Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, recent corrective bounce fading · RSI 45 · price 0.58669
Lower highs since Feb peak, ranging since April.
NZDUSD has been carving lower highs since the early February peak at 0.6080, with a sharp sell-off into late March bottoming at 0.5681 before a corrective bounce. The pair has spent the last six weeks oscillating in a 0.5835–0.5994 range, and this week's rejection from the 0.5994 swing high has dropped price back to the range mid. RSI at 45 reflects the indecision; EMA20 and EMA50 are both flat above price, capping the recent bounce.
Support: 0.5835, 0.5681
Resistance: 0.5994, 0.6048, 0.6080
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 0.5835 swing low confirms range break and resumption of the prior downtrend
- Daily close above 0.5994 swing high opens path to the 0.6048 prior high
- Sustained hold above EMA50 would shift the multi-week structure
16:26 UTC
Downtrend, attempting base · RSI 45 · price 0.5870
Lower highs since January, basing near 0.5700.
NZDUSD has been in a steady downtrend since late January, printing lower highs from 0.6080 down through 0.5990 and most recently rejecting at 0.5990 last week. Price carved a double bottom around 0.5680–0.5700 in mid-March and has spent two months oscillating between that base and the 0.5900 area where EMA(50) caps. This week's failure at 0.5990 and slide back to 0.5870 keeps the broader lower-high structure intact, with RSI cycling mid-range.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5680, 0.5640
Resistance: 0.5900, 0.5990, 0.6080
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 0.5990 May high would break the lower-high sequence
- Loss of 0.5750 May low reopens the 0.5680 double bottom
- Middle East risk headlines remain a wildcard for NZD as a risk proxy