The slide from Thursday's 84296 high ran into Saturday afternoon's flush to the 79174 week low. Since then, the rebound has stalled near the 23.6% retracement of that move. Sunday has printed lower highs at 80955 and 80851 against rising lows at 79991 and the 80112 swing low, a compressing consolidation that sits just under ema20 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) flat near 47. Weekend flows are crypto-native with the macro calendar dark, and the firm-USD, hawkish-hold backdrop into Wednesday's FOMC remains a mild headwind.
Support: 80,112.00, 80,000.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,955.00, 81,975.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 80112 swing low and the 80000 psych level breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 79174 week low back in play
Recovery above ema20 and the 80955 sunday high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 38.2% retracement near 81130, with the 81975 friday high above
Tuesday's US Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and Wednesday's FOMC (hold at 4% expected) could resolve the compression either way via the USD
Lower highs from Friday's 81975 range top; weekend base above 79174 week low.
The dominant move came late Wednesday into Thursday's Asia and London hours, a slide from 84430 to the 81300s. A Thursday–Friday range then capped at the 81975 range top, with a firm USD after Friday's PMI beats adding a mild headwind. That range gave way into the weekend, and a Saturday flush set the 79174 week low; the rebound has since printed lower highs at 80955 and 80851, the latest bounce fading short of the 38.2% retrace of the week's sell-off. Price now sits back below the ema20 near 80450 with RSI(14) slipping under 50, holding above Sunday's 79991 swing low on a rising line off the week low.
Support: 79,991.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,450.00, 80,955.00, 81,975.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80955 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 81975 range top sits next above
Loss of the 79991 swing low and the rising week-low line exposes a retest of the 79174 week low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 80450 keeps the bounce structure corrective
Tue Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and Wed FOMC (f/c hold 4.00%) could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs since Thursday; compression between 79990 and 80955.
BTC has carved a lower-high sequence since Thursday's slide from 84765. Friday's PMI beat produced a spike-and-reverse from 81975, and Saturday afternoon's flush printed the week low at 79174 before buyers stepped in. Sunday has compressed between the 79990 swing low and the 80955 range top, with Sunday's 80851 lower high, the declining trendline and the 23.6% fib near 80495 capping rebounds. Price sits back under the EMA(20) around 80520, with RSI(14) holding in the low-to-mid 40s.
Support: 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,520.00, 80,850.96, 80,954.85
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 79990 swing low reopens the 79174 week low
H1 close above the 80851 lower high and the 80955 range top breaks the declining trendline and the lower-high sequence
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 80520 keeps the downtrend read intact
Tue Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and Wed FOMC (f/c hold 4.00%) are the next macro catalysts; a firm USD read has been a mild headwind