Lower highs from 1.1796 peak, range forming 1.1590-1.1685.
Price rolled over from the 1.1796 swing high two weeks ago, printing a sequence of lower highs into the 1.1576 month low before stabilising in a 1.1590-1.1685 range. Last week's rejection at 1.1686 and Monday's flush to 1.1605 keep sellers in control on the swing, though RSI near 48 and price holding the EMA20 suggest momentum is flattening rather than extending. ECB and FOMC framing in the news flow is keeping the pair range-bound ahead of those decisions.
Support: 1.1630, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1672, 1.1686, 1.1727
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1672 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.1630 range low opens path back to 1.1586 swing low
Upcoming June ECB and FOMC meetings flagged in news could materially shift this read
Price has carved a lower-high sequence from 1.1796 down to 1.1685, with the recent rally to 1.1685 rejected and rolling over back toward the 1.1617 swing low. Broader picture is a 200-pip range between 1.1586 and 1.1718 over the last two weeks, with both EMA20 and EMA50 capping bounces. ATR(14) around 21 pips reflects compression inside that range — directional resolution still pending.
Support: 1.1617, 1.1586, 1.1576
Resistance: 1.1672, 1.1686, 1.1718
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1586 range low confirms continuation of the downtrend
Reclaim of 1.1718 swing high invalidates the lower-high read
Rejection at the 1.1672–1.1686 ema50 zone keeps sellers in control
01:00 UTC
Downtrend, base building · RSI 45 · price 1.16343
Lower highs into 1.1600 demand, basing attempt.
Price has carved a sequence of lower highs from 1.1796 down to 1.1686, with the most recent push into 1.1686 rejected sharply back below the EMA20. Since mid-window the pair has consolidated in a 1.1576-1.1661 range, with 1.1605 acting as a swing low pivot defended twice. ATR has compressed versus the earlier impulse, consistent with basing inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 1.1605, 1.1576, 1.1583
Resistance: 1.1661, 1.1686, 1.1717
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1661 swing high neutralises the lower-high sequence
Break and hold below 1.1576 range low extends the downtrend
Hormuz/oil-driven USD bid is the main external risk to this range read