Price is now pressing the session low near 83494, with the 83376 asian low and the rising lows trendline just beneath. RSI(14) is near 41 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 84,109.37
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83376 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 83208 swing low
Recapture of the 83941 asian high undoes the lower-high trendline read; 84109 sunday high is the next cap
London open liquidity could resolve the contraction either way given ATR near 150 points
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC remains the dominant scheduled catalyst for BTC this week
Lower highs from 84109 against higher lows from 83208, contracting.
Sunday's thin-liquidity breakout from 83050 topped at the 84109 session high. Since then the tape has formed a pennant of lower highs (83941, 83915) and higher lows (83208, 83376). Early Asia session price is back below both EMAs and testing the 83541 recent low, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and no fresh BTC news.
Support: 83,541.00, 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 84,109.37
What it said to watch
A break of the 83541 recent low exposes the 83376 higher low; losing that ends the pennant read and puts the 83208 swing low in play
An M15 close above the 83915 lower high and descending trendline reopens the 84109 session high
Thin early-week liquidity can still produce wick-driven false breaks of the pennant edges
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and the run-up to Wednesday's US CPI could shift the USD tone behind this read
03:18 UTC
Range after Sunday impulse, highs compressing · RSI 45 · price 83,595.94
Lower highs 84109/83942/83916 vs higher lows 83208/83376.
Thin weekend tape saw a 15:30 UTC Sunday spike from 83073 to the 84109 sunday high, and price has since compressed into a pennant between lower highs and higher lows. Mid-Asia, the asian high at 83942 and asian low at 83376 bracket price, now at 83596 just under EMA20/EMA50 after another rejection at 83916.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 83,941.56, 84,109.37
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83376 asian low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 83208 swing low
Close above the 83942 asian high reopens the 84109 sunday high
London open liquidity is the first real test of the Asian range; Hammack 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC sit ahead of Wed CPI
Lower highs from 84109 against higher lows from 83208, contracting mid-range.
Sunday's thin-liquidity breakout from the 82720–83190 weekend range topped at the 84109 range high. Since then, price has compressed between a lower high at 83941 and a swing low at 83376, which held near the 61.8% retrace. Early Asia session trades mid-pennant at 83690, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 84,109.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83941 lower high and the descending trendline would break the pennant toward the 84109 range high
Failure to hold the 83376 swing low exposes the 83208 range low and the 82953 breakout base
Monday's liquidity return after thin weekend trade can produce outsized wicks; Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) precedes Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs vs higher lows after the 15:30 UTC breakout.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC breakout from the 82,900–83,190 base ran to a range high at 84,109. Price has since compressed between lower highs (83,941 asia high, 83,915) and higher lows (83,208 swing low, 83,376 asia low). Early Asia session trades mid-structure near 83,820 with RSI(14) ~59; there is no fresh BTC driver and liquidity is thin.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,941 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 84,109 range high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,376 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 83,208 swing low
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC could shift USD/yields tone; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the bigger catalyst
02:32 UTC
Post-breakout consolidation, range compressing · RSI 59 · price 83,818.69
Lower highs from 84,109, higher lows from 83,208, forming a pennant.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC impulse broke the 82,720–83,190 weekend range and peaked at the 84,109 swing high. Since then price has compressed between the pennant top and pennant base: a lower high at the 83,941 asian high and a higher low at the 83,376 asian low, with RSI(14) near 59 and thin weekend liquidity per the digest.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83,941 asian high breaks the pennant top and puts the 84,109 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,376 asian low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 83,208 swing low
Loss of the 83,208 swing low returns price toward the old 83,190 breakout area
Wicks are likely to stay wide (ATR near 143 points) into the London open on thin liquidity
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Wed US CPI could materially shift this read
02:18 UTC
Post-breakout, compressing below high · RSI 57 · price 83,728.79
Lower highs and higher lows after the Sunday impulse.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC impulse cleared the weekend range near 83190 and set a session high at 84109. Since then price has compressed into a pennant, with a lower high at 83942 and a higher low at the 83376 swing low. Early Asia session trade is back at 83729, mid-pattern, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 on thin liquidity.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 83,941.56, 84,109.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83942 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 84109 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 83376 swing low breaks the pennant base and the higher-low chain, exposing the 83208 prior low
Thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity can produce exaggerated wicks through either pattern boundary
US CPI on Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC is the main macro catalyst that could reset this structure
Contracting range: lower high at 83941, higher low at 83376.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC impulse from 83074 to the 84109 range high has given way to a contracting range. The Asia session rejected a lower high at 83941 (asia high) and set a higher low at 83376 (asia low). Price is back near the 50% fib retrace around 83590 and flat to EMA20, RSI(14) neutral at about 52, in thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity with no fresh BTC driver.
Support: 83,376.18, 83,208.37
Resistance: 84,109.37
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83941 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 84109 range high
Failure to hold the 83376 asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 83208 swing low and 61.8% fib near 83470
No calendar events in the next 8h; Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) is the first scheduled USD risk ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Higher low 83,208 vs lower high 83,942; pressing the Asia low.
Sunday afternoon's break of the 82,720–83,190 range ran to the 84,109 swing high, and the pullback retested the breakout base at 83,208. The early-Asia rebound was rejected at a lower high of 83,942. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 to the 83,561 asia low, roughly the 50% retrace of the rebound, with RSI(14) near 41 in thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity.
What it said to watch
Close below the 83,561 asia low and 83,506 swing low (near the 61.8% rebound fib) extends the lower-high sequence toward the 83,208 breakout base
Reclaim of the ema20 near 83,658 and a close above the 83,942 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 84,109 swing high
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC precede Wed CPI; thin early-Monday liquidity can exaggerate wicks
Lower high at 83941 under 84109; rebound trendline broken.
Sunday's 15:30 UTC breakout from the 82900–83190 range topped at the 84109 sunday high. The rebound off the 83208 pivot low stalled at the 83941 asia high, a lower high, and the 01:15 rejection cut through the rebound trendline and the ema20 toward the 50% rebound fib near 83575. Price is in thin early-Asia liquidity with no fresh BTC driver, so wicks can be outsized.
Support: 83,506.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,941.00, 84,109.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 83506 swing low exposes the 83208 pivot low and the old 83190 range top
Reclaim of the ema20 and a push through the 83941 asia high reopens the 84109 sunday high
Hold of the 50–61.8% rebound fib (83575–83488) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and Monday liquidity returning could shift this read
Sunday afternoon's breakout from the 82,720–83,190 range ran to the 84,109 sunday high. The pullback to 83,208 retested the old range top and held the 78.6% level of the breakout fib. Higher lows along the rising trendline have since carried price back to the 83,942 Asia session high in thin weekend-into-Monday liquidity, with RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,942 session high and the 84,109 sunday high extends the higher-high sequence
Break of the rising trendline and ema20 near 83,690 stalls the recovery; the 83,506 swing low is next
Failure at the 83,208 pullback low negates the breakout retest and returns price to the old range
Thin liquidity into the Monday open; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC sits just beyond this window, with US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC the larger catalyst
01:07 UTC
Uptrend, recovering from pullback · RSI 62 · price 83,868.64
Higher lows off 83,208, pressing swing high.
Sunday's 15:15 UTC impulse lifted BTC out of the 82,720–83,190 range to an 84,109 sunday high. The pullback held the 83,208 swing low just above the old range top, and a rising lows sequence has since carried price back to 83,870 into the Asia session open, with RSI(14) near 62 and no fresh BTC news behind the move. Price now sits just under the 83,954 swing high in thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,954 swing high exposes the 84,109 sunday high
Break below the 83,580 higher low ends the rising lows chain
Loss of the 83,208 swing low drops price back toward the old 83,190 range top
Thin Asia liquidity raises wick risk; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled macro input
Sunday afternoon's breakout from the 82720–83190 range ran to a session high at 84109. The pullback low at 83208 retested the old range top near the 61.8% fib of the move. Higher lows along a rising trendline have since lifted price to 83750 into the Asia session, with a rejection at 83885 on the last full bar and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 83,598.00, 83,506.00, 83,208.00
Resistance: 83,885.00, 84,109.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83885 rejection reopens the 84109 session high
Break of the 83598 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 83506 swing low
Loss of the 83208 pullback low negates the breakout and retest read
Thin weekend-to-Monday liquidity can produce outsized wicks; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC
Post-breakout retest held; HH/HL chain since 83208.
Sunday's thin-liquidity breakout from the 82720–83190 range ran to an 84109 spike high. The pullback held at an 83208 retest low just above the old range top. Early Asia session has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline, and price is pressing the 61.8% retracement near 83765 just under the 83799 swing high.
Support: 83,659.90, 83,208.40
Resistance: 83,798.70, 84,109.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83799 swing high opens a retest of the 84109 spike high
Break of the rising trendline and the 83660 higher low exposes the 83208 retest low
Weekend liquidity is thin into the Monday open, so wicks can be exaggerated; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next macro input ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Sunday's 82,720–83,190 range broke higher at 15:30 UTC in thin weekend trade and spiked to the 84,109 spike high. The pullback held at the 83,208 swing low, just above the old range top. A higher-low sequence and rising lows trendline have since carried price into early Asia session, where it sits near the 50% pullback fib and tests the 83,700 session high. RSI(14) is around 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 83,700 session high opens the path back toward the 84,109 spike high
Break below the 83,580 higher low breaks the rising lows trendline
Loss of the 83,208 swing low puts price back toward the prior weekend range
Thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate wicks; US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst