Lower highs / lower lows within descending channel.
NZDUSD has trended lower for four months inside a descending channel, price holding below a falling EMD50 since the late-April rejection near 0.5994. The pair based twice around 0.5630 — a seven-month low — and rebounded this week as US PCE cooled and ANZ Business Confidence surged, lifting it back toward 0.5690. The move so far is USD softness rather than NZD strength, with 0.5700 the channel cap overhead.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.5700
What it said to watch
D1 close above 0.5700 channel top would break the descending-channel structure
Failure to hold 0.5630 confirms a fresh lower-low toward 0.5620 channel base
US NFP and RBNZ decision (Jul 8) are imminent risks that could reset this read
NZDUSD has been in a multi-month downtrend since the early-Feb high near 0.6005, grinding lower inside a descending channel and printing a seven-month low at 0.5626 in late June. Price has since ticked back to 0.5686 as a soft US NFP print (57K vs 110K) knocked the dollar, but the bounce remains below EMA20 and EMA50 with the channel structure intact. RSI is recovering off its lows near the mid-40s, reflecting a corrective bounce rather than a trend shift.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.5700
What it said to watch
Daily close above 0.5700 channel top would challenge the downtrend read
Failure to hold 0.5620-0.5626 confirms a fresh lower low and channel-base break
RBNZ decision Jul 8 and US ISM Services could materially shift this read