Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 51 · price 0.56999
Lower highs into a mid-June base, recovering toward 0.5700 pivot.
Multi-month downtrend from the early-May 0.5994 high carried price to a mid-June base around 0.5626, where demand stepped in over several sessions. The Kiwi has since rounded higher, reclaiming EMA20 and pressing the 0.5700 pivot, but it remains capped below a falling EMA50 near 0.5775 — the softer US NFP print (57K vs 110K) helped lift risk currencies late last week before commodity weakness faded the move. Structure stays corrective within the larger downtrend until 0.5725 gives way.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5725, 0.5775
What it said to watch
- RBNZ rate decision + statement Wed 02:00 UTC could materially shift this read; guidance is the swing factor
- Daily close above 0.5725 opens the path toward the 0.5775 ema50
- Failure to hold the 0.5680 pivot reopens the 0.5626 june low
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off base · RSI 53 · price 0.56999
Lower highs since March, base near 0.5630.
NZDUSD has trended lower since the early-March rejection near 0.5990, printing a chain of lower highs into a base around 0.5630 through mid-June where buyers stepped in on three separate touches. The last two weeks have recovered to 0.5700, with price reclaiming the EMA20 but still capped below a falling EMA50, keeping the multi-month structure heavy. RBNZ's rate decision tomorrow is the dominant driver — a 25bp hike is largely priced, so forward guidance is the swing factor.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5630, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5727, 0.5750
What it said to watch
- RBNZ decision Wed 02:00 UTC + guidance — key catalyst that can redefine this read
- Daily close above 0.5727 then 0.5750 would break the descending resistance
- Failure to hold 0.5680 reopens the 0.5630 base
- Loss of 0.5630 confirms a fresh lower low