Double top 1.1273/1.1268, price testing the Wed low neckline.
The week's impulse came in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic sweep hit the dollar, carrying EUR/USD from the 1.1180 Tue low to a 1.1273 week high, but Thursday's push stalled at 1.1268 and left a double top. Lower jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks drove a London-NY slide to the 1.1203 Thu low, briefly under the 1.1213 Wed low, and the NY bounce capped at 1.1244, extending the sequence of lower highs. Price now sits below EMA(20) near the 61.8% retracement of the Tue low–week high fib, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1228, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 Thu low confirms the double top through the 1.1213 Wed low neckline and exposes the 1.1180 Tue low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1228 and the 1.1244 lower high would break the Thursday lower highs line and negate the double-top read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Lane and Williams both speak at 09:30 UTC beforehand
Lower highs since Thursday's London open, price at the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's impulse.
Wednesday's election-led USD selloff lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1180 impulse base to the 1.1273 week high. Thursday's Asia retest stalled at the 1.1268 Thu high, and lower US jobless claims plus hawkish Fed remarks then pulled price back below EMA(20). The pullback carried through London and into the NY session, reaching the 1.1203 Thu low. That dip under the 1.1213 Wed low was a false break, with closes holding above it, but lower highs since the London open, most recently 1.1244, leave 1.1273/1.1268 reading as a potential double top on the 1.1203–1.1213 neckline, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 Thu low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.1180 impulse base
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1229 and the 1.1244 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.1268 Thu high back in view
German IP 07:00 UTC and EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC land in the London session ahead of NFP
Range 1.1203–1.1273 after Wednesday's impulse; twin highs capping, lows stepping down.
The Democratic sweep gapped EUR/USD down at Wednesday's open (gap low 1.1180), then the Asia session drove a 90-pip rally to the 1.1273 week high. Thursday's Asia retest stalled at 1.1268 (thu high), and a London-open sell-off extended in NY after the 189K jobless claims print to the 1.1203 thu low. The NY bounce high at 1.1244 has since faded, leaving price below both EMAs, near the 61.8% retracement of the election impulse, with RSI(14) back under 50.
Support: 1.1203, 1.1180, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1203 (thu low) breaks the double top neckline and the 78.6% fib, exposing the 1.1180 gap low and then the 1.1153 weekly open
Recovery above 1.1244 (ny bounce hi) breaks the lower-highs line and puts 1.1268 thu high / 1.1273 week high back in play
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main risk for the range; Williams and Lane at 09:30 UTC and German IP at 07:00 UTC come first
20:02 UTC
Weekly uptrend, correcting from Wed high · RSI 48 · price 1.12242
Lower highs since Wed; weekly higher-low trendline intact.
Wednesday's election-led impulse ran from 1.1180 in the Asia session to a 1.1273 week high. Thursday printed a lower high at the 1.1268 thu high, and selling from London open into the NY session reached 1.1203 after the strong US jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks. That dip undercut the wed low at 1.1213 before buyers stepped back in, a false break that held the weekly higher-low trendline. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the Wed impulse at 1.1226, just under the ema20 (~1.1233) and EMA50, with RSI(14) back near 48 and the 1.1244 ny high capping the rebound so far.
Support: 1.12128, 1.12028, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1203 (thu low) breaks the weekly higher-low trendline near 1.1206 and the Wed impulse retracement; tue low 1.1175 is the next reference
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1244 ny high reopens the 1.1268 thu high and 1.1273 week high
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the dominant risk to this read; Williams and Lane both speak at 09:30 UTC earlier
German IP (07:00 UTC) and EZ Retail Sales (10:00 UTC) Friday are secondary EUR-side inputs
Election breakout from 1.1180 capped at 1.1273, lower high Thursday, range 1.1203–1.1273.
Wednesday's election-driven USD sell-off produced the week's impulse, lifting the pair from 1.1180 to the 1.1273 week high and out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range. Since then the pair has ranged, with Thursday's high at 1.1268 a lower high. Firm US claims and hawkish Fed remarks pulled price below EMA(20) near 1.1234 through Thursday's London and NY hours. The NY-session dip through the Wed low at 1.1213 to 1.1203 was reversed within the hour, and price now sits near the 50% fib of the election impulse with RSI(14) around 44 and EMA(50) flat near 1.1229.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1203 (thu low) breaks the post-election range and the 61.8% fib of the impulse
Recovery above ema20 at 1.1234 and Thursday's lower-highs line reopens 1.1268 (thu high) and the 1.1273 week high
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; German IP 07:00 UTC and EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC land earlier
Lower high at 1.1268 under week high, 1.1203–1.1273 range since Wednesday.
The week's dominant move was Wednesday's surge off the Tuesday low at 1.1175. It started in the Asia session and extended to a week high of 1.1273 in NY hours as the midterm result hit the USD. Thursday printed a lower high at 1.1268 and slid from London open to 1.1203, just through the 61.8% retracement of that rally, as low US claims and hawkish Fed talk supported the USD; NY hours then recovered to 1.1233. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 1.1235 and just above EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at 50 after dipping to about 41.
Support: 1.12028, 1.11748, 1.11534
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.1250, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1250 round number reopens the 1.1268 lower high and the 1.1273 week high
Failure to hold the Thu low at 1.1203 breaks the rising trendline from the Tue low and confirms a lower-low
Loss of the Tue low at 1.1175 puts the weekly open at 1.1153 in play and erases the week's gain
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1268 beneath the 1.1273 week high; 1.1203–1.1273 range.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's Asia session. The Democratic midterm sweep lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1180 break base to a 1.1273 week high. Thursday's retest stalled at 1.1268, the thu high, in a second rejection that leaves lower highs, and the pair sold off from London open into NY as low US jobless claims and hawkish Fed remarks revived the dollar. The NY dip made a false break below the 1.1213 wed low to a 1.1203 thu low before snapping back. That leaves price at the 50% fib of the election leg and just under EMA(20) near 1.1233 and EMA(50) near 1.1228, with RSI(14) rolled over to 40 from the high-60s.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1233, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 thu low breaks the post-election range floor and exposes the 1.1180 break base (78.6% of the election leg near 1.1200 first)
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 1.1233 and clearing the 1.1268 thu high / 1.1273 week high would invalidate the lower highs read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC precedes it
Nagel speech today 17:45 UTC, plus German IP (07:00 UTC) and EZ Retail Sales (10:00 UTC) on Friday, are secondary risk to the 1.1213 wed low
16:01 UTC
Pullback within weekly gain, momentum fading · RSI 34 · price 1.12123
Lower high at 1.1268 below the 1.1273 week high; price testing the 1.1213 neckline.
Wednesday's election-led USD sell-off lifted the pair from 1.1180 to a 1.1273 week high, well above the 1.1153 weekly open. Thursday's Asia-session push stalled at a 1.1268 day high, a lower high. The London-led fade after the German orders miss, extended in NY by firm US claims, has pushed price back below EMA(20) at 1.1234. The twin highs form a double top with the neckline at Wednesday's 1.1213 low, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's impulse, while the 1.1203 day low is the nearest test and RSI(14) has slipped to around 34.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1234, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1203 day low confirms a neckline break of the double top and exposes the 1.1175 tuesday low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1234 and the lower highs trendline neutralises the topping read, with the 1.1268 day high and 1.1273 week high above
Lagarde at 16:00 UTC and Nagel at 17:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main USD-side risk to the 1.1213–1.1273 range
15:01 UTC
Range after Monday's impulse, now pressing range floor · RSI 38 · price 1.12174
1.1212–1.1273 range since Wednesday's gap-up; lower high Thursday.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1212–1.1273 range since the post-midterm USD selloff lifted it in Wednesday's Asia session. Thursday's 1.1268 high (thu high) came in just under the 1.1273 week high, a double top shape. The London-session slide today came as the dollar recovered on firm US claims data and German factory orders missed. That move has put price back on the 1.1212 range low, which sits near the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday low-to-week high move. Price is below the ema20 at 1.1236, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.1212, 1.1200, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1236, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1212 range low completes the double top and exposes the 1.1200 round number, then the 1.1175 tuesday low
Recovery back above the ema20 at 1.1236 returns price to mid-range; the 1.1268 thu high and 1.1273 week high define the lower-high cap
ECB Lane (15:40 UTC) and Lagarde (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read at the range low
Friday's US NFP at 13:30 GMT is the next major test of the range
Lower high under week high, retracing to 50% of Tue-Wed impulse.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the midterm result and the Brent slump lifted the pair from the 1.1175 tue low to a 1.1273 week high. Thursday's Asia push stalled at a 1.1268 lower high. Price then slid from the London open on the German Factory Orders miss and a USD rebound on strong claims. It now sits at the 50% retracement of the Tue-Wed impulse, just above the 1.1216 today low and 1.1213 wed low, below EMA(20) at 1.1237 and back under EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 1.1216, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1213 wed low (61.8% fib) breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1175 tue low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1237 and a close through the 1.1268 lower high would put the 1.1273 week high back in play
ECB Lane 15:40 UTC and Lagarde 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the next major USD-side risk to the structure
13:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling, momentum rolling over · RSI 46 · price 1.12208
Lower high at 1.1268 below the 1.1273 week high; testing the 1.1213 swing low.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1180 rally base to a 1.1273 week high on Wednesday, driven by the oil slump and post-election dollar selling. Thursday's Asia push stalled at the 1.1268 Thu high, and London reversed it back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) as USD rebounded on firm US data. The lower high leaves a developing double top, with price sitting on Wednesday's 1.1213 swing low, near the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's rally, and RSI(14) back in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1206, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1238, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1213 swing low confirms the double top and exposes the 1.1206 Tue high, then the 1.1180 rally base.
Recovery above EMA(20) near 1.1238 neutralises the double top read. A break of the 1.1273 week high through the lower highs line resets the structure higher.
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 16:00 UTC could shift this read. Friday's NFP is the larger risk to the range.
Range 1.1213-1.1273 after Wednesday breakout, marginal lower high.
From the 1.1153 weekly open, the dominant leg came in Wednesday's Asia session as the post-midterm USD sell-off lifted price to the 1.1273 week high. Thursday's Asia push stalled at the 1.1268 thu high, a marginal lower high, and London has faded the move as the dollar rebounds. Price is now below EMA(20) near 1.1242 and sits on the 50% retracement of Wednesday's impulse, pressing the Thursday Asia low at 1.1224 with RSI(14) back under 50; the Wednesday NY low at 1.1213 marks the floor of the range since the breakout.
Support: 1.1224, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1213 wed low breaks the post-breakout range and confirms a lower-low, exposing the 1.1175 tue low
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.1242 and the lower highs line would reopen the 1.1268 thu high and the 1.1273 week high
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, plus US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the main event risk to the 1.1213-1.1273 range
11:01 UTC
Uptrend this week, pulling back from range top · RSI 48 · price 1.12322
Higher lows intact, lower high at 1.1268 below week high.
The Asia-session breakout on Wednesday came with the post-midterm USD sell-off. It cleared Monday's 1.1237 high and reached the week high at 1.1273 in London, then NY hours faded it to the wed low at 1.1213. Thursday's Asia rebound stalled at the thu high of 1.1268, a lower high, and selling from London open after soft German and French data has pushed price below ema20 into a retest of 1.1237 and the 1.1229 session low, near the 50% of the Wednesday impulse, with RSI(14) back to ~48 from overbought.
Support: 1.1229, 1.1213, 1.1180
Resistance: 1.1242, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC is the next catalyst; an H1 close above the thu high at 1.1268 and the week high at 1.1273 would break the lower-high sequence
An H1 close below the wed low at 1.1213, near the 61.8% of the Wednesday impulse, breaks the higher-low structure and exposes the wed base near 1.1180
Failure to reclaim ema20 near 1.1242 keeps the pullback from the range top intact
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below range top · RSI 54 · price 1.12454
Higher lows since Tuesday, lower high under 1.1273 week high.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range in Wednesday's Asia session as the USD sold off after the Democratic sweep. It printed the week high at 1.1273 into the NY open before NY hours retraced to the Wed NY low at 1.1213. Today's Asia push stalled at 1.1268 (thu high), a rejection just under the 1.1280 range top, and London's open faded on soft German and French data back to 1.1237, the 38.2% fib of Wednesday's impulse, leaving price on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 54 and Tuesday's higher lows intact.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1268, 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1280 range top clears the week high and breaks the month-old range
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 1.1237 and the higher-lows trendline exposes the Wed NY low at 1.1213
Break below the Tue low at 1.1175 would undo Wednesday's breakout structure
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the main USD risk for the week's range
09:01 UTC
Uptrend since Monday's open, stalling below week high · RSI 53 · price 1.12412
Post-breakout range 1.1213–1.1273, lower high Thursday.
EUR/USD rose from the 1.1153 weekly open, and Wednesday's Asia session breakout on the post-midterm USD selloff cleared the 1.1175 Tuesday low base, putting the pair on a 1.1273 week high during NY hours. Since then it has traded a 1.1213–1.1273 range: the NY pullback held the swing low near the 61.8% retracement, and Thursday's Asia-session push stalled at a 1.1268 lower high. Into the London open today, misses in German factory orders and French industrial output knocked price back under the H1 EMA(20) near 1.1246, toward the fib 38.2 at 1.1237, with RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 1.1237, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1268, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1246 would put the lower high at 1.1268 and the 1.1273 week high back in play.
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 1.1237 exposes the 1.1213 swing low. A break there confirms a lower-low below the week high and leaves the double-top risk active.
Loss of 1.1175, the Tuesday low, would unwind Wednesday's breakout.
Eurozone PPI at 10:00 UTC, Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could each shift this read. Friday's NFP is the larger catalyst for a break of the range.
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 66 · price 1.12648
Range breakout Wednesday; higher low at 1.1213, retesting 1.1273 high.
The week opened at 1.1153 and held a 1.1175–1.1237 range through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's Asia session broke it as the USD slid on the Democratic midterm sweep, and the move extended to a 1.1273 week high into the NY open. The NY-afternoon pullback found the 1.1213 swing low near the 61.8% retracement and EMA(50), and Thursday's Asia-session recovery has price back above EMA(20) at 1.1265, with RSI(14) near 66 just shy of the week high.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1280 range top clears the week high and the double-bottom neckline flagged in the macro digest
Repeated rejection at the 1.1273 week high would leave a flat double cap beneath the range top
A break of EMA(20) and the rising support line near 1.1240 shifts focus back to the 1.1213 swing low
Failure to hold 1.1213 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.1175 range floor back in play
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.12608
Higher lows since Tuesday; testing the 1.1273-1.1280 range top.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. That impulse lifted price out of the Monday-Tuesday 1.1175-1.1237 range toward a 1.1273 week high at the London-NY transition. Wednesday's NY pullback to the 1.1213 wed low held near the 61.8% of that impulse, and Thursday's Asian thu low at 1.1224 extended the higher-low sequence. Price is back above the ema20 near 1.1245 and pressing the week high, with RSI(14) near 61, below Wednesday's peak readings, and ranges compressing to about 13 pips.
Support: 1.1245, 1.1224, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1280 range top would clear the week high and break the month-old range ceiling
Repeated rejection at the 1.1273 week high with RSI failing to exceed Wednesday's peak would leave a lower-momentum retest at the range top
A move back below the ema20 at 1.1245 and the thu low at 1.1224 would test the higher-lows trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1213 wed low breaks the higher-low sequence and the Wednesday impulse retest
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 GMT and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Friday's NFP next
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating just below week high · RSI 62 · price 1.12631
Post-breakout higher low at 1.1213; price retesting the week high.
Wednesday's Asia-session breakout on the Democratic sweep and broad USD selling took EUR/USD through Monday's 1.1237 prior high to a 1.1273 week high. A NY-session pullback then stalled at the 1.1213 swing low, near the 61.8% retracement of the leg, before a steady Asia rebuild back above EMA(20) near 1.1247. RSI(14) is around 62. The 1.1268 Asia high forms a marginal lower high under the week high.
Support: 1.1247, 1.1237, 1.1213
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1273 week high breaks the lower-high cap and brings the 1.1300 round number into view
A slip back below EMA(20) and the 1.1237 prior high would put the breakout retest back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1213 swing low returns price to the pre-breakout range
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC plus US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 59 · price 1.12655
Higher lows since Tuesday, pressing 1.1273 high.
Wednesday's Asia-session breakout from Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1206 range on the post-midterm USD selloff ran to a 1.1273 week high. Resilient ADP data then pulled the NY session back to a 1.1213 swing low, close to the 61.8% retracement of the midterm leg. The Asia session has since rebuilt to 1.1265, above EMA(20) near 1.1242 and along the higher lows line, with RSI(14) near 59 and price just under the week high.
Support: 1.1242, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1273 week high clears the 1.1270–1.1280 neckline zone and opens the 1.1300 round number
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC, plus US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A second stall below 1.1273 followed by loss of EMA(20) near 1.1242 points to a range forming under the week high
Break of the 1.1213 swing low and the higher lows line undercuts the breakout and puts Tuesday's 1.1175 low back in view
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, pullback held at 61.8% · RSI 54 · price 1.12539
Range breakout Wed, higher low at 1.1213, pressing back toward week high.
EUR/USD broke out of Tuesday's 1.1175-1.1206 range in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar, then printed a week high at 1.1273 in London. Resilient ADP and ISM data drove a NY-session pullback to 1.1213, close to the 61.8% retracement of the move off the Tue low, and that Wed NY low held. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.1238 in today's Asia session and is pressing the 1.1258 Asia high, with RSI(14) back in the low-50s; the week high sits inside the 1.1250-1.1275 neckline zone.
Support: 1.1238, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1258, 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1273 week high clears the neckline zone and opens the path to the 1.1300 round number
A repeated stall at the 1.1258 Asia high would leave a lower high beneath 1.1273
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.1213 Wed NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the Tue low at 1.1175
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC: firm US data capped Wednesday's rally
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher low in place · RSI 56 · price 1.12545
Higher low at 1.1213, pressing back toward 1.1265–1.1273 highs.
EUR/USD cleared Monday's 1.1237 high during Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the USD. The midterm rally extended to a 1.1273 week high at the NY open, then resilient US data drove a 60-pip fade into a 1.1213 swing low near the 61.8% retracement. That swing low held as a higher low. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) at 1.1237 and is pressing back toward the 1.1265 prior high in Asia, with RSI(14) recovering into the mid-50s and the trendline of higher lows from the 1.1180 rally base intact beneath.
Support: 1.12367, 1.12128, 1.11799
Resistance: 1.12647, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1273 week high clears the 1.1250–1.1275 neckline zone flagged in the digest
Repeated rejection at the 1.1265 prior high leaves a lower-high risk under the week high
Loss of the 1.1213 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 1.1180 rally base back in focus
Lagarde speeches at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC is the next test of the USD's resilient-data floor
EURUSD broke Tuesday's 1.1175–1.1237 range in Wednesday's Asia session as broad USD selling followed the Democrats' midterm sweep, then extended to a week high of 1.1273 into the NY open. The NY afternoon fade found demand at the wed low of 1.1213, near the 61.8% retracement of the move. Since then the pair has printed higher lows and reclaimed EMA(20) near 1.1236, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.1236, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1273, 1.1300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1273 week high opens the 1.1300 round number
Loss of the higher lows line and the 1.1213 wed low reopens the tue low near 1.1175
H1 closes back below ema20 near 1.1236 would return price to the 1.1213–1.1273 consolidation
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is the next USD-side risk
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating after breakout · RSI 56 · price 1.12366
Mon–Tue range broken higher; old range top being retested.
EUR/USD broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 1.1175–1.1239 range during Wednesday's Asia session on the post-midterm USD selloff. It ran to a week high of 1.1273 into the NY open before firm ADP and ISM employment data pulled it back to a 1.1213 pullback low, right on the 61.8% retracement of the tuesday low-to-week high leg. Price has since rebuilt above EMA(20) at 1.1231 and is retesting the old range top, with RSI(14) back near 56 after holding around 50 through the dip.
Support: 1.1231, 1.1213, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1239, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1213 pullback low (61.8% fib) puts price back inside the old range and exposes the 1.1175 tuesday low
Rejection at the 1.1239 range top brings the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday's low into play near 1.1224
A push through the 1.1273 week high extends the breakout toward the 1.1275–1.1280 four-week top cluster
Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with NFP on Friday
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 54 · price 1.12315
Post-breakout higher lows, retracing midterm leg.
After ranging 1.1175–1.1206 through Tuesday, the pair broke above the 1.1237 monday high in Wednesday's Asia session as the midterm result drove broad USD selling, extending to a 1.1273 week high early in NY before resilient US data pulled it back to a 1.1213 ny low. That low sits just below the 61.8% retracement of the midterm leg and above the higher lows line from Tuesday. Price is now coiling in a narrow late-session range at EMA(20) around 1.1231, between the fib 50% at 1.1226 and the monday high, with RSI(14) back near mid-range.
Support: 1.1226, 1.1213, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1237 monday high reopens the 1.1273 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1213 ny low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 1.1200 round number
Lagarde at 12:00 and 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is a risk for the USD side of the move