Cable carved fresh YTD lows near 1.3140 then based and recovered, printing higher lows over the last several sessions and now pressing the 1.3245 area UOB flagged. The broader H4 sequence is still the downtrend off 1.3460, but ATR(14) compression and the rounded base point to a stabilising tape. Last close at 1.3254 sits back above EMA20/EMA50 after the rebound from the lows.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3110
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3270, 1.3300
What it said to watch
UK GDP Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 1.3270 swing high extends the recovery toward 1.3300
Failure to hold the 1.3200 pivot reopens the 1.3140 ytd low
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising near lows · RSI 54 · price 1.32309
Lower highs since 1.3483; double bottom forming at 1.3140.
Cable carved a sequence of lower highs from 1.3483 into a 1.3140 YTD low before clawing back above the 1.3200 pivot as the USD rally faded post-PCE. The twin lows near 1.3140 give a tentative double-bottom look, and price has reclaimed the EMA20 while still capped below the EMA50 around 1.3260. ATR(14) has compressed toward 40 pips, leaving the 1.3200-1.3245 band as the near-term decision zone.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3110
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3260
What it said to watch
UK GDP tomorrow 06:00 UTC is the primary catalyst for this read
H4 close above 1.3245 swing high opens the path toward the 1.3260 ema50
Loss of the 1.3200 pivot reopens the 1.3140 ytd low and 1.3110 major support
US NFP week — USD direction remains the dominant driver
Cable has been in a clear H4 downtrend through the month, printing a 7-month low at 1.3140 before stabilising; price now consolidates in a 1.3140–1.3220 band beneath the EMA50 as ATR(14) compresses. The recovery off the lows reclaimed the EMA20 but rallies into 1.3245 have repeatedly been sold, leaving GBP capped near 1.3200 in a political-driven leadership vacuum. Bias stays heavy into Tuesday's UK GDP, which is the next structural catalyst.
Support: 1.3140, 1.3110
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3245
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3245 supply cap neutralises the bearish structure
Failure to hold 1.3140 ytd low opens the path to 1.3110 next support
UK GDP Tue 30 Jun 06:00 UTC could break the 1.3140–1.3220 range
Cable carved a clean downtrend from 1.3460 into the 1.3140 YTD low, and has since gone sideways in a tight 1.3160-1.3220 range with ATR(14) compressing. The rebound off lows tracks a softer USD into month-end while UK political risk keeps 1.3245 capping recovery attempts. Price is flirting with EMA20 but sits well below the declining EMA50.
Support: 1.3160, 1.3140, 1.3110
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3245
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3220 range top would open the 1.3245 cap
Break above 1.3245 neutralizes the lower-high structure
Loss of 1.3160 floor reopens the 1.3140 ytd low and 1.3110
UK GDP Tue 06:00 UTC could break the range either way
Cable remains in a clear H4 downtrend, having carved lower highs from 1.3460 down to seven-month lows at 1.3140 as the UK political vacuum overwhelmed the BoE's hawkish lean. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.3140-1.3220 band below both EMAs, with ATR(14) compressing as the slide stalls. Demand has stepped in twice near 1.3140 while 1.3220 caps the recovery attempts.
Support: 1.3140, 1.3110
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3245
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3140 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.3110 major support
H4 close above 1.3220 / 1.3245 neutralises the near-term downtrend read
UK GDP Tue 06:00 UTC could break this consolidation either way