Higher lows since the 1.3301 NY low; Asian range 1.3373–1.3390 in development.
Cable is holding its NY-session rally off 1.3301. GBP outperformed despite the US GDP beat, and the late-NY pullback found demand at 1.3360. Early Asia pushed to a 1.3390 Asia high but has faded back toward the 1.3374 Asia low, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.33731, 1.33602
Resistance: 1.33897, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.3373 Asia low exposes the 1.3360 NY pullback low and the 23.6% retracement of the rally near 1.3369
M15 close above the 1.3390 Asia high puts the 1.3400 round number in play
US ECI Q3 Friday 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs into early Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.33838
HH/HL chain off the NY low, holding above the 1.3360-1.3375 range.
The US GDP beat drove a 12:30 UTC flush to 1.3301, which was bought. The NY rally reached 1.3380, then consolidated above the 1.3360 range low and broke higher late NY, clearing the 1.3365 resistance flagged in the digest. Early Asia has printed a session high at 1.3390 with the rollover low at 1.3373 intact. RSI(14) is warm near 66 but not stretched.
Support: 1.33731, 1.33602, 1.33557
Resistance: 1.33897, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3373 rollover low would break the higher-low chain and put the 1.3360 range low back in focus
Acceptance above the 1.3390 session high exposes the 1.3400 psych level
Loss of the NY rally fib 38.2% at 1.3356 would turn the move into a deeper retracement
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Friday (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 64 · price 1.33838
HH/HL chain off the 1.3301 NY low; tight early-Asia range above 1.3380.
Cable rallied about 90 pips during NY hours off the 1.3301 post-GDP low. BoE hike pricing outweighed the US GDP beat, and price cleared the 1.3365 cap and the 1.3380 breakout lvl. Early Asia is holding a 6-pip band just under the 1.3390 session high, with the rollover low at 1.3373 beneath and RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
Support: 1.3380, 1.3373, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3380 breakout lvl returns price to the 1.3360–1.3380 NY range
Loss of the 1.3360 range low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the NY rally fib 38.2% near 1.3356 in play
Clean break of the 1.3390 session high exposes 1.3400 psych
Failure to hold the 1.3373 rollover low would mark the first lower-low since the NY rally
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Friday (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 13:15 UTC swing low, fresh session high.
Cable shrugged off the US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC. The NY rally ran from the 1.3301 low through the 1.3365 cap and held a rising trendline of higher lows. Thin trade after the rollover has pushed price to a new session high at 1.3390, with the 1.3384 prior high now underneath and RSI(14) near 67 but not stretched.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3373, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3373 rollover low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.3360 swing low turns the NY rally into a deeper retracement toward its 38.2% fib near 1.3356
1.3400 round number is the next area to watch for rejection or break above the session high
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing day high · RSI 65 · price 1.33841
Higher lows since the post-GDP reversal; thin post-rollover push to new highs.
Cable spiked to 1.3338 and back to 1.3301 on the US GDP beat, then reversed into a NY-session rally as the BoE-hike bid offset strong US data. After holding the 1.3360 NY low, the pair printed a thin post-rollover push to a 1.3389 day high and is sitting just below it at the start of Asia, through the 1.3385 resistance flagged in the macro digest.
Support: 1.33731, 1.33602, 1.33531
Resistance: 1.33886, 1.3400
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3373 rollover low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 1.3360 NY low opens the fib 38.2 retracement near 1.3353
Acceptance above the 1.3389 day high puts the 1.3400 round number in focus
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.3301 NY low; Asian range broken above, price above prior high.
Cable whipsawed around the 12:30 UTC US GDP beat, then rallied from the 1.3301 NY low through the Asian range high and the 1.3365 cap as the BoE-hike bid absorbed USD strength. The 1.3360–1.3380 NY consolidation resolved higher into a 1.3389 session high after the rollover, with price holding just above the 1.3380 prior high and RSI(14) firm in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3380, 1.3373, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.33886, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3380 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3373 rollover low and then 1.3360 range low would break the HL chain and expose the NY rally fib 38.2% near 1.3355
Close above the 1.3389 session high opens the 1.3400 round number
US ECI Q3 Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3360, prior high 1.3384 broken in thin trade.
Cable reversed hard from the 1.3301 post-US GDP low and rallied through NY hours as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US data beat. The 1.3360 swing low held as a higher low, and a thin post-NY push has cleared the 1.3384 prior high to a fresh session high at 1.3388. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 6 pips with liquidity light into the Asia session.
Support: 1.33843, 1.33731, 1.33602
Resistance: 1.33881, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3384 prior high keeps the breakout intact; the 1.3400 round number is the next reference above the session high
An M15 close back below the 1.3373 rollover low would mark the breakout as a false break and expose 1.3360
Failure to hold the 1.3360 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence from the NY rally
US ECI on Fri at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near day high · RSI 64 · price 1.33789
Higher lows from the 1.3301 NY dip; day high 1.3384 now capping.
The US GDP beat at 12:30 UTC produced a brief dip to the 1.3301 post-GDP low. The BoE-hike bid then lifted cable roughly 84 pips through the us data high at 1.3338, then held a 1.3360–1.3380 band with the ny low at 1.3360 as its floor. A late-NY push printed a 1.3384 day high, and price is now drifting just below it in thin post-rollover trade.
Support: 1.3360, 1.33384, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.33843, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3384 day high extends the breakout toward the 1.3400 round number
Loss of the 1.3360 ny low and the rally trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Return below the 1.3338 us data high puts the NY rally fib 50% near 1.3342–1.3352 in play
Post-rollover Asia session liquidity is thin, so early ranges may be narrow
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.3301 after 1.3296 London low; 1.3360–1.3380 NY range broken higher.
Cable dipped to 1.3301 on the US GDP beat, held above the 1.3296 London low, then rallied through the 1.3365 cap during NY hours as the BoE-hike bid absorbed firm US data. A late break of the 1.3360–1.3380 NY range printed a 1.3384 session high, just shy of the 1.3385 cap, before easing to 1.3375 in thin post-NY trade. RSI(14) is near 60 and price is above both EMAs.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3340
Resistance: 1.3384, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3360 range low returns price to the NY range and exposes the 50% fib near 1.3340
Acceptance above the 1.3384 session high clears the 1.3385 cap and brings the 1.3400 round number into view
Thin rollover and Asia session liquidity limit what the current drift says about direction
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3301 NY low; consolidating below the 1.3384 session high.
NY session absorbed the US GDP beat on GBP's BoE-hike bid. It reversed the post-data dip to 1.3301 and broke the 1.3338 breakout lvl, then made a higher low at the 1.3360 swing low before printing a 1.3384 session high. Price is now easing to 1.3374 in thin rollover trade with RSI(14) neutral near 56. The NY uptrend line is intact, and the 38.2% fib of the NY rally sits near 1.3352.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3384, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3360 swing low breaks the NY uptrend line and the higher-low chain
Close back below the 1.3338 breakout lvl invalidates the breakout read
A push through the 1.3384 session high puts the 1.3400 round number in play
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 55 · price 1.33739
HH/HL chain from 1.3301 NY low; tight 1.3360–1.3384 range into Asia open.
NY rallied from 1.3301 after the US GDP beat and cleared the 1.3338 prior high and the 1.3365 area. The BoE-hike bid offset the stronger dollar data. Price based above the 1.3360 NY low, printed a 1.3384 day high late in the session and is drifting at 1.3374 into the Asia open with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.33602, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33843, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3360 NY low reopens the 1.3338 prior high and the 50% fib of the NY rally near 1.3342
M15 close above the 1.3384 day high puts the 1.3400 round number in play
Thin Asia session liquidity after rollover; US ECI Q3 (f/c 0.8%) at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Higher highs since 1.3301 GDP low; afternoon range 1.3360–1.3380 broken higher, price back at its top.
Cable reversed from the 1.3301 GDP low during NY hours as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US GDP beat, then held a 1.3360–1.3380 range through the afternoon. A 20:00 UTC push broke the range top to a 1.3384 day high, near the 1.3385 resistance flagged in the digest, and the last bar slipped back to 1.3378 to retest the old range top with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.3360, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33843, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3360 range low turns the late breakout into a false break
Clean M15 close above the 1.3384 day high opens the 1.3400 round number
Loss of the 1.3338 gdp high would break the higher-low chain from the GDP low
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Uptrend, fresh day high in late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.33819
Higher lows off the 1.3301 NY low; afternoon flag resolved higher.
Cable broke the 1.3380 prior high at 20:00 UTC and printed a session high at 1.3384, near the digest's 1.3385 resistance, after a two-hour flag based at the 1.3360 swing low. The NY rally off the 1.3301 post-GDP low held despite the US GDP beat, with the BoE-hike bid offsetting firm US data. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched, and the 50% fib of the NY rally sits at 1.3342.
Support: 1.3380, 1.3360, 1.33425
Resistance: 1.33843, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3380 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3360 swing low breaks the NY uptrend line and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.3384 session high and 1.3385 resistance opens the 1.3400 round number
Thin late-NY into Asia liquidity; US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fresh high late NY · RSI 66 · price 1.33819
HH/HL chain from 1.3301; 1.3360–1.3380 range broken higher.
Late in the NY session cable pushed through the 1.3380 prior high after a four-hour 1.3360–1.3380 range, printing a session high at 1.3383 just under the 1.3385 resistance flagged in the digest. The leg extends the rally from the 1.3301 post-GDP low, with BoE-hike pricing offsetting the US beat; RSI(14) near 66 is not stretched.
Support: 1.33798, 1.33602, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33829, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3380 prior high marks a false break back inside the 1.3360–1.3380 range
Loss of the 1.3360 range low and the NY rally line breaks the higher-low sequence from 1.3301
Acceptance above the session high and 1.3385 opens the 1.3400 round number
1.3338 gdp spike hi, near the 50% retracement of the 1.3301–1.3383 leg, is deeper support if the range low fails
Fri US ECI Q3 (12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem Fed speak could materially shift this read
NY rally off the post-GDP low, holding a 1.3360–1.3381 range and retesting the top.
Cable reversed the post-GDP dip to 1.3301 during the NY session, rallying 80 pips as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US beat. It has since held a 1.3360–1.3381 consolidation, and the late-NY push is now retesting the session high at 1.3381, just below the 1.3385 resistance flagged in the market digest. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3381, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3381 session high and 1.3385 opens the 1.3400 round number
Loss of the 1.3360 range low reopens the Asian high at 1.3336 and the 50% retracement of the post-GDP rally near 1.3341
Thin late-NY and Asia-session liquidity makes a break of the range edges less reliable
US ECI Q3 Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Tight 1.3360–1.3380 range below session high, lower highs forming.
Cable rallied about 79 pips during NY hours off the 1.3301 low after the US GDP release, with the BoE-hike bid outweighing the US beat. The move cleared the asian high near 1.3338 and printed a session high at 1.3380. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3360–1.3380 band with a lower high at 1.3372, holding the 23.6% retracement near the range low while RSI(14) cooled to about 47.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3350, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33717, 1.33798
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3360 range low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3350 and the asian high retest near 1.3338
Close above the 1.3372 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 1.3380 session high
Thin post-NY liquidity into the Asia session; US ECI on Fri at 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk
19:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in late NY consolidation · RSI 52 · price 1.33687
NY breakout above Asian range, now a 20-pip range below session high.
Cable whipsawed on the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE release, dipping to 1.3301 before the BoE-hike bid drove a NY rally through the 1.3338 data high and the Asian range to a 1.3380 session high. Since 15:45 UTC price has held a 1.3360–1.3380 band with the range low defended twice. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR has compressed to about 6 pips.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3385
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3360 range low opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% NY rally fib near 1.3350 and the 1.3338 data high
Break above the 1.3380 session high brings key resistance at 1.3385 into play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri, plus Daly and Musalem later, could materially shift this read
Post-breakout range 1.3360–1.3380, above the reclaimed 1.3338 level.
After the US data whipsaw to 1.3301, NY rallied about 80 pips through the Asian high and the 1.3338 breakout level to a 1.3380 session high. The digest frames the BoE-hike bid as outweighing the US GDP beat. Since London close price has held a tight 1.3360–1.3380 range, with the pullback low sitting on EMA20 and retracing only about a quarter of the leg.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3360 pullback low and EMA20 exposes the 1.3338 breakout level
Clearance of the 1.3380 session high puts the 1.3400 round number in play
Thin late-NY and Asia liquidity can stretch the range edges without follow-through
Fri ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Uptrend after NY spike, momentum cooling · RSI 44 · price 1.3364
Tight consolidation below session high, lower highs since 15:45 UTC.
The 12:30 UTC US data whipsaw put in a 1.3301 data low, then NY broke above the 1.3336 Asian high and ran to a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the GDP beat. Late in NY hours price is compressing in a 20-pip band with a lower high at 1.3374, while the 1.3360 range low sits on the 23.6% fib of the rally and EMA20 flattens just beneath.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3336, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3360 range low exposes the 1.3336 Asian high as the next test
Close above the 1.3374 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.3380 session high back in play
Failure of the Asian high shifts focus back to the 1.3301 data low
Fri 12:30 UTC US ECI is the next scheduled driver for this read
19:02 UTC
Impulsive NY rally, now stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.33621
Post-breakout consolidation with lower highs above 1.3360.
The NY rally off the post-data 1.3301 NY low cleared the 1.3336 Asian high and ran to a 1.3380 session high, with the BoE-hike bid absorbing the US GDP beat. Late in the NY session, price has slipped below the ema20 and is sitting on the 1.3360 range floor at the 23.6% retracement, with lower highs printed since the session high.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3336, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3366, 1.3380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3360 range floor exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.3350 and a retest of the 1.3336 Asian high
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3366 and a close above the 1.3380 session high would break the lower-highs sequence
A thin Asia session follows; Friday's US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY impulse · RSI 42 · price 1.33621
The NY rally from the 1.3301 data low cleared the Asian range high and the 1.3338 prior high after the 12:30 UTC data spike, peaking at the 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US GDP beat. Since 16:00 UTC, late NY trade has held a 1.3360–1.3380 band with a lower high at 1.3374. Price now sits on the range floor at the 23.6% level of the rally fib, with RSI(14) cooling to about 42.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3380
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3360 range floor opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3350 and the 1.3338 prior high
Reclaiming the 1.3374 lower high would put the 1.3380 session high back in play
A break back below the 1.3301 data low would undo the NY breakout
Friday's US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled · RSI 55 · price 1.3363
NY breakout above Asian range, now a flat flag 1.3362–1.3380.
Cable whipsawed on the US GDP beat to a 1.3301 NY low, then broke the Asian range (1.3303–1.3336) and the 1.3338 prior high, running to a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed strong US data. Since mid-NY it has held a tight flag, and price is now pressing the 1.3362 flag floor after London close with RSI(14) cooled to ~55.
Support: 1.3362, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3362 flag floor opens a retrace toward the 1.3350 38.2% of the NY rally fib and the 1.3338 prior high
Loss of 1.3338 puts the 1.3301 NY low back in focus and undoes the breakout read
Close above the 1.3380 session high clears the 1.3385 cap and exposes the 1.3400 round number
US ECI (12:30 UTC Fri) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Cable shrugged off the US GDP beat. A 12:30 UTC whipsaw to 1.3301 gave way to a NY-session rally through the 1.3338 prior high, which had capped price twice, and on to a session high at 1.3380. Since London close, price has compressed in a 1.3362–1.3380 band above the 23.6% fib of that leg. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 60s.
Support: 1.3362, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3362 consol low opens a retest of the 1.3338 prior high
Clearance of the 1.3380 session high puts the 1.3400 round number in play
Failure to hold 1.3338 would mark the breakout as a false break
US ECI and Chicago PMI on Fri from 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY impulse · RSI 64 · price 1.33689
Breakout above prior high, now a tight post-breakout range.
The dip after the US GDP/PCE release found demand at the 1.3301 NY low. NY then rallied through the 1.3338 prior high and cleared the 1.3365 cap, with BoE-hike pricing and easing Dec Fed odds absorbing the GDP beat. Since London close, price has held a 1.3362–1.3380 range, above the 23.6% fib of the NY leg, as RSI(14) cools to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3362, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3362 range low opens a retest of the 1.3338 prior high (38.2% fib near 1.3350)
Close above the 1.3380 session high resumes the breakout toward the 1.3400 round number
Loss of 1.3338 would undercut the breakout read and put the 1.3301 NY low back in focus
US ECI (12:30 UTC Fri) and Chicago PMI could materially shift this read
NY impulse leg into a tight late-session range below the session high.
After a London false break of the Asian low, cable's NY leg started at the post-data low of 1.3301 and cleared the Asian high and the 1.3338 prior high, even with the US GDP beat, as the BoE-hike bid held. Late NY has compressed into a 1.3362 range low to 1.3380 session high band, a retrace of less than 23.6% of the NY leg fib, with RSI(14) cooling to 67.
Support: 1.3362, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33798, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3380 session high and 1.3385 resistance opens the 1.3400 round number
Loss of the 1.3362 range low exposes the 38.2% of the NY leg fib near 1.3350, then the 1.3338 prior high
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY breakout above Asian range and prior high, tight consolidation after London close.
Cable reversed the post-GDP dip to the 1.3301 gdp low in NY and cleared both the 1.3338 prior high (Fed and GDP spike tops) and the Asian range, printing a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US beat. Since London close, price has held a tight 1.3362–1.3380 band above the pullback low, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~64.
Support: 1.3362, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3362 pullback low exposes a retest of the 1.3338 prior high
Failure back under 1.3338 would turn the NY breakout into a false break, with the 1.3301 gdp low next
Clearing the 1.3380 session high opens the 1.3400 round number
Fri US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY breakout above prior high, tight consolidation after London close.
The post-GDP dip to 1.3301 (post-gdp low) held above the London low at 1.3296. Cable then rallied through NY hours, clearing the 1.3338 prior high that had capped the window twice, and printed a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US data beat. Since London close, price has compressed in a 1.3362–1.3374 band, with the pullback low sitting near the 23.6% retracement. RSI(14) has cooled to ~70 from above 80.
Support: 1.3362, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3362 pullback low opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.3338 prior high (near the 50% fib at 1.3340)
Acceptance back under the 1.3338 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 1.3380 session high puts the 1.3385 digest resistance and the 1.3400 round number in play
US ECI and Fed's Daly/Musalem on Friday could materially shift this read; no scheduled events in the next 8h
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after NY breakout · RSI 69 · price 1.33689
Cable cleared the 1.3338 breakout level (Fed-day high and today's 12:30 UTC data spike high) during NY hours. It ran from the 1.3301 NY swing low to a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed the US GDP beat. After London close it is consolidating above the 1.3362 pullback low on the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooling to ~69.
Support: 1.3362, 1.33384, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33798, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3362 pullback low exposes the 1.3338 breakout level for a retest
M15 close back below 1.3338 would mark the NY move as a false break, with the 1.3301 NY swing low next
M15 close above the 1.3380 session high opens the 1.3400 round number
Friday's US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
NY breakout above prior high, shallow pullback holding.
Cable dipped to 1.3301 on the US GDP beat, then rallied about 80 pips through NY hours, clearing the 1.3338 prior high (Fed-day spike top) to a 1.3380 session high as the BoE-hike bid absorbed firm US data. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.3363 swing low, below the 1.3385 resistance flagged in the macro digest, with RSI(14) cooled to ~68 from above 80.
Support: 1.3363, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3363 swing low opens a retest of the 1.3338 prior high
1.3338 prior high lines up with the 50% NY rally fib at 1.3340; losing both would turn the move into a false break
Break of the 1.3380 session high and 1.3385 resistance puts the 1.3400 round number in play
Fri 12:30 UTC US ECI (f/c 0.8%) is the next scheduled risk to this structure
NY range break above 1.3338, higher lows off 1.3301.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike at the 1.3338 range top faded to the 1.3301 NY low, and the NY rally that followed broke a range in place since the Fed decision. GBP held firm on BoE-hike pricing despite the US GDP beat. After London close, price is stalling just under the 1.3380 session high, RSI(14) near 72 and cooling, while the 1.3363 pullback low holds.
Support: 1.33627, 1.33384, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33798, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3363 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and opens a retest of the 1.3338 range top
A close back below the 1.3338 range top would mark the breakout as a false break, with the 1.3301 NY low next
A close above the 1.3380 session high opens the 1.3400 round number
The 50% retracement of the NY rally sits at 1.3340, in line with the range top
Fri 12:30 UTC US ECI (f/c 0.8%) is the next scheduled USD risk that could shift this read
NY breakout above the 1.3338 cap, three bars compressing below the session high.
After a choppy London session, the NY rally ran about 80 pips from the 1.3301 post-GDP low. It cleared the 1.3338 breakout level that had capped price since the Fed decision, as the BoE-hike bid outweighed the US GDP beat. RSI(14) sits near 83, and the last three bars are compressing just under the 1.3380 session high, below the 1.3385 key resistance.
Support: 1.33627, 1.33384, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33798, 1.3385, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3385 key resistance clears the cap flagged in the digest and puts the 1.3400 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3363 pullback low exposes the NY rally fib 38.2% near 1.3350
Close back below the 1.3338 breakout level would mark a false break
Liquidity thins after London close; Friday's ECI (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after NY impulse · RSI 72 · price 1.33728
Range break higher, HH/HL chain from 1.3301 NY low.
NY session rally from the 1.3301 low broke the 1.3296–1.3338 intraday range top and cleared 1.3365/1.3385. It printed a 1.3380 session high despite the US GDP beat, as the BoE-hike bid absorbed strong US data. The only pullback so far held at the 1.3363 pullback low, and RSI(14) at 72 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.33627, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33798, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3338 range top would mark the move as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3363 pullback low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 38.2% of the NY rally fib near 1.3350
Acceptance above the 1.3380 session high leaves the 1.3400 round number as the next reference
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem comments could materially shift this read
NY breakout above Asian range and post-Fed high, shallow pullback holding.
The 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE spike was rejected at 1.3338 and dipped to the NY low at 1.3301. Price then ran 76 pips in the NY rally, clearing the Asian range and the post-Fed breakout lvl at 1.3338 to a session high at 1.3377 despite the firm USD backdrop. RSI(14) is cooling from the mid-70s as price consolidates above the 1.3363 pullback low.
Support: 1.33627, 1.33384, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33766, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3363 pullback low exposes the 1.3338 breakout lvl, which aligns with the 50% fib of the NY rally
Return below 1.3338 would mark the move as a false break back into the prior range
Close above the 1.3377 session high opens the 1.3400 round number; thinner liquidity after London close
15:32 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive NY leg pausing · RSI 76 · price 1.33711
24h range 1.3296–1.3338 broken higher; HH/HL chain off the NY low.
After the GDP/PCE releases, the NY session reversed the dip to the 1.3301 NY low. A 76-pip leg followed, breaking the 24h range top at 1.3338 and clearing 1.3365 despite the digest's firm-USD tone. Price is stalling just under the 1.3377 session high with RSI(14) near 76, and the 50% retracement of the NY leg fib lines up with the range top.
Support: 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3377, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3338 range top turns the breakout into a false break
Break and hold above the 1.3377 session high opens the 1.3400 round number
Holding the 38.2% of the NY leg fib near 1.3348 keeps the HH/HL chain from the NY low intact
Nothing scheduled in the next 8h; US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday is the next USD risk to this read
15:17 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive NY leg · RSI 75 · price 1.3372
Breakout above 24h range top, HH/HL chain since 13:15 UTC.
Cable dipped to the 1.3301 NY low after the US GDP/PCE release. It then rallied about 70 pips through the 1.3338 range top, which capped the Fed spike and the 12:30 UTC bar, and through the 1.3365 prior cap to a 1.3373 session high. RSI(14) near 75 is short-term hot but not extreme. The leg is running into the London close with the 1.3400 round number overhead.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3373, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3338 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Holding 1.3365 prior cap as support keeps the HH/HL chain intact; 1.3400 round number is next above the session high
A retrace to the 50–61.8% zone of the ny rally fib (1.3337–1.3328) would test the breakout
US ECI and Chicago PMI Fri 12:30/13:45 UTC, plus Daly/Musalem, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; NY broke above the 24h range top.
NY whipsawed on the US GDP/PCE release. The 12:30 UTC spike to 1.3338 reversed to a 1.3301 NY low, then buyers stepped in for six straight bars. Price broke the 1.3338 range top, which had capped both the Fed-day and data spikes, and printed a session high at 1.3359. RSI(14) ~67 is not stretched; strong resistance at 1.3365 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.3338, 1.3301
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3365
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3338 range top (near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib) would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above strong resistance at 1.3365 extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 1.3301 ny low breaks the rising lows line from the London low and the intraday structure
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, impulsive NY leg · RSI 67 · price 1.33507
Breakout above 24h range top, higher low at 1.3301.
The NY session reversed an initial post-data dip to 1.3301 (NY low). Softer GDP deflator and spending details offset the headline GDP beat, and cable pushed through the Asian range high and the 1.3338 prior high. It now trades at a fresh 24h session high of 1.3352, with RSI(14) near 67 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 1.33384, 1.3326, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33519, 1.3365
What it said to watch
A hold above the 1.3338 prior high keeps the breakout intact. A return below it puts the 50% fib of the NY impulse near 1.3326 in play.
The 1.3365 cap is the next resistance, an area to watch for rejection or break.
A loss of the 1.3301 NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and negates the breakout.
Friday's ECI (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk and could reset this read.
Higher lows at 1.3296/1.3301, 24h range top 1.3338 broken.
The 15:30 broker-time US print (GDP beat, core PCE in line) whipsawed cable from 1.3338 to a 1.3301 NY low. It then cleared the 1.3338 prior high, capped since the FOMC spike, to a 1.3344 session high. The current bar is retesting 1.3338 from above with RSI(14) near 60 and the higher lows trendline intact.
Support: 1.33384, 1.33166, 1.33006
Resistance: 1.33443, 1.3365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3338 prior high would mark a false break and return price to the 1.3296–1.3338 range
1.3350–1.3365 range cap sits overhead; a close above 1.3365 extends the breakout beyond the session high
Loss of the 1.3317 swing low (61.8% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 1.3301 NY low
A break of the 1.3301 NY low would end the higher lows trendline sequence
ECB/Lagarde fallout via EUR-led USD moves could shift this read into the NY afternoon
14:17 UTC
Sideways, two-way swings inside a 24h range · RSI 54 · price 1.33291
Range 1.3296–1.3338, higher low in NY, cap tested a third time.
The GDP beat and in-line PCE spiked cable to the 1.3338 range top, which rejected it, as it did after the Fed. The pair then wicked to a 1.3301 NY low around the ECB window, a higher low above the 1.3296 London low, before pressing back to 1.3330 in the first hours of NY. The London dip below the Asian low reversed, leaving price mid-to-upper range with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.3301, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 range top opens the 1.3350 round number and the 1.3365 cap
Loss of the 1.3301 NY low and then the 1.3296 London low breaks the higher low and the range floor
Lagarde's press conference could jolt USD crosses during NY hours
Fri ECI (12:30 UTC) could break the 1.3296–1.3338 range
Cable spiked into the 1.3338 FOMC high on the US Q3 GDP beat and in-line core PCE. It met rejection there and dropped to a 1.3301 data low before recovering to 1.3324 in the first hours of NY. London's false break below the Asian range to the 1.3296 London low still marks the session low. The 1.3301 dip printed a higher low on the rising lows line, and price sits between the 1.3332 swing high and the 1.3316 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.3316, 1.3301, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3332, 1.3338, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 FOMC high breaks the range top and brings the 1.3350 psych level into view
Failure to hold the 1.3316 swing low (50% of the London leg) puts the 1.3301 data low back in play
A break of the rising lows line and the 1.3296 London low would confirm a lower-low
Lagarde's ECB press conference is running now and can jolt the USD leg against the range edges
Range 1.3296–1.3338, both sides of Asian range swept.
In the first hour of NY, the US data spike (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) ran cable to 1.3338. That matched the post-FOMC high for a double top, and price was sharply rejected. The flush to the ny low at 1.3301 held above the London low at 1.3296, and the bounce stalled at a lower high near 1.3331. Price sits mid-range near the 50% retracement of the London-NY leg, with flat EMAs.
Support: 1.33006, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33313, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 double top invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3301 ny low and 1.3296 london low confirms a lower-low and breaks the rising-lows line
Clearance of the 1.3331 lower high reopens the range top
ECB decision and Lagarde later today could move USD via EUR and shift this read
Range 1.3296–1.3338 with a double rejection at the top.
The US GDP beat and in-line core PCE at the NY open whipsawed cable. Price spiked into the range top at 1.3338, where the post-FOMC high was also rejected, then flushed to a spike low near 1.3300 before being bought back toward 1.3319, around the 50% of the London swing fib. RSI is flat near 51 and price sits on its EMAs, below the 1.3333 London high and above the 1.3296 London low.
Support: 1.33006, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33326, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 range top breaks the double rejection and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3300 spike low exposes the 1.3296 London low; a close below that confirms a range break lower
Close back above the 1.3333 London high puts the range top back in focus
ECB decision and Lagarde press conference later today could shift USD and the cable read
Holding the London swing fib 50% (~1.3317) keeps the post-data reversal contained
Rejection at 1.3338 double top, holding above 1.3314 pullback low.
London dipped below the asian low to a 1.3296 london low, then recovered into the 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP release. That release bar spiked to 1.3338, matching the fed/pce high from the post-Fed move, and reversed fully. Early NY now sits at 1.3317, below the ema20 and on the 50% fib of the London leg, with the 1.3314 pullback low holding so far.
Support: 1.3314, 1.3303, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3314 pullback low exposes the 1.3303 asian low and the 1.3300 handle
M15 close below the 1.3296 london low confirms a lower-low and the double top
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.3320 and a close through the 1.3338 fed/pce high would invalidate the rejection read
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed; the confirmed numbers and the ECB press conference could shift this read in the next hours
The 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP release spiked cable to 1.3338, briefly clearing the Asian high and matching the prior high, before reversing back to 1.3319. That is a false break at the top of the 24h range, after London had already swept below the asian low to a 1.3296 london low and recovered. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of that London rally, just above the 1.3316 swing low, with RSI(14) near 53 and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.33158, 1.33027, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33326, 1.33384
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3316 swing low opens the 61.8% at 1.3312 and the 1.3303 asian low
An M15 close back above the 1.3333 swing high reopens the 1.3338 prior high and the range top
A break of the 1.3296 london low would set a fresh session lower low
The ECB decision and press conference later today could shift the USD leg of this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, testing range top · RSI 71 · price 1.33326
Higher lows from 1.3296 London low; price pressing equal highs at 1.3338.
The London-NY leg off the 1.3296 London low built higher lows into the 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP release. The release bar spiked to 1.3338, matching the post-Fed spike high to make equal highs at the 24h range top, with RSI(14) near 71. Actuals are not yet in the feed, so the reaction is still unconfirmed.
Support: 1.33158, 1.33027, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33384, 1.3350
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3338 equal highs breaks the 24h range top and opens the 1.3350 round number
Loss of the 1.3316 pre-data low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.3303 asian low back in play
A move under the 1.3296 london low would reverse the London-NY leg and the 1.3300 pivot
PCE/GDP actuals still pending and the ECB decision later today could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Intraday higher lows, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 1.33308
24h range 1.3296–1.3338; higher-low chain since London low.
Early London made a false break below the asian low to a london low at 1.3296. Cable then built a higher-low chain, the latest a swing low at 1.3316, and is back under the asian high at 1.3336 and the post-Fed high at 1.3338 as US core PCE/GDP lands. RSI(14) near 62 is not stretched.
Support: 1.33158, 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC land in the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the fed high at 1.3338 breaks the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 1.3316 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the asian low at 1.3303 back in play
A loss of the london low at 1.3296 turns the morning false break into a range break lower
12:17 UTC
Two-way, recovering off London low · RSI 55 · price 1.33208
London swept the Asian low then built higher lows; capped at 1.3333.
London dipped through the Asian low at 1.3303 to a London low of 1.3296, then reclaimed it and climbed to a London high of 1.3333, where sellers rejected the move just under the Asian high. Price is now hovering near 1.3321, just above the 1.3316 swing low and the 38.2% of the London leg fib, with the USD firm into US data.
Support: 1.33158, 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33326, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~15 min) could materially shift this read; ATR of ~7.6 pips understates likely event range
M15 close below the 1.3316 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the asian low at 1.3303
Acceptance above the london high at 1.3333 and the asian high at 1.3336 brings the fed spike hi at 1.3338 into play
Loss of the london low at 1.3296 would mark a fresh lower-low for the 24h window
Post-Fed range 1.3296–1.3338; higher lows since London low, capped at range top.
London briefly dipped through the 1.3303 Asian low to 1.3296 and the move did not hold. Cable then climbed in higher lows to a 1.3333 London high, where it was rejected under the 1.3336–1.3338 Asian/Fed high cluster. Price is at 1.3321 in the London-NY transition, roughly a 38.2% pullback of the London low-to-high leg, as the USD firms into the 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE data.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3296, 1.3285
Resistance: 1.3333, 1.3338
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range top
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 1.3310 puts the 1.3303 asian low and 1.3296 london low back in play
Break below the london low exposes the 1.3285 prior low from yesterday's session
HH/HL chain since London low, testing Asian range top.
Early London dipped below the asian low at 1.3303 to a 1.3296 london low, then reclaimed it. That false break was followed by a clean higher-low climb into the asian high at 1.3336, just under yesterday's 1.3338 fed high. RSI(14) is near 65 with ATR around 7 pips as the market waits on the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE release.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3303, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above 1.3338 fed high breaks the Asian range and the post-FOMC high
Failure to hold the 1.3323 micro low breaks the rising trendline
Loss of 1.3303 asian low reopens the 1.3296 london low
Higher lows off the London low, inside Asian range.
London swept the asian low at 1.33025 and the 1.3300 round number, printing a london low at 1.32957 as soft BoE credit data hit. The pair then reclaimed both and climbed in a stair-step of higher lows. It is now testing the 1.33318 session high, still inside the 1.33025–1.33357 Asian range, with RSI(14) near 60 and the London rally fib intact.
Support: 1.33025, 1.3300, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33318, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~60 min) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.33357 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.33384 fed high
Rejection at the 1.33318 session high and a return below 1.33025 puts the 1.3300 round number and the london low back in play
Hold of the 50% London rally fib near 1.3314 keeps the higher-low sequence intact
11:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 63 · price 1.33287
London false break below Asian low, now retesting London high.
London rejected 1.3331 at the open and pushed through the Asian low to a 1.3296 London low, a false break that was reclaimed within the hour. Since then a steady higher-low chain has carried price back to the London high near 1.3330, with RSI(14) at 63 and soft UK credit data ignored as cable waits on US data.
Support: 1.33207, 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3331 London high puts the 1.3336 Asian high and the 1.3338 Fed high in play
Break below the 1.3321 higher low ends the recovery chain and reopens the 1.3303 Asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the London high would leave price capped inside the Asian range
Inside Asian range after London false break below its low.
The post-Fed spike to 1.3338 faded and Asia held a 1.3303–1.3336 range. London dipped below the Asian low to a 1.3296 session low before recovering to 1.3323, retracing most of the drop from the 1.3331 London high. The lower-highs line from the Asian high still caps price ahead of US data, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3331 London high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.3336 Asian high and 1.3338 Fed high
Loss of the 1.3303 Asian low reopens the 1.3296 session low and negates the false-break read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, about 1.5h out, could materially shift this read
False break of Asian low, higher lows inside 1.3296–1.3336 band.
London pushed through the asian low at 1.3303 to a london low of 1.3296 and reversed. The rebound has retraced roughly 73% of the 1.3331–1.3296 london drop, holding above the 61.8% fib at 1.3317 with higher lows since 09:15 UTC. Cable sits mid-Asian range ahead of US data, and this morning's soft BoE credit figures were ignored.
Support: 1.3317, 1.3303, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3331, 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, under 2h away, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 61.8% fib at 1.3317 exposes the asian low at 1.3303
Failure to hold the london low at 1.3296 and the 1.3300 handle confirms a lower-low
Close above the london high at 1.3331 puts the asian high at 1.3336 and the fed high at 1.3338 in play
10:32 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off London low · RSI 54 · price 1.33217
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336 swept below in London, price reclaimed back mid-range.
London open was rejected at the 1.3330 london high, then dipped through the Asian range low and the 1.3300 round number to a 1.3296 london low around the soft BoE credit data. Buyers stepped in there, and price has retraced roughly 75% of the London drop back to 1.3322, mid-session inside the Asian range and below the 1.3338 fed high.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3330 london high and 1.3336 asian high reopens the 1.3338 fed high
Failure to hold the 1.3300 round number re-exposes the 1.3296 london low and confirms the sweep failed
10:17 UTC
Two-way range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.33179
Post-FOMC range 1.3296–1.3338; London false break below Asian low reclaimed.
Mid-London, the session high at 1.3331 was rejected at the open. Price then made a false break of the Asian low at 1.3303 to 1.3296 before reclaiming it, and now sits at the 61.8% retrace near 1.3317 with RSI(14) around 56, pressing the EMA50. The post-FOMC range below the 1.3338 FOMC high is intact, with the Asian high and London high forming a lower-high sequence as USD holds firm into the US data.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3331, 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3331 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fomc high in play
Failure at the 61.8% retrace keeps the reclaimed 1.3303 asian low in focus
Loss of the 1.3296 london low turns the false break into a range break lower
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; the ECB decision is also due today
London false break below the Asian low, price back inside the Asian range.
The Fed spike high at 1.3338 still caps the window. The Asian range of 1.3303–1.3336 held until London broke the asian low to 1.3296 and reversed back inside, leaving a false break. Price at 1.3311 is retracing about 44% of the London drop under the london lower highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the asian low at 1.3303 negates the false break and exposes the london low at 1.3296, then 1.3290
An M15 close above the london high at 1.3330 breaks the London lower highs and opens the asian high at 1.3336 and the fed spike high at 1.3338
Lower highs from the Fed spike; London broke the Asian low and reclaimed it.
Highs keep stepping lower from the post-Fed fed high at 1.3338. London capped at the london high (1.3331), then broke the Asian low (1.3303) to a london low at 1.3296 before reclaiming it as oil-driven Fed-hike bets lifted USD. Price is at 1.3308, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the 61.8% fib at 1.3317 the first cap.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32957
Resistance: 1.33172, 1.33305, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the london low at 1.3296 turns the Asian-low break from a false break into a lower-low
M15 close above the london high at 1.3331 breaks the lower-high trendline from the fed high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib (1.3317) keeps the reclaim as a retracement inside the downtrend
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.32983
Asian range broken to the downside in early London, lower-high sequence intact.
London open was rejected at the 1.3331 London high, a second lower high under the 1.3336 Asian high. The selloff then cut through the 1.3303 Asian low and the 1.3300 handle to a 1.3296 London low, as oil-driven Fed hike bets kept USD firm into core PCE. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched, and price sits about 1 pip above that London low with the 1.3288 FOMC low next.
Support: 1.32957, 1.32883, 1.32742
Resistance: 1.33025, 1.33305, 1.33357
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3303 (asian low) would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold 1.3288 (fomc low) exposes the 1.3274 prior low
Lower-high trendline from the 1.3336 Asian high caps the structure while price stays under 1.3331 (london high)
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Post-Fed range, lower highs into London · RSI 43 · price 1.33047
Lower highs from 1.3338 against a flat 1.3303 floor inside the Asian range.
London open rejected at 1.3330, a third lower high after the 1.3338 fed high and the 1.3336 asian high. Price is now back on the 1.3303 asian low for a third test as USD firms on oil-driven hike bets, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.3302 breaks the asian low and exposes the 1.3288 fed low
Reclaim of 1.3330 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts 1.3336–1.3338 back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range, flat lows vs descending highs.
Two hours into the London session, GBP/USD remains inside the 1.3303–1.3336 Asian range. The London open push was rejected at 1.3330, the london high, and price slid back to retest the asian low. Highs keep stepping down from the 1.3338 fed high while lows hold flat near 1.3303, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral at 45 as revived Fed-hike pricing keeps USD firm.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3303 asian low breaks the flat base and exposes the 1.3289 fed low
Close above the 1.3330 london high and descending trendline ends the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fed high above
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
London open lifted price to a 1.3331 london high, but it was rejected below the 1.3336 asian high. That leaves lower highs since the Fed-presser spike to 1.3338 and puts price back on the 1.3303 asian low as USD firms ahead of core PCE. RSI(14) near 40, ATR(14) about 7 pips.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3303 asian low breaks the session range and exposes the 1.3288 fed low
Recovery above the 1.3331 london high invalidates the lower-highs read and puts the 1.3336 asian high back in play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.33152
Inside Asian range 1.3302–1.3336, London high rejected at 1.3330.
The early London push from 1.3305 met rejection at the 1.3330 london high, below the 1.3336 asian high, and price is back at 1.3315, near the 61.8% retrace of that leg. Price is still inside the Asian range set after the Fed spike to the 1.3338 fed high. Per the digest, firm USD demand in Asia on oil and haven flows has kept the asian high capped, and the trendline of lower highs is intact.
Support: 1.33121, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33305, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3312 swing low exposes the 1.3302 asian low and the Asian range floor
An M15 close above the 1.3330 london high and the lower-highs trendline brings the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fed high back in play
US Q3 GDP and core PCE (f/c 3.1% y/y) at 12:30 GMT, about 4h out, could materially shift this read
The ECB decision today adds GBP cross-flow risk during the London session
Compressing inside Asian range, London high rejected.
London open pushed to a london high at 1.3331 but the 08:00 bar reversed it straight back to 1.3316, the latest in a chain of lower highs off the post-fed hi at 1.3338. Price is still inside the Asian range (1.33025–1.3336), with the session low at 1.3305 holding as USD stays firm after the hawkish-split Fed hold.
Support: 1.3305, 1.33025, 1.3288
Resistance: 1.3331, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h), plus the ECB decision today, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3336 asian high breaks the compression
Failure to hold the 1.3305 session low and the 1.33025 asian low exposes the 1.3288 fed low
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336; London higher lows off a 1.3305 double bottom.
The Fed's hawkish-split hold lifted GBPUSD to the 1.3338 fed high, and Asia then carved a 1.3303–1.3336 range as USD demand returned. The 06:00 UTC dip held 1.3305, forming a double bottom with the asian low. The London open has since lifted price along a rising trendline of higher lows to a 1.3328 london high, reclaiming about 70% of the Asian decline fib. RSI(14) is at 58, with no extreme.
Support: 1.33174, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33283, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3336 asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.3338 fed high into play
Loss of the 1.3317 london hl undoes the rising trendline and exposes the 1.3303 asian low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, lower highs since 02:00 UTC.
Cable spiked to the post-fed hi at 1.3338 on Warsh's remarks, then chopped inside a 1.3303–1.3336 Asian range as the USD bid returned. Price slid to 1.3305 into 06:00 UTC, but the London open rebounded off the london low at 1.3309. Price now sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian slide, just under the fib 61.8 at 1.3324, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.33086, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33239, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the asian low at 1.3303 and the 1.3300 psych level in play
An M15 close above the fib 61.8 at 1.3324 breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the asian high at 1.3336 and the post-fed hi at 1.3338
Failure to hold the london low at 1.3309 returns price to the bottom of the Asian range
07:32 UTC
Sideways, post-Fed range · RSI 50 · price 1.33207
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, early-Europe dip held above Asian low.
Cable spiked to the 1.3338 Fed high on the FOMC hold, then renewed USD demand in Asia kept it inside a 1.3303–1.3336 Asian range. The pre-London dip stalled at 1.3305, just above the Asian low, and price has recovered to the 50% fib of the 1.3336–1.3305 leg at 1.3320, just under the 1.3326 lower high.
Support: 1.3305, 1.3274
Resistance: 1.3326, 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3305 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes 1.3300, then the 1.3274 prior low
Close above the 1.3326 lower high puts the 1.3336 Asian high and 1.3338 Fed high back in play
London open in ~30 min is the first test of the Asian range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, lower highs from 1.3336 just broken.
The post-FOMC spike to 1.3338 on Warsh's presser faded, and the Asia session built a 1.3303–1.3336 range. Price then slid into the pre-London dip on renewed oil-driven USD demand, which held at 1.3305, just above the asian low. The latest bar closed back above the descending trendline from the asian high but is capped near the ema20 at 1.3318, with ATR(14) compressed to about 5 pips ahead of US PCE.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3288
Resistance: 1.3318, 1.3336
What it said to watch
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back below the descending trendline puts the asian low at 1.3303 back in play
A break of the asian low exposes 1.3300 and the fomc low at 1.3288
A close above the ema20 at 1.3318 opens the path to the asian high at 1.3336
07:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 34 · price 1.33093
Lower highs under a falling trendline, testing the Asian range low.
Cable opens London near the bottom of the 1.3303–1.3336 Asian range. The post-FOMC spike to 1.3338 faded as USD demand returned overnight. A falling trendline from the 02:00 UTC Asian high has capped every bounce, the latest lower high sits at 1.3314, and RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3290
Resistance: 1.3314, 1.3336
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3303 asian low opens the 1.3290 psych level
Reclaim of the falling trendline and the 1.3314 lower high returns price to the middle of the range, with the 1.3336 asian high above
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 37 · price 1.3312
Lower highs from 1.3336, retesting the Asia low inside the post-FOMC band.
Cable has faded from the 1.3336 Asia high, just shy of the 1.3338 post-Warsh spike, as USD demand revived on oil-driven inflation worries. A chain of lower highs has taken price back to the 1.3303–1.3305 asia low, which has been tested twice since midnight UTC, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 37. Price remains inside the post-FOMC 1.3288–1.3338 band ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3304, 1.3288, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3327, 1.3336
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.3304 asia low exposes the 1.3288 fomc low at the base of the post-presser spike
Loss of 1.3288 reopens the 1.3272 prior low from Wednesday's London session
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 1.3318 and the 1.3327 swing high would neutralise the Asian fade; 1.3336 asia high sits above
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 27 · price 1.33069
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.3336, retesting Asian low.
Asia rebounded from an early dip to the 1.33025 Asian low up to the 1.33357 Asian high, then faded on the renewed oil- and geopolitics-driven USD bid. A steady chain of lower highs has carried price back to the Asian low ahead of the London open, with RSI(14) near 27 and the 1.3300 psych level just below.
Support: 1.33025, 1.3300, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33203, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.33025 Asian low and 1.3300 psych extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.32883 Fed low from the post-Fed spike
Reclaim of the fib 50% at 1.33203 breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Asian high 1.33357 and post-Fed hi 1.33384 cap the upside; a close above them flips structure
US core PCE (f/c 3.1% YoY) and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Descending highs from Asian high, testing session low.
The post-Fed spike to the 1.3338 fed high faded. Renewed USD demand at the Asia open drove the pair to an asian low at 1.3303, and it then bounced to an asian high at 1.3336. Since then, descending highs (1.3336 → 1.3328 lower high → 1.3316) have carried price back to a 1.3310 session low, about 65% of the Asian swing retraced, with RSI(14) near 32 and the 1.3300 psych level close below.
Support: 1.3310, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3303 asian low and 1.3300 psych confirms a lower-low for the session
An M15 close above the descending-highs line near 1.3316 and the 1.3328 lower high breaks the drift
London open in ~2h is the first test of the session low
US core PCE at 12:30 UTC (forecast 3.1%) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs since 02:00 UTC · RSI 40 · price 1.3314
Inside Asian range, lower highs pressing toward the range low.
Late Asia session: renewed USD demand has walked GBPUSD from the 1.3336 Asian high to 1.3314. That move printed lower highs under a descending trendline and retraced past 61.8% of the overnight rebound off the 1.3303 Asian low. Price is below both EMAs and ATR(14) is near 4 pips, quiet ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3327, 1.3336
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3303 Asian low and 1.3300 psych level confirms a lower-low and breaks the Asian range
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3327 lower high negates the drift; 1.3336 Asian high is the next cap
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 02:00 UTC Asian high, price at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian swing.
Late Asia session, ahead of the London open. After the post-Fed spike to the 1.3338 fed high and an Asian rebound to the 1.3336 asian high, GBPUSD has slid in a lower-high chain. It now sits at the 1.3316 session low, on the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3303–1.3336 Asian swing, with RSI(14) near 43. Renewed USD demand on oil and Fed-hike bets has capped rallies, consistent with the heavy sterling tone.
Support: 1.33156, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3316 session low exposes the 1.3303 asian low and the 1.3300 psych level
An M15 close above the 1.3328 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the descending sequence
A push through the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fed high would reopen the post-Fed range top
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 3.1%) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower off Asian high · RSI 45 · price 1.33198
Lower highs inside Asian range, holding 61.8% retrace.
The Fed-driven spike to 1.3338 faded. A re-bid USD then took cable to an Asian low of 1.3303, and the rebound stalled at the 1.3336 Asian high. Late Asia, before the London open, price is sliding along a line of lower highs. It sits mid-range at roughly the 50% retrace, with the 1.3316 swing low holding near the 61.8% level and price straddling EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 1.3316, 1.3303
Resistance: 1.3327, 1.3336
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3316 swing low opens a retest of the 1.3303 Asian low and the 1.3300 handle.
Close above the 1.3327 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.3336 Asian high back into view.
London open in ~2h could set its own range outside the Asian range.
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read.
05:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since the Asian peak · RSI 45 · price 1.33197
Mid Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, lower-high grind into 50% retrace.
The Warsh press conference spiked cable to a 1.3338 fed high during NY hours. Asia then flushed to a 1.3303 asian low, rebounded to a 1.3336 asian high just shy of that level, and has since printed a string of lower highs. Price is late in Asia, holding just above the 1.3318 swing low near the 50% retrace of the Asian move, with ATR compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.33175, 1.33025, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33256, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3326 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fed high back in play
A break of the 1.3318 swing low exposes the 61.8% retrace at 1.3315 and the 1.3303 asian low
Loss of the asian low near 1.3300 opens the 1.3288 fed bar low
London open in ~3h; a break of either edge of the Asian range sets the session structure
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 1.3336 asian high, pressing 1.3319 shelf.
Late Asia session: after the oil-driven USD bid knocked cable to the 1.3303 asian low and buyers lifted it back to the 1.3336 asian high, price has faded in a run of lower highs and now sits on the 1.3319 fomc shelf, the 50% retrace of that swing. The 1.3338 fomc high from Warsh's press conference still caps, and ATR near 6 pips points to thin pre-London conditions.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3319 fomc shelf and 61.8% retrace (1.3315) exposes the 1.3303 asian low and 1.3300 psych
Close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3328 lower high neutralises the Asian fade; through the 1.3336 asian high brings the 1.3338 fomc high into play
London open in ~3h may resolve the Asian range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336 intact; price fading off the Asian high toward mid-range.
The post-Fed spike to the 1.3338 fed high capped NY. Asia sold to a 1.3303 asian low on renewed USD demand, rebounded to a 1.3336 asian high, and has since printed lower highs back to the 1.3320 intraday low. That sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian rally fib, with ATR at about 6 pips.
Support: 1.3320, 1.33025, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3320 intraday low exposes the 1.3303 asian low and the 1.3300 handle
Break of the 1.3328 lower high and the trendline reopens the 1.3336 asian high and the 1.3338 fed high
Loss of the 1.3288 fed low would undo the post-Fed range
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Flat after Asia rebound, momentum fading · RSI 53 · price 1.33247
Lower highs compressing onto a flat micro low inside the Asian range.
Late Asia session, about 3h before London open. Price is pinned in a 1.3321–1.3328 band after rebounding from the 1.3303 Asian low. Lower highs off the 1.3336 Asian high sit on a flat micro low near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg, with the post-FOMC fomc high at 1.3338 capping above. RSI(14) near 53 and ATR around 7 pips show no momentum signal and no breakout in play.
Support: 1.33214, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33275, 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3321 micro low opens the 50% retrace near 1.3319, then the 1.3303 asian low and 1.3300 handle
M15 close above the lower-high trendline near 1.3328 puts the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fomc high back in focus
London open is likely to resolve the compression, and the asian range is the reference for either break
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Sideways, post-Fed range holding · RSI 54 · price 1.3324
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, lower highs compressing above 1.3321.
Late Asia session is holding mid-range below the 1.3338 fed high set during Warsh's press conference. Oil-driven USD demand drove a drop to the 1.3303 asian low that was fully rejected. Price is now printing lower highs off the 1.3336 asian high and compressing on the 1.3321 micro floor near the 38.2% of the asian swing, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3303, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3321 micro floor exposes the 1.3303 asian low and the 1.3300 round number
London open break above the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fed high invalidates the lower highs read
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Post-Fed bounce stalling, flat in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.33235
Lower highs under 1.3336 Asian high, holding above 1.3319 swing low.
The split-vote Fed hold spiked the pair to a 1.33384 FOMC high during Warsh's press conference. Early Asia saw an oil-driven USD bid drop it to a 1.33025 Asian low, which was bought back to a 1.33357 Asian high. Price is now compressing in lower highs on the 38.2% fib near 1.3323, pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.33384 FOMC high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the post-Fed range top
Failure to hold the 1.3319 swing low exposes the 1.33025 Asian low and the 1.3300 handle
London open in ~3-4h is the first test of the Asian range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336 below the FOMC high, higher low at 1.3321.
The Fed's hawkish-split hold lifted the pair to an FOMC high at 1.3338. The early-Asia dip on oil-driven USD demand held the asian low at 1.3303, just above the 1.3300 handle. The rebound stalled at an asian high of 1.3336, and price is now compressing around 1.3326 above a higher low at 1.3321, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.33214, 1.33153, 1.33027
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3321 higher low exposes the fib 61.8 at 1.3315
Break above the 1.3336 asian high and the 1.3338 fomc high clears the post-Fed range top
Loss of the 1.3303 asian low puts the 1.3300 handle in play
London open in ~4h and US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Sideways, post-FOMC range · RSI 48 · price 1.33225
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336, small lower highs late Asia.
Late Asia session: the early dip to the 1.3303 asian low on renewed USD demand was reclaimed, with price pushing back to the 1.3336 asian high, under the 1.3338 fomc high from Warsh's press conference. Price is now drifting at 1.3322, near the 38.2% of the Asian swing, after buyers held the 1.3319 asia pivot twice.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33027
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3319 asia pivot exposes the 1.3303 asian low and the 1.3300 handle
A close above the 1.3336 asian high and 1.3338 fomc high breaks the post-FOMC range
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
The FOMC press-conference spike to the 1.3338 fomc high has capped the session. Today's 1.3336 asia high is a third lower high below it. Renewed USD demand early in the Asia session pushed price to the 1.3303 asia low, just above the 1.3300 handle. The rebound has given back about a third, holding the 1.3319 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR around 8.5 pips.
Support: 1.3319, 1.3303
Resistance: 1.3336, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3319 swing low would return focus to the 1.3303 asia low and the 1.3300 handle
Close above the 1.3336 asia high and the 1.3338 fomc high would break the lower-highs line
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
London open could resolve the Asian range in either direction
Post-Fed range 1.3319–1.3338; Asia lower high under fed high.
The post-FOMC press-conference spike set the fed high at 1.3338. Early Asia USD demand drove a dip to the 1.3303 asia low, but the move below the post-Fed range was fully reclaimed; the 1.3336 asia high then printed a lower high. Price sits mid Asian range near 1.3326 above the 1.3319 swing low, which lines up with the 50% fib of the Asia rebound, and RSI(14) is neutral at 49.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3319 swing low breaks the Asia rising support and exposes the 1.3303 asia low and 1.3300 psych
Close above the 1.3336 asia high and the 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range to the upside
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 3.1% YoY) could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.3303–1.3336 capped just below the FOMC high.
The Fed hold and Warsh presser spiked the pair to the 1.3338 FOMC high. Renewed USD demand early in the Asia session pulled it back to the 1.3303 Asian low, and the rebound has since printed a higher low at 1.3319. Price is now at 1.3328, testing the 1.3336 Asian high just under the FOMC high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 FOMC high breaks the post-Fed range top
Loss of the 1.3319 higher low returns focus to the 1.3303 Asian low and 1.3300 psych
London open in ~4.5h is likely to set the session range around the Asian high/low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asian low, pressing the range top.
Renewed USD demand early in the Asia session drove the dip to the 1.33027 Asian low, just above 1.3300. Price then printed a higher low at 1.3319 and is retesting the 1.33357 Asian high, just under the 1.33384 FOMC high that caps the range in place since Warsh's press conference. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.3319, 1.33027
Resistance: 1.33357, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.33384 FOMC high breaks the post-Fed range top
Failure to hold the 1.3319 higher low breaks the Asian higher-low line and puts the 1.33027 Asian low back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Sideways after post-Fed spike · RSI 51 · price 1.33217
Post-Fed range 1.3303–1.3338, Asia high 1.3333 rejected.
The Fed press-conference spike to 1.3338 has settled into a range. In the Asia session, price broke below the 1.3319 pre-dip base to an Asia low of 1.3303, fully retraced, then stalled at the 1.3333 Asia high just under the Fed spike high. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of that Asia leg and on EMA20, with RSI(14) flat near 51 as the USD firms in Asia.
Support: 1.33186, 1.33025, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33327, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3338 (Fed spike high) breaks the post-Fed range
Loss of the 1.3319 pre-dip base puts the 1.3303 Asia low and the 1.3300 round number back in focus
Repeat rejection at the 1.3333 Asia high would mark a lower high inside the range
US core PCE and GDP in ~11h could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Post-Fed range, recovering from Asia dip · RSI 57 · price 1.33305
Asia false break below post-Fed range low, now back at range top.
Early in the Asia session, price broke below the 1.3315 post-Fed low and reached the 1.3303 Asia low, near the 50% retrace of the London low–Fed high fib. It then fully recovered to the 1.3333 Asia high, with RSI(14) at 57 and price back above EMA20/50. The 1.3338 Fed high, set as the dollar softened on Warsh's press conference, still caps the post-Fed range.
Support: 1.33147, 1.33025
Resistance: 1.33327, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3338 fed high breaks the post-Fed range
Rejection at the 1.3333 asia high keeps price inside the post-Fed range
A move back below the 1.3315 post-fed low reopens the 1.3303 asia low and the 1.3300 handle
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Range 1.3303–1.3338 since the Fed; Asian dip rejected.
GBP/USD is holding the post-Fed range in the early Asia session. The daily-open drop from the 1.3330 asia high briefly broke the range floor near 1.3315 to a 1.3303 asia low, close to the 50% retrace of the fed leg fib, and was rejected. Price is back at the ema20 near 1.3320, RSI(14) neutral at 47, with USD still soft after the Fed hold.
Support: 1.3303, 1.3288, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3330, 1.3338
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3303 asia low reopens the 1.3288 fomc low, then the 1.3272 day low
Close above the 1.3330 asia high puts the 1.3338 post-fed hi back in play
US core PCE in ~11h (f/c 3.1% y/y) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range floor broken in Asia, bounce off 1.3300 psych.
The dovish-read Fed hold lifted the pair from the 1.3272 day low to a 1.3338 fed high, then NY closed in a 1.3315–1.3338 range. Early Asia broke the range floor and dropped to a 1.3303 asia low just above the 1.3300 psych. Price has bounced back to 1.3311, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the day's move, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 7.5 pips.
Support: 1.33025, 1.32883, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33147, 1.3330, 1.33384
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3303 asia low and the 1.3300 psych exposes the 1.3288 fed bar low and the 1.3272 day low
An M15 close back above the 1.3315 range floor reopens the 1.3330 asia high and the 1.3338 fed high
US core PCE at Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h, f/c 3.1% y/y) could materially shift this read
Overnight 1.3319–1.3330 range broken lower in early Asia; price testing 1.3300.
Early Asia session broke the overnight 1.3319–1.3330 range, a 25-pip drop to 1.3303 that erased most of the post-Fed bounce triggered by the less-hawkish-than-feared Warsh read. Price sits on the 1.3300 round number, just under the 50% fib of the 1.3272–1.3338 leg, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32883, 1.32723
Resistance: 1.33186, 1.3330, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3300 round number opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3296 and the Fed bar low at 1.3288
Failure at the 1.3272 swing low would take out the window floor
Recovery back above the 1.3319 range low marks the drop as a false break, with the range high at 1.3330 and the Fed high at 1.3338 overhead
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Post-Fed range, slipping to range floor · RSI 38 · price 1.33138
1.3315–1.3338 range after Fed spike; floor probed early Asia session.
The USD dip after the Fed's less-hawkish-than-feared hold drove a spike to the 1.3338 Fed high, and a 1.3315–1.3338 range held into NY close. After the 1.3330 late high capped twice, the first bar of the Asia session dropped 13 pips to probe the range floor, sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the London low–Fed high leg, just above EMA50. RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32883
Resistance: 1.33147, 1.3330, 1.33384
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 1.3315 range floor expose the 1.3300 round number, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace
A move back above the 1.3330 late high returns the 1.3338 Fed high to play
Failure to hold the 1.3288 Fed low would erase most of the post-Fed move
US core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.1% y/y) could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range held above the post-Fed pullback low.
The dovish-read Fed hold lifted the pair from 1.3300 to a fed high of 1.3338, clearing the London-NY range. The pullback stalled at the post-fed low of 1.3315, just above the 38.2% retrace of the London low–Fed high move. Early Asia session is compressing in a 12-pip 1.3318–1.3330 band above EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 1.33179, 1.33147, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3330, 1.33384
What it said to watch
A break of the asian low at 1.3318 exposes the post-fed low at 1.3315 and the 38.2% fib
A close back below the 1.3300 round number unwinds the post-Fed breakout
The asian high at 1.3330, then the fed high at 1.3338, cap the session; a close above the fed high extends the post-Fed leg
US core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~12.5h) could materially shift this read