USDCAD has spent the past two-plus weeks boxed between the 1.3990 swing low and the 1.4080 weekly high, with the recent bounce to 1.4080 rejected and price grinding back to the range floor near the round number. The digest frames the CAD softness as oil-driven despite firm domestic data, leaving the up-move looking stretched. Both EMAs sit above price as the pair tests the lower edge.
Support: 1.3990, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4080
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3990 confirms a lower low and range break lower
H4 close above 1.4080 reopens the weekly high
Concurrent US NFP and Canada jobs Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Range, rolling over from the top · RSI 42 · price 1.40098
Two-week range 1.3990-1.4130, lower highs into support.
USDCAD has spent two weeks boxed between the 1.3990 low and the 1.4130 swing high, with the oil-driven CAD weakness failing to force a clean break higher. Price stalled at 1.4080 — roughly the 61.8% retrace of the 1.4128-1.3990 decline and the triangle top flagged in the CAD read — before a sharp three-bar drop back to 1.4010 near the range floor. Price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI in the low 40s.
Support: 1.3991, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4055, 1.4090, 1.4130
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3991 confirms a lower low and opens the range floor
Reclaim of the 1.4090 triangle top negates the rolling-over read
Concurrent US NFP + Canada jobs Fri Aug 7 12:30 UTC is a two-sided catalyst that could reset this range
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.40179
Lower highs since early window, coiling above swing low.
USDCAD has trended lower since the 1.419 area early in the window, carving lower highs and basing in a 1.399-1.409 range as oil weakness kept the Loonie soft despite firm Canadian data. The latest bar pressed back toward the 1.39948 swing low, with price trading below both EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR(14) compressed near 19 pips. Momentum is soft but not yet at extremes ahead of Friday's dual jobs reports.
Support: 1.39948, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.39948 confirms a lower low and opens the path toward 1.3930
Reclaim of the 1.40900 triangle top invalidates the range-low pressure
Friday 12:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs land together and could materially shift this read
Downtrend intact on H4, with lower highs since price rolled over from 1.418 and the tape now grinding toward the 1.3995 swing low. Rallies have been repeatedly capped below the 1.4090 triangle top, keeping the last two weeks range-bound between there and the 1.3995 floor. The latest leg lower ties to softer USD after the ADP and ISM Services misses, offsetting the oil-led CAD weakness earlier in the week; ATR(14) steady near 19 pips.
Support: 1.3995, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4065, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.3995 confirms a lower low, opening the 1.3930 fair value reference
H4 close above 1.4090 triangle top invalidates the range read
Friday 12:30 UTC US NFP and Canada jobs (same slot) could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend easing into range · RSI 49 · price 1.40496
Range 1.3995-1.4090 after two-week decline.
USDCAD carved a downtrend from 1.4188 to the 1.3995 swing low over the past two weeks, then stabilised into a range between roughly the 1.4030 range floor and the 1.4090 weekly high. Oil weakness on US-Iran deal hopes has kept the Loonie soft, lifting the pair four sessions into the range top before this pullback to 1.4050. Descending lower highs still cap rallies while ATR sits mid-range.
Support: 1.4030, 1.3995
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4118
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4090 weekly high opens path toward the 1.4118 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.4030 range floor reopens the 1.3995 swing low
Friday dual Canada/US jobs prints could materially shift this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend easing into range · RSI 49 · price 1.40496
Two-week range, lower highs from mid-1.41s.
The slide from the mid-1.41s stalled into a two-week range between the 1.3995 swing low and the 1.4090 triangle top, with oil-driven CAD softness lifting the pair off lows but capping at the 1.4076 recent high. ATR(14) has compressed to around 42 pips, consistent with the coiling range rather than a directional leg. Price sits back at the mid-range around the flat EMA20 after this bar's rejection from 1.4070.
Support: 1.4003, 1.39948
Resistance: 1.4076, 1.4090
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4090 triangle top opens the path higher
Failure to hold the 1.3995 swing low confirms a lower low
Friday dual Canada/US jobs prints could break the range
Ranging above the 1.3991 low, higher lows into pivot.
The H4 slide from 1.4186 has stalled into a 1.3991-1.4130 range, with price recovering off the 1.3991 recent low on a series of higher lows and now pressing the 1.4070 one-week pivot. CAD has lagged despite firm domestic data as crude weakness stays the dominant drag, keeping USDCAD bid. ATR(14) sits mid-regime, neither compressed nor expanding.
Support: 1.3991, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4070, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4070 pivot opens the path toward 1.4130 swing high
Failure to hold 1.3991 confirms a lower low toward 1.3930 fair value
Canada jobs + US payrolls Fri 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend easing, basing near range highs · RSI 55 · price 1.40657
Higher lows off 1.3991, testing 1wk pivot.
USDCAD has carved a rounded recovery off the 1.3991 low, grinding back to the 1.4078 one-week pivot as crude weakness keeps the Loonie on the back foot despite firm Canadian data. ATR(14) has compressed to ~18 pips into this pivot, and price is holding above both EMAs after a series of higher lows. The 1.4078 area caps the recovery for now, with the broader early-window down leg from 1.4128 still framing the range.
Support: 1.4027, 1.3995, 1.3930
Resistance: 1.4078, 1.4128
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4078 pivot opens the path to the 1.4128 swing high
Failure to hold 1.4027 range low reopens 1.3991
Canada jobs + US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT could materially reprice this pair
The multi-week decline from 1.4193 bottomed at 1.3995 and price has since carved higher lows, now grinding back into the 1.4068-1.4080 weekly high area. CAD has lagged its firm domestic data as the oil slide capped the Loonie, letting USDCAD recover despite the softer USD tone this week. ATR near 19 pips reflects a moderate regime with price pressing the top of its recent range.
Support: 1.4023, 1.3995
Resistance: 1.4080, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4080 opens the path toward 1.4110
Failure to hold 1.4023 exposes the 1.3995 two-week low
Canada Employment and US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC could reset this read
The broad decline from 1.4208 has stalled into a multi-day range roughly between the 1.4000 psych and the 1.4110 swing high; a dip below 1.4000 to the 1.3991 two-week low was recovered, leaving a false break of the figure. Price is now retesting the 1.4068 weekly high as CAD stays soft on the oil slide, keeping USDCAD grinding to fresh weekly highs. ATR(14) has normalised after the spike-driven drop, with EMA20 flattening just under price.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3991
Resistance: 1.4068, 1.4110
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4068 weekly high opens the path to 1.4110 swing high
Failure to hold 1.4000 psych reopens the 1.3991 two-week low
Simultaneous US and Canada jobs Fri could materially shift this read