21:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in range · RSI 39 · price 1.3267
Lower highs from Aug 21 peak, basing in 1.3180–1.3310 range.
Seven-week downtrend from the Aug 21 high at 1.3675. Price has held below a falling EMA(50) since the mid-September slide, and the 1.3568 lower high on Sep 9 capped the last recovery. Since Sep 24 the pair has compressed into a 1.3180–1.3310 range, with demand at the range floor on BoE hike pricing while USD strength on 24-year-high US yields caps rallies below the range top and EMA(20). Today's FOMC minutes signalled another hike, but they largely confirmed what was already priced and left price mid-range, with RSI near 39 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3180, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3400, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3180 range floor resumes the downtrend and exposes the june low at 1.3140
- Close above the 1.3310 range top and EMA(20) shifts focus to the ema50 and the falling trendline near 1.3400
- Recovery through the 1.3568 lower high would invalidate the downtrend read
- US jobless claims and Fed's Waller and Musalem speak Thursday, as do BoE Greene and Lombardelli; any of these could break the range