GBP/USD has unwound most of the late-October rally from the 1.3272 late-oct low. A double top at 1.3500 capped the advance after the BoE hike failed to extend gains, and the blowout US NFP (165K vs 65K) then drove a break below the 1.3400 psych level and the higher-low line. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib retracement near 1.3360, just above the 1.3342 swing low, with ATR(14) expanding to about 32 pips, RSI near 31 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3300, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3342 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3300 prior lows and the 1.3272 late-oct low
Recovery back above the 1.3400 psych level would reopen the 1.3450 prior high and undercut the double top follow-through
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing turn from the 1.3500 double top
BoE Gov. Bailey Mon 17:25 UTC: a December-hike signal or a dovish echo of Pill could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC: a hot core print adds to USD pressure, a soft print risks a retest of 1.3400
Double top at 1.3500, neckline at 1.3454 broken, lower high in place.
The rally from the 1.3272 low stalled twice at 1.3500, forming a double top as the fully priced BoE hike turned into a sell-the-fact move. The slide through the 1.3454 neckline has already covered the measured move, and the rising trendline off the late-October lows has given way. Price now sits between the 38.2% fib (1.3415) and the 1.3381 swing low near the 50% retracement, below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI near 38 and ATR around 30 pips expanding on the decline.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3360, 1.3327
Resistance: 1.3415, 1.3454, 1.3500
What it said to watch
US NFP just released; the print could materially shift this read in the next few bars
An H4 close back above the 1.3454 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 1.3381 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3360 and then the late-oct low at 1.3327
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing rolling over
Bailey (Mon) and UK Q3 GDP (Thu) are the next GBP-specific risks to the structure
The rally from the 1.3272 oct low topped out in a double top at 1.3500. Supply capped two tests there, and the 1.3445 neckline gave way as USD found a haven bid after the fully priced BoE hike. Price has broken the rally trendline and slipped below both EMAs, putting a sequence of lower highs in place. It now sits on the range base at 1.3395, near the 50% level of the rally fib (1.3388), with ATR(14) around 30 pips and still expanding on the decline.
Support: 1.3395, 1.3374, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3445, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a strong print pressures the 1.3395 range base
H4 close below the 1.3374 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% rally fib near 1.3360
Recovery and H4 close back above the 1.3445 neckline would negate the double top read
Bailey (Mon) and UK Q3 GDP (Thu) are the next GBP-side risks to the structure
Twin cap at 1.3500, now trading below 1.3448 neckline.
The higher-low advance from the 1.3272 swing low carried cable to 1.3503 on the post-midterm USD sell-off. Price was then rejected twice near 1.3500, forming a small double top. A run of lower highs since then has pushed it below the 1.3448 neckline and under EMA(20), toward the 38.2% fib at 1.3415. EMA(20) still sits above EMA(50), so no swing cross yet, and ATR(14) near 31 pips is steady rather than compressing ahead of US NFP.
Support: 1.3415, 1.3400, 1.3388
Resistance: 1.3448, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3448 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.3415 exposes the 1.3400 range floor and the 50% fib at 1.3388
EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) would confirm the swing rollover
US NFP today 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read in either direction
A recovery through the lower highs toward the 1.3500 double top would restore the prior uptrend structure
Bailey speaks Mon Nov 9 17:25 UTC; BoE rhetoric is a secondary risk to the structure
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from 1.3500 · RSI 56 · price 1.34563
Higher lows since 1.3272; double test of 1.3500 capping.
Higher-low structure intact since the 1.3272 base, with the rally driven by broad USD weakness after the midterm sweep and a unanimous BoE hike to 4%. Price was rejected twice at the 1.3500 cap and has since printed a lower high at 1.3486. It is now sitting near the 1.3443 swing low and the rising trendline, slipping under EMA20 while holding above EMA50. ATR(14) near 33 pips has eased from the breakout leg, pointing to consolidation rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.3443, 1.3422, 1.3396
Resistance: 1.3486, 1.3503
What it said to watch
US NFP today 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.3443 swing low turns the 1.3500 double test into a double top and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.3422
Failure to hold the 1.3396 higher low breaks the higher-low sequence from 1.3272
H4 close above the 1.3486 lower high and the 1.3500 cap resumes the uptrend
Bailey speech Mon Nov 9 is the next GBP-specific risk