NZDUSD remains in a multi-month downtrend, trading below a falling EM(50) on D1 with price down near 0.5770. The mid-May bounce to 0.5994 marked a lower high, and the past two weeks have rolled back over as a hawkish Warsh-led Fed and falling oil eroded the RBNZ rate-hike premium that had supported the Kiwi. The 0.5850-0.5864 zone has repeatedly capped rallies, and the 0.5800 pivot has now given way to the downside.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5686
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5864, 0.5994
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5752 opens the path back toward the 0.5686 april low
A weekly close back above the 0.5800 pivot is needed to ease the downside pressure
US PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) are the key USD catalysts that could shift this read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend resuming within broad range · RSI 41 · price 0.5772
Lower highs since May, testing range floor.
NZDUSD has traded a broad 0.5680-0.5994 range across the last four months, and the May high near 0.5994 has set off a chain of lower highs, with the 0.5850-0.5864 zone repeatedly rejected. A hawkish Warsh-led Fed and a firm dollar have pinned the Kiwi back below the 0.5800 pivot this week, and the last two sessions broke lower to retest the 0.5752 recent low. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI in the low-40s — no oversold extreme yet.
Support: 0.5752, 0.5686
Resistance: 0.5800, 0.5864, 0.5994
What it said to watch
D1 close below 0.5752 opens the april low at 0.5686
Reclaim of the 0.5800 pivot needed to ease downside pressure
0.5850-0.5864 rejection zone caps any rebound until cleanly broken
S&P Global PMIs (Jun 23) and Core PCE (Jun 25) are the key USD catalysts