21:08 UTC
Range after pullback, higher lows forming · RSI 55 · price 84,605.83
Double top completed, rising lows under flat 85,000 range top.
The mid-month impulse from 74,900 to 87,270 ended in a double top. The break of the 85,000 neckline ran to the 82,800 swing low, close to the measured move and just above the 38.2% retracement. Since then price has printed rising lows at 83,060 and a higher low at 83,700, capped by a flat range top near 85,080, with ATR(14) contracting to roughly 54,000 pips from the expansion phase. Price sits above both EMA20 and EMA50, and the firm USD and yield backdrop after last week's US data beats has so far kept rallies contained below the range top.
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 85,080 range top breaks the consolidation and brings the 87,270 double top highs back into view
- Loss of the 83,700 higher low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 82,800 swing low; below that, the 50% fib at 81,090 is the next reference
- Wed ADP (f/c 70K) and PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
- Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers may set the tone for the range edges ahead of Wednesday