Higher lows off April base, retesting Feb peak zone.
USDCAD has recovered the full February-April decline, grinding to fresh eight-week highs near 1.3900 with price holding above a rising EMU(50) since early May. CAD softness on weaker oil and a firm Dollar near two-month DXY highs have driven the move; the last four sessions broke above the 1.3840 area and now press the 1.3925 session high. The February peak at 1.3966 caps overhead as the next major pivot.
Support: 1.3840, 1.3787
Resistance: 1.3925, 1.3966
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.3966 opens the path back toward the late-Feb extremes
Failure to hold 1.3840 negates the breakout and signals a lower high
Dual US NFP and Canada employment Friday 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, extending from April low · RSI 64 · price 1.39099
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-April.
USDCAD has carved a steady uptrend off the mid-April 1.3580 swing low, printing higher highs and higher lows with price holding above a rising EMA(50). The latest session closed at 1.3910, breaking back above the prior pivot at 1.3800 and putting the February high near 1.3966 within reach. RSI at 64 confirms momentum without flagging overbought, leaving room to extend toward the 1.4000 psych.
Support: 1.3800, 1.3720, 1.3580
Resistance: 1.3966, 1.4000
What it said to watch
D1 close back below 1.3800 prior pivot would break the higher-low sequence
Rejection at 1.3966 feb high would set up a lower-high risk
Loss of 1.3720 ema20 area would call the trend into question
16:25 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 60 · price 1.38924
Higher highs and higher lows since early-stage low at 1.3480.
Multi-month uptrend from the late-January low at 1.3480, with a clean chain of higher highs and higher lows holding price above a rising EMA(50). Pair stalled at the 1.3960 swing high in late April, pulled back to 1.3650 in mid-May, and has since rebuilt toward the range top at 1.3900. Price is consolidating in the upper third of the range with RSI in the 60s, not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3770, 1.3690
Resistance: 1.3900, 1.3945, 1.3966
What it said to watch
Daily close above 1.3900 reopens the path to the 1.3945-1.3966 prior high
Loss of 1.3770 swing low would break the recent higher-low sequence
Middle East ceasefire developments remain a CAD risk driver