Lower high at 1.3249 under the 1.3256 nfp high; rising support from 1.3224 just broken.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, unemployment 4.2%) broke GBPUSD out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. The leg topped at the 1.3256 nfp high, and the pullback held the 1.3224 post-nfp low between the 50% and 61.8% fib. A late NY push stalled at 1.3249 for a lower high. Price has since slipped under rising support into the Friday close, sitting on the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.32329, 1.32235
Resistance: 1.32489, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3233 swing low exposes the 1.3224 post-nfp low and the 50% fib of the nfp leg
Recovery above the 1.3249 late ny high reopens the 1.3256 nfp high
Thin liquidity into the weekly close; Monday ISM Services (14:00 UTC) is the next USD catalyst that could shift this read
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the nfp high · RSI 60 · price 1.32428
Higher lows since the NFP spike; late-NY consolidation under the late high.
The weak US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) lifted GBPUSD out of the Asian range and through the 1.3221 london high, setting the nfp high at 1.3256. The 16:30 UTC swing low at 1.3224 held near the 50% retracement of the nfp leg, and price has since stalled below the 1.3249 late high, flat at the micro low into the post-NY close.
Support: 1.32412, 1.32235, 1.32213
Resistance: 1.32489, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3241 micro low points to a deeper pullback toward the NY higher lows trendline
A break below the 1.3224 swing low and the 1.3221 london high ends the post-NFP higher-low chain
A close above the 1.3249 late high reopens the 1.3256 nfp high
Monday's US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) is the next catalyst that could shift this read; Friday-close liquidity is thin
Higher lows off 1.3224, capped below 1.3256 NFP high.
The 29K NFP miss broke cable out of the London range from a 1.3196 pre-release low to the 1.3256 NFP high. The pullback held at the 1.3224 swing low, just above the London high at 1.3221 and near the 50% retrace of the post-NFP rally fib, and late NY has stacked higher lows along a rising trendline into a 1.3249 late-NY high. Into the Friday close RSI(14) sits near 64, price is just under the 1.3250 round number, and ATR is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.32329, 1.32235, 1.32213
Resistance: 1.32489, 1.3250, 1.32557
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3256 NFP high extends the post-NFP rally fib structure; repeated stalls at the 1.3249 late-NY high and the 1.3250 round number keep it capped
A break of the late-NY trendline and the 1.3233 higher low ends the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.3224 swing low exposes the London high at 1.3221 and the 61.8% retrace near 1.3219
Thin liquidity into the weekly close and Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC) can reset this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding back toward post-NFP high · RSI 63 · price 1.32464
NFP breakout above London high, 50% fib pullback, higher lows into late NY.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a breakout from the 1.3196 pre-NFP low through the London high at 1.3221 to the 1.3256 NFP high. The pullback held at 1.3224, the pullback low, near the 50% fib, and price has since built higher lows along rising support into the post-NY Friday close. Price is at 1.3246, just under the 1.3249 late NY cap. RSI is 63 and ATR is about 7.6 pips.
Support: 1.32425, 1.32235, 1.31958
Resistance: 1.32489, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3256 NFP high extends the higher-high sequence; the late NY cap at 1.3249 is the first test
Break of rising support and the 1.3242 minor low exposes the 1.3224 pullback low
Loss of the pullback low reopens the full NFP leg back toward the 1.3196 pre-nfp low
Thin Friday close and weekend gap risk; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could reprice the NFP move
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher into late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.32477
Post-NFP higher low at 1.32235, pressing the 1.32489 minor high.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) broke GBP/USD out of the London range from 1.3196 to a 1.32557 session high. The pullback held a higher low at 1.32235, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the NFP rally. Late NY has ground back to test the 1.32489 minor high, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above the 1.32416 spike high.
Support: 1.32416, 1.32235, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.32489, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.32557 session high extends the post-NFP higher-high sequence
Break of the higher low trendline and the 1.32416 spike high shifts focus back to 1.32235
Loss of the 1.32235 higher low exposes the 1.32108 post-nfp low and negates the uptrend read
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity; next USD test is ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7)
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding back toward session high · RSI 64 · price 1.32477
Post-NFP breakout above London range; higher-low chain in late NY.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) broke GBPUSD out of the London range above 1.3221 and printed the 1.3256 nfp high. The pullback held at the 1.3224 pullback low, just past the 50% fib of the NFP leg. Late NY has stacked higher lows along trendline support, the latest at 1.3241, and price is pressing back toward the nfp high into the weekly close with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.3241, 1.3224, 1.3211
Resistance: 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3256 nfp high extends the post-NFP breakout
Loss of trendline support and the 1.3241 higher low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain
Failure at the 1.3224 pullback low exposes the 1.3211 nfp dip low and the 61.8% fib
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) is the next USD test
19:16 UTC
Uptrend since NFP, grinding higher late NY · RSI 63 · price 1.32433
Higher lows off 1.3224 pullback low, pressing toward 1.3250 psych.
The 29K NFP miss at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 1.3181–1.3212 Asian range to a 1.3256 session high. The pullback held the 1.3224 pullback low four times, near the 50% retrace of the impulse. Late NY now prints higher lows along a rising trendline into the 1.3250 psych level, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.32235, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32557
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3256 session high extends the post-NFP leg; rejection at 1.3250 psych keeps it range-bound below the high
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3224 pullback low undercuts the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3211 NFP low
Thin Friday late-NY liquidity into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC broke GBPUSD out of the Asian range from the 1.3196 pre-nfp low, printing a 1.3256 session high before a pullback low at 1.3224 held near the 50–61.8% retrace. Late NY session price is grinding back up along rising support, capped at the 1.3240 minor high, with bars narrowing into the Friday close.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3240 minor high reopens the 1.3256 session high
Break of the 1.3224 pullback low and rising support exposes the 1.3211 nfp low
Loss of the 1.3196 pre-nfp low would erase the payrolls move
Thin late-Friday liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst
Post-NFP breakout above the London range, higher low at 1.3224, tight late-NY consolidation.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) lifted price from the 1.3196 pre-release low through the London range top at 1.3221 to the 1.3256 NFP high. The pullback held the 1.3224 pullback low near the 50% fib, and late in the NY session price is coiling between 1.3233 and the 1.3240 late-NY high along rising lows, with RSI(14) neutral and EMA20 underneath.
Support: 1.32235, 1.32108, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32404, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3240 late-NY high reopens the 1.3256 NFP high
Break of the rising lows and the 1.3224 pullback low exposes the 1.3211 post-NFP low
Loss of the 1.3200 round number would unwind the NFP breakout
Weekend gap risk ahead of Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could shift this read
18:31 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, consolidating late NY · RSI 53 · price 1.32354
Impulse from 1.3196 to 1.3256, retrace held above London high, higher lows since.
The soft US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) broke GBPUSD out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range to an NFP high at 1.32557. The pullback found a swing low at 1.32235, just above the old London high and near the 50–61.8% fib. Price is now edging higher on a rising intraday line after London close, capped so far by a lower high at 1.32404.
Support: 1.32235, 1.32213
Resistance: 1.32404, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.32404 lower high reopens the 1.32557 NFP high
Loss of the 1.32235 swing low and the 1.3221 london high puts the breakout retest in doubt
Break of the rising intraday line signals the late-NY grind is fading
Friday close: weekend geopolitics and oil risk could gap the open; US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next USD test
Higher low at 1.3224, compressing below 1.3240 in late NY.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC broke GBPUSD out of its 1.3196–1.3221 London range, with price running to a 1.3256 NY high. Demand held a triple low at 1.3224, just below the 50% retracement of the NFP leg on the fib. Since London close, price has compressed under the 1.3240 minor high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3211, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3224 triple low exposes the 1.3211 nfp pullback low and the 1.3200 round number.
A close above the 1.3240 minor high brings the 1.3256 NY high back into play.
A break below the 61.8% of the NFP leg fib (~1.3219) would undo most of the payrolls move.
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; the next USD catalyst is ISM Services on Mon at 14:00 UTC.
Higher low at 1.3224 after 1.3256 high; rising lows into late NY.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) lifted GBP/USD out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range to a session high at 1.3256. Demand stepped in at the 1.3224 pullback low, near the 50% fib of the NFP leg, and rising lows have since carried price back to the 1.3240 recent high late in NY with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3211
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3256 session high extends the NFP leg toward 1.3300 and the 1.3311 cited resistance
Break below the 1.3224 pullback low and rebound line exposes the 1.3211 nfp dip and the 61.8% fib near 1.3219
Friday close with thin late-NY liquidity: weekend gap risk at Monday's open
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild Fed hike odds and retrace the NFP move
NFP range break from 1.3196–1.3221, 1.3256 high, higher low at 1.3224.
The 29K payrolls miss broke the London range at 1.3196–1.3221 and carried price to an NFP high at 1.3256. The pullback found demand three times at the 1.3224 swing low, near the 50–61.8% fib of the NFP leg, and above the NFP dip at 1.3211. Late in the NY session, price is pressing through the 1.3235 prior cap that held the afternoon bounces.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3224, 1.3211
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3235 prior cap keeps the higher-low sequence intact; a close back below it returns price to the 1.3224–1.3235 band
A close above the 1.3256 NFP high extends the post-NFP leg toward the 1.3300 round number
Failure at the 1.3224 swing low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3211 NFP dip
Friday close into thin liquidity; Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could reprice USD and shift this read
Consolidating 1.3224–1.3237 after pullback from NY high; London high being retested.
The soft US payrolls print (29K vs 90K, unemployment 4.2%) flipped the pre-release dip to 1.3196 into a break of the London high at 1.3221, running to a 1.3256 NY high. The pullback found a floor at the 1.3224 post-NFP low five times, near the 50–61.8% fib, and price is now compressing late in the NY session beneath a 1.3237 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3237, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3224 post-NFP low and the 1.3221 London high would fail the breakout retest and expose the 1.3200 round number
M15 close above the 1.3237 lower high reopens the 1.3256 NY high
Friday close into thin liquidity; weekend headlines and Monday's US ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could shift this read
Breakout from Asian/London range, late-NY consolidation 1.3224–1.3256 with lower highs.
The US payrolls miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC broke GBP/USD out of the 1.3181–1.3221 Asian/London range, and the NFP leg peaked at the 1.3256 session high. Late NY has settled into consolidation above the 1.3224 post-NFP low, tested three times, with lower highs capping near 1.3236 and price sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the NFP leg; RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3224 post-NFP low opens a deeper retrace of the NFP leg toward the 1.3211 NFP pullback and the 1.3196 pre-NFP low
M15 close above the 1.3236 lower highs puts the 1.3256 session high back in play
Late Friday NY liquidity thins into the weekly close; weekend geopolitics and oil above $100 are gap risk for the Asia open
Higher low above Asian high, tight 1.3224–1.3235 box.
The US payrolls miss lifted GBPUSD from the 1.3196 pre-NFP low through the 1.3219 Asian high to a 1.3256 session high, then pulled back to the 50% retracement of the NFP leg. Since London close it has held a pullback low at 1.3224 four times under an intraday cap at 1.3235, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) easing to about 10 pips.
Support: 1.32237, 1.32189, 1.31958
Resistance: 1.32353, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3224 pullback low exposes the 1.3219 Asian high (near the 61.8% of the NFP leg), then the 1.3196 pre-NFP low
Close above the 1.3235 intraday cap reopens the 1.3256 session high
Thin late-NY Friday trade into the weekend; Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst that could shift this read
16:31 UTC
Post-NFP spike higher, now fading into consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.32268
Broke pre-NFP 1.3196–1.3221 range, capped at 1.3256, basing at 1.3224 with lower highs at 1.3235.
The 29K NFP miss broke the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. The rally ran into rejection at the 1.3256 NFP high and faded to the 50% retracement of the NFP leg near 1.3226. After London close the post-NFP low at 1.3224 has held three times under lower highs at 1.3235, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3221, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3224 post-NFP low and 1.3221 London high puts the breakout into retest, with 1.3196 London low next
Close above 1.3235 lower highs reopens the 1.3256 NFP high
Friday late NY session into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next USD catalyst
16:16 UTC
Post-NFP up-leg, now pulling back · RSI 51 · price 1.32305
London range broken higher, higher low at 1.3224.
The 29K NFP miss lifted cable from the pre-NFP low at 1.3196 through the London high at 1.3221 to an NY session high of 1.3256. The pullback after London close held a swing low at 1.3224, between the 50% and 61.8% of the NFP leg, and price is now flat near 1.3230 on the EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral around 51.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3221, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3224 swing low and the 1.3221 london high puts the 61.8% of the NFP leg and the 1.3196 pre-nfp low back in play
Close above the 1.3235 minor high reopens the 1.3256 nfp high
No scheduled data in the next 8h; thin late-Friday NY trade can produce erratic moves around these levels
16:01 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 1.32297
Breakout above London range, retesting with a higher low.
The weak US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-NFP high at 1.3221 and carried price to a 1.3256 session high. Late NY has retraced about half of that leg into a 1.3224 pullback low, a higher low above the 1.3211 nfp low. Price is sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) back near 54.
Support: 1.32237, 1.32213, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3221 pre-NFP high puts price back inside the old range and voids the breakout read
Loss of the 1.3211 nfp low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3196 pre-NFP low
A close above the 1.3235 lower high reopens the 1.3256 session high
Late Friday NY hours with liquidity thinning into the weekend; ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC) is the next USD driver that could reshape this read
15:46 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, retracing from session high · RSI 50 · price 1.32244
Broke 1.3196–1.3221 range on NFP; lower highs since 1.3256 peak, retesting range top.
The weak NFP (29K vs 90K, wages soft) lifted cable out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range to a 1.3256 session high. NY has since given back about half the move on three straight lower closes. Price is now near the 50–61.8% fib, retesting the broken london high at 1.3221, with RSI(14) back at 50 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3211 nfp pullback low breaks the 61.8% fib and puts the 1.3196 pre-nfp low back in play
Holding the london high at 1.3221 keeps the breakout retest intact; a reclaim of the 1.3235 minor high reopens the 1.3256 session high
Late-Friday NY thinning with no further scheduled data; US ISM Services on Monday is the next catalyst
15:31 UTC
Post-NFP uptrend, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 1.32312
London range break, retesting london high.
The US NFP miss (29K vs 90K f/c, soft wages) broke GBPUSD out of the London range, running from the 1.3196 pre-NFP low to a 1.3256 NY high. Late NY has retraced to the 50% fib of the NFP leg, retesting the london high near 1.3221 with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3242, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3221 london high puts price back inside the London range and exposes the 1.3211 nfp low
Loss of the 1.3196 pre-nfp low fully unwinds the NFP leg
Recovery through the 1.3242 nfp spike high and then the 1.3256 ny high restores the higher-high chain
Friday late-NY liquidity thins; ISM Services on Mon 14:00 GMT is the next scheduled USD risk
15:17 UTC
Post-NFP impulse higher, now pulling back · RSI 54 · price 1.32319
Broke out of the London range, printed a session high at 1.3256, then lost the 1.3234 higher low.
The 29K NFP miss and soft wages pushed GBPUSD out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. It printed a 1.3256 session high before a rejection pulled it back to the 38.2% fib near 1.3233, losing the 1.3234 micro higher low. RSI(14) has cooled to 54 and price is holding just above EMA20 in late NY hours.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3242, 1.3256
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3221 swing low (the old London range top) puts the 1.3211 nfp pullback low and the 1.3196 nfp low back in play
An M15 close back above the 1.3242 nfp spike high reopens the 1.3256 session high
Friday afternoon NY session into the weekend close, so thinner liquidity can exaggerate moves around these levels
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending in NY session · RSI 66 · price 1.32468
Post-NFP breakout above London high, higher lows intact.
The soft NFP (29K vs 90K, wages miss) broke cable out of the 1.3196–1.3221 range, and the post-release dip held the 1.3211 nfp dip low. NY then pushed through the 1.3242 nfp high to a 1.3256 session high, with RSI(14) near 66. Price is holding just under 1.3250, above the 38.2% of the NFP leg fib, with the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 1.32416, 1.32213, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.32557, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3242 nfp high puts the NY extension in question and exposes the 1.3221 london high
Loss of the 1.3211 nfp dip low breaks the higher-low trendline and the post-NFP structure
Acceptance above the 1.3256 session high opens the 1.3300 psych area
Late Friday NY liquidity thins; ISM Services Mon 14:00 GMT is the next USD risk
Breakout above Asian and London ranges, higher lows since NFP.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) broke cable out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. The initial nfp spike to 1.3242 retraced to the 1.3211 post-NFP low, then the NY session pushed through the 1.3250 digest resistance to a session high of 1.3256. Price is holding just under that high mid-NY with RSI(14) near 70, and the higher-low chain at the 1.3234 swing low remains intact above the rising NFP rally line.
Support: 1.32416, 1.32341, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.32557, 1.3300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3256 session high opens the path to the 1.3300 round number
A close back below the 1.3242 nfp spike high turns the move into a retest of the breakout zone
Failure to hold the 1.3234 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib, then the 1.3211 post-NFP low
A break of the NFP rally line would signal the post-NFP impulse is losing structure
Liquidity thins into the Friday close after NY. The next USD catalyst is ISM Services on Monday at 14:00 GMT
Higher lows since Asian low 1.3181; London range 1.3196–1.3221 broken higher.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) broke cable out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. The pullback held the 1.3211 post-NFP low, and NY session has since cleared the 1.3242 nfp spike to a session high at 1.3249, just under the 1.3250 round number. RSI(14) near 68 shows the move firm but not stretched, with price on the rising support from the Asian low.
Support: 1.32416, 1.32213, 1.32108
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3250 round number opens the 1.3300 prior high area
Slip back below the 1.3242 nfp spike returns price to the post-NFP chop
Loss of the 1.3221 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of rising support from the Asian low weakens the higher-low chain
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity; next catalyst is Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7)
14:16 UTC
Uptrend after NFP breakout, early NY · RSI 64 · price 1.3241
Broke London range on NFP, higher low at 1.3211.
Cable spiked out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range on the NFP miss (29K vs 90K). The pullback was absorbed at 1.3211 on the nfp retest of the Asian high, and price extended to a session high at 1.3248. RSI(14) at 64 has cooled from the spike, and the 1.3196 pre-nfp low anchors the move.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3211 (nfp retest) puts price back inside the London range and weakens the breakout read
Rejection at the 1.3248 session high would leave a double cap at 1.3248–1.3250
Acceptance above 1.3250 opens the path to the 1.3300 round number
Loss of the 1.3196 pre-nfp low fully unwinds the NFP leg
No further US or UK data today; ISM Services on Mon is the next USD catalyst
Breakout above London range, higher low at 1.3211.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) broke cable out of the 1.3196–1.3221 London range. Price dipped to a 1.3211 post-NFP low, then extended to a 1.3248 session high, just under 1.3250. Early in the NY session, RSI(14) at ~63 is not stretched, and the 50% fib of the NFP leg sits on the London high at 1.3221. Earlier, the 1.3181 double bottom from Thursday NY and Asia held as the base.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3211, 1.3196
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3248 session high and 1.3250 opens the 1.3300 psych level
A close back below the 1.3221 London high (50% fib) puts price back inside the pre-NFP range
Failure to hold the 1.3211 post-NFP low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3196 pre-NFP low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 GMT may add noise to the post-NFP read
13:31 UTC
Post-NFP bounce, extending above London range · RSI 61 · price 1.32281
NFP breakout from 1.3196–1.3221 London range; spike rejected at 1.3242, pullback held 1.3211.
The across-the-board NFP miss (29K vs 90K) pushed cable out of the London range to an NFP spike high at 1.3242, where it was rejected. The nfp pullback low at 1.3211 held near the 61.8% retrace of the spike, and price is back under the post-NFP cap at 1.3235.
Support: 1.3211, 1.3196, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3242, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3242 nfp spike hi opens the 1.3250 round number
Loss of the 1.3211 nfp pullback puts price back inside the London range toward the 1.3196 pre-nfp low
Break of the rising lows from the Asia low exposes the 1.3181 thursday low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC; post-NFP ATR near 11 pips keeps swings wide
False break above London high, back inside pre-NFP range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked cable through the London high at 1.3221 to the 1.3242 nfp high. The 13:00 UTC bar gave the whole move back to 1.3212 in the first hour of NY, leaving a false break and a return to the 1.3196–1.3221 pre-NFP range. Price is pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) sits neutral near 50; the rising lows from the Asian session remain intact.
Support: 1.3196, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3242
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3221 london high reopens the 1.3242 nfp high
Failure at the 1.3196 pre-nfp low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.3181 thursday low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC is minor, but post-NFP digestion keeps ATR elevated near 10 pips
Breakout above pre-NFP range, higher lows from 1.3181.
The across-the-board NFP miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1% m/m) drove a breakout from the 1.3196–1.3221 pre-release range. Price spiked to 1.3242 and is now holding near 1.3232 at the start of the NY session, with RSI(14) near 69. Rising lows off the 1.3181 double bottom, set at yesterday's NY swing low and retested in the Asian session, underpin the move.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3196, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32416, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3221 range top would turn the NFP move into a false break
Clearance of the 1.3242 spike high opens the 1.3250 round number
Failure to hold the 50% fib of the NFP spike (~1.3219) shifts focus to the 1.3196 pre-nfp low
Break of the rising lows trendline and the 1.3181 swing low would undo the double bottom read
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC is medium-impact but could extend post-NFP volatility
NFP sweep above prior high, faded to top of London range.
The NFP release lifted the pair through the 1.3236 prior high to a 1.3242 NFP high. Price then slipped back to the 1.3221 London high, leaving a long upper-wick rejection on the release bar. Before the print, the London session held a 1.3196–1.3221 range above the 1.3181 Asian low, with the rising lows line from the Asian low still intact.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3196, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32355, 1.32416
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3221 london high returns price to the pre-NFP London range
Acceptance above the 1.3242 nfp high negates the rejection and opens the 1.3250 area
Break of the 1.3196 pre-nfp low and the rising lows line puts the 1.3181 asian low back in play
Post-NFP repricing in US yields and 14:00 GMT Factory Orders can extend the NY session swing
12:31 UTC
Range resolved higher on NFP, spike partly faded · RSI 62 · price 1.3224
London range 1.3196–1.3221 broken on NFP bar; base at 1.3181 Thu low.
Cable held a triple bottom at the 1.3181 Thu low, then spent London boxed between the 1.3196 pre-NFP low and the 1.3221 London high. The 12:30 UTC NFP release broke the range top and spiked to a 1.3242 spike high through the 1.3236 prior high, with a rejection back to 1.3224 on a bar still in development.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3196, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3242, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the London high at 1.3221 turns the NFP range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.3242 spike high opens the 1.3250 round number
Asia low–spike high fib: 50% at 1.3212 and 61.8% at 1.3204 sit inside the old London range
Loss of the 1.3196 pre-NFP low puts the 1.3181 Thu low back in play
NFP wage detail and US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could reverse the first reaction
Tentative break below London range low, at 61.8% of the Asia-London rally.
Cable has slipped beneath the 1.3200 London low in the final bars before NFP. It has given back most of the Asia-to-London rally from 1.3181 to 1.3221 and is now testing the 61.8% fib at 1.3197, with USD firm near its one-year high. RSI(14) sits near 38 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips. The Thursday low at 1.3181 is the next shelf below, and the London range of 1.3200–1.3221 now sits overhead.
Support: 1.31966, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32213
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, prev 162K) is minutes away and could materially shift this read; expect ATR to expand sharply
An M15 close back above the 1.3200 london low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3181 thursday low exposes the 1.3140 YTD low
A recovery through the 1.3221 london high would put the session range break above in play
12:01 UTC
Rebound off lows, stalled in a pre-NFP range · RSI 50 · price 1.32066
Double bottom at 1.3181, then a 1.3200–1.3221 London range.
Cable held a double bottom at the 1.3181 swing low (Thursday's low, retested in Asia) and pushed to a 1.3221 session high after London open. Price has since compressed between the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3221 session high, with the 10:15 UTC dip finding demand near the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg. RSI(14) sits flat near 50 and ATR is about 7 pips ahead of US NFP.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3237
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to resolve the 1.3200–1.3221 range
M15 close below the 1.3200 round number reopens the 1.3181 swing low
Failure to hold 1.3181 would mark a lower-low below Thursday's low
M15 close above the 1.3221 session high exposes the 1.3237 prior high from Thursday midday
11:46 UTC
Recovering from Thursday low, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.32099
Tight London range 1.3199–1.3221, higher lows from Asia.
Cable bounced off the Thu low at 1.3181 in Asia and has coiled between the London low at 1.3199 and the London high at 1.3221 in a quiet pre-NFP drift. Price sits just above EMA20 and the 50% fib of the Asian leg, with rising support from the Asia low still intact. ATR near 7 pips reflects compression into the US jobs report.
Support: 1.3199, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3245
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read and is the likely trigger to break the 1.3199–1.3221 London range
M15 close below the london low at 1.3199 breaks rising support and exposes the Thu low at 1.3181
M15 close above the london high at 1.3221 opens the path to the prior high at 1.3245
London range 1.3200–1.3221 with lower highs off the session high.
The Asia climb from the Thu low at 1.3181 topped at 1.3221, the London session high, and has since printed lower highs. Price is now sitting on the 38.2% fib at 1.3206, holding the 1.3200 London low. The ATR of about 7 pips reflects the quiet drift ahead of US NFP, with GBP heavy on gilt and yield stress.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32213, 1.32491
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~75 min) could materially shift this read; consensus is 90K and AHE 0.3% m/m
M15 close below the 1.3200 london low exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.3197 and the 1.3181 thu low
Break of the lower-high line and close above the 1.3221 session high reopens the 1.3249 prior high
11:01 UTC
Sideways after Asia rebound, pre-NFP compression · RSI 47 · price 1.3207
London range 1.3199–1.3221 with lower highs, holding above Asia double bottom.
Thursday's NY-session slide on firm US data and yields bottomed at the 1.3181 thu low. Asia retested it for a double bottom and rebounded to a 1.3221 london high, from which mid-London has printed lower highs into 1.3213. Price is compressing just above the 1.3200 round number, where demand absorbed a dip to 1.3199, near the 38.2–50% retrace of the Asia rally, as cable drifts ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3213, 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min; f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3181 thu low and puts the double bottom at risk
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.3221 london high reopens the 1.3249 thu high
Tight London range 1.3199–1.3221 above Asia-session double bottom at 1.3181.
Cable's Asia dip retested the Thu low near 1.3181, forming a double bottom. The rebound carried through the Asian high, and London poked to a 1.3221 session high before stalling. Since then it has been a pre-NFP drift in a 1.3199–1.3221 range, with the 1.3199 london low dip bought back. Price is holding the 38.2–50% zone of the asia-london leg.
Support: 1.31994, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32213, 1.32491
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to break the 1.3199–1.3221 range. A hot print revives the USD bid that drove the Thu low.
M15 close below the 1.3199 london low and the 61.8% of the asia-london leg exposes the Thu low at 1.3181.
Close above the 1.3221 session high opens the prior high at 1.3249.
10:31 UTC
Rebound from lows, stalling in London range · RSI 46 · price 1.32089
Double bottom at 1.3181, London range 1.3200–1.3221.
Cable rebounded during Asia off a double bottom at the 1.3181 Thu low, set after Thursday's US data selloff. London has held a tight 1.3200–1.3221 range below the session high. The latest bar briefly broke the 1.3200 psych handle and was rejected near the 50% fib, with price drifting into the pre-NFP lull.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.3200 psych reopens the 1.3181 Thu low
Close above the 1.3221 session high exposes the 1.3249 prior high
Loss of the 1.3181 Thu low invalidates the double bottom
Lower highs from 1.3221 London high, London low 1.3202 holding.
London pushed through the Asian range high to 1.3221 but could not hold it. Lower highs since then have pressed price back to the 38.2% fib of the overnight rally from the 1.3181 Thu low, with the 1.3202 London low and the 1.3200 round number holding just below. Pre-NFP compression keeps ATR near 7 pips, with cable pinned around 1.3200 as the digest describes.
Support: 1.32017, 1.3200, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32131, 1.32213
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read, with ATR likely to expand well beyond 7 pips
M15 close below the 1.3202 london low and the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3181 Thu low
M15 close above the 1.3213 lower highs line breaks the compression, with the 1.3221 london high next
10:01 UTC
Short-term rebound, stalling in a tight range · RSI 46 · price 1.32094
Higher lows off 1.3181; London range 1.3202–1.3221 into NFP.
Asia rebounded from the thursday low at 1.3181 on a higher-low sequence. London has compressed into a 1.3202–1.3221 range, with the london low sitting on the 50% fib of that rebound and price pinned to EMA20. GBP stays heavy against a firm USD ahead of NFP, and the rebound has stalled below the london high.
Support: 1.32017, 1.31813
Resistance: 1.32213, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 london low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the thursday low at 1.3181
M15 close above the 1.3221 london high opens the path to Thursday's prior high at 1.3249
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3181, mid-London consolidation 1.3202–1.3221.
Thursday's USD-driven slide from the 1.3249 thu high bottomed at 1.3181 in NY. Asia retested the low, forming a double btm, and rallied off it. London poked above the 1.3212 asian high to a 1.3221 session high but failed to hold, a false break back to 1.3206. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London rally and above the 1.3202 london low, a quiet hold above 1.3200 ahead of US NFP.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3202 london low puts the 1.3181 double btm back in play
Close back above the 1.3221 session high reopens the 1.3249 thu high
Break of the rising support from the Asia low ends the higher-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) can materially shift this read; ATR near 7 pips is likely to expand sharply
Double bottom at 1.3181 resolved higher; London ranging 1.3202–1.3221.
Thursday's NY selloff on firm US data ran to 1.3181. Asia retested that thursday low and held, forming a double bottom that cleared 1.3201. London capped at the 1.3221 london high, then pulled back to the 1.3202 london low at the 50% fib of the Asia rising lows leg and rebounded, with price holding a quiet range just above EMA20 ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could break either edge of the 1.3202–1.3221 London range
M15 close below the 1.3202 london low and the Asia rising lows trendline puts the 1.3181 thursday low back in play
Close above the 1.3221 london high opens the path to the 1.3249 prior high
Higher lows from Asia low; London range 1.3202–1.3221.
Asia rebuilt off the 1.3181 prior low as DXY eased from its 102.20 high, carving a higher-low chain into the 1.3219 Asian high. London poked above it to the 1.3221 london high and was rejected. Two dips held the 1.3202 london low, near the 50% retrace of the Asia low–london high leg, leaving price mid-range at 1.3211 on the EMA20.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3221 london high clears the Asian range top and opens the path to the 1.3235 prior high
Close below the 1.3202 london low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.3181 prior low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Rebound off lows, stalling into London · RSI 44 · price 1.32047
Higher low off 1.3181 double bottom; London high 1.3221 capping, pullback to 1.3200.
After Thursday's yield-driven USD sell-off, two lows formed at 1.3181 in late NY and Asia, a double btm, and the Asian rebound carried into London. Rejection at the London high of 1.3221 has pulled price back to the round number at 1.3200, the 50% retracement of the Asia-to-London leg. Price is below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3236
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3200 round number exposes the 1.3181 double btm
Clean break of the double btm at 1.3181 turns the rebound into a lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.3221 london high reopens Thursday's NY high at 1.3236
08:46 UTC
Recovering from NY lows, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.3208
Higher lows off 1.3181 double low; early London rejected at 1.3221.
Thursday's NY selloff, as firm claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted USD, ran from the 1.3249 prior high into a 1.3181 double low that held again in the Asia session. The rebound tagged a 1.3221 London high after the open but stalled. Price is back at 1.3208, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-London leg just above the 1.3206 London low.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3201, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (15:30 broker time) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3206 london low exposes the 50% fib at 1.3201, then the 1.3181 double low
Break of the 1.3181 double low ends the higher-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3221 london high reopens the 1.3249 prior high
Failed break of the Asian high; chopping 1.3206–1.3221 mid-London.
Cable climbed off the 1.3181 prior low during Asia as DXY eased from 102.20. London pushed through the 1.3212 Asian high to a 1.3221 session high, but the break failed and price is back at 1.3208, sitting on the 1.3206 London low, the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib, with 1.3200 psych just below. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 7 pips as positions are squared before NFP.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3221, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3212 Asian high reopens the 1.3221 session high; acceptance above it brings the 1.3249 prior high into view
Loss of the 1.3206 London low and 1.3200 psych exposes the 61.8% of the Asia rally near 1.3197, then the 1.3181 prior low
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE f/c 0.3%) can materially shift this read and expand range well beyond current ATR
08:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.32122
Higher lows off 1.3181 double bottom; London holding a tight 1.3206–1.3221 range.
Cable has rebounded about 40 pips from the 1.3181 double btm, where Thursday's low was retested in Asia, as the USD eased into NFP. London briefly broke the 1.3212 Asian high to a 1.3221 london high and has slipped back to test it. The 1.3206 london low sits on the 38.2% retrace and the rising support from the Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.32064, 1.32013, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32213, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of ~6 pips will likely expand.
M15 close below the 1.3206 london low breaks rising support and exposes the 50% fib at 1.3201.
Close back under 1.3181 would undo the double btm and resume Thursday's lower-low sequence.
Acceptance above the 1.3221 london high opens the 1.3235 swing high, then the 1.3249 prior-day hi.
08:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at early London high · RSI 55 · price 1.32126
Higher lows off 1.3181 double bottom; tight 1.3206–1.3219 London range.
Thursday's NY swing low at 1.3181, set on strong US claims and ISM, was retested in Asia and held as a double bottom. Price then climbed along a rising trendline to a 1.3219 session high, and the London open dip to 1.3206 held the Asian range top. Cable is now compressing inside 1.3206–1.3219, still well within yesterday's range below the 1.3249 prior high.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3206 london low and the rising trendline breaks the Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3200 round number near the 38.2% fib (1.3205)
Acceptance above the 1.3219 session high opens yesterday's 1.3249 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 1.3181 swing low back in focus
07:46 UTC
Intraday recovery from 1.3181, stalling into London open · RSI 51 · price 1.32091
Double bottom at 1.3181 broke its 1.3201 neckline in Asia; higher lows now being tested.
Cable set a double bottom at 1.3181, from yesterday's NY low and the Asia low, then cleared the 1.3201 neckline during Asia. It tagged the 1.3219 europe high before the London open faded it to 1.3209, with RSI(14) near 51 and price slipping under EMA20. The Asia trendline and the 1.3205 swing low near the 38.2% fib are now under test, with GBP still heavy on gilt stress and a firm USD into NFP.
Support: 1.32049, 1.3201, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32189, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3205 swing low and 38.2% fib breaks the Asia higher-low chain and puts the 1.3201 neckline on retest
Loss of the 1.3181 double bottom voids the pattern and leaves the 1.3140 YTD low as the next reference
Close above the 1.3219 europe high reopens the 1.3235 swing high and yesterday's 1.3249 prior high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%), roughly 4.75h out, could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Recovery from lows, stalling early London · RSI 52 · price 1.3210
Double bottom at 1.3181, neckline broken, false break of Asian high.
Cable formed a double bottom at 1.3181, yesterday's NY low retested in Asia, then broke the 1.3200 neckline as DXY eased off its 102.20 high. Early London pushed through the 1.3212 Asian high to a 1.3219 session high but slipped back inside. Price is at 1.3210, flat at EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 5–6 pips into NFP.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3219, 1.3235
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 1.3181 double bottom lows back in play
An M15 close below the 1.3206 London low and the Asia rising support exposes the 1.3200 neckline at the 50% fib
An M15 close back above the 1.3219 session high negates the false break of the Asian high and opens the 1.3235 prior swing
Higher lows from 1.3181, capped at London high 1.3219.
Asia built a double bottom at 1.3181 against Thursday's low, and the London open pushed through the Asian high to a session high at 1.3219 before rejection. The pullback held at 1.3206, the London low near the 38.2% fib, while GBP stays heavy near three-month lows ahead of US NFP.
Support: 1.3212, 1.3206, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3235, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3206 london low and the rising trendline turns the recovery into range trade
Clearance of the 1.3219 session high puts the 1.3235 swing high and 1.3249 prior high (Thursday's rebound top) in view
Loss of the 1.3181 double bottom confirms a fresh lower-low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips understates likely release range
07:01 UTC
Short-term uptrend off Thursday low, pausing at London open · RSI 57 · price 1.3212
Asia double bottom at 1.3181, higher lows into a pre-London break of the Asian range top, now retesting it.
GBP/USD put in a double bottom at the 1.3181 Thu low and ground higher through Asia, with the USD easing off its 102.20 high. A pre-London push cleared the Asian range top to a 1.3219 session high. Price is now back near 1.3212 at the London open, above the 1.3205 higher low and EMA20, RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3205 higher low, which sits on the Asia rally fib 38.2%, breaks rising support and puts the 1.3200 round number in play
A close above the 1.3219 session high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.3235 swing high
Loss of 1.3181, the Thu low and double bottom base, would negate the Asia recovery
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to override the intraday structure; ATR near 5 pips will expand sharply
Double low at 1.3181, Asian range high broken pre-London.
GBP held a double low at Thursday's 1.3181 trough after the USD-led slide. Asia then built higher lows along a rising trendline, and the pre-London push cleared the 1.3212 Asian high to a 1.3219 session high. RSI(14) sits near 63 and ATR is about 5 pips, with ranges compressed into NFP.
Support: 1.32121, 1.32045, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.32189, 1.32324, 1.32491
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3212 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the fib 38.2 near 1.3205 exposes the 1.3181 double low
Clearance of the 1.3219 session high brings the 1.3232 ny pivot and the 1.3249 swing high into view
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is likely to reset the intraday structure
06:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off a double bottom, pausing below Asia high · RSI 66 · price 1.32124
Higher lows from 1.3181 through Asia; reclaimed 1.3200 psych, testing 1.3217 Asia high.
Asia printed a double bottom at 1.3181, matching Thursday's low, then lifted through the 1.3200 psych to a 1.3217 Asia high as DXY eased off 102.20. Price is holding just under that high into London open with RSI(14) near 66. The rising trendline from the 1.3181 low and the 1.3205 pullback low frame the higher-low chain.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3235, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3217 Asia high opens the 1.3235 prior high and the 1.3249 swing high
Loss of the 1.3205 pullback low and the 1.3200 psych, where the 38.2% of the Asia rally sits near 1.3203, breaks the rising trendline and higher-low chain
A return below the 1.3181 double btm re-establishes the lower-low sequence from Thursday
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 1.3181, tight consolidation under Asian high.
Thursday's London and NY slide on firm US yields set the Thu low at 1.3181. The Asia session retested it and turned higher, back above 1.3200 psych, as DXY eased ahead of NFP. Price is now compressing in a 6-pip band just under the 1.3212 Asian high into the London open, with the rising Asia trendline holding beneath.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
M15 close above the 1.3212 asian high opens the path to the 1.3249 london high
Close back below 1.3200 psych and the rising Asia trendline returns price to the 50% fib near 1.3197
Failure to hold the 1.3181 thu low confirms a lower-low toward the 1.3140 YTD low
Asia built a double bottom at the 1.3181 Thu low and cleared the 1.3200 neckline as DXY eased into NFP. Price is now pressing the 1.3212 Asia high with RSI(14) near 70, while ATR has compressed to about 4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3212 asia high opens the path to the 1.3249 swing high
Return below the 1.3200 neckline negates the double bottom break
Break of the rising trendline from 1.3181 signals the Asia climb is stalling
Loss of the 1.3181 thu low reopens the 1.3140 YTD low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3181 with the 1.3201 neckline broken; stalling at the Asian high.
Asia session retested Thursday's 1.3181 day low at 01:30 UTC, forming a double bottom, then cleared the 1.3201 neckline as DXY eased into NFP. Price is now flat under the 1.3212 Asian high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 65 and bars compressing to roughly 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3201, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3236, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3212 Asian high opens the 1.3236 swing high, then the 1.3249 london high from Thursday's midday bounce
Return below the 1.3201 neckline, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally, neutralises the double bottom breakout
Failure to hold the 1.3181 day low confirms a lower low
London open (07:00 UTC, about 1.5h away) is the first test of the Asian range edges
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (about 7h away) could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia off 1.3181, tight range under the Asian high.
Asia session rebounded from the Thu low at 1.3181, a double bottom with Thursday's NY low, and reclaimed the 1.3200 round number as DXY eased ahead of NFP. Price is now compressing just below the 1.3212 Asian high late in Asia. RSI(14) sits near 66 and ATR is a thin ~4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3193, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3249, 1.3266
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read and expand ATR well beyond Asian levels
M15 close above the 1.3212 Asian high opens the path to the 1.3249 London high and the 1.3266 prior high
Loss of the 1.3200 round number and the 61.8 fib at 1.3193 returns focus to the Thu low at 1.3181
Break below 1.3181 invalidates the double bottom read
05:01 UTC
Asian recovery after Thursday's selloff · RSI 63 · price 1.32103
HH/HL grind off a triple low, testing the neckline.
In late Asia session trade, GBPUSD has climbed steadily off a triple low at 1.3181. It has reclaimed 1.3200 psych and is pressing the 1.3209 neckline as DXY eases from its 102.20 high ahead of NFP. The Asian high at 1.3212 is capping for now, with the 50% fib of Thursday's 1.3249–1.3181 drop at 1.3215 and the 1.3226 swing high above.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3212, 1.3215, 1.3226
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3215 50% fib exposes the 1.3226 swing high
A slip back below the 1.3209 neckline and 1.3200 psych turns the Asian bounce back into range
Loss of the 1.3181 triple low reopens the 1.3140 YTD low
London open around 07:00 UTC may test the Asian high at 1.3212
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader down day · RSI 73 · price 1.32095
Double bottom near 1.3181, Asian range high under test.
London and NY sold GBP from 1.3266 to 1.3181 as the firm-USD backdrop and ISM prices paid weighed. Asia retested that low for a double btm and has since climbed back through the 1.3200 round number to press the 1.3211 asia high late in the session. RSI(14) at 73 is warm but not stretched, and ATR is a thin 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3211, 1.3228, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3200 round number puts the Asian breakout at risk
A break of the 1.3181 double btm confirms a lower-low
M15 close above 1.3228 ny pivot (ISM-hour rejection) opens the 1.3249 swing high
04:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 78 · price 1.32095
Higher lows off 1.3181 double low, pressing Asian high.
Thursday's London-NY slide from 1.3266 on firm US data and gilt stress stalled at a 1.3181 double low. The Asia session has stacked higher lows back above the 1.3200 round number, with RSI(14) near 78 as price stalls under the 1.3211 Asian high and ATR(14) at about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31963, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32113, 1.32355, 1.32491
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3200 round number and the 50% fib of the Asian leg at 1.3196 returns price to the overnight range
Clearance of the 1.3211 Asian high exposes the 1.3235 swing high, then the 1.3249 bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.3181 double low confirms a fresh lower low
04:16 UTC
Intraday bounce, short-term hot · RSI 77 · price 1.32087
HH/HL climb in Asia off a double low; pressing Asia high.
After Thursday's ISM-driven NY selloff, Asia retested the 1.3181 low and set a double low, then climbed back above the 1.3200 round number along a steady Asia rising support. Price is pressing the 1.3211 Asia high between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the NY selloff fib, with RSI(14) near 77 and ATR under 5 pips.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3211, 1.3236, 1.3249
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.3200 round number undoes the double low breakout
Break of the Asia rising support signals the Asia climb is stalling
Acceptance above the 1.3211 Asia high opens the path to the 1.3236 ny high, then the 1.3249 swing high
Loss of the 1.3181 double low confirms a fresh lower-low
Double low at 1.3181, Asian higher lows into 1.3209 swing high.
Asia session reclaimed the 1.3200 psych level after a second test of the 1.3181 double low held. Price is now pressing the 1.3209 swing high, which sits at the fib 38.2% of Thursday's yield-driven USD leg from the 1.3249 prior high. RSI(14) is near 72 and ATR is about 5 pips heading into London open.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3215, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 swing high exposes the 1.3215 fib 50%, then the 1.3249 prior high
A slip back below 1.3200 psych and the Asian trendline returns focus to the 1.3181 double low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC; a break of the 1.3181 double low on a strong print would confirm a lower low
03:46 UTC
Downtrend pausing, Asia bounce · RSI 69 · price 1.32064
Double bottom at 1.3181, testing 1.3209 neckline.
Asia session printed a second low at 1.3181, matching Thursday's NY double low after the London-NY selloff on firm US ISM prices and claims. Price has since reclaimed the 1.3200 round number and is pressing the 1.3209 prior high, with RSI(14) near 69 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3209 prior high confirms the double bottom and opens 1.3249 ny high
Slip back below the 1.3200 round number puts price back in the Asian range
Break of the 1.3181 double low resumes the downtrend
Loss of the asia rally trendline signals the bounce is fading
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.3181, Asian range broken higher.
Late Asia session lifted GBPUSD out of its Asian range and back above 1.3200 after a double bottom held at the 1.3181 swing low, which marked the floor of the USD-driven London/NY slide; RSI(14) at 64. Price is pressing the 38.2% fib of the 1.3249–1.3181 decline, just under the 1.3209 prior high, with the fib 50% at 1.3215 next overhead.
Support: 1.3199, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3215, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3199 asian high returns price to the range and reopens the 1.3181 swing low
Acceptance above the 1.3209 prior high exposes the fib 50% at 1.3215, with the 1.3249 swing high as the decline's origin
Break of the 1.3181 swing low negates the double bottom and confirms a lower low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend stalling, Asian rebound · RSI 64 · price 1.32034
Double bottom at 1.3181, price at Asian high.
Late Asia retested yesterday's 1.3181 low and held, forming a double low after the London-NY drop that hawkish US data drove. Price has rebounded to the Asian high near 1.3204, back above the 1.3200 psych level and the 23.6% fib, with the 1.3209 prior high just overhead.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3209, 1.3235, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3209 prior high opens the 1.3235 ny high, then the 1.3249 midday high
Slip back below the 1.3200 psych level returns focus to the 1.3181 double low; a break there resumes the downtrend
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.3181–1.3201 with double low at base, price testing range top.
Late Asia session: price is pressing the 1.3201 asian high, which also capped the 21:30 UTC bounce. A double low formed at 1.3181 (18:00 and 01:30 UTC) after the NY sell-off from the 1.3249 london high, as USD firmed on the hot ISM prices paid read. RSI(14) is 57 and ATR is about 5 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of NFP, with price back above the 23.6% fib of that sell-off.
Support: 1.3193, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 asian high completes the double low and opens the 1.3209 swing high, near the 38.2% fib
Slip back below the 1.3193 ema20 returns focus to the 1.3181 double low; a break there sets a fresh lower-low
1.3249 london high caps the larger sell-off structure
London open around 07:00 UTC typically expands the Asian range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Double low at 1.3181, Asian rebound pressing 1.3200 neckline.
Strong US data drove NY to a 3-month low at 1.3181. The Asia session retested that level and rebounded, forming a double low in development. Price is now pressing the 1.3201 neckline and EMA50 near 1.3199 ahead of NFP, on a narrow 5-pip ATR.
Support: 1.3193, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3201, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3201 neckline confirms the double low and opens the 1.3209 swing high, then 1.3249 midday high
Failure at the lower-high line keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Hold of ema20 at 1.3193 keeps the Asian rebound structure in place
Break below 1.3181 double low extends the lower-low chain
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight Asia range · RSI 51 · price 1.31964
Lower highs from 1.3266; 1.3181 swing low tested twice, price at the range top.
GBP/USD bled from the 1.3266 London high to a 1.3181 swing low as the USD bid built on firm US data into NFP, then compressed into a 1.3181–1.3200 range overnight. A second test of the swing low at 01:30 UTC held, lifting price back above the ema20 to press the 1.3200 psych and Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3209, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3200 psych, then the 1.3209 lower high near the fib 38.2%, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back through the ema20 and a close below the 1.3181 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
1.3249 swing high is the 61.8% fib area above the range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 51 · price 1.31951
Post-selloff range 1.3181–1.3201; Asia retested the low and bounced.
Firm USD data drove a selloff from 1.3262 at London open to the 1.3181 swing low in NY hours. Since then price has held a 1.3181–1.3201 range. Asia retested the swing low and bounced back to the asian high at 1.3198, with price holding above the ema20 near 1.3191 but still under EMA50.
Support: 1.3191, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3198, 1.3201, 1.3209
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 range top opens the prior high at 1.3209, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3249–1.3181 leg
Failure to hold the 1.3181 swing low resumes the downtrend leg
Slipping back below the ema20 at 1.3191 keeps price pinned inside the range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.31892
Lower highs from 1.3249, tight Asian range above the swing low.
Thursday's London and NY sessions sold GBPUSD from the 1.3249 london high to a 1.3181 swing low as strong US claims and hot ISM prices paid lifted the USD. Early Asia has retested that swing low and bounced modestly, and price is back mid-range below the 1.3199 asian high. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3199, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3199 asian high and the 1.3200 handle, which sits near 38.2% of the NY selloff fib, would break the Asia consolidation
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
A rally back to the 1.3249 london high would undo Thursday's lower-high structure
Lower-high chain from 1.3249; Asia retesting the 1.3181 NY low.
Early Asia session slipped from the 1.3200 cap through the 1.3187 late NY low and is now retesting the 1.3181 3-mo low, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 4 pips. The last bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 of the 1.3249–1.3181 leg. The USD bid into NFP and gilt-led GBP weakness frame the slide.
Support: 1.31807
Resistance: 1.31873, 1.32012, 1.32086
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 3-mo low confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.3187 late ny low puts the 1.3200 cap back in play
Recovery through the fib 38.2 at 1.3209 breaks the lower-high chain
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 32 · price 1.31844
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; tight post-NY range 1.3187–1.3201 now slipping lower in early Asia.
GBP/USD carved lower lows through London and NY Thursday as firm US data and gilt stress weighed, bottoming at the 1.3181 NY low before compressing in a 1.3187–1.3201 range. Early Asia has slipped just below that range low with RSI(14) near 32. Price is still capped under the lower highs trendline, and the range high lines up with the 38.2% of the NY drop fib.
Support: 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3187, 1.3201, 1.3235
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 ny low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.3187 range low puts price back inside the overnight range and negates the slip
Close above the 1.3201 range high, which sits at the lower highs trendline and 38.2% of the NY drop fib, opens the path toward the 1.3235 ny high
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.3181–1.3201 after London sell-off; Asia pressing range floor.
GBP/USD bled from 1.3272 through London. Gilt stress and firm US data lifted USD, the London high at 1.3249 failed, and NY printed a 1.3181 low near the June-26 low. Since then price has held a 1.3181–1.3201 range, and the Asia session is now testing its asian low at 1.3187 with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR down to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.31872, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.31988, 1.32068, 1.32491
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3181 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.3199 asian high and the 1.3200 handle reopens the 38.2% fib near 1.3207
Bounce capped below the 38.2% fib keeps the London high at 1.3249 out of reach
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.31897
Lower highs from 1.3249; tight Asian range above the 1.3181 NY low.
London broke below Thursday's Asian range and NY extended to a 1.3181 NY low. Firm US claims and ISM prices paid kept USD bid as gilt stress weighed on GBP. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.3187–1.3199 Asian range below EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR down to about 5 pips. The late-NY bounce stalled short of the 38.2% fib of the 1.3249–1.3181 leg.
Support: 1.31873, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.31988, 1.32068, 1.32355
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3187 asian low exposes the 1.3181 ny low, near the June-26 low cited in the digest
Break of the 1.3181 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.3199 asian high and the 1.3200 handle puts the 38.2% fib at 1.3207 in play
Reclaim of the 1.3236 ny high would break the lower-high chain
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; range likely stays narrow until then
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight base · RSI 52 · price 1.31975
Lower highs from 1.3249, flat basing above the 1.3181 day low.
Firm US claims and ISM prices paid, plus gilt stress, drove a London-NY sell-off from the 1.3249 london high to a 1.3181 day low. Since then price has held a narrow Asian range just under the 1.3201 late NY high, with a rising lows line from the day low and the rollover low intact, and it sits at the 23.6% fib.
Support: 1.31873, 1.31807
Resistance: 1.32012, 1.32086, 1.3249
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3201 late NY high and the 1.3209 swing high (38.2% fib) breaks the basing range to the upside
Loss of the 1.3187 rollover low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.3181 day low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read