21:09 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from cycle high · RSI 65 · price 84,299.16
Stair-step HH/HL; Sep range break, first pullback.
BTCUSD has been in a stair-step uptrend since the Aug 19–21 breakout from the summer 62.5k–66.9k range. The late-Aug to mid-Sep consolidation between the 74,902 sep low and the 82,178 range top resolved higher on Sep 18 and ran to an 87,273 cycle high on Sep 21. Wednesday's hot US PMIs lifted yields and the dollar, and price was rejected just under that high, pulling back toward 84.3k. Price holds above the ema20 near 80,400 and a rising EMA(50) near 75,950, with RSI cooling to about 65 from overbought-adjacent readings.
What it said to watch
- Daily close back below the 82,178 range top would put the Sep breakout into question and bring the ema20 near 80,400 into view
- Rising trend support from the Aug 17 low, now near 78,170, sits just above the 38.2% level of the Aug–Sep fib (~77,800)
- Failure to hold the 74,902 sep low, which is roughly the 50% fib retracement, would break the higher-low chain
- Daily close above the 87,273 cycle high opens the path to the 90,000 round number
- Fri durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed's Williams/Hammack could materially shift this read via US yields and USD