Lower highs from 84,078 double top; 79,737–82,835 range since Thursday.
The 84,078 double top from Tuesday and Wednesday's London sessions gave way into the NY open on Wednesday, starting a leg down. That leg ended in a sweep to the 79,737 week low on the hot US PPI and retail sales prints Thursday, then reversed roughly 2,500 within four hours as the USD slid despite the data. Friday's London push failed at 82,835 (friday high), and the NY session sold back to an 80,722 friday low; price now sits just above the 38.2% fib, below the 50% retrace and under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the lower-highs trendline and 82,835 friday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of 80,722 friday low exposes the 79,737 week low and the Thursday sweep
Reclaim of the 50% retrace at 81,908 would put price back above EMA(20)
Weekend IMF headlines (Oct 17–18) on thin crypto liquidity could gap price through these levels
Tue Oct 20 housing data and ADP could shift USD and the read
Lower highs since the 84,078 double top; price is back below the PPI-reversal range and testing the Friday low.
Tuesday's and Wednesday's double top at 84,078 broke down in Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's hot US PPI print then swept price to a week low of 79,737, and it reversed sharply as the dollar faded. The rebound stalled at the Friday high of 82,835, extending the lower-highs sequence. NY-session selling has since pushed price back below EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline at 81,395, with RSI(14) near 35 and the Friday low at 80,722 under test.
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the Friday low at 80,722 exposes the 80,000 psych level and the 79,737 week low.
A recovery above EMA(20) near 81,730 and the 38.2% fib would put price back inside the 81,900–82,300 post-PPI range.
A break of the lower-highs trendline and the Friday high at 82,835 would invalidate the downtrend read.
Weekend IMF meetings and Fed-speak on hike pricing after the 6.3% PPI print could materially shift this read.
18:06 UTC
Downtrend from the double top, rebound faded · RSI 36 · price 81,117.67
Lower highs below 84078, holding a higher low above the 79737 week low.
Matching rejections at 84078 in Tuesday's and Wednesday's London sessions formed a double top. The break below 83000 at Wednesday's London-NY transition then began a run of lower lows into Thursday's 79737 week low, printed on the hot US PPI before the dollar faded and price snapped back above the 61.8% fib. Friday's London push stalled at 82834, a lower high under the lower-highs trendline, and the NY session has slid back below EMA(20) near 81850 and EMA(50) toward the 80722 session low, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 80,722.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 81,850.00, 82,834.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80722 session low breaks the higher-low trendline from Thursday and exposes the 79737 week low
H1 close back above EMA(20) near 81850 and the 50% fib at 81908 would ease the downside read
A close above the 82834 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the double top
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the weekend IMF meetings could shift USD and risk tone
Double top at 84078, lower high at 82835, mid-range between week extremes.
Twin London-open rejections at 84078 on Tuesday and Wednesday formed a double top. The break lower ran through the 80165 swing low into a 79737 week low during Thursday's NY open, then reversed sharply as the dollar slid despite hot PPI and retail prints. Friday's London push stalled at 82835 for a lower high, and NY hours have unwound it to the 81158 day low, leaving price below EMA(20) and the 38.2% retrace near 81395 with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 81,157.62, 80,164.72, 79,737.19
Resistance: 81,850.00, 82,834.78, 84,078.41
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 near 81850 and the 50% fib at 81908 reopens the 82835 lower high
Failure to hold the 81158 day low exposes the 80165 swing low and the 79737 week low
A break of the lower-highs trendline from the 84078 double top would negate the corrective read
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF meetings could shift the USD-driven tone into the weekly close
16:06 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since midweek double top · RSI 36 · price 81,212.56
Lower high at 82,835 below the week's 84,078 double top; Friday range low at 81,600 lost in the NY session.
Rejections at 84,078 near the London open on Tuesday and Wednesday formed a double top, which broke in Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's flush after the hot PPI print set the week low at 79,737, followed by a sharp V-rebound as the dollar slid. Friday's lower high at 82,835 stalled under the falling lower-highs line, and the NY-session drop has taken price back below the 81,600 range low and the ema20 near 81,900, with RSI(14) at about 36. The fib 38.2% at 81,395 has given way, leaving the 81,000 round number and the 80,165 swing low as the next references.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 81,600 range low and the ema20 (~81,900) would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 81,000 round number exposes the 80,165 swing low and the 79,737 week low
H1 close above the 82,835 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence from 84,078
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF Fedspeak could shift USD and materially change this read
Lower highs below 84078; post-flush range 81600–82835.
The 84,078 double top from Tuesday and Wednesday gave way in Wednesday's NY session. The slide extended to a 79,737 week low in the first hour of NY Thursday on the hot PPI print, then the dollar's failure to hold its post-data gains fed a sharp V-rebound. That recovery has stalled in the 50–61.8% fib zone, with the 82,835 Friday high rejected and price back below EMA(20) near 82,050, as RSI(14) at 43 sits mid-range inside an 81,600–82,830 consolidation.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 81,600 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at 81,395 and the 79,737 week low
Close above the 82,835 Friday high and the lower highs line from the 84,078 double top would break the post-top sequence
Holding below EMA(20) at 82,050 keeps rallies capped inside the 50–61.8% fib zone
Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and weekend IMF remarks could shift USD and this read
14:04 UTC
Downtrend from double top, stabilising in a range · RSI 45 · price 81,942.76
Lower highs from 84,078; range 81,600–82,835 above Thursday low.
Monday–Wednesday held a 83,000–84,078 range that capped twice at the same high, a double top printed in Tuesday and Wednesday London mornings, before Wednesday's NY session broke lower and Thursday extended to 79,737 around the hot US PPI and retail sales release, then reversed sharply to the 82,540 thu high. Since then price has compressed between 81,600 and 82,835 around EMA(20) and the 50% retrace of the week's decline fib, with RSI(14) near 45. Today's push to the 82,835 today high met rejection along the lower-highs line, and the post-Industrial Production dip held at the 81,600 today low.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 81,600 today low exposes the fib 38.2 at 81,395 and then the 79,737 thu low
Acceptance above the 82,540 thu high and the 82,835 today high would break the lower-highs trendline and the post-Thursday range
84,078 double top remains the week's ceiling; only a return above 83,000 would reopen that range
Thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) and any Fed-speak could amplify moves out of this range
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a range · RSI 47 · price 81,973.72
Lower highs below the double top; 81600–82835 range.
The 84078 high printed on Tuesday and again on Wednesday to form a double top, which gave way into Wednesday's NY open. The week's decline extended to the 79737 week low on Thursday's hot PPI print, then reversed sharply during NY hours as the dollar faded the strong data. Since then price has held a range between the 81597 asian low, set around Warsh's remarks, and the friday high at 82835, where a London spike through the 61.8% retracement was rejected, leaving price back below EMA(20) near 82050 at the 50% level with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 81,597.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,050.00, 82,835.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC lands inside the current bar and could break the 81597–82835 range
H1 close below the asian low at 81597 reopens the 79737 week low
Sustained trade above ema20 and the friday high at 82835 would break the lower highs sequence from the double top
Thin weekend liquidity during the IMF meetings can amplify any range break
12:04 UTC
Downtrend from mid-week double top, recovering from Thursday low · RSI 57 · price 82,551.09
Lower low at 79,737 then higher low at 81,597; price testing 61.8% retracement.
Tuesday's and Wednesday's London-morning highs printed a double top at 84,078. The market broke lower after Wednesday's hot CPI and extended to a week low of 79,737 in the first hour of NY on Thursday after the PPI beat, then reversed sharply as the USD gave back its data gains. Since then price has built a higher low at 81,597 (Friday low) and holds above EMA(20) near 82,200 with RSI(14) at 57, while today's London session push stalled at 82,835 (session high), around the 61.8% retracement of the 84,078–79,737 drop and just under the old Tue–Wed range floor at 83,000.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,000 range floor reopens the 84,078 double top
Failure at the session high and 61.8% retracement keeps the rebound a retracement within the week's decline
A break of rising support and the 81,597 Friday low returns focus to the 79,737 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top broke lower; rebound now ranging 81597–82540.
Twin rejections at the 84078 double top on Tuesday and Wednesday gave way to a Wednesday Asia-session breakdown. The selling ran to a week low of 79737 early Thursday before a sharp reclaim, and the hot PPI and retail sales prints failed to extend the decline as US data beats were faded. Since then price has compressed between 81597 and 82540, with the range high sitting at the 61.8% fib of the week's decline and RSI(14) near 53 as EMA(20) around 82000 flattens just above EMA(50).
Support: 82,000.00, 81,597.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,540.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82540 range high (61.8% fib) would open the path back toward the 84078 double top
Failure to hold the 81597 range low would put the 79737 week low back in play
Sustained trade below EMA(20) near 82000 would shift price into the lower half of the range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, plus thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings, could break the range
Lower highs and lower lows this week; post-PPI rebound now ranging 81597–82539.
A double top at the 84078 week high, printed at the Tuesday and Wednesday London opens, gave way at the London-NY transition on Wednesday as hot US CPI hit. That extended the week's lower highs and lower lows to a 79737 week low on Thursday's PPI beat. The low was rejected sharply in the NY session as the dollar slid despite the data. Price has since held a consolidation between the 81597 range floor and the 82539 range top, near the 50% retrace, with lower highs inside the range and price now slipping just under the ema20 and EMA(50) cluster.
Support: 81,597.14, 81,395.50, 79,737.19
Resistance: 82,080.00, 82,539.10, 84,078.41
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82539 range top breaks the lower highs inside the consolidation and opens the 83816 swing high, then the 84078 week high
Failure to hold the 81597 range floor exposes the fib 38.2 at 81396 and then the 79737 week low
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 82080 would neutralise the drift lower within the range
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and thin weekend liquidity around the IMF meetings could materially shift this read
Double top at 84,078, V-reversal from 79,737 low, tight band below 82,540.
The week high at 84,078 was printed twice, around Tuesday's and Wednesday's London open. Wednesday's NY session then broke lower after the hot US CPI, and the slide reached a 79,737 week low in Thursday's PPI hour. That low failed fast: price reversed back above 81,800 as USD faded the data beats on falling yields. Since Thursday's NY afternoon, price has compressed between the 81,597 swing low and the 82,540 rebound high, holding just above EMA(20) near 81,990. It sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 84,078–79,737 drop, with RSI(14) near 56.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 rebound high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 83,400 breakdown area
Loss of EMA(20) and the 81,597 swing low would reopen the path toward the 79,737 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and moves in Treasury yields could break the current band
Recovery toward the 84,078 week high would need to clear the 83,400 breakdown area first
Double top break to a lower low, sharp recovery into a 81,600–82,540 range.
Two rejections at 84,078 in Tuesday's and Wednesday's London mornings formed a double top. The break of the 82,910 neckline at the London-NY transition on Wednesday drove the week's dominant leg down to a 79,737 week low in the first hour of NY after Thursday's hot PPI. The dollar faded the data and price reclaimed 81,800 within the hour, then stalled at the 82,539 post-PPI high near the 61.8% fib of the decline. Since then a tight consolidation has held above the Asian low at 81,597, with price just above a flattening EMA(20) near 81,975 and RSI(14) around 57.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,539 post-PPI high opens a retest of the 82,910 neckline
Loss of the 81,597 Asian low and the higher lows trendline returns focus to the 79,737 week low
Sustained trade back below the EMA(20) near 81,975 would put the recovery off the week low at risk
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could break the consolidation; a beat that firms yields and the USD would test the post-PPI reclaim
Double top at 84078, flush to 79737, tight consolidation under lower highs.
BTC capped twice at 84078 at the London open on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a double top. Wednesday's NY-hours breakdown cut through the 83050 range floor, and Thursday's NY session dipped to a 79737 week low in the hour after the hot PPI print. That dip was a false break below the earlier 80165 low and reversed sharply as USD faded the data and yields slid. The rebound stalled near the 61.8% fib of the week's decline, and price has since compressed between the 81597 session low and the 82540 rebound high under a run of lower highs. It holds just above EMA(20) at ~81915 and sits on EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 53.
Support: 81,915.00, 81,597.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,540.00, 83,050.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82540 rebound high clears the lower-highs cap and the 61.8% fib, putting the 83050 range floor back in play
Failure to hold the 81597 session low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 38.2% fib near 81400, then the 79737 week low
Repeated closes back below EMA(20) would show the post-PPI recovery losing traction
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed-speak at the IMF meetings; a renewed USD/yield move could materially shift this read
84078 double top remains the week's ceiling while price trades below the 83050 range floor
Lower highs from 84,078; tight range 81,600–82,540 since Thursday's spike low.
Tuesday and Wednesday printed a double top at 84,078, and the NY-session breakdown on Wednesday set a lower-high, lower-low sequence. The hot US PPI print on Thursday produced a sweep to the week low at 79,737 that reversed within the hour as the dollar faded the data. Since then the bounce has stalled between the Friday asian low at 81,600 and the post-PPI high at 82,540, near the 61.8% retracement, with price holding just above the ema20 and RSI(14) at 56.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 post-PPI high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 84,078 double top back in view
Loss of the ema20 and the 81,600 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 79,737 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today (f/c 0.4%) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Further Fed-speak from the IMF meetings over the weekend is a risk to the current consolidation
04:04 UTC
Downtrend from midweek, stabilising in a range · RSI 52 · price 81,935.77
Lower highs from 84,078 double top; post-PPI range 81,600–82,540.
A second rejection at the 84,078 week high completed a double top, and Wednesday's NY session drove the dominant leg lower. Thursday's hot PPI print extended the slide to a 79,737 week low, but that false break reversed within the first hour of NY as the USD faded with falling yields. Since then price has held a 81,600–82,540 range near the 50% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and price wedged between EMA(20) and EMA(50) at roughly 82,040.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 range top breaks the lower highs sequence and exposes the 84,078 week high
Failure to hold the 81,597 Asia low shifts focus back to the 80,165 prior low and the 79,737 week low
Sustained H1 closes above EMA(50) near 82,040 would mark the first shift in midweek structure
Fed Chair Warsh's speech could materially shift this read; US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC follows
Lower highs from 84078; tight range 81840–82540 after Thursday's sweep below 80,000.
After a Monday high near 84258, the double top at 84078 broke down on Wednesday. The slide extended to a week low of 79737 on Thursday, briefly sweeping below 80,000, before a sharp NY-session reversal as USD and yields slipped despite the hot PPI print. Since then BTC has compressed between the range low at 81840 and the range high at 82540, stalling between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, sitting on EMA(20) (~81910) but under the ema50 near 82040, with RSI(14) flat around 49.
Support: 81,840.00, 81,396.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,040.00, 82,540.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could break the 81840–82540 range either way; the digest flags hawkish risk for BTC
H1 close above the range high at 82540 clears the 61.8% retracement and the lower highs trendline, opening the 83000–83800 shelf below the double top
Failure to hold the range low at 81840 exposes the fib 38.2 at 81396, then the week low at 79737
Repeated closes below the ema50 at 82040 keep the rebound capped inside the downtrend structure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Lower highs off 84078 double top; post-PPI bounce capped near 61.8%.
Rejected twice at the 84078 double top on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Wednesday NY-session breakdown then printed lower lows down to the 79737 week low shortly after Thursday's hot PPI. Falling Treasury yields and a fading USD drove a sharp NY-hours reversal to an 82539 rebound high, just above the 61.8% fib of the week's drop, while the lower-highs line stays intact. Since then price has compressed between the 81841 swing low and that high through the Asia session. It sits marginally above EMA(20) near 81880 and just under EMA(50) near 82050, with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 81,841.00, 80,000.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,539.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 82539 rebound high and the lower-highs line would break the week's downtrend sequence and put the 84078 double top back in view
Failure to hold the 81841 swing low exposes the 80000 round number and the 79737 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is a secondary catalyst during NY hours
Lower highs from 84258; post-PPI rebound consolidating 81840–82540.
Lower highs since Monday's 84258 peak, and the 84078 double top from Tuesday and Wednesday gave way to a breakdown into the London-NY transition on Wednesday. Thursday's hot PPI print drove a false break to a 79737 week low around the NY open. Price then reversed sharply as USD faded the data and yields fell.
Support: 81,880.00, 81,290.00, 79,737.00
Resistance: 82,540.00, 83,000.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC is the immediate risk. A hike-leaning tone that pushes price back below the 81880 ema20 would put the 81290 range base in focus.
The rebound has stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday drop, capped by the 82540 rebound high. RSI(14) has recovered to ~55 from the low 30s.
An H1 close above the 82540 rebound high opens 83000 psych and the 84078 double top along the lower highs line.
Failure to hold the 81290 range base would put the 79737 week low back in play.
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is a secondary data check for the growth-vs-inflation read.
Lower highs since Monday; consolidation below 82,540 after a sweep of 80k.
BTC capped twice at 84,078 on Tuesday and Wednesday, a double top. It then broke the 83,050 range floor in Wednesday's NY session and slid to a 79,737 week low around Thursday's hot US PPI, before reversing sharply as Treasury yields fell and the USD faded the data. The rebound stalled at 82,540, near the 61.8% retracement of the 84,078–79,737 leg, and price has since compressed between 81,840 and 82,540. It sits above the ema20 (~81,820) and roughly on EMA(50) near 82,100, with RSI(14) in the upper 50s.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,540 rebound high and the 61.8% retracement opens the 83,050 range floor, then the lower-highs line
Loss of the ema20 near 81,820 and the rebound lows trendline returns focus to the 80,965 tuesday low and the 79,737 week low
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC; his read on the hot PPI could materially shift this read
US Industrial Production Fri 13:15 UTC during NY hours