Sterling carved a higher low at 1.3273 and rallied sharply to 1.3494, a recovery aided by GBP short-covering after the closer-than-expected BoE hold. Price is now pulling back into the recovery leg, holding above 1.3417, with ATR(14) around 49 pips reflecting an active but not runaway range. Both EMAs sit below spot, keeping the near-term structure constructive while the 1.3494/1.3500 cap remains untested on this leg.
Support: 1.34174, 1.3400, 1.33385
Resistance: 1.34945, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3400 breaks the higher-low structure and reopens 1.3385
Sustained move above 1.3494/1.3500 resumes the recovery toward 1.3555
US ADP and ISM Services Wed could shift the USD side of this read
GBPUSD rebounded off the 1.3273 swing low, rallying to a 1.3506 week high before the current pullback, which has retraced to roughly the 38.2% fib near 1.3417. Soft UK Manufacturing PMI and a dovish-lean BoE hold cap the upside, while deep net-short positioning has fuelled the short-covering recovery. Price still holds above both EMAs with ATR steady around 54 pips.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3385, 1.32733
Resistance: 1.35059, 1.3555
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3385 would negate the recovery and reopen 1.3273
Sustained move above 1.3506 exposes the 1.3555 prior high
US ISM Services / ADP Wed could shift the USD-side read
Price carved a rounded base near the 1.3273 swing low through late July, then a strong impulse candle drove a breakout above 1.3450 and up to a 1.3506 session high — GBP came off seven-week highs after the soft Manufacturing PMI miss. The current bar is pulling back toward the 1.3400 round number while holding above EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the recovery structure intact. ATR is expanding, consistent with the recent range extension.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3385, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3557
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3400 exposes the 1.3385 prior low and reopens the downside
A sustained push through 1.3506 targets the 1.3557 prior high
US ADP and ISM Services Wed could materially shift the USD side of this read
GBPUSD rallied hard off the 1.3273 swing low to tag 1.3506, printing a higher low structure, but stalled and pulled back to 1.3433 as it ran into supply near the highs. The retreat follows GBP slipping off seven-week highs after a soft Manufacturing PMI and dovish BoE hold, with a firm US ISM print keeping the dollar supported. Price now sits mid-move, roughly a third of the way back down the impulse, with ATR moderate.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3385, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3555
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3506 opens the path toward the 1.3555 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 psych level exposes 1.3385 then the 1.3273 swing low
US ADP and ISM Services Wed could materially shift the USD-side read
Higher lows off late-month base, stalling sub-1.3510.
Cable recovered off the 1.3273 base into a higher-low sequence, with the BoE 'hawkish hold' pop driving the impulse leg toward the 1.3506 pivot before rejection kept price capped sub-1.3510. Momentum is slowing as the advance stalls under the 1.3515 barrier, and ATR remains elevated from the BoE spike. The higher-low structure holds while 1.3450 swing low supports.
Support: 1.3450, 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3515 barrier opens the path toward the 1.3558 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3450 swing low threatens the higher-low structure toward 1.3400 psych
US ISM today and NFP later this week could materially shift the USD leg
Cable carved a double bottom near 1.3273 late in the window and rallied hard to 1.3506 on the BoE's 6-3 hawkish-hold pop, though Bailey's pushback has since capped price sub-1.3500. The current dip to 1.3467 is a shallow pullback that holds well above the EMA20/EMA50, keeping the higher-low structure intact. ATR is elevated, reflecting the recent expansion off the base.
Support: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3506/1.3515 opens the path toward 1.3558
Failure to hold 1.3450 exposes 1.3400 support
US ISM/NFP this week can materially shift this read via USD
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after recovery leg · RSI 58 · price 1.34586
Higher lows off the late-month low, rally stalling below 1.3506.
Cable carved a base near 1.3273 and rallied hard through the 1.3400 shelf, clearing EMA20 and EMA50 as the USD drifted near six-week lows and the BoE's hawkish-hold impulse faded once Bailey talked it down. Price tagged 1.3506 before easing back to 1.3459, keeping the higher-low sequence intact. ATR has expanded through the breakout, signalling the recovery leg still carries momentum.
Support: 1.3414, 1.3400, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.35059, 1.35281
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3506 opens the path toward the 1.35281 prior high
Failure to hold 1.3400 key support reopens the 1.32730 range low
US ISM today 14:00 UTC and NFP Friday could materially shift this read
Sharp recovery off the 1.3273 double-bottom low, with price impulsively rallying through 1.3400 key support to tag a 1.3495 swing high before easing to 1.3459. Broad USD softness near six-week lows fuelled the bounce, though GBP has struggled to extend after the BoE hawkish hold was talked down. ATR(14) has expanded on the rally, but the last three bars are drifting off the high into the 1.3515 barrier.
Support: 1.3453, 1.3400, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3495, 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3515 barrier opens the path to the 1.3558 prior high
Failure to hold 1.3400 key support reopens the 1.3273 double-bottom low
US ISM today and NFP Friday could materially shift this read via USD direction
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 1.3468
Higher highs and higher lows since late-month low.
GBPUSD has carved a clean higher-low sequence off the 1.3273 base, breaking out through the 1.3350 range on the hawkish BoE 6-3 hold and a softening USD after the Q2 GDP miss. Price now consolidates in the mid-1.34s just below the 1.3506 recent high, with ATR still elevated after the impulse leg. Buyers stepped in repeatedly around 1.3415-1.3440, holding the breakout retest zone.
Support: 1.3440, 1.3400, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3515 opens the path toward 1.3558 and confirms the short-squeeze scenario
Loss of 1.3400 support questions the higher-low structure
US ISM Manufacturing PMI today could shift USD flows and this read
Price carved a multi-day base around 1.3275 before a sharp ~230-pip recovery that tagged 1.3506, with the current pullback to 1.3468 the first pause. The leg followed the hawkish BoE-hold repricing and a soft US Q2 GDP print, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 to confirm the shift. ATR(14) is moderate, so the rally is extending rather than compressing into the 1.3515 barrier.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3506, 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.3515 barrier opens room toward the 1.3558 prior high
Loss of 1.3400 support validates the 'BoE offers scant support' downside case
US ISM today 14:00 UTC could shift USD flows and this read
01:02 UTC
Recovery, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.34883
Reversal off 1.3273 lows, reclaimed 1.3400.
Cable carved a double bottom near 1.3273 and has since ripped higher, reclaiming the 1.3400 round number and driving into the 1.3515 area, aided by a hawkish 6-3 BoE hold and a stalling USD short-covering squeeze. ATR(14) is expanding on the back of large impulse candles, confirming a trend leg rather than noise, with price holding well above EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.35059 session high is the immediate ceiling capping the advance.
Support: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.35059, 1.3515, 1.35579
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
H4 close above 1.3515 opens the path toward the 1.35579 prior high
Failure to hold 1.3400 negates the recovery and reopens 1.3273
Price carved a double bottom near 1.3273 late in the window and has staged a ~200-pip recovery, with GBP staying firm after the hawkish 6-3 BoE hold. The rally cleared the 1.3400 round level and flipped the H4 EMA20 above EMA50, leaving price probing toward the 1.3515 prior high. Momentum is elevated with RSI in the mid-60s as the move approaches the upper resistance band.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3284, 1.3273
Resistance: 1.3515, 1.3558
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 1.3515 opens the path toward the 1.3558 month high
Failure to hold 1.3400 would undercut the recovery and re-expose 1.3284
Brent above $90 reviving BoE hike odds is the swing factor for further GBP strength