Price flushed early in the window to a 1.1499 range low, then built a rounded base through 1.153-1.157 before recovering above the 1.16 handle to a 10-day high at 1.1622, helped by the EUR bid on US-Iran de-escalation and lower oil. The last few bars stalled at that high and pulled back to 1.1584, retesting prior range resistance from above. ATR(14) sits moderate around 32 pips with EMA20 and EMA50 now below price.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1499
Resistance: 1.1622, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
A close above 1.1622 opens the path to the 1.1650 cap
Failure to hold 1.1555 reopens the 1.1499 range low
17:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, near range mid · RSI 56 · price 1.15977
Higher lows since 1.1499 base, range-bound.
Price cratered from ~1.1644 to a 1.1499 base on the US-Iran ceasefire and tumbling oil, then carved a rounded recovery with higher lows. A weekend gap higher and a push back through 1.16 has reclaimed the EMAs, with the pair now mid-range between the 1.1555 range low and the 1.1620 recent high. SocGen's defined 1.1555-1.1700 band frames price ahead of Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1700
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward the 1.1700 range top
Failure to hold 1.1555 reopens the 1.1500 swing low
FOMC Wednesday is the dominant catalyst that could reset this read
Rebound off 1.1500 within broad 1.1555-1.1700 range.
Price was knocked sharply lower to 1.1500 as the US-Iran ceasefire crushed oil and drained risk premium, but has since carved out a rounded recovery back to the 1.16 handle. Structure now sits inside a defined 1.1555-1.1700 range, with EMA20 and EMA50 reclaimed as the rebound matures and ATR cools from the drop-driven spike. The 1.1621 area is capping the latest push, retracing roughly two-thirds of the impulse down.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1621, 1.1670, 1.1700
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1621 opens the path to 1.1670/1.1700 range top
Failure to hold 1.1555 reopens the 1.1500 swing low
Wednesday's FOMC decision is the dominant catalyst and can break the range either way
Price crashed roughly 180 pips into the 1.1500 two-month low as hot US CPI firmed the dollar, then carved a rounded base and has clawed back above 1.1600 as the Iran de-escalation softens USD. The recovery is now pressing the prior-range body around 1.1620, with the 1.1650 cap flagged repeatedly as the ceiling, and ATR has compressed from the selloff spike. Both EMAs sit below price after the rebound.
Support: 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed could materially shift this read on the USD side
H4 close above 1.1650 opens the path back toward fresh highs
Failure to hold 1.1580 reopens the 1.1500 base
13:01 UTC
Corrective recovery off the lows · RSI 61 · price 1.1610
Based after sharp drop, higher lows building.
EUR/USD collapsed from 1.1644 to a 1.1499 low on the risk-driven USD swings, then based around the 1.1500 psych level in a double-bottom shape before a weekend gap-up lifted price back above 1.1600. The recovery has retraced much of the impulse drop and now sits under the 1.1620 recent high, with the 1.1650 cap the next overhead reference. ATR has settled after the spike, leaving the pair pressing higher lows into Wednesday's Fed decision.
Support: 1.1568, 1.1517, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1650 cap extends the recovery toward fresh highs
Failure to hold the 1.1568 range floor reopens the 1.1500 psych area
FOMC Wed is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
EUR/USD sold off sharply to a two-month low at 1.1500 before basing and recovering toward the broken 1.1580-1.1590 floor, helped by US-Iran-driven USD softness. Price has now reclaimed 1.1580 and is testing overhead supply at 1.1620; ATR is moderate after the post-drop expansion. Rising lows off 1.1500 keep the recovery intact above the prior floor.
Support: 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path toward 1.1650
Loss of 1.1580 reopens the 1.1500 base
FOMC Wed Jun 17 (Warsh debut) is the dominant catalyst and could reshape this read
EUR/USD twice held the 1.1500 base before recovering, and this latest leg has reclaimed the 1.1580-1.1590 prior range floor that capped earlier bounces. The push back above EMA20 and EMA50 follows the broader USD haven-unwind, with hawkish-ECB repricing underpinning the bid. ATR(14) remains elevated after the sharp 1.16-to-1.15 drop, so the recovery is happening in a wide-range regime rather than quiet compression.
Support: 1.1580, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1620, 1.1650
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.1620 opens the path back toward the 1.1650 prior high
Loss of the 1.1580 floor on a close would re-expose the 1.1500 base
FOMC Wed (Warsh debut) dot-plot shift is the dominant catalyst and could override this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, recovery off the 1.1500 base · RSI 61 · price 1.16045
Double bottom at 1.1500, higher lows since.
A sharp sell-off mid-window broke the 1.1590 range floor and bottomed near the 1.1500 two-month low, where a double bottom has formed. Higher lows have since built and price has reclaimed 1.1600, now pressing the 61.8% fib of the down-swing near 1.1614. ECB's hawkish hike is underpinning EUR, but Wednesday's FOMC under Warsh is the dominant swing risk.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1614, 1.1686
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1614 fib 61.8 opens the path back to the 1.1686 swing high
Failure to hold the reclaimed 1.1590 range floor reopens the 1.1500 2-mo low
FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend stalling, recovery off the base · RSI 61 · price 1.16056
Double bottom near 1.1500, upside break attempt.
Price spent early June rolling over from 1.1685 into a base around the 1.1500 psych level, carving a double bottom at 1.1503. The latest bar broke up through the prior 1.1580-1.1590 range floor and tagged 1.1617 before easing back, with ATR(14) still elevated after the recent expansion. Recovery follows in-line EZ CPI and a hawkish ECB hold, but the move sits directly ahead of the Wed FOMC.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1503, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1617, 1.1645
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.1590 range floor keeps the recovery intact; loss of it returns price to the 1.1500 base
A close back under 1.1503 double bottom reopens downside toward the 1.1500 psych level
FOMC Wed Jun 17 (Warsh debut, dot plot) is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
01:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, breaking range top · RSI 61 · price 1.16056
Post-drop range, breakout attempt.
After the early-month sharp drop to 1.1520, EURUSD consolidated in a 1.1500-1.1590 band for two weeks. The latest bar pushed through the 1.1590 range top to a 1.1617 high, closing 1.1606 — a range break supported by the hawkish ECB hike narrative. ATR remains compressed at ~33 pips, so follow-through above 1.1590 is the structural test.
Support: 1.1590, 1.1520, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1617, 1.1645
What it said to watch
Hold above 1.1590 confirms the range break; a close back below marks a false break
FOMC Jun 17 dot plot is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
Failure to reclaim 1.1645 keeps the broader range cap intact