Cable carved a double bottom near 1.3140 in mid-June and has ground higher on rising lows, now pressing the 1.3275 two-week high; BoE Bailey's 'rate cuts off the table' comment keeps GBP's carry premium intact while USD stays firm into US jobs data. Price has reclaimed the EMA20 and EMA50 after the June slide from 1.348, and this session's push through 1.3275 marks a tentative break of the descending structure. ATR is mid-range, consistent with a measured recovery rather than a violent trend leg.
Support: 1.3180, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3355
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3275 confirms the break, opening the path toward the 1.3355 cap
Failure to hold 1.3180 reopens the 1.3140 double bottom
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the key external catalyst that could shift this read
GBPUSD has carved a series of higher lows off the 1.3140 swing low, and the latest bar pushed through the 1.3275 range top that had capped price for two weeks. The recovery leans on softer US second-tier data (ADP and ISM misses) tempering the firmer dollar. A retest of 1.3275 would gauge whether the breakout holds, with 1.3355 the next area to watch above.
Support: 1.3275, 1.3180, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3355
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back below 1.3275 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of 1.3180 reopens the 1.3140 swing low
US NFP Thu Jul 2 12:30 UTC is the dominant swing factor for this read
13:01 UTC
Downtrend stabilising, base building · RSI 54 · price 1.32431
Recovery off 1.3140 low, higher lows forming.
Cable sold off from the early-window 1.346 area to a 1.3140 cycle low before carving a rounded base, and higher lows since have carried price back toward the 1.3275 range top. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50 with price holding above both, consistent with the recovery, though the move is a retracement of the larger decline rather than a fresh trend. Two-way risk into Bailey and firm USD on hawkish-Fed repricing keeps 1.3275 capping and 1.3220 the near-term pivot.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3180, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3355
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3275 range top opens the path to 1.3355
Failure to hold 1.3220 range base exposes 1.3180 swing low then 1.3140 cycle low
Bailey and US ISM today could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off lows · RSI 55 · price 1.3245
Recovery into range after double bottom.
Sterling fell from the 1.3446 early-month high to a 1.3140 double bottom, then ground higher into a 1.3200-1.3270 range. The broader H4 impulse is still lower but a sequence of higher lows has built since late June, flattening the EMAs which now sit just below price. Bailey speech at 13:00 UTC is the near-term catalyst framing the range edges.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3330
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3270 range top opens the path back toward 1.3330
Failure to hold 1.3200 psych exposes the 1.3140 double bottom
BoE Bailey speech 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable has carved lower highs since the mid-June push to 1.346, with the impulse leg down bottoming at the 1.3140 swing low before demand stepped in. Price is now consolidating in the low 1.32s, capped so far under the 1.3270 range top, with ATR(14) compressing near 25 pips. USD firmness on the hawkish-Fed regime continues to lid rebounds despite carry-supported GBP defending 1.3190.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3276 range top challenges the lower-high sequence and opens 1.3300 psych
Failure to hold 1.3190 demand reopens the 1.3140 swing low
US ADP/ISM today and NFP later this week are the dominant cable driver via USD
The early-month downtrend from 1.3483 bottomed at 1.3140 and price has since carved higher lows, now probing the 1.3270 cap flagged repeatedly by the market. ATR(14) sits steady near 45 pips as the recovery grinds within a 1.3140-1.3276 band. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time in weeks, but the 1.3270 area continues to absorb the push.
Support: 1.3212, 1.3200, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3270 opens the path to 1.3300 key resistance
Failure to hold 1.3212 threatens the higher-low sequence
BoE Bailey (13:30 GMT) and US NFP later this week could materially shift this read