USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 38 · price 1.42228
Higher lows from the PCE low; rising trendline broken, price testing 38.2% retrace.
From Monday's 1.4155 open the pair built higher lows. The Wednesday NY dip on the soft core PCE print bottomed at the 1.4154 pce low and was absorbed within the session, kicking off a 100-pip leg into Thursday. Thursday's NY session pushed only marginally above the 1.4250 prior high to a 1.4262 week high before reversing, a false break that took price through the 1.4230 range floor and the rising trendline. Price now sits below EMA(20) at 1.4232, near EMA(50) around 1.4221 and the 38.2% fib, with the thu low at 1.4217 underneath and RSI(14) slipping to 38.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4208, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4232, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4217 thu low exposes the fib 50% at 1.4208, then the 1.4155 pce low
Recapture of ema20 at 1.4232 and a hold above the 1.4250 prior high would neutralise the week high rejection
A close above the 1.4262 week high resumes the uptrend sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 1.42213
Higher highs all week, double top at 1.4260 with neckline broken.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from Monday's 1.4135 weekly open. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the dip on the soft core PCE print to the 1.4154 pce low was bought and price ran to 1.4237. Thursday formed a double top at 1.4258/1.4262 around the US ISM data, and the late-NY slide has broken the 1.4231 neckline and EMA(20), leaving price at the day low and on the 38.2% retrace of the pce low rally, with EMA(50) near 1.4207 and the 1.4200 psych level just beneath as RSI(14) eases to ~41.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 1.4231 neckline and the ema20 at 1.4236 negates the double top read
Loss of the 1.4218 day low and the 1.4200 psych level, below EMA(50), exposes the 1.4155 pce low and the 50% retrace near 1.4208 on the way
The lower highs sequence from the 1.4262 week high stays intact while price holds under 1.4252
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) plus AHE could materially shift this read; the weekly higher lows line sits near 1.4164
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading after rejection at week high · RSI 39 · price 1.42213
Twin highs near 1.4260, price back below Thursday's 1.4231 floor.
USDCAD opened the week at 1.4135 and climbed through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's soft core PCE print briefly knocked it to the 1.4155 PCE low before demand returned in the NY session and the eight-day dollar run resumed. Thursday printed twin highs at 1.4258 and the 1.4262 week high, the second a spike in NY hours after the firm US claims and ISM prices data that failed to hold. RSI(14) peaked lower at that high than at Wednesday's top, and late NY trade slipped under the 1.4231 neckline and the EMA(20) at 1.4240. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the PCE-low rally, just above the Thu low, with EMA(50) being tested from below.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4231 neckline and ema20 at 1.4240 negates the double top read
Failure to hold the Thu low at 1.4218 exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 50% fib near 1.4208
A break of the 1.4155 pce low would mark the first lower low of the week
A fresh close above the 1.4262 week high resets the read to uptrend continuation
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) with USD overbought could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 1.42239
Weekly higher lows intact; false break at week high, Thu range floor lost.
USD/CAD has climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open. The decisive leg ran from Wednesday's PCE-driven dip to 1.4154, a roughly 108-pip advance as firm US data and Fed-BoC divergence kept the dollar bid. In NY hours today the post-ISM spike to a 1.4262 week high briefly cleared the earlier 1.4258 top but failed to hold. Price has since slipped through the 1.4231 range floor and under EMA(20). It now sits at the 38.2% retracement beside the 1.4218 thu low, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s and price resting on EMA(50).
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4240, 1.4262
What it said to watch
Hourly closes below the 1.4218 thu low expose the 50% retracement near 1.4208 and the 1.4200 round number
A break of the weekly higher lows line near 1.4165 and the 1.4154 pce low would undo the week's uptrend read
Recovery above the 1.4231 range floor and ema20 near 1.4240 would recast the drop as a pullback, with the 1.4262 week high back in focus
Fed speakers tonight (Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 46 · price 1.42349
Higher lows since Monday; tight range at the top.
USDCAD opened the week near 1.4135 and stepped higher off rising lows. The Wednesday core PCE dip to the 1.4154 pce low was bought through the NY session, which took out the 1.4200 round number and ran to a 1.4262 week high in today's NY session, in line with the Fed-BoC divergence theme in the digest. Since Thursday's Asia session, price has rotated in a 1.4230–1.4262 band, with three holds at the thu lows. The last bars have slipped under the ema20 near 1.4239, and RSI(14) has eased to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4230, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4239, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4230 thu lows breaks today's range floor and exposes the 1.4200 round number and the 38.2% fib near 1.4221
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4239 and a close above the 1.4262 week high resumes the week uptrend line structure
Loss of 1.4200 puts the 1.4154 pce low and the week uptrend line back in focus
Fed speakers Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read tonight
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst for the range
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday; Thursday range 1.4230–1.4262.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from the 1.4135 weekly open. Wednesday's soft core PCE print briefly knocked price to the 1.4155 PCE low before a NY-session rebound of roughly 80 pips carried it through 1.4200. Thursday has settled into consolidation between a 1.4230 range floor, tested three times, and the 1.4262 week high set in NY after the ISM release, with price holding just above EMA(20) near 1.4240 and EMA(50) at 1.4217. That new high printed on a lower RSI(14) reading (~63 vs ~71 at the London high), a bearish divergence, with RSI now back near 55.
Support: 1.4240, 1.4230, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high resolves the consolidation higher, with the 1.4300 round number next
A break of the 1.4230 range floor opens the 38.2% PCE rally fib near 1.4221; below that, the 1.4155 PCE low and the higher-lows trendline come into view
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) would mark the first loss of momentum since Wednesday's rebound
Higher highs and lows; 1.4231-1.4262 range below week high.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the dip to the 1.4155 post-PCE low reversed on firm US yields and Fed-BoC divergence. Thursday's London and NY sessions stretched to a 1.4262 week high around the US claims and ISM prices data. Price has since rotated inside a 1.4231–1.4262 band, with RSI(14) easing into the high-50s while holding above EMA(20) and the rising trendline from the post-PCE low.
Support: 1.42313, 1.4200, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4300 round number
Break below the 1.4231 session low and the rising trendline opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.4200 round number (38.2% fib near 1.4221)
Loss of the 1.4155 post-PCE low would break the week's higher-low structure
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP could materially shift this read
Higher lows from PCE low; coiling under week high.
USD/CAD has climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open, and the dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session: a 107-pip rally off the 1.4154 PCE low as US yields reasserted, taking out the 1.4201 tuesday high. Thursday's London and NY sessions held a 1.4231–1.4258 band, with the intraday low tested twice, above EMA(20) near 1.4239. The post-ISM push printed a fresh week high at 1.4262, but RSI(14) near 62 made a lower high against it, a bearish divergence as the new high failed to hold above the prior 1.4258 top.
Support: 1.4239, 1.4231, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4300 round number
Close below the 1.4231 intraday low and the rising support line from the PCE low exposes the 1.4201 tuesday high
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) on the next dip would confirm the bearish divergence is biting
Fedspeak today (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing near week high · RSI 56 · price 1.42439
Higher highs and lows all week; tight range under the high since London.
USDCAD has printed higher highs since the 1.4135 weekly open. The decisive leg came in Wednesday's NY session: the post-PCE dip to the pce low at 1.4154 was bought, and price ran about 100 pips to the 1.4258 week high in London today. Since then it has rotated between the thu low at 1.4231 and that high, holding above EMA(20) near 1.4237 and the 23.6% fib, while RSI(14) has eased to the mid-50s against the higher price, a bearish divergence; firm US claims and hot ISM prices paid have kept USD supported despite the ISM headline miss.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the thu low at 1.4231 breaks the intraday higher-low sequence and exposes the tue high at 1.4201, close to the 38.2% fib
H1 close above the 1.4258 week high reopens the trend leg toward the 1.4300 round number
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
A break of the weekly higher-lows trendline and the pce low at 1.4154 would end this week's uptrend structure
14:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 54 · price 1.42393
Higher highs intact; consolidating above EMA(20) after failed push through 1.4250.
USD/CAD has climbed from the 1.4135 weekly open. The dominant post-PCE leg ran during NY hours Wednesday: the 1.4154 pce low found demand as US yields pushed higher, and price has held above EMA(20) since. London capped the move at the 1.4250 5-month high three times, then a false break to the 1.4258 week high reversed on a lower RSI(14) reading. Price is now consolidating near EMA(20) at about 1.4236, just above the 1.4231 day low.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4219, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 1.4258 week high negates the false break and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
Close below the 1.4231 day low exposes the 38.2% fib of the post-PCE leg at 1.4219, near Thursday's rollover low
Loss of the 38.2% fib opens the path back toward the 1.4154 pce low
Friday 12:30 UTC NFP (~90K consensus) is the next scheduled volatility point
Higher lows since Monday open; pullback from week high to EMA20.
USD/CAD has climbed steadily from Monday's 1.4135 weekly open. The decisive leg came in NY hours Wednesday, when the soft core PCE dip to 1.4154 was fully reversed as US yields pressed higher. London pushed to a week high at 1.4258 this morning but met rejection, and price is now back at EMA(20) near 1.4235 with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s. Nearby supports are the London low at 1.4231 and the Asia low at 1.4218, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the PCE low–week high leg.
Support: 1.4231, 1.4218, 1.4201
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (with Waller) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.4258 week high extends to fresh five-month highs and opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4218 asia low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.4201 tue high and the 50% retracement near 1.4206
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) would break the week's pattern of pullbacks finding the average
Weekly higher lows trendline from Monday sits well below price near 1.4162; it frames the broader leg rather than the current pullback
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling at the week high · RSI 62 · price 1.4246
Higher highs since the weekly open; 1.4200 range top broken, London high at 1.4258 rejected.
USD/CAD has built higher highs since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open. Wednesday's PCE-driven dip to the 1.4155 wed low was bought, and NY hours then delivered the breakout through the 1.4200 range top that had capped Tuesday and Wednesday, as strong US growth data and elevated yields kept USD firm. London set a fresh week high at 1.4258 today before a rejection back to 1.4245. Price is holding just above EMA(20) near 1.4240 and the 1.4237 prior high, with RSI(14) easing to ~62.
Support: 1.4237, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4258, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4258 week high would extend the uptrend toward the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4237 prior high and EMA(20) would put the 1.4200 breakout level, near the 38.2% fib, back in play
A return below 1.4200 would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the wed low at 1.4155
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, after Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Canada Manufacturing PMI is at 13:30 UTC
Higher lows since Monday; range break above 1.4200, now pulling back from 1.4250.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 weekly open, with Tuesday and Wednesday capped by a 1.4175–1.4200 range. Wednesday's post-PCE dip to 1.4154 was absorbed as strong US growth data lifted the dollar, and the NY session broke the range top, extending through Asia to a 1.4250 week high. A rejection there into the London open has price easing toward EMA(20) near 1.4229 and the 1.4218 asia low, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4218, 1.4200
Resistance: 1.4250
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.4250 week high extends the range break
Failure to hold the 1.4218 asia low exposes the 1.4200 range top for a retest
Close back below 1.4200 puts price inside the old range and weakens the breakout read
Fib 50% of the PCE dip-week high leg sits near 1.4202; it overlaps the range top
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Weekly higher-low trendline near 1.4160 is the deeper structural line
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 74 · price 1.42474
Higher lows since Monday open; 1.4200 range top broken after PCE.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Monday's 1.4135 open. The core PCE miss in Wednesday's NY session produced only a brief dip to the 1.4154 pce low. That dip was bought straight back through the 1.4200 pivot, which had capped Tuesday and Wednesday, on firm US growth data and soft oil. The advance has extended through Asia into early London, with price pressing the 1.4250 week high. Shallow pullbacks are holding above ema20, and RSI(14) sits overbought near 74.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4200, 1.41544
Resistance: 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4250 week high opens the path toward the 1.4300 round number
Pullback through ema20 near 1.4235 would show the first break in this week's rally cadence
Failure to hold the 1.4200 pivot turns the breakout into a false break back into the prior range
Loss of the 1.4154 pce low breaks the higher-low trendline from Monday's open
A new high with lower RSI(14) would flag bearish divergence against the overbought reading
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Canada Mfg PMI at 13:30 UTC is a secondary risk
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 79 · price 1.42373
Higher lows since weekly open; 1.4200 cap broken.
Since Sunday's 1.4135 open the pair has printed higher lows, but 1.4200 acted as a prior cap through Tuesday's London and NY sessions and Wednesday's Asian range. The core PCE miss knocked price to the 1.4154 pce low before beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI drove an eight-hour NY-session leg through 1.4200 to a 1.4238 week high, leaving RSI(14) overbought near 79. Price is holding above the 1.4218 rollover low and well above EMA(20), with the 1.4250 5-month high the next reference overhead.
Support: 1.4218, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4250, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 1.4200 would turn the breakout into a false break of the prior cap
Hold of the 1.4218 rollover low keeps the post-PCE leg intact; loss of it exposes the 1.4200 retest
Clearance of the 1.4238 week high puts the 1.4250 5-month high and 1.4300 round number in play
US ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, plus Canada Manufacturing PMI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Overbought RSI with stretched CAD positioning leaves the extension vulnerable to a sharp pullback toward the 61.8% retracement of the post-PCE leg