USDCAD has recovered the entire Thursday slide, with Monday's NY session pushing back to 1.3848 before easing into the close at 1.3838. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) mid-range, but two attempts at 1.3848 capped the week's high. The Middle East risk-on bid for USD has underpinned the move since the Friday session low at 1.3770.
Support: 1.3826, 1.3799, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.38489, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close above week high at 1.38489 opens path to 1.38690 prior high
Loss of 1.37990 session low reopens 1.37700 week low
Headline risk from Israel-Hezbollah could drive USD bid into Asia session
USDCAD has reclaimed ground above EMA20 after Thursday's NY-session flush into 1.3770 swept the week low and reversed. Price has spent the Asia/London sessions grinding back toward the 1.3849 week high, with RSI cycling 50-62 on each pullback. The CAD weakness story tied to Middle East risk premium (per the FXStreet note) is consistent with the demand stepping in around 1.3780.
Support: 1.3828, 1.3799, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.3849, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3849 week high opens path to 1.3869 prior high
Loss of 1.3799 session low brings 1.3770 week low back in play
No tier-1 USD or CAD calendar risk in the next 24h
Range reasserting after Wednesday flush and rebound.
USDCAD spent the week pinned between 1.3770 and 1.3869, with Wednesday's NY session sweeping below 1.3780 before recovering on the Middle East risk bid. Price has reclaimed both EMAs since Monday's open and pushed back to the prior week high at 1.3849, but the latest H1 highs are stalling while RSI fails to confirm — a softer momentum read into the Asia session. Resistance at 1.3849 has now capped two attempts.
Support: 1.3826, 1.3800, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.3849, 1.3869
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3849 reopens 1.3869 and the prior week high
Rejection here with a close back below 1.3826 puts the range mid back in play
Loss of 1.3800 round number signals the recovery is fading
Headline risk from Middle East talks remains the dominant intraday driver
20:00 UTC
Recovery from week low, momentum building · RSI 63 · price 1.38417
Higher lows since Friday's low, approaching mid-week supply.
USDCAD has reclaimed the EMA20 and EMA50 during today's NY session, extending a recovery off Friday's 1.37699 week low with a clean sequence of higher lows. CAD weakness on Middle East risk-off tone has pushed price back into Wednesday's supply, with the session high at 1.38489 capping for now. RSI(14) at 63 reflects building momentum but no extreme.
Support: 1.3827, 1.3800, 1.37699
Resistance: 1.38489, 1.38693
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.38489 opens path back to week high at 1.38693
Loss of 1.38270 intraday low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Further Middle East escalation headlines remain a USD driver
USDCAD spent the first half of the week grinding into 1.3849, then flushed through 1.3780 into the 1.3770 area before stabilising and basing twice near 1.3780 across two sessions. Today's NY session has driven price back above EMA20 and EMA50, with the cross occurring during the London-NY transition as Middle East risk-on/off headlines and a stronger US ISM print lifted the dollar. RSI cycling around 55 alongside a mid-range close keeps the read as a recovery inside this week's 1.3770–1.3849 band.
Support: 1.3800, 1.3775, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.3849, 1.3869, 1.3840
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3849 week high would extend the rebound toward 1.3869 swing high
Rejection at 1.3840 session high followed by a loss of 1.3800 reopens the 1.3775 week low
Further Iran/Israel headline shifts could materially change the dollar bid driving this read
Higher-low printed Monday, two-day climb back into prior range.
USDCAD has clawed back the Thursday NY-session flush from 1.3890 to 1.3770, with the Monday low at 1.3782 holding as a higher-low against last week's base. Price reclaimed EMA(20) during the London-NY transition and printed a today high at 1.3849 before stalling; RSI(14) has cooled from 68 to 56 as the advance loses steam. The bounce coincides with risk-off flows from the Iran/Lebanon headlines and a firmer ISM Manufacturing print at 54.
Support: 1.3804, 1.3782, 1.3770
Resistance: 1.3849, 1.3869, 1.3895
What it said to watch
H1 close above the today high at 1.3849 opens path back toward the Thu high at 1.3869
Loss of the intraday base at 1.3804 puts the Mon low at 1.3782 back in play
Further geopolitical headlines on Iran/Israel could materially shift this read