22:26 UTC
Downtrend, fresh 19-month low · RSI 36 · price 0.55212
Lower highs and lower lows since the 21 Aug peak; price below falling EMA20 and EMA50.
A three-month downtrend runs from the 0.5988 high on 21 Aug, with lower highs at 0.5710 (21 Oct) and 0.5650 (10 Nov). Price sits below a falling EMA(50) and a falling EMA(20). Monday's election-driven pop stalled at that lower high, and the hot US CPI print reversed it. The week closed at the session low of 0.5521, a new low just under the 0.5527 prior low from NFP day, despite a slightly soft headline PPI. RSI at 36.3 is holding above its 32.9 reading at that prior low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has expanded from about 40 to 49 pips.
Support: 0.55208, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55274, 0.56048, 0.56495
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 0.5527 prior low would turn this break into a false break
- Failure to hold the 0.5500 round number extends the lower-low sequence
- Recovery above ema20 (0.5605) and the lower highs line near 0.5650 needed to challenge the downtrend; the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Nov decline sits near 0.5699
- Fed Chair Warsh Mon 16 Nov and RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tue 17 Nov could materially shift this read