NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 28 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY spike rejection · RSI 44 · price 0.5662
Lower highs from 0.5687, holding 0.5657 swing low.
The NY-session spike to the 0.5687 NY high came on the US-China truce extension and was fully rejected, as hawkish Fed commentary and Iran tension capped gains. The pair faded back through the Asian high and printed a 0.5657 swing low after the daily rollover. The early Asia session bounce stalled at the 0.5669 session high, near the 38.2% of the NY fade fib, leaving price at 0.5662 below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5674, 0.5687
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5657 swing low exposes the 0.5653 London low and the 0.5649 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5669 session high and the lower-high trendline from the NY high reopens the 0.5674 Asian high
RBA decision today (expected hike to 4.60%) could move the kiwi via AUD/NZD during the Asia session
The NY-session spike high at 0.5687 on the US-China truce headlines was rejected, and a string of lower highs followed into the close as hawkish Fed pricing capped the pair. Demand stepped in at the rollover low of 0.5657, and early Asia is now pinned near 0.5665, below the 0.5669 session high, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56736, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 session high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5674 ny pivot
Failure to hold the 0.5657 rollover low exposes the 0.5653 london low
A push back toward the 0.5687 spike high would need to clear the lower-highs line first
RBA decision later in the Asia session (hike to 4.60% expected) could jolt kiwi via AUD/NZD
23:17 UTC
Flat, drifting lower after NY spike faded · RSI 45 · price 0.56654
Lower highs since 0.5684, tight 0.5657–0.5669 range in early Asia.
The NY session spike to the 0.5687 day high on the US-China truce headlines met rejection twice near 0.5684 and fully unwound. A thin post-rollover dip to the 0.5657 rollover low was bought back, and price now sits in a 0.5657–0.5669 early-Asia range under the lower-high line, near the 78.6% of the NY spike fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR is a compressed ~3.8 pips, both below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.56491
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5657 rollover low exposes the 0.5653 london low and the 0.5649 day low
Break above the 0.5669 bounce high and the lower-high line reopens the 0.5674 asia high, with the 0.5687 day high above
RBA decision later in the Asia session (hike to 4.60% expected) could widen the range via AUD/NZD flows
23:03 UTC
Intraday range, fading from NY spike · RSI 45 · price 0.56662
Lower highs since 0.5687 spike high; compressing at 61.8% fib.
The US-China truce headline drove an NY spike to the 0.5687 spike high. It was rejected and has faded to 0.5666, a 61.8% retrace of the London low-to-spike move, as firm USD capped gains. Early Tuesday Asia session is compressing at 0.5666–0.5669 after a thin-liquidity dip to the 0.5657 rollover low was bought back.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.56491
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.5657 rollover low exposes the 0.5653 london low and 0.5649 day low, near the 0.5650 June low
Recovery above the 0.5674 asian high reopens the 0.5687 spike high
RBA decision Sep 29 during the Asia session could shift kiwi via the AUD/NZD cross
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 78.6% level at 0.5660
22:47 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 46 · price 0.56665
Lower highs from 0.5687 NY high; rollover dip reclaimed, compressing near 0.5666.
A NY-hours spike to the 0.5687 NY high, tied to the US-China truce extension, broke the Asia high at 0.5674 and then failed back below it. That rejection left a string of lower highs into the NY close. The dip to the 0.5657 rollover low was reclaimed, and price now sits flat at EMA20 near 0.5666 in thin early Asia, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) ~46.
Support: 0.56642, 0.56567, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56687, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5669 session high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5674 Asia high
Loss of the 0.5664 late-NY low exposes the 0.5657 rollover low, then the 0.5653 London low
RBA decision Sep 29, then Tue JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Range 0.5653–0.5687, double low at 0.5657 holding.
The NY session spiked to 0.5687 on the Iran sanctions-relief headline that knocked the USD. That high was rejected and price faded into the rollover, where a dip to 0.5657 matched the NY double low. Early Asia has recovered to the 61.8% fib of the NY leg near 0.5669, with price hugging EMA20/50 and RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5674, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high at 0.5674 reopens the NY spike high at 0.5687
Failure at the 0.5657 double low exposes the London low at 0.5653 and the June low at 0.5650
RBA decision Sep 29 during Asia hours could move the kiwi through the AUD/NZD cross
US JOLTS and Tuesday's Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read later in the day
Failed NY spike above Asian high, fully retraced; rebound from rollover low back into mid-range.
The NY-hours spike to the 0.5687 day high on the Iran sanctions-relief headlines could not hold above the 0.5674 Asian high. It was fully retraced into a thin rollover low at 0.5657. Early Asia has lifted price back to the 61.8% of that spike fib near 0.5669, just under the 0.5670 round number, with RSI(14) neutral around 49 and price hugging both EMAs.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5674, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high reopens the 0.5687 day high
Loss of the 0.5657 rollover low exposes the 0.5653 london low and the 0.5650 June-low zone
RBA decision (Sep 29) during the Asia session could jolt the kiwi via AUD/NZD flows
22:03 UTC
Flat after failed NY spike, sitting at pre-spike base · RSI 43 · price 0.56654
NY spike to 0.5687 fully retraced; lower highs since, rollover low 0.5657 holding.
The NY-hours spike to the 0.5687 spike high, on the US-China truce extension, cleared the 0.5674 Asian high but was fully unwound. Price is back at 0.5665, the 61.8% of the London low 0.5653 to spike high leg. The thin rollover dip to the 0.5657 rollover low was bought, and early Asia is trading just under the 0.5670 psych level with both EMAs flat overhead.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5657 rollover low exposes the 0.5653 london low and the 0.5649 monday low near the 0.5650 June low
M15 close above the 0.5670 psych level reopens the 0.5674 Asian high; the 0.5687 spike high caps the day
RBA decision during Tuesday's Asia session could jolt kiwi via the AUD/NZD cross
Tuesday's JOLTS and the Fed speaker slate later in the day could shift this read
21:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 31 · price 0.56577
Failed NY spike, lower highs, gapped lower at rollover.
The NY spike to 0.5687 on US-China truce headlines broke the Asia high at 0.5674, then failed and was rejected. Price carved lower highs back through the late NY base at 0.5664 and gapped lower at rollover to a 0.5657 session low. Early Asia session now, RSI(14) near 31, just above the London low at 0.5653, with the fib 50% of the spike decline at 0.5672 overhead.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56642, 0.5670, 0.56739
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5653 London low exposes the 0.5649 Asia low
Recovery above the 0.5664 late NY base and the 0.5670 round number reopens the fib 50% at 0.5672
Asia high at 0.5674 marks the top of the false break; a close back above it negates the lower-high sequence
Post-rollover spread widening makes the 0.5657 session low less reliable until Asia liquidity builds
RBA decision on Sep 29 could shift NZD crosses and this read
21:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off NY spike · RSI 38 · price 0.56583
Lower highs from 0.5684, retesting NY low.
The US-China truce extension headline spiked NZDUSD to the 0.5687 spike high in NY. The move faded into a string of lower highs as firm USD and yields reasserted. The rollover then gapped lower from the 0.5665 gap close, and the new day is retesting the 0.5657 NY low below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.56567, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56652, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5653 london low exposes the 0.5649 asian low, the day low
A reclaim of the 0.5665 gap close breaks the lower highs line; the 0.5674 asian high is the next reference above
A move back above the 0.5687 spike high would negate the post-headline fade
RBA decision Sep 29 during Asia session could move kiwi crosses; thin rollover liquidity is distorting early bars
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak Tuesday could shift the USD leg
21:17 UTC
Range, fading after NY spike · RSI 44 · price 0.5667
False break above Asian high, lower highs back into range.
The US-China truce extension lifted the pair through the Asian high at 0.5674 to a session high of 0.5687 in NY, but the spike was rejected and price has given back about two-thirds of the move, now just under the 61.8% fib. Post-NY trade is thin: a rollover gap briefly tagged 0.5659 and was bought back, and price is holding just above the late NY low at 0.5664, below ema20, with M15 ranges compressed to about 3-4 pips.
Support: 0.5664, 0.5657, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5674 Asian high reopens the false-break zone toward the 0.5687 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5664 late NY low exposes the 0.5657 NY swing low, then the 0.5653 London low
RBA decision on Sep 29 in the Asia session could move kiwi crosses and shift this read
21:06 UTC
Intraday fade after NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 0.56652
Lower highs since 0.5687 spike high; back at pre-spike base near 0.5665.
NY session spiked through the 0.5674 Asia high to a 0.5687 spike high, with the US-China truce extension lifting the kiwi. Upside was capped by the Fed-hike USD bid, and the move has faded on lower highs into late NY hours. Price sits at the 0.5664 late NY low, near the 78.6% fib of the 0.5657–0.5687 leg, with the breakout fully retraced.
Support: 0.56642, 0.56569, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56698, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5664 late NY low exposes the 0.5657 swing low, then the 0.5653 London low
Close above the 0.5670 lower high breaks the NY fade line and reopens the 0.5674 Asia high
RBA decision during Tuesday's Asia session could move NZD via AUD/NZD flows
Lower highs after failed spike, basing near 0.5665.
The NY-session spike to the 0.5687 spike high on the Iran sanctions-relief headline has been fully unwound. A chain of lower highs took price back to 0.5666, below both EMAs and inside Monday's Asian range (0.5649–0.5674). Price is holding the 0.5665 late low into the NY close, between the 61.8% and 78.6% of the spike leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56569, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56698, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5665 late low exposes the 0.5657 swing low, then the 0.5653 london low
M15 close above the 0.5670 lower high ends the post-spike lower-high chain; the 0.5674 asian high is next
A move back through the 0.5687 spike high would negate the false-break read
RBA decision Tue (hike to 4.60% expected) during the Asia session could move NZD via AUD/NZD
Lower highs since the 0.5687 spike high, price back inside the 0.5653–0.5674 range.
The NY-session spike on the US-China truce extension cleared the asian high and printed a spike high at 0.5687. The spike retest at 0.5684 then failed, and the move has since retraced about 70% of the ny low to spike high leg, with a descending lower-highs line capping price near 0.5666. Price is holding just above the late ny low at 0.5664 into the Asia handover, below both EMAs and with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56569, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.56843, 0.56874
What it said to watch
A close below the late ny low at 0.5664 opens the ny low at 0.5657 and the london low at 0.5653
A close back above the asian high at 0.5674 breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the false break read
A move above the spike retest at 0.5684 puts the spike high at 0.5687 back in play
The RBA decision on Tuesday (hike to 4.60% expected) could move NZD crosses and add volatility in Asia hours
20:17 UTC
Intraday range, fading from NY spike · RSI 40 · price 0.56656
Lower highs since the 17:00 UTC spike, inside the 0.5649–0.5687 day range.
Iran sanctions-relief headlines drove a 16:15 UTC NY spike to the 0.5687 spike high that failed back below the 0.5674 Asia high. The late-NY fade has printed lower highs along a fade line and retraced past the NY spike fib 61.8 at 0.5669, leaving price at the fade low near 0.5665.
Support: 0.56645, 0.56569, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56686, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5674 Asia high breaks the fade line and neutralises the false break
Failure to hold the 0.5657 NY low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5649 Asia low
A tick above the fade low 0.5665 back through the fib 61.8 at 0.5669 would stall the fade
RBA decision Tue (hike to 4.60% expected) could move NZD via AUD/NZD during Asia hours
Failed break above Asian high, lower highs back into prior range.
The NY-session spike on Iran sanctions-relief headlines took the pair through the 0.56739 Asian high to the 0.56874 spike high, but the break failed. A lower-highs sequence has since dragged price back to the 61.8% level of the NY spike fib, where twin lows at 0.56664 are holding late in NY. Price sits just under the 0.5670 psych level and EMA20, flat around EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.56664, 0.56569, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5670 psych and the lower-highs trendline would ease the fade read, with the 0.56739 Asian high the next cap
A break of the 0.56664 twin lows exposes the 0.56569 NY low, then the 0.56531 London low
Only a reclaim of the 0.56874 spike high would revive the upside break
RBA decision in Tuesday's Asia session and Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.5687 session high, back inside the Asian range.
Late in the NY session, the Iran sanctions-relief headline that trimmed the USD bid produced a spike through the 0.5674 prior high (the Asian range top) to a 0.5687 session high. That high was rejected twice near 0.5684, and the spike has since unwound to a 0.5666 swing low. Price is holding the 61.8% retrace of the spike near 0.5669, capped by ema20 at 0.5671, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56664, 0.56642, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56706, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5666 swing low exposes the 0.5664 spike base and then the 0.5657 ny low
A recovery above ema20 and the 0.5674 prior high reopens the 0.5687 session high
Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tuesday, plus the RBA decision, could reset the range
19:32 UTC
Spike faded, drifting lower after London close · RSI 49 · price 0.56689
False break above Asian high, lower highs back inside the Asian range.
The NY session spike on Iran sanctions-relief headlines, which trimmed the USD bid, cleared the 0.5674 Asian high to 0.5687 but failed. Price has since bled back through a string of lower highs to the 61.8% fib of the NY spike near 0.5669. The late NY low at 0.5666 is holding as price presses the descending line, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5657, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5684, 0.5687
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5674 Asian high puts the 0.5684 lower high and 0.5687 spike high back in play
Break of the 0.5666 late NY low exposes the 0.5657 NY swing low and the 0.5653 London low
Failure to clear the descending line keeps the lower-high sequence intact
RBA decision in Tuesday's Asia session could jolt the kiwi and reshape the Asian range
False break above Asian high, lower highs off 0.5684.
Kiwi spiked to a 0.5687 spike high at 16:15 UTC as Iran sanctions-relief reports trimmed the dollar, but a second push stalled at 0.5684. It has since faded in lower highs back below the 0.5674 Asian high, retracing about 69% of the 0.5657 swing low to spike-high leg. Late in the NY session price sits back inside the day's 0.5653–0.5674 range and under both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56739, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5674 Asian high negates the false-break read; 0.5670 round number is the first cap
Failure to hold the 0.5657 swing low exposes the 0.5653 London low
RBA decision during Tuesday's Asia session and further US-Iran sanctions headlines could jolt the session range
False break above Asian high, lower highs back into range.
Mid-NY spike to a 0.56874 session high came on the US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines that knocked oil and trimmed the USD bid. It was sold. A lower high at 0.56843 was followed by a slide back below the 0.56739 Asian high, and price is now sitting on the 61.8 fib at 0.5668 in thin post-NY trade. Price is back inside the 0.5649–0.5674 Asian range, and the 0.5664 spike base is the next reference below.
Support: 0.56678, 0.56642, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56843, 0.56874
What it said to watch
Hold of the 61.8 fib at 0.5668 keeps the post-spike pullback orderly; a break of the spike base at 0.5664 erases the whole headline move
M15 close back above the asian high at 0.5674 reopens the lower high at 0.5684 and the session high at 0.5687
Loss of the ny low at 0.5657 turns intraday structure to lower lows
RBA decision in Tuesday's Asia session and further US-Iran sanctions headlines could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Intraday range, fading from NY spike · RSI 51 · price 0.56699
False break of asian high, lower highs since 17:00 UTC.
Iran sanctions-relief headlines during NY hours pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5674 asian high to a 0.5687 day high. The break did not hold, and a lower-highs sequence has pulled price back to 0.5670, between the 50% and 61.8% of the spike fib. The 0.5668 swing low is the nearest floor, EMA20 sits overhead just above price and RSI(14) is neutral near 51.
Support: 0.56678, 0.56569, 0.5653
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5674 asian high and the lower-highs line negates the false break read
Loss of the 0.5668 swing low (61.8% spike fib) exposes the 0.5657 ny low, then the 0.5653 london low
Reclaim of the 0.5687 day high brings the 0.5700 psych level into view
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 and US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read
False break above 0.5674 highs, back at swing low.
A 16:15 UTC spike, in line with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the dollar, cleared the 0.5674 Asia high and hit a 0.5687 spike high, then printed a lower high at 0.5684 and faded through late NY. Price now sits on the 0.5670 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the spike leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.56702, 0.56645, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56738, 0.56845, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5670 swing low exposes the 0.5665 spike base and the 0.5657 NY low
Reclaim of the 0.5674 Asia high re-opens the 0.5684 lower high and 0.5687 spike high
RBA decision in the Asia session, then JOLTS 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak Tuesday, could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading from spike high · RSI 57 · price 0.56729
Higher lows since 0.5653, breakout above 0.5674 now retesting.
A mid-NY spike to the 0.5687 session high broke the 0.5673–0.5674 prior high that capped Asia and early NY. The move came as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the dollar. Late NY has faded from the 0.5684 twin highs, and price is retesting that prior high near the 50% fib of the 0.5657–0.5687 leg, with RSI(14) cooling to ~57.
Support: 0.56735, 0.5670, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.56874
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5670 round number puts price back inside the prior range and exposes the rising lows line toward the 0.5657 swing low
Clearance of the 0.5684 twin highs reopens the 0.5687 session high
RBA decision Tuesday (hike to 4.60% expected), then JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak later Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; NY breakout above Asian high now being retested.
After a weekend gap lower, NZDUSD built higher lows from the 0.5653 London low. The NY low at 0.5657 held, and the pair spiked to a 0.5687 session high as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the USD bid. A lower high at 0.5684 was rejected after London close, and price is now retesting the 0.5674 Asian high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY rally, with RSI(14) back near 58.
Support: 0.5674, 0.56702, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56843, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5674 Asian high and 0.5670 pullback low turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the NY low at 0.5657 breaks the higher-low trendline from London
Close above the 0.5684 lower high reopens the 0.5687 session high and the 0.5700 round number
Asia session open and Tuesday RBA decision, then JOLTS and Fedspeak, could shift this read
Late-NY breakout above Asian high, pulling back to retest it.
Monday opened with a gap lower as USD firmed. The Asian low printed at 0.5649, and London plus early NY were capped at the 0.5674 Asian high. A late-NY spike to a 0.5687 session high broke that cap, in line with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the dollar. Price is back at 0.5674 after a double rejection near 0.5684, holding the 38.2% fib of the breakout leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5670, 0.5657
Resistance: 0.5684, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5670 swing low turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5657 higher low breaks the rising higher-lows line off the Asian low
Clearance of the 0.5684 rejection and the 0.5687 session high puts the 0.5700 round number in view
RBA decision during Tuesday's Asia session could jolt kiwi crosses and spill into this pair
Higher lows since London; NY break of Asian range high, now pulling back.
NY session cleared the 0.56739 Asian high with a spike to a 0.56874 session high as Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimmed the dollar. The pullback held the 0.5670 round number near the 61.8% fib of the NY leg, and the higher lows since London remain intact. Late NY, price sits between the 0.56739 retest zone and a 0.56843 lower high.
Support: 0.56739, 0.5670, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56843, 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.56739 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.56874 session high would put 0.5700 psych in view
Loss of the 0.56569 ny swing low would break the higher lows chain
RBA decision Tue, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Williams/Waller Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Range break above 0.5674, retest held, late NY session.
A 16:15 UTC spike, which coincided with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming the USD, broke the 0.5674 range top that had capped both the Asia and NY highs. The retest low at 0.5670 held near the 61.8% of the NY leg, and price is back at 0.5683 just under the 0.5687 spike high. Higher lows from the 0.5653 London low and the 0.5657 NY low frame the intraday structure, with RSI(14) at 62.
Support: 0.5674, 0.5670, 0.5657
Resistance: 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5674 range top turns the break into a false break
Clearance of the 0.5687 spike high opens the 0.5700 round number
A break of the 0.5657 ny low and the higher lows line undoes the intraday structure
Tuesday's RBA decision and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Range with upside skew, spike faded · RSI 54 · price 0.56728
Higher lows since London; NY spike above Asian high rejected, price back at 0.5674.
Late NY printed a one-bar spike from the 0.5664 spike base to a 0.5687 spike high. It was quickly sold back to the 0.5674 Asian high, which also capped the Asian session and earlier NY. Price is holding near the 50% of the spike fib, and higher lows since London (0.5653, 0.5657) keep the session range tilted up while the kiwi's lift on the US-China truce extension runs into a firm USD.
Support: 0.5671, 0.5664, 0.5657
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5687
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5674 asian high reopens a test of the 0.5687 spike high
Loss of the 0.5671 pullback low exposes the 0.5664 spike base and a full spike fib retrace
A break below the 0.5657 ny low breaks the higher lows trendline and the intraday range structure
16:46 UTC
Intraday breakout higher, first pause after spike · RSI 67 · price 0.56824
Range 0.5653–0.5674 broken to upside, holding above asian high.
A single 16:15 UTC bar ran 23 pips to a 0.5687 spike high during NY hours. It cleared the asian high at 0.5674 and a day-long 0.5653–0.5674 chop that had followed the weekend gap lower. There was no calendar trigger in the window and the digest has USD firm, so the move stands out against the macro backdrop. The current bar is holding near 0.5682 with RSI(14) at 67, not stretched, and higher lows from the London low through the ny low at 0.5657 remain intact.
Support: 0.5674, 0.56642, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5674 asian high would mark the move as a false break
Acceptance above the 0.5687 spike high opens the 0.5700 round number, the digest's first resistance
Loss of the 0.5664 spike base, near the 50% of the NY spike fib, retraces the whole breakout
Break of the higher lows trendline toward the 0.5657 ny low returns price to the prior range
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break above Asian high after higher lows at 0.5653 / 0.5657.
After London close, a single 22-pip bar lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5653–0.5674 range that had held since Asia. It cleared the 0.5674 Asian high and the NY session high, then set a spike high at 0.5687 from a spike base at 0.5664. Price is holding near 0.5682 in the next bar despite a firm USD backdrop, with the higher-lows line from 0.5653 still intact beneath.
Support: 0.56739, 0.56642, 0.56569
Resistance: 0.56874, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A return below the 0.5674 Asian high, near the 38.2% of the spike fib, would turn the breakout into a false break back inside the range
An M15 close above the 0.5687 spike high puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Loss of the 0.5664 spike base and the higher-lows line, with the 0.5657 NY low below, negates the breakout
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and the RBA decision on Tuesday could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Sideways, higher lows under a flat top · RSI 45 · price 0.5665
0.5649–0.5674 day range, higher lows.
After the weekend gap lower, NZDUSD has held a 0.5649–0.5674 range all Monday. NY rejected the day high at 0.5674 a second time, but the drop stalled at the NY low of 0.5657, extending the higher-low chain from the Asian low (0.5649) and the London low (0.5653). The US-China truce lift is being offset by hawkish Fedspeak; price is mid-range late in NY hours, RSI(14) near 45, with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5674, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 day high breaks the double top and opens 0.5700, the round number
A break below the 0.5657 NY low snaps the rising-lows line and exposes the 0.5653 london low
Failure at the 0.5669 bounce high keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.5649–0.5674, higher lows under a flat top.
The NY session retested the 0.5674 Asian session high and was rejected at 0.5674. Price then dropped to a 0.5657 ny low, which held above the 0.5653 london low, leaving higher lows inside the 0.5649–0.5674 range. Price is now around 0.5666, about 60% up the ny drop fib, sitting on EMA20 with RSI near 50 after London close, as the US-China truce lift stays capped by a Fed-firm USD.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.56739
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5671 ny pivot puts the 0.5674 session high, a double rejection so far, back in play
Loss of the 0.5657 ny low and the higher lows trendline exposes the 0.5653 london low and the 0.5649 asia low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range 0.5649–0.5674; higher lows since London, flat highs.
The weekend gap below Friday's close filled during Asia, and price is still inside the Asian range. The US-China truce lift was capped in the NY session as a second test of the 0.5674 session high was rejected, pushing price down to the 0.5657 ny low. That low sits above the london low at 0.5653, extending the rising lows. Price is at 0.5666, flat on EMA20/50, and RSI(14) is neutral at 48.
Support: 0.5657, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5674 session high breaks the Asian range top and opens the 0.5677 friday high, then the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5657 ny low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.5653 london low, then the 0.5649 asian low
0.5661/0.5663 (61.8%/50% of the ny leg fib) is the first pullback zone inside the range
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD leg and this read; RBA decision in the next Asia session is a cross-driven risk for NZD
Range inside the Asian range 0.5649–0.5674, double rejection at the top.
The US-China truce lift carried NZDUSD back to the Asian high at 0.5674 during NY hours, but hawkish Fed pricing kept a lid on it. That makes two rejections there. Price is now pinned near 0.5666, on the 38.2% fib of the 0.5653–0.5674 move and on flat EMAs, with the NY low at 0.5657 holding above the London low to keep a higher-lows line in place.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5670
What it said to watch
A close above the Asian high at 0.5674 opens the Friday high at 0.5677, then the 0.5700 round number
A break of the higher-lows line and the NY low at 0.5657 exposes the London low at 0.5653
A loss of the Asian low at 0.5649 would break the session range to the downside
Fed's Cook speaks at 17:15 UTC, and the RBA decision in the next Asia session could shift this read
Monday gapped lower and set the Asian low at 0.5649. Price then built a 0.5649–0.5674 range. A NY-open push stalled at the 0.5674 day high for a second time, and the pullback held the NY low at 0.5657. That leaves a third higher low after the London low at 0.5653. The US-China truce lift is being capped by hawkish Fed repricing, and price is now pinned around 0.5663 near the 0.5670 round number, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56738, 0.56774
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5674 day high breaks the range top and brings the 0.5677 Friday high into view
Loss of the 0.5657 NY low breaks the rising-lows trendline; below the 0.5653 London low exposes the 0.5649 Asian low
Repeated rejection under the 0.5670 round number keeps price inside the lower half of the range
15:03 UTC
Sideways, intraday range · RSI 45 · price 0.56607
Inside Asian range, rising lows under a flat top.
Early NY, price is still inside the 0.5649–0.5674 Asian range. The NY rally stalled at 0.5674, a second rejection at the asian high, and pulled back about 62% of the london low to 0.5674 leg as the hawkish-Fed USD bid capped kiwi. Rising lows at 0.5653 and the 0.5657 ny low are holding for now.
Support: 0.56569, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56713, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5657 ny low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5653 london low
Loss of the 0.5649 asian low turns the range into a downside range break
Close above the 0.5671 swing high and the 0.5674 asian high invalidates the range read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the read; RBA decision early Tuesday is next NZD-cross risk
14:47 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 48 · price 0.56622
0.5653–0.5674 intraday range; double top rejection at 0.5674.
Monday opened with a weekend gap lower on a firmer USD, and the kiwi recovered to a 0.5674 Asia high. The NY session retested that level at 0.56736 and was rejected, forming a double top. Price is back at 0.5662, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the London low–NY high leg and below the ema20.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 london swing exposes the 0.5653 london low and the 0.5649 asia low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.5665 and a break of the 0.5674 double top puts the 0.5677 friday high in play
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
RBA decision in Tuesday's Asia session may move NZD crosses and spill into this range
14:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, capped at Asian high · RSI 63 · price 0.56694
Monday range 0.5649–0.5674, higher lows off the London low.
The weekend gap from 0.5662 filled during the Asia session. The London dip held at 0.5653, above the 0.5649 Asian low, and the NY advance on the US-China truce lift stalled at 0.56736, a rejection just under the 0.5674 Asian high. Price holds above a rising trendline off the London low, with RSI(14) near 63 and no stretched reading.
Support: 0.56646, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 Asian high opens the Friday high at 0.5677, then the 0.5700 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5665 pullback low exposes the London low at 0.5653
Loss of the 0.5649 Asian low would break the day's range to the downside
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing during late NY hours
14:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below asian high · RSI 61 · price 0.56699
Higher lows under a flat 0.5671–0.5674 cap.
Early NY has retraced the London drop with a chain of higher lows off the London low at 0.5653. The rally off that low is compressing against 0.5671–0.5674, where a 0.56736 spike faded just shy of the Asian high at 0.56739. The US-China truce lift for the kiwi is being capped by a USD firmed on hawkish Fed repricing; RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56646, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the Asian high at 0.5674 opens the Friday high at 0.5677 and the 0.5700 psych level
A break of the rising-low trendline and the NY swing low at 0.5665 turns focus back to the London low at 0.5653
Failure to hold the Asian low at 0.5649 would take out the session floor from the Sunday reopen
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read
14:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at Asian high · RSI 62 · price 0.56685
Higher lows off London low, capped inside Asian range.
Kiwi has built a higher-low chain off the 0.5653 London low into the first hour of NY, but the 13:45 UTC push to 0.5674 was rejected just under the Asian high, leaving price inside the 0.5649–0.5674 Asian range. The lift tracks US-China truce headlines, while a firm USD on Fed-hike repricing caps gains. The 0.5700 psych level has been tagged repeatedly without a close above, and ATR is under 5 pips.
Support: 0.56647, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5670
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high brings Friday's 0.5677 prior high into play
Loss of the 0.5665 higher low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5661 and the 0.5653 london low
A break of the 0.5649 asian low would resume the weekend gap-down move
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing into the NY session
13:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 0.5672
0.5649–0.5674 day range; higher low at 0.5653, NY testing the top.
Kiwi filled the weekend gap and ran from the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high on the US-China truce lift. London faded the move to 0.5653, a higher low that also sits at the London low. NY has since carved a ny low near 0.5665 and is now retesting the asian high, with RSI(14) at 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high breaks the day range and opens the 0.5677 friday high, then 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5665 ny low puts price back inside the range toward the 0.5653 london low
Break of the 0.5649 asian low turns the rising NY trendline structure into a lower-low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone late in the NY session
Monday range 0.5649–0.5674; NY rebound capped at the session high.
NY opened with a rebound from the 0.5653 London low to the 0.5671 session high, which has rejected price three times in the first hour of NY. Price is back at 0.5666 on the EMAs, mid-way between the 0.5649 Asian low and the 0.5674 Asian high. The US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi off the weekend gap lows, while a firm USD keeps gains capped.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 Asian high breaks the Monday range top and exposes the 0.5677 Friday high
Loss of the 0.5660 London open low puts the 0.5653 London low and 0.5649 Asian low back in play
Asian rally fib: the 0.5653 London low sits near the 78.6% retracement; a break below it largely unwinds the move
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD leg of this range
Asia range 0.5649–0.5674, rising lows off the London low.
Monday gapped about 8 pips below Friday's close. Asia ran from 0.5649 to a 0.5674 Asia high, London faded to a 0.5653 London low, and early NY has rebounded to a 0.5671 NY high on the US-China truce lift before stalling near 0.5666 against a firm USD. Rising lows since the London low keep the pullback shallow. The fib 61.8 of that leg sits at 0.5660.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5674 Asia high breaks the session range and puts the 0.5677 Friday high in play
A break of the rising lows and the 0.5660 fib 61.8 exposes the 0.5653 London low, then the 0.5649 Asia low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD leg during late NY hours
13:03 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 0.56689
Higher lows off London low, capped at 0.5671 inside Asian range.
Monday gapped lower and set an Asian range of 0.5649–0.5674. London sold back to the london low at 0.5653, and a higher-low chain along a rising trendline has since carried price into early NY, in line with the US-China truce lift against a firm USD. Three pushes at the 0.5671 ny cap have stalled below the asian high, with RSI(14) near 58 and no overbought reading.
Support: 0.56647, 0.56597, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56713, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high breaks the Asian range top and exposes the friday high at 0.5677
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5665 ny low ends the higher-low sequence; the 0.5660 higher low is next
Loss of the 0.5653 london low reopens the Asian low near 0.5649
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
12:47 UTC
Sideways, Monday range intact · RSI 58 · price 0.56668
Range 0.5649–0.5674; London higher low at 0.5653, early-NY lower high at 0.5671.
The weekend gap lower was filled in Asia on the US-China truce extension, but hawkish Fed repricing capped the Asian high at 0.5674. London faded to 0.5653, holding above the Asia low. Early NY recovered to 0.5671 and met rejection just under that high. Price is now sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the London-to-NY leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high at 0.5674 breaks the Monday range and brings the friday high at 0.5677 into play
Failure at the 50% fib (0.5662) exposes the london low at 0.5653; a break of the asia low at 0.5649 turns structure to lower-lows
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing and this read
Repeated rejection at the ny high 0.5671 would confirm a lower-high sequence below the asia high
12:31 UTC
Intraday recovery inside Asian range · RSI 61 · price 0.56682
Higher lows off 0.5653 swing low, capped below the Asian high.
Monday opened with an ~8-pip gap below Friday's 0.5662 close. London and early NY are still inside the 0.5649–0.5674 Asian range. Price rebounded from the 0.5653 swing low along a higher-low line to a fresh London high at 0.5671 around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks, helped by the US-China truce extension. RSI(14) is near 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56531
Resistance: 0.56713, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Rejection at the 0.5671 london high keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 0.5660 london low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.5653 swing low
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone within the NY session
12:16 UTC
Intraday range, short-term higher lows off London low · RSI 63 · price 0.56682
Asian range 0.5649–0.5674 intact; higher-low chain since 10:00 UTC pressing London high.
Monday's gap-down open was absorbed as Asia rallied from 0.5649 to an Asian high at 0.5674. London faded to a London low at 0.5653, above the Asian low, and a higher-low chain along the rebound trendline has since carried price back to retest the London high near 0.5670, retracing most of the Asian-high-to-London-low drop. US-China truce relief is supporting the kiwi while a firm USD keeps it inside the range.
Support: 0.56597, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56706, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 London high opens the 0.5674 Asian high and the 0.5677 Friday high
Loss of the 0.5660 higher low and the rebound trendline returns focus to the 0.5653 London low and the 0.5649 Asian low
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift this read via October hike pricing
Stall below the 0.5674 Asian high near the upper end of the retrace keeps the range read intact
12:03 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, now bouncing · RSI 52 · price 0.56639
London lower highs into 0.5653 low, higher lows since.
After the weekend gap lower on the USD bid, Asia rallied to a 0.56739 asian high, then London printed lower highs into a 0.56531 session low. Price has since stacked higher lows and trades at 0.5664, the 50% retrace of that drop, and is sitting just above EMA50 into late London.
Support: 0.56597, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56703 london high reopens the 0.56739 asian high
Loss of the 0.56597 higher low and the rising lows trendline puts the 0.56531 session low back in play, with the 0.56489 asian low near 0.5650 below
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Sideways, inside Asian range · RSI 47 · price 0.56623
London lower high and higher low inside the Asian range, compressing.
The weekend gap lower was filled in Asia, and the rally ran to the asian high at 0.56739. London then faded it to the london low at 0.56531 after a lower high at 0.56703, as the USD bid capped the US-China truce lift. Late London has the pair back at Friday's close of 0.56623, pinned at EMA50 and sitting between the 50% and 61.8% of the London drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift USD pricing into the NY open
Rejection at the 61.8% of the London drop near 0.56637 keeps the lower highs intact
A close above the london high at 0.56703 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the asian high at 0.56739 back in play
Loss of the 0.5660 round number reopens the london low at 0.56531; a break there opens the path to the asian low at 0.56489
London lower highs, lower low at 0.5653, retracing inside Asian range.
London faded the Asian high at 0.5674 through a 0.5670 london high and 0.5664 lower high, printing a 0.5653 london low as the firm USD capped the China-truce lift in the kiwi. Late London is retesting the 50% of that drop near 0.5662, just under ema20. The 61.8% fib, the lower high and ema50 cluster at 0.5663–0.5664, and the pair still sits inside the 0.5649–0.5674 Asian range.
Support: 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56637, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5664 lower high and ema50 breaks the London lower-high chain and exposes the 0.5670 london high and descending line
Failure to hold the 0.5653 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5649 asian low
A move through the 0.5674 asian high would break the Asian range to the upside
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD pricing into the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; weekend gap filled.
Monday opened with a weekend gap lower. Asia rallied off the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap. London has since printed a lower-high sequence (0.5674, 0.5670 london high, 0.5664 lower high) as the Fed-driven USD bid returned, tagging a 0.5653 london low; price is back near 0.5658, below both EMAs and the 38.2% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low move.
Support: 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56637, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5664 lower high and descending trendline breaks the London lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5653 london low exposes the 0.5649 asian low
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (first hour before NY) could materially shift this read; Cook follows at 17:15 UTC
Reclaim of the 0.5670 london high puts the 0.5674 asian high back in play
Lower highs from the Asian high, London low at 0.5653 holding.
Asia filled the weekend gap but stalled at the 0.5674 asian high. London has printed lower highs at the 0.5670 london high and the 0.5664 lower high, then tagged a 0.5653 session low as the firm USD on October Fed hike pricing capped the China-truce bounce. Price is recovering toward the 38.2% retrace near 0.5661 while still below EMA20, RSI(14) 45.
Support: 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56637, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5664 lower high and the lower highs trendline near 0.5667 breaks the London sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5653 session low exposes the 0.5649 asian low and confirms a lower-low
Rejection in the 38.2–50% retrace zone at 0.5661–0.5664 keeps the lower-high chain intact
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could shift October hike pricing and this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the Asian high · RSI 42 · price 0.56574
Lower highs and lower lows through London, Asian rally nearly fully retraced.
After a roughly 8-pip weekend gap lower, the pair bounced during the Asia session from the Asian low at 0.5649 to the Asian high at 0.5674 on the US-China truce extension. London has since reversed nearly all of that gain on a firm USD tied to Fed hike pricing. A lower-highs sequence from the London high at 0.5670 took price to a session low at 0.5653, near the 78.6% level of the Asia rally fib. Price now sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and not stretched.
Support: 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5653 session low exposes the 0.5649 Asian low, a full retrace of the Asia rally
M15 close back above the 0.5660 broken low and the lower-highs trendline breaks the London downtrend structure
Recovery through the 0.5670 London high toward the 0.5674 Asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift October hike pricing and USD tone
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 0.56558
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, inside the Asian range.
Kiwi gapped lower at the weekly open on the firm USD, then rallied through Asia to the asian high at 0.5674 on the US-China truce extension. London has sold off in a lower-high chain (london high 0.5670, lower high 0.5664) to a new london low at 0.5653, just below Friday's 0.5655 low, with price sitting under the descending trendline and both EMAs.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5664, 0.5670, 0.5674
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5649 extends the lower-low sequence out of the Asian range
Close back above the lower high at 0.5664, near the 61.8% fib of the London decline, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
A break above the descending trendline and the london high at 0.5670 reopens the asian high at 0.5674
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) on October hike odds could materially shift this read in NY hours
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 35 · price 0.56554
LH/LL chain off Asian high, trading in lower half of Asian range.
After a small weekend gap lower, Asia rallied to a 0.5674 Asian high. London has since printed lower highs at 0.5670 (London high) and 0.5664, and the 10:00 UTC leg set a 0.5653 session low as the Fed-driven USD bid caps the kiwi. Price sits mid-London, in the lower half of the Asian range, with RSI(14) near 35 and the 0.5649 Asian low as the next reference.
Support: 0.56531, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56637, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5664 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5653 session low and 0.5649 Asian low extends the downtrend below Monday's range
Reclaim of the 0.5670 London high puts the 0.5674 Asian high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, around the NY open, could shift October hike pricing and this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 40 · price 0.56596
Lower highs from 0.5674, pressing London low near 61.8% fib.
The Asian rally from the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high, lifted by the US-China truce extension, has been fully unwound through London as a firm USD reasserts. Lower highs at the 0.5670 london high and the 0.5664 swing high have followed. Price is pressing the 0.5659 london low near the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.56586, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56637, 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 london low exposes the 0.5655 friday low and the 0.5649 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5664 swing high and the 0.5670 london high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
09:47 UTC
Sideways, mild lower-high drift since Asian peak · RSI 47 · price 0.56633
London range below Asian high, session low holding at 61.8% fib.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5662 close. The gap was filled during an Asian rally from the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high as the US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi. London has since traded a 0.5659–0.5670 range capped by a lower high, with the session low holding near the 61.8% fib; price sits just under the flat EMAs and RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 0.56586, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 session low breaks the 61.8% fib hold and exposes the 0.5649 asian low
Close above the 0.5670 lower high clears the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5674 asian high
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could shift USD pricing heading into the NY session
09:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs in London · RSI 43 · price 0.56615
London fading the Asian rally, holding inside the Asian range.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close. Price rallied from the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high on the US-China truce extension, but London has printed a lower high. After the rejection at the 0.5670 london high, price is retracing into the 50–61.8% zone of the asian rally fib (0.5661–0.5658). RSI(14) sits near 43 with price under both EMAs, and ATR is about 4 pips as the firm USD caps upside.
Support: 0.56586, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 london low (61.8% of the asian rally fib) confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5655 friday low, then the asian low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5670 london high negates the pullback read, with the asian high and friday high stacked at 0.5674–0.5677
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could shift USD tone around the NY open
09:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.5660
Asian rally faded; London printing lower high and lower low.
The Asian rally from the weekly low at 0.5649 to the Asian high at 0.5674, lifted by the US-China truce extension, has faded in London as hawkish Fedspeak keeps USD firm. A lower high at the 0.5670 London high sent price back to the 0.5659 London low, near the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) at 38 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5655, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5659 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5655 friday low and the 0.5649 weekly low
Close back above the 0.5670 london high breaks the descending lower-high line and reopens the 0.5674 asian high, then the 0.5677 friday high
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
09:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 40 · price 0.56606
Asia rally 0.5649–0.5674 retraced in London; 0.5660 London low tested twice.
Kiwi gapped lower at the weekly open, then ran from the 0.5649 Asian low to the 0.5674 Asian high on the US-China truce extension. London has given most of that back. A rejection at the 0.5670 London high left a lower high, and price is on a second test of the 0.5660 London low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 London low breaks the double test and exposes the 0.5655 Friday low, then the 0.5649 Asian low
Asia rally fib 61.8% at 0.5658 sits just under the London low; a clean break of both extends the retracement
Reclaiming the 0.5670 London high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 0.5674 Asian high and 0.5677 Friday high back in focus
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read via USD hike pricing
08:46 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 0.56623
Lower highs 0.5674 → 0.5670, London low 0.5660 holding.
The weekend gap down to 0.5649 filled in the Asia session on the US-China truce extension, but the rally stalled at the 0.5674 Asian high, short of the 0.5677 Friday high, as USD firmness capped gains. London has printed a lower high at 0.5670 and is retesting the 0.5660 London low near the 50% fib of the Asian leg, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 London low opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5658 and the 0.5649 Asian low
Close above the 0.5670 London high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 0.5674 Asian high and 0.5677 Friday high back into play
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally, flattening · RSI 44 · price 0.56659
London compressing inside the Asian range, lower highs off the asian high.
The weekend gap lower was filled as the US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi through Asia, from the asian low at 0.5649 to the asian high at 0.5674. London has faded that move. The london low at 0.5660 held near the 50% retrace of the Asian rally fib, and price is now compressing between 0.5660 and the london high at 0.5670 under a lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.5674 asian high reopens the friday high at 0.5677.
Failure to hold the 0.5660 london low, near the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib, exposes the 0.5649 asian low.
No scheduled data in the next 8h. The RBA decision Tuesday and Fedspeak from Musalem, Goolsbee and Williams could shift this read.
08:17 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, momentum neutral · RSI 44 · price 0.56653
London range 0.5660–0.5670 inside Asia high/low.
The Asia session rallied from the 0.5649 asia low to the 0.5674 asia high on the US-China truce extension. London open faded it to 0.5660, near the 50–61.8% level of the asia rally fib. The bounce met rejection at the 0.5670 london high, and price is now mid-range around 0.5665 with EMA20/EMA50 flat and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56703, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5670 london high reopens the 0.5674 asia high and 0.5677 friday high
Failure to hold the 0.5660 london low (61.8% of the asia rally fib) exposes the 0.5655 friday low and 0.5649 asia low
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; Iran/Hormuz and oil headlines remain the swing factor ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision and Fed speakers
Inside Asian range 0.5649–0.5674, lower highs since 0.5674 now being tested.
Monday gapped below Friday's 0.5662 close. The Asian session then rallied from the 0.5649 asian low to the 0.5674 asian high on the US-China truce extension. The London open dip found demand at 0.5660 (london low), inside the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally fib, and the bounce has cleared the pullback trendline to test the 0.5668 lower high, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.56598, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5674 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.5677 friday high in play
Rejection at the 0.5668 lower high followed by a break of the 0.5660 london low reopens the 0.5655 friday low and 0.5649 asian low
Iran/Hormuz headlines lifting USD during London hours could cap the recovery; no scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h
07:47 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, short-term lower highs · RSI 35 · price 0.56619
London lower-high/lower-low chain after Asia rally.
The US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi through Asia from the 0.5649 asian low to a 0.5674 asian high. London open rejected that high and printed a string of lower highs down to a 0.5660 session low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia leg. The weekend gap back to Friday's 0.5662 close is now filled, and the firm USD and yield backdrop is capping the bounce.
Support: 0.5660, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56674, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5655 friday low, then the 0.5649 asian low
Close above the 0.5667 lower high breaks the London lower-highs trendline
A move through the 0.5674 asian high puts the 0.5677 friday high back in play
No scheduled data in the next 8h; oil and Iran headlines, and US yields holding above 5%, are the main swing factors
Pullback inside Asian range; lower highs since 0.5674.
The weekend gap lower was filled as Asia rallied from the 0.5649 asian low to 0.5674 on the US-China truce extension. Price has since slipped back into the London open, printing a 0.5660 london low near the 50–61.8% zone of the asia rally fib. A 0.5667 lower high caps the pullback while USD stays heavy on Fed hike pricing.
Support: 0.5660, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5667, 0.5674
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5660 london low opens the 61.8% asia rally fib near 0.5658, then the 0.5649 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5667 lower high neutralises the pullback and puts the 0.5674 asian high back in play
ATR near 3 pips; a London session break of either level would signal range expansion
07:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia session high · RSI 31 · price 0.56599
Lower highs since 0.56739, weekend gap filled.
The Asia session rallied from the 0.56489 asian low to the 0.56739 asian high on the US-China truce extension. Supply capped the move there, and a string of lower highs followed by selling into the London open has taken price back through the friday close at 0.56623, filling the weekend gap. Price sits between the 50% and fib 61.8 (0.56584) levels of the Asia leg with RSI(14) near 31, and the monday open at 0.56546 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.56584, 0.56546, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56623, 0.56674, 0.56739
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance below the fib 61.8 at 0.56584 exposes the monday open at 0.56546, then the asian low at 0.56489
A close back above the friday close at 0.56623 and the 0.56674 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
A return above the 0.56739 asian high would negate the rejection read
RBA decision on Tue (4.60% hike expected) could shift kiwi via AUD/NZD flows
07:03 UTC
Pullback within Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 37 · price 0.56637
Weekend gap filled; lower highs from Asian high into London open.
Monday opened with a gap down to a 0.5649 asian low, then the US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi to a 0.5674 asian high and filled Friday's gap. Price has printed lower highs since, and at London open is holding the 0.5662 gap fill just under the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56623, 0.56584, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56674, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5662 gap fill exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5658, then the 0.5649 asian low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 0.5667 puts the 0.5674 asian high and 0.5677 friday high back in play
US yields and the RBA decision on Sep 29 could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 0.56664
Weekend gap filled; pullback holding 50% of Asia rally.
The Asia session filled the weekend gap down. The US-China truce extension drove an Asia rally from the 0.5649 asia low to an Asian range high of 0.5674, and price has faded on lower highs into the London open. The pullback held the swing low at 0.5662, which sits near the 50% retracement and Friday's close. Price now trades back under the ema20 at 0.5668, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56624, 0.56584, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56684, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.5662 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.5658 and then the asia low at 0.5649
A recovery above the ema20 at 0.5668 and the 0.5674 asia high resets the higher-high chain toward the friday high at 0.5677
The London open in about 15 minutes typically tests the Asian range edges
The RBA decision on Tue and US PCE/ADP on Wed are the next event risks for this read
Weekend gap filled; pullback from session high into the rally's midpoint.
Monday opened with an ~8-pip gap lower. Asia filled it on the US-China truce-extension headline, rallying from the 0.5649 asia low to a 0.5674 session high that stalled short of the 0.5677 friday high. Late Asia has since printed lower highs back to a 0.5662 pullback low, near the 50% retracement of the Asia rally. RSI(14) sits at 44 and price is below both EMAs heading into London open.
Support: 0.56624, 0.56552, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56685, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5662 pullback low extends the lower-low sequence toward the friday low at 0.5655
Close above the 0.5669 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.5674 session high
Loss of the 0.5649 asia low would unwind the entire truce bounce
London open liquidity could test the Asian range at either end
Pullback from Asian high into mid-range, testing 0.5665.
Monday opened on a small gap below Friday's 0.5662 close. Price based at the 0.5649 asian low and rallied to a 0.5674 asian high on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap. A run of lower highs since 04:30 UTC has pulled price back to 0.5665, about a 44% fib retracement of that rally, just above the 0.5663 pullback low. RSI(14) sits near 42 and price is under the EMA20 into the final hour before London open.
Support: 0.5663, 0.5655, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.5674, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5663 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.5658, then the 0.5655 friday low
Reclaim of 0.5670 psych breaks the lower highs sequence and brings a retest of the 0.5674 asian high and the 0.5677 friday high into play
Break of the 0.5649 asian low would erase the entire Monday bounce
London open is under an hour away; the RBA decision Tue and US PCE Wed could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.56675
HH/HL chain from Asian low; first lower low printed at 0.5665.
Monday opened on a gap below the 0.5662 Friday close, based at the 0.5649 Asian low and then rallied on the US-China truce-extension headline to a 0.5674 session high, filling the gap. Price has pulled back to the 0.5665 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the Asian rally, and slipped under EMA20 with RSI(14) back to neutral.
Support: 0.56653, 0.56623, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5670
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5665 swing low exposes the 0.5662 fri close, then the 0.5649 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5674 session high brings the 0.5677 friday high and the 0.5700 psych level into play
London open within the hour; RBA decision Tue and US PCE Wed could materially shift this read
Asia higher-low chain broken; pullback from session high.
Kiwi filled the weekend gap during the Asia session on the US-China truce extension, climbing from the 0.5649 Asian low to a 0.5674 session high through a steady higher-low chain. The latest bars broke the rally line and printed a 0.5666 pullback low, leaving price just under EMA20 and holding above the 38.2% retrace near 0.5664 heading into London open.
Support: 0.56659, 0.56622, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56739, 0.56774
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.5666 pullback low exposes the 0.5662 gap fill and the 50% retrace near 0.5661
M15 close back above 0.5670 psych reopens the 0.5674 session high and 0.5677 friday high
Break below the 0.5649 asian low would unwind the entire Asia rally
RBA decision Tue and US ADP/PCE Wed could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Uptrend through Asia, stalling below session high · RSI 60 · price 0.5670
HH/HL chain off the 0.5649 Asia low; weekend gap filled; shallow pullback from 0.5674.
Monday's Asia session opened on a gap lower. Price bottomed at the 0.5649 Asia low, then rallied on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap above the 0.5662 Friday close and printing a 0.5674 session high. The Asian rally is easing to 0.5670 on lower highs, holding the 0.5669 swing low, with the 0.5677 Friday high and 0.5700 psych level overhead.
Support: 0.56691, 0.56623, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56739, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 0.5662 Friday close / 50% of the Asian rally fib in play
Close above the 0.5674 session high and 0.5677 Friday high opens the 0.5700 psych level
London open in ~1.5h is the first test of the Asian range; Fed speakers Tuesday, ADP/PCE Wednesday
Asia higher-low chain from 0.5649 low, stalling below session high.
Monday Asia gapped below Friday's 0.5662 close and set a 0.5649 session low. The Asia rally that followed the US-China truce extension filled the gap and built a higher-low chain to a 0.5674 session high. RSI(14) is near 69 and flattening under that high, with the 0.5669 higher low the nearest test of the sequence.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5664, 0.5662
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5669 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; the fib 38.2 retracement at 0.5664 is next
Close above the 0.5674 session high exposes the 0.5677 Friday high, then the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5662 Friday close reopens the gap area toward the 0.5649 session low
London open in under 2h tends to test or reset the Asian range
RBA decision Tuesday Asia could move NZD crosses and spill into this pair
04:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 0.56733
HH/HL chain off 0.5649 double bottom, weekend gap filled.
Late in the Asia session, the kiwi has fully reversed the weekend gap lower. A double bottom formed at the 0.5649 asian low, and the pair climbed back through the 0.5662 gap fill on the US-China truce extension. The HH/HL chain along rising support now presses the 0.5674 session high, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 0.5677 friday high just above.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5662, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5674, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below rising support and the 0.5668 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
A close above the 0.5677 friday high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the 0.5662 gap fill, near the 50% of the asian rally fib, returns focus to the 0.5649 asian low
London open in ~2h, plus Tuesday's RBA decision, could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain off 0.5649 low, weekend gap filled.
The Monday open gapped about 8 pips lower. Asia then rallied roughly 25 pips from the 0.5649 asia low in a clean higher-low chain, filling the gap on the US-China truce extension. Price is now testing the 0.5674 session high just under the 0.5677 friday high, with RSI(14) near 73 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56679, 0.56622, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56736, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5677 friday high opens the 0.5700 psych level
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.5668 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; 0.5662 swing low is next
Stall at the session high into London open would mark a second rejection of Friday's 0.5675–0.5677 area
RBA decision Tue and US PCE this week could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.5649 session low; weekend gap filled.
Monday Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5662 close and printed a 0.5649 session low. Price then built steady higher lows along a rising trendline on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap and pressing the 0.5672 session high with RSI(14) near 70 and Friday highs at 0.5675–0.5677 just overhead.
Support: 0.56679, 0.56623, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56724, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5677 Friday high clears Friday's range, leaving 0.5700 psych as the next reference
Break of the rising trendline and a close below the 0.5668 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Slip back under the 0.5662 Friday close reopens the gap and puts the 0.5649 session low back in play
RBA decision Tue and Fed speakers later Tue could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling near session high · RSI 66 · price 0.56694
HH/HL chain off Monday Asia low, gap filled.
Monday Asia opened about 8 pips below Friday's close and set the Asia low at 0.5649. It then built a HH/HL chain on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap at 0.5662 and printing a session high of 0.5672. The last four bars have flattened on the rising trendline just under the session high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~66 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5662, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5668 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asia HH/HL chain
Loss of 0.5662 (gap fill, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib) points to a deeper retrace toward the 0.5649 Asia low
Close above the 0.5672 session high brings Friday's 0.5677 prior high and the 0.5700 round number into view
London open liquidity could test the Asian range; RBA decision Tuesday and US ADP/PCE Wednesday are the larger event risks
HH/HL chain off Monday Asia low, stalling below session high.
Monday Asia gapped below the 0.5662 Friday close and set a session low at 0.5649, then rallied on the US-China truce extension headline, filling the gap and printing a session high at 0.5672. The Asia rally is flattening near 0.5670 with RSI(14) near 69 and ATR around 3 pips. The 0.5665 swing low is the last higher low, and the 0.5677 Friday high caps above.
Support: 0.56648, 0.56623, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56719, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5677 Friday high clears Friday's range and extends the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5665 swing low breaks the HL sequence and exposes the 0.5662 Friday close near the 38.2% of the Asia rally
Failure back toward the 0.5649 session low would erase the truce-headline rally
London open in about 3h; US yields and Fed-hike pricing drive the USD side more than NZ data
Higher lows off a 0.5649 double bottom; Monday gap filled, session high 0.5672.
Monday opened with a gap below the friday close at 0.5662. Price based twice at 0.5649, the monday low, then climbed in rising lows through the Asia session on the US-China truce extension, filling the gap and printing a session high at 0.5672. Price is pressing that high just under Friday's NY high at 0.5677, with RSI(14) near 64 and bar ranges contracting.
Support: 0.56648, 0.56622, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56719, 0.56774, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows and the 0.5665 higher low breaks the Asia chain
Clearance of the friday high at 0.5677 exposes the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the friday close at 0.5662 reopens the gap area toward the monday low at 0.5649
03:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low · RSI 63 · price 0.56718
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5649, weekend gap filled.
Monday Asia opened roughly 8 pips below the Friday close at 0.5662. After an Asian low at 0.5649, price climbed in a clean higher-low chain as the US-China truce extension lifted the kiwi. The weekend gap is filled and price now sits at 0.5672 on a rising trendline, just under the Friday high at 0.5677, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.56623, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56774, 0.5670
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5662 Friday close breaks the rising trendline and unwinds the gap fill
A break of the 0.5677 Friday high puts the 0.5700 round number in play, the old range base in the digest
Loss of the 0.5657 swing low turns the focus back to the 0.5649 Asian low
USD is two-way intraday on mixed weekend headlines, so the London open could reprice the Asia move
HH/HL chain off the Asian session low; weekend gap filled.
The Monday open gapped about 8 pips under Friday's 0.5662 close. After a session low at 0.5649, the Asian session printed a clean HH/HL chain that filled the gap. Price is now testing the 0.5670 round number, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR at about 4 pips. The friday high at 0.5677 caps the upside, and there has been no fresh driver since Friday's oil-led USD dip.
Support: 0.56622, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 0.5670 round number opens the friday high at 0.5677
A close below the 0.5662 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the asian rally trendline; the prior hl at 0.5657 is next
Loss of 0.5657 exposes the 0.5649 session low, which would negate the gap-fill recovery
Oil/Iran headlines are the swing factor for the USD in thin Asian trade
Asia HH/HL chain after weekend gap fill; testing Friday highs.
Asia session has erased the weekend gap down, filling back to the Friday close at the 0.5662 gap fill and climbing from the 0.5649 Asian low in a clean HH/HL chain. Price at 0.5668 sits just under the 0.5672 prior pivot and 0.5677 Friday high, with RSI(14) near 70 and the latest higher low at 0.5665.
Support: 0.5665, 0.5662, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5672, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5677 Friday high clears the window top and opens the 0.5700 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5665 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain; below the 0.5662 gap fill, the 0.5649 Asian low comes back into view
Rejection at the 0.5672 prior pivot with RSI rolling off 70 would mark a stall into London open
Oil / Iran headlines have driven recent NZD bounces and could shift this read before the US data slate later in the week
02:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 67 · price 0.56654
HH/HL chain from 0.5649; Monday gap filled, price pinned under the 0.5668 session high.
Monday opened roughly 8 pips below Friday's 0.5662 close. Demand held the 0.5649 session low twice during the early Asia session, and a HH/HL chain has since filled the gap. Price is now stalling just under the 0.5668 session high, with RSI(14) near 67, firm but not stretched, and the 0.5670 psych level and Friday high at 0.5677 overhead.
Support: 0.56622, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56675, 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5668 session high and 0.5670 psych opens Friday high 0.5677
Close back below the 0.5662 gap fill level puts the swing low at 0.5657 in play and breaks the HL chain
Loss of 0.5649 session low negates the Asia uptrend read
No scheduled data in the next 8h; RBA (Tue) and US PCE (Wed) are the next risks, with digest input thin since Friday
Asia HH/HL chain after weekend gap down; gap filled, pressing session high.
The week opened with a gap below the 0.5662 friday close. Asia session dipped to a session low of 0.5649, just under the 0.5650 area flagged in the NZD digest, then climbed in higher highs and higher lows to fill the gap. Price is now holding just under the 0.5667 session high with RSI(14) near 71 and no fresh headlines since Friday.
Support: 0.56622, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56665, 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5667 session high opens the 0.5669 prior high from Friday's NY session, then the 0.5677 friday high
Loss of the 0.5662 friday close turns the gap fill into a retest failure; below the 0.5657 swing low the higher-low chain breaks
Return to the 0.5649 session low reopens the 0.5650 digest level
Oil/Iran headlines and China PMI timing are the main intraday swing factors for USD and risk tone
02:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, momentum firm · RSI 68 · price 0.56653
HH/HL chain since 00:00 UTC, weekend gap filled.
Sunday's open gapped about 8 pips below Friday's 0.5662 close. The early Asia session then double-bottomed at the 0.5649 Asian low, and a higher-low chain since 00:00 UTC has filled the gap and pressed the session high at 0.5667. RSI(14) is near 68 with ATR around 4 pips, which reads as warm but not stretched, while the digest still frames NZD as heavy near multi-month lows into US data.
Support: 0.56623, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56665, 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5662 gap fill would mark the gap-fill breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.5657 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and trendline, putting the 0.5649 Asian low back in view
Clearance of the 0.5667 session high and 0.5669 prior high opens the 0.5677 Friday high
A pullback toward the 50% of the Asia leg near 0.5658 is the first test of the higher-low structure
RBA decision Tue and US PCE/ADP Wed could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the Asia low · RSI 63 · price 0.56633
Monday Asia opened on a gap lower, swept Friday's low, then built a HL chain that filled the gap.
Asia opened gapped lower from Friday's 0.5662 close and swept Friday's low to a 0.5649 asia low before a higher-low chain filled the gap and tagged a 0.5666 session high. Price holds above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 63, sitting just above the 0.5650 area the digest flags as NZD's multi-month low zone.
Support: 0.56623, 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5670, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5666 session high opens the 0.5670 round number and the 0.5677 friday high
Failure to hold the 0.5662 gap fill puts the 0.5657 asia hl back in play, which lines up with the asia rally fib 50%
A break of 0.5657 and the asia hl line ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5649 asia low
ATR(14) near 4 pips reflects thin Asian flow; London open usually widens the range. RBA decision Tue could move NZD via the AUD/NZD cross
01:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 62 · price 0.56644
Weekend gap filled, higher-low chain testing late Friday highs.
Monday's Asia session opened about 8 pips under Friday's 0.5662 close and based at the 0.5649 Asia low. It has since filled the gap in a higher-low chain on thin weekend news, with RSI(14) near 62. Price is now pressing the late Fri highs at 0.5669, and the 0.5677 Friday high sits above.
Support: 0.5662, 0.5657, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5677, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Friday close at 0.5662 reopens the gap toward the 0.5657 swing low and the Asia HL line
Failure to hold the 0.5657 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; below the 0.5649 Asia low the rebound is fully unwound
Close above the 0.5677 Friday high clears the late Fri hi cap and opens the 0.5700 round number
Oil moves on Iran headlines have driven NZD bounces; a sharp WTI swing could shift this read
US PCE/ADP-week positioning and the RBA decision on Tue keep NZD sensitive to headline flow
01:17 UTC
Intraday recovery after weekend gap down · RSI 57 · price 0.56603
Higher lows off Monday low, capped at gap fill.
Monday opened with a gap down near 0.5654, and early Asia session selling swept Friday's Asian low around 0.5650 to print the Monday low at 0.56489. A stair-step of higher lows then carried price back to the gap fill at 0.56633, where it was rejected. Price is now above EMA20 and pinned at EMA50, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR under 4 pips in thin conditions.
Support: 0.56572, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56633, 0.56687, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56633 gap fill opens the late Friday top (late fri top) at 0.5669, then the Friday high at 0.56774
Break of the 0.56572 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the Monday low at 0.56489
RBA decision Tue (exp. +25bp) and US ADP/PCE Wed could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Intraday rebound after weekend gap lower · RSI 62 · price 0.5662
Higher lows off Asian low, testing gap fill.
Asia session opened with a gap lower. The Asian low at 0.5649 briefly slipped under Friday's 0.5650 low before reversing, a false break, and a run of higher lows has since carried price through the early asian high at 0.5659. Price now sits at the gap fill near Friday's 0.5662 close, which is also the 50% fib of the Friday high to Monday low drop. Thin weekend news leaves NZD trading off the 0.5650 floor.
Support: 0.5659, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5669, 0.5677
What it said to watch
Holding above the asian high at 0.5659 keeps the rising support intact; losing it puts the 0.5649 asian low back in play
A close back below 0.5649 turns the false break into a fresh lower low under Friday's range
Acceptance above the gap fill at 0.5663 opens the fri ny high at 0.5669, then the 61.8% fib and the friday high at 0.5677
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; the RBA decision Tue and US PCE later in the week are the next event risks
Weekend gap below Friday close; twin lows at 0.5649, higher low at 0.5652.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5662 close. It then swept Friday's 0.5650 low with twin prints at the 0.5649 session low before a higher low at 0.5652 lifted price back to the 0.5659 session high. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and the gap remains open on thin weekend-reopen flow, with USD still firm after last week's yield-driven rally.
Support: 0.56515, 0.56489
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56623, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5659 session high, the 38.2% fib of the Friday high-to-session-low move, exposes the 0.5662 friday close gap fill
Loss of the 0.5652 higher low and a break of the 0.5649 session low confirm a lower-low below the double bottom
Recovery through 0.5662 brings the 0.5677 friday high back into view
Oil and Iran headlines during Asia hours could materially shift this read; RBA decision Tue Sep 29 is the next scheduled risk
00:32 UTC
Short-term down, basing after gap · RSI 49 · price 0.56565
Weekend gap-down, sweep of Friday Asian low, rebound within session range.
The Asia session opened with an 8-pip gap below Friday's 0.5662 close. Price then swept Friday's 0.5650 Asian low to a 0.5649 session low, where demand held twice before a bounce to 0.5659. Price is back above EMA20 and the Friday ny low at 0.5655 but still under the unfilled gap and the 38.2% fib of the friday high-to-session low leg near 0.5660. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR is about 4 pips in thin trade, with the kiwi still heavy on Fed-hike repricing per the digest.
Support: 0.56552, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.56591, 0.56623, 0.56774
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5662 friday close fills the gap and opens the 50% fib at 0.5663
Rejection at the 0.5659 session high keeps price capped below the gap
Loss of the 0.5655 ny low returns focus to the 0.5649 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
0.5677 friday high sits above the 61.8% fib at 0.5667 as the upper bound of the retracement
RBA (Tue) and US PCE (Wed) are outside this session; thin Asia liquidity limits range expansion near term
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia drift lower · RSI 36 · price 0.5652
Weekend gap down, lower highs, marginal break of Friday low.
Asia session opened about 8 pips below the 0.5662 friday close, and price has slipped to a 0.5649 session low. That is a marginal false break of Friday's 0.5650 low, with no close through it, while lower highs from the 0.5659 asian high cap bounces. RSI(14) sits near 36 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips on thin early-week liquidity. The digest notes the kiwi is at its lowest since late June.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.5662, 0.5677
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5649 session low exposes the 0.5626 june low
Break above the Asia lower-highs line and the 0.5659 asian high shifts the read to a gap-fill attempt toward the 0.5662 friday close
Recovery through the 0.5677 friday high would negate the lower-high sequence
RBA decision Tue Sep 29 (expected +25bp) could move NZD crosses and spill into this pair
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in thin Asia · RSI 28 · price 0.56492
Weekend gap down, lower highs from 0.5659 session high, pressing Friday low.
Kiwi gapped about 8 pips lower at the weekly open after Friday's late-NY fade from the 0.5677 high, and has drifted through the early Asia session to a 0.5649 session low, pressing the 0.5650 Friday low. Lower highs are running down from the 0.5659 session high; RSI(14) is near 28, soft but not extreme, and ATR of about 4 pips reflects thin early-week liquidity with USD firm on Fed-hike pricing.
Support: 0.56489, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56502, 0.56591, 0.56623
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 0.5649 session low confirm a break of the Friday low and expose the 0.5626 june low
A reclaim of 0.5650 and push through the 0.5659 session high negates the break; the 0.5662 gap fill sits just above
A move through the down trendline from the Friday high would end the lower-high sequence
RBA decision Tue and US PCE/ADP Wed could materially shift this read