21:45 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 44 · price 0.56311
Lower-high chain from Aug peak; 0.5565–0.5710 range since early Oct.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5988 peak on Aug 21 and has traded below a falling EMA(50), now near 0.5700, since mid-September. Since early October the pair has held a 0.5565–0.5710 range. The late-October rebound stalled at the 0.5710 rebound cap, under the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline and near the downtrend line. Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold then knocked price back to the 0.5583 rbnz low, and it has spent two sessions stabilising near 0.5630, below EMA20 at 0.5656.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5656, 0.5710, 0.5800
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5583 rbnz low and the 0.5565 oct low would extend the lower-low chain; the 0.5600 round number is the first test
- A close above EMA20 at 0.5656 and then the 0.5710 rebound cap would breach the downtrend line and open the 0.5800 sep pivot
- NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 UTC) could materially shift December RBNZ pricing and this read
- US ISM (Mon) and the mid-term elections (Tue) add USD event risk to the range boundaries