Lower highs intact, price compressing above range low.
Price rolled over from the 1.3643 month high into a clear lower-high sequence, with the 1.3488 swing high now defining the most recent cap. The last two weeks have compressed into a tight 1.3406–1.3488 range above the 1.3367 base, ATR has bled lower, and RSI is sitting flat near 50. Structure is consistent with a falling wedge resolution attempt, with the EMA50 around 1.3529 still capping rallies.
Support: 1.3406, 1.3367, 1.3316
Resistance: 1.3488, 1.3529, 1.3643
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3488 swing high opens path back to the ema50 near 1.3529
Loss of 1.3406 swing low re-engages 1.3367 range low and the 1.3316 May low
Sustained reclaim of the ema50 would invalidate the lower-high read
Lower-highs since 1.3643, holding above 1.3316 swing low.
Cable has been carving a descending sequence of lower-highs from the 1.3643 swing peak, with price now compressing between 1.3432 swing low and 1.3488 swing high. EMA20 sits just above price while EMA50 caps from above near 1.3470, leaving the H4 in a balance state after the early-May sell-off into the 1.3316 May low. ATR(14) around 60 pips reflects narrowing range — typical pre-breakout compression.
Support: 1.3432, 1.3377, 1.3316
Resistance: 1.3488, 1.3550, 1.3643
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3488 swing high reopens 1.3550 prior pivot
Loss of 1.3432 swing low exposes 1.3377 range low and the 1.3316 May low
Middle East ceasefire headlines could materially shift risk tone
Lower highs since 1.3643 peak, basing above 1.3316.
GBPUSD has been carving a sequence of lower highs since the 1.3643 swing top in mid-window, with the deepest leg bottoming at the 1.3316 May low before mean-reverting back to 1.3460. Price is now coiling between the 1.3406 swing low and the 1.3488 swing high, with EMA20 reclaimed but EMA50 still capping overhead. With no UK data this week, the pair sits hostage to US payrolls, leaving the H4 range read intact for now.
Support: 1.3406, 1.3367, 1.3316
Resistance: 1.3488, 1.3529, 1.3643
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3529 prior high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.3406 swing low reopens the path toward 1.3316 May low
US payrolls later this week likely to break the current range compression