NZDUSD has been range-bound between roughly 0.5486 and 0.6120 across the window, with a double top near 0.61 (June 2025 and January 2026 peaks) capping the upside. Price has since rolled back into the lower half of the range and sits below both the W1 EMA20 and EMA50, with the hawkish RBNZ hike offering only modest support that stalled around 0.58. RSI(14) is mid-40s — no macro extreme, consistent with a reversion rather than a fresh trend.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5486
Resistance: 0.5825, 0.6120
What it said to watch
Weekly close above 0.5825 prior high would reopen the range top
Weekly close below 0.5626 recent low exposes the 0.5486 range floor
NZDUSD has been range-bound between the 2025 low near 0.5486 and a 0.6092/0.612 range high since Q2 2025, with the July-2025 and Jan-2026 peaks forming a double top around 0.61. Price now sits in the lower half at 0.5700, below both weekly EMAs after rolling over from the Jan high through a series of lower highs. The RBNZ hawkish tightening regime is a structural NZD support, but oil terms-of-trade drag and a range-bound USD have kept the pair capped short of the 0.5794 three-week high.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5486
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5850, 0.6092
What it said to watch
Weekly close back above the 0.5850 ema zone would neutralise the recent downside lean
A sustained break below the 0.5606 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 0.5486 2025 low
US CPI (Tue) is the key near-term macro swing for USD and this pair