Lower highs from 1.3406; higher lows off 1.3181, range top cleared.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 1.3406 stalled at the 1.3181 swing low. The 1.3190 retest formed a double bottom with higher lows inside a 1.3190–1.3255 range. This week price pushed through the range top and the lower-highs trendline, helped by soft US payrolls and UK PMI beats, and now trades just under the 78.6% fib of the 1.3311–1.3181 leg, above both EMAs. ATR(14) near 29 pips is mid-regime rather than expanding, so the breakout lacks range expansion so far.
Support: 1.3255, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3286, 1.3311, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3255 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 78.6% fib and the 1.3311 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 1.3387 prior high
Loss of the 1.3190 range floor and 1.3181 swing low would resume the downtrend
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and BoE Greene/Lombardelli (Thu) could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend basing, bounce testing range top · RSI 63 · price 1.32766
Lower highs from 1.3568 to 1.3311; higher lows off the 1.3181 base.
Lower highs run from 1.3568 through the 1.3400 lower high to the 1.3311 swing high. Downside momentum has stalled at the 1.3181 swing low, with a twin low near 1.3190 and higher lows since, forming a double bottom inside the range. Mann's embedded-inflation warning and a softer USD lifted price through the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib at 1.3265, with price now above both EMAs and ATR(14) near 31 pips, a contained regime rather than trend expansion.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 1.3265 (38.2% fib) returns price to the 1.3200–1.3265 range
A close above the 1.3311 swing high opens the path to the 1.3400 lower high
Loss of the 1.3200 range floor and the 1.3181 swing low would reassert the downtrend
A higher-lows trendline break would undercut the base read
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and BoE Greene/Lombardelli (Thu) could materially shift this read
The slide from 1.3568 stalled at the 1.3181 swing low on Sep 30. Since then GBPUSD has printed higher lows at 1.3190 and 1.3201 inside a 1.3181–1.3311 range, with the base lows forming a double bottom. The latest bar cleared the 1.3256 prior high, which is the pattern neckline, and the 38.2% fib, and is now pressing the 1.3280 swing high. Strong UK data beats and Friday's soft NFP are offsetting record-high UST yields. ATR(14) near 31 pips is below the late-September expansion, and price is back above both EMAs after two weeks of chop around them.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3256 prior high negates the double-bottom breakout and returns price to the range
Sustained trade above the 1.3280 swing high and a close through the 1.3311 range top (61.8% fib zone) opens the 1.3400 lower high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 1.3190 base lows exposes the 1.3181 swing low and resumes the downtrend
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman today could materially shift this read via UST yields
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 53 · price 1.32347
Lower highs since 1.3406; 1.3181-1.3256 range since Oct 1.
The three-week sequence of lower highs (1.3406, 1.3400, 1.3311) remains intact. The decline from 1.3550 has stalled since the 1.3181 swing low, and price is now boxed between the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3256 range high, sitting near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3311-1.3181 leg. The NFP miss lifted the pair back above 1.32, but record US yields keep capping rebounds. ATR(14) near 30 pips is compressing, and price is pinned against a flattening EMA50 with EMA20 still below it.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3256 range high, then the 1.3311 swing high, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3181 swing low resumes the downtrend
BoE Mann today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could break the compression either way
Fed Williams and Bowman today plus the US 10y yield as the main cap on rebounds
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 53 · price 1.32209
Lower highs above a flat 1.3180-1.3190 floor since late Sep.
The slide from the 1.3568 early-September high has given way to a range since Sep 24. The range floor at 1.3180-1.3190, including the oct low at 1.3181, held twice this week, while each bounce has stalled at a lower high: 1.3311 range top, then 1.3256 near the 50-61.8% fib of that leg. Price sits on a flat EMA20 just under the ema50 at ~1.3235, and ATR(14) has compressed to ~28 pips from 50-90 pip bars during the September sell-off. The weak US payrolls bounce lifted the pair but failed to clear the lower-high sequence, with firm US yields capping rallies.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3180 oct low breaks the range floor and resumes the downtrend sequence
H4 close above the 1.3256 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and opens the 1.3311 range top
Price holding beneath the ema50 near 1.3235 keeps rallies inside the lower-high structure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and BoE Mann today 08:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above base · RSI 51 · price 1.32179
Lower highs from 1.3311 onto flat 1.3181–1.3190 base.
The three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 1.3568 is intact. Since the 30 Sep 1.3311 swing high, rallies have capped progressively lower, at the 1.3256 lower high after Friday's weak NFP bounce. Below, a flat 1.3181–1.3190 base has held three tests. Price is pinned just under EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) near 30 pips, a compressing structure as rising US long-end yields offset the UK data beats.
Support: 1.3190, 1.3181, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3181 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 1.3140 ytd low
H4 close above the 1.3256 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 1.3311 swing high
BoE Mann Tue 08:40 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Repeated holds of the 1.3190 base keep the compression read in play; a break of either edge resolves it