Lower highs since Oct-2025 peak; four-week range capped by W1 EMA(50).
Regime: the 126,174 high in Q4-2025 opened a three-quarter downtrend that bottomed at 57,741 in late June, after which price built a base and broke out in a single +23% weekly candle in mid-August. The last four weeks have consolidated between the 74,900 range low and the 82,178 range high, with price closing at 76,176 and still under the w1 ema50 near 79,700 — the macro filter has not yet flipped, and the stall sits just under the 38.2% macro fib around 83,900. The hawkish Fed hike to 4% with a marked-up dot path leaves the liquidity backdrop working against crypto, consistent with the loss of upside momentum after the breakout week; weekly RSI at 50 is mid-range and carries no signal at this scale.
What it said to watch
A weekly close above the 79,700 w1 ema50 would be the first since the Q3 breakout; acceptance above the 82,178 range high exposes the 88,300 old support band
Loss of the 74,900 range low re-opens 70,000 psych and, beneath it, the 62,500 base floor and the base support line
Fed rate path is the dominant macro input at this horizon — further upward drift in the dot path would reinforce the sub-EMA(50) regime
Higher low off the base, consolidating under ema50.
The dominant regime remains the distribution and markdown from the 126,174 peak set in Q4, which carried price into a three-month base between roughly 62,500 and 67,200 and a base floor at 57,741. That base was resolved with a single +23% weekly candle to 79,453, and the last four weeks have consolidated in a 74,900–82,178 band; price holds above a turning-up ema20 near 71,960 but has still not managed a weekly close above the falling ema50 at 79,670, so the macro downtrend is not yet structurally repaired. The hawkish Fed dot-plot shift — the path marked up to 4.1% with the hike itself in line — is the macro headwind behind last week's fade back to 76,176; weekly RSI near 61 is mid-range and carries no signal at this scale.
What it said to watch
A weekly close above the 79,670 ema50 would be the first since the peak breakdown and would challenge the markdown regime
Acceptance above the 82,178 prior high would open the 90,000 psych handle as the next multi-quarter reference
Loss of the 74,900 range low would mark the breakout week as a failed expansion and put the 62,500 prior base back in scope; the 57,741 base floor is the wider structural pivot
Sustained dollar strength on the marked-up dot path, plus S&P Global Services PMI on 23 Sep, are the macro inputs most likely to reshape this read over coming weeks