20:48 UTC
Range-bound, macro trend neutral · RSI 44 · price 1.33362
Multi-quarter range 1.3140–1.3675, lower highs against rising lows.
Range-bound between 1.3140 and 1.3675 since the January 2026 high at 1.3869. Lower highs against rising lows are compressing the structure, and the range floor near 1.3140 has held in March, June and October. Price at 1.3336 sits below a flat W1 EMA(50) near 1.3400 and on the 61.8% retracement of the Nov–Jan leg; RSI near 44 is mid-range noise at this timeframe. Hot UK CPI has firmed pricing for a November BoE hike, but the 1.3400 EMA(50) area is capping the rebound, and the 2025 low at 1.3010 is the deeper reference below the floor.
Support: 1.3140, 1.3010
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3675, 1.3869
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above 1.3400 (ema50) reopens the upper half of the range toward the 1.3675 range top
- Weekly close below the 1.3140 range floor breaks the multi-quarter base and exposes the 2025 low at 1.3010
- A break of either the lower highs line or the rising lows line resolves the current compression
- Weekly close above the 1.3869 2026 high would end the range regime
- Bailey speech Thu, UK Budget 28 Oct, Fed meeting next week and BoE decision 5 Nov could materially shift this read