Higher lows since Wednesday's low; early-week 1.3930–1.4014 range broken to the upside.
After a 1.3930–1.4014 range through Wednesday, higher lows formed from Wednesday's 1.3929 low. Thursday's NY session and Friday's London session pushed price through the range top. The US NFP beat (165K vs 65K) and Canada's -4.7K jobs miss drove a 45-pip NY-open bar off the 1.4052 pre-NFP low. Price is grinding into the week high at 1.4134 with the 1.4150 psych level just above, while RSI(14) holds in the high 70s and the 1.4090 post-NFP low marks the shallow pullback so far.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4052, 1.4014
Resistance: 1.4134, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.4090 post-NFP low would signal the impulse losing traction
Failure to hold the 1.4052 pre-NFP low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 1.4014 range top back in play
Acceptance above the 1.4134 week high and 1.4150 psych would extend the breakout leg
US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) and the BoC Summary of Deliberations (Tue 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; weekend oil headlines are the nearer risk
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's London open, week high printed.
USD/CAD has stacked higher lows since Thursday's London open off 1.3942, reversing the midweek slide to 1.3929. The dominant leg came in Friday's NY session as the 165K NFP beat landed alongside a -4.7K Canadian jobs miss, clearing the 1.4014–1.4024 highs from Tuesday and Thursday and printing a week high at 1.4131, with the post-NFP low at 1.4090 holding and price well above EMA(20) near 1.4077. RSI(14) near 80 is overbought, and the pre-NFP low at 1.4052 sits close to the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday rally and the higher lows trendline.
Support: 1.4090, 1.4077, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4131, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4131 week high exposes the 1.4150 round number
H1 close back below the 1.4090 post-NFP low and EMA(20) at 1.4077 signals the NFP spike losing hold
Break of the 1.4052 pre-NFP low and the higher lows trendline would end the Thursday–Friday higher-low sequence
RSI(14) at 80 is overbought; a lower RSI peak on a new high would flag bearish divergence
Weekend oil and US-Iran headlines can gap the open; BoC Summary of Deliberations and US CPI, both Tue, could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 1.3942 low; post-data breakout above 1.4081.
USDCAD has erased the midweek slide to Wednesday's 1.3929 low. Price set a higher low near 1.3942 at Thursday's London open, then reclaimed 1.4000 into NY hours and pressed to 1.4081 in Friday's London session. The US/Canada jobs divergence (NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) then drove a spike to a 1.4128 week high, and the pre-nfp low at 1.4052 held exactly at the 38.2% fib of the week's advance. Price is trading well above EMA(20) near 1.4071, the post-nfp low at 1.4093 has held on the first dip, and RSI(14) near 77 is overbought after a near one-way run since Thursday.
Support: 1.4093, 1.4071, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4128, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the post-nfp low at 1.4093 would leave the jobs spike vulnerable to a deeper pullback toward ema20 at 1.4071
Failure at 1.4052, the pre-nfp low and 38.2% fib, would break the higher-low trendline and undercut the breakout read
A clean hold above the 1.4128 week high opens the path to the 1.4150 round number
Fed's Daly (18:00 UTC today) and Tuesday's US CPI and BoC Summary of Deliberations could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after jobs spike · RSI 74 · price 1.41077
USDCAD has carved higher lows from Wednesday's 1.3929 low, set during the midterm-driven CAD rally. Thursday's NY session took price back above 1.40, and London pushed it to a prior high at 1.4081 on safe-haven USD demand. The US/Canada jobs divergence (NFP 165K vs Canada -4.7K) then drove a roughly 50-pip spike into the NY open to an nfp high at 1.4126. Since then price has consolidated at 1.4090–1.4110 above the prior high, well clear of both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 74 in overbought territory.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4052, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.4126, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the prior high at 1.4081 would mark the post-data breakout as a potential false break
Pre-nfp low at 1.4052 sits with the 38.2% fib and the higher-low trendline; a break there ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of Thursday's thu high at 1.4024 would retrace half the Wed–Fri advance
H1 close above the nfp high at 1.4126 opens the 1.4150 round number
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) today; BoC Summary of Deliberations and US CPI on Tue could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after jobs spike · RSI 74 · price 1.4102
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, breakout above 1.4080.
USDCAD has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 week low, then climbed steadily through Friday's Asia and London sessions to a 1.4081 london high. The simultaneous US NFP beat and Canada jobs miss drove a breakout from the 1.4052 pre-nfp low to a 1.4126 nfp high during NY hours. Price has eased back to 1.4100, holding above the rising EMA(20) near 1.4065 with RSI(14) overbought in the low-mid 70s.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4065, 1.4052
Resistance: 1.4126, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4081 london high would leave the breakout as a spike-and-fade
Loss of the 1.4052 pre-nfp low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the week's sequence
Close above the 1.4126 nfp high opens the 1.4150 round number
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) today could shift the post-NFP read
Tuesday's US CPI and BoC Summary of Deliberations are the next scheduled tests
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended after data spike · RSI 76 · price 1.41003
Higher lows since Wednesday; breakout above 1.4024 prior high, wick rejection at 1.4126.
USDCAD has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 week low. Thursday's NY session reclaimed 1.40, and London extended the climb to the 1.4081 london high. The 13:30 UTC double hit drove a 45-pip spike through that level: a 165K US payrolls beat landed alongside a -4.7K Canadian jobs miss. The following hour printed the 1.4126 week high, then faded to 1.4100, leaving a wick rejection with RSI(14) near 76 and price well above EMA(20). The 1.4052 pre-data low sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.3942–1.4126 leg. The 1.4024 prior high from Thursday is the breakout level below that.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4052, 1.4024
Resistance: 1.41256, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Ivey PMI and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hourly close back below the 1.4081 london high turns the spike into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.4052 pre-data low and the higher-low trendline breaks the sequence of higher lows
Close above the 1.4126 week high opens the path to the 1.4150 round number
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on the jobs beat may extend or unwind the USD leg
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3929 low.
USD/CAD has built a higher-lows sequence off Wednesday's 1.3929 low. It cleared the 1.4014 Tuesday high in Thursday's NY session and extended through Asia and London on the safe-haven USD bid from the AI-led equity sell-off, peaking at 1.4081, a prior high, before a shallow dip to a 1.4052 swing low. The 13:30 GMT US and Canada jobs releases then produced a ~45-pip impulse bar to the 1.4109 data high, about three times ATR. RSI(14) is near 79 and price sits well clear of both EMAs.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4052, 1.4014
Resistance: 1.4109, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4081 prior high would leave the post-data spike as a failed extension
Failure to hold the 1.4052 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the Friday sequence
A sustained push through the 1.4109 data high leaves the 1.4150 round number as the next marker
A deeper pullback toward the Tuesday high at 1.4014 would test the 50% retrace of the Wed-Fri leg
NFP and Canada LFS actuals are not yet in the feed; UoM sentiment and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT could shift this read
Range break with higher lows since Thursday; first pullback from 1.4081.
USDCAD spent Monday to Thursday morning in a 1.3929–1.4014 range, then broke the Tuesday prior high during Thursday's NY session. The Thursday–Friday impulse extended through Asia and early London to a week high at 1.4081 as the AI-equity rout drove haven USD demand. Price has since eased to the 1.4052 london low and is slipping onto the rising trendline from Thursday's low, while holding above the ema20 near 1.4040. RSI(14) has cooled from near 80 to about 69.
Support: 1.4052, 1.4040, 1.4012
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canada LFS at 13:30 GMT land simultaneously and could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.4052 london low and the ema20 near 1.4040 would mark the first lower low since the Thursday–Friday impulse
Loss of the 1.4012 prior high, which sits at the 50% fib of the impulse, would put the range break in question
A close above the 1.4081 week high opens the path to the 1.4100 round number
Range break; higher lows since Wednesday, pullback from 1.4081.
USDCAD held a 1.3929–1.4014 range from Monday to Thursday. The range low printed in Wednesday's London session, and Thursday's London low at 1.3942 was a higher low. The rally trendline off Thursday's London lows carried price through the range top late in Thursday's NY session, and the move extended through Asia and London today to a 1.4081 week high. That leg came as the AI-stock rout revived safe-haven USD demand and erased the post-election CAD gains. Price has since eased to 1.4064, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~75 from overbought extremes, though price still sits well above EMA(20) at 1.4037.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4037, 1.4014
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canada jobs, both at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read; the relative surprise between the two releases drives the pair.
An H1 close below the rally trendline (~1.4056) and EMA(20) at 1.4037 exposes the 38.2–50% fib zone at 1.4028–1.4012.
Failure to hold the 1.4014 range top would turn this week's breakout into a false break back inside the range.
An H1 close above the 1.4081 week high reopens the 1.4100 round number.
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, breakout above 1.4000.
USDCAD has reversed from Wednesday's 1.3929 seven-week low, put in a higher low at 1.3942 on Thursday, and broke above Tuesday's 1.4014 cap during NY hours. It then climbed through the Asia session and into London to a 1.4081 week high as the AI-equity rout drove safe-haven USD demand. The first pullback is holding above EMA(20) near 1.4035, with RSI(14) easing to about 72 from overbought; the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Fri leg sits at 1.4023, matching Thursday's NY high.
Support: 1.4035, 1.4023, 1.4010
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canada jobs, both at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read; the relative surprise between them sets the direction
H1 close back below the 38.2% fib at 1.4023 would point to a deeper retracement of the Wed–Fri leg
A break of the higher-lows trendline and Friday's asia low at 1.4010 would undercut the breakout above 1.4000
H1 close above the 1.4081 week high opens the 1.4100 round number
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after range break · RSI 82 · price 1.40767
Mon–Thu 1.3929–1.4014 range broken; higher lows since Thursday.
USD/CAD held a 1.3929–1.4014 range from Monday through Thursday's London session. A risk-off USD bid tied to the AI-equity sell-off then lifted it through the range top and the 1.4024 Thu high during Thursday's NY session. The Asia and London sessions extended the move to a 1.4081 session high, and a rising trendline from Thursday's 1.3942 low has held every dip, with price well clear of EMA(20). RSI(14) near 82 is overbought with no bearish divergence yet. Almost none of the 139-pip Thursday–Friday impulse has been retraced, and the 1.4100 round number is the next reference above.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4024, 1.4014
Resistance: 1.4081, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canada jobs at 13:30 UTC land together; the relative surprise could materially shift this read
Clearance of the 1.4081 session high exposes the 1.4100 round number
Break of the rising trendline near 1.4056 points to a deeper pullback toward the 1.4024 Thu high and the 50% fib of the impulse
H1 close back below the 1.4014 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched · RSI 85 · price 1.40732
Higher lows since Thursday, break above Tuesday's 1.4014 high.
USD/CAD has fully reversed Wednesday's dip to 1.3929, setting a higher low at the 1.3942 thu low near Thursday's London open. It then cleared Tuesday's 1.4014 cap and Thursday's high at 1.4024 through Asia and early London today, printing a new week high at 1.4074. Haven USD demand on the Nasdaq rout outweighed hawkish BoC commentary. RSI(14) near 85 and price roughly 45 pips above EMA(20), now near 1.4028, show a stretched run with no pullback of note since late Thursday.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4074, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Holding above Thursday's high at 1.4024, where EMA(20) also sits, keeps the higher-lows sequence intact
H1 close back below the 1.4000 psych level, also the 50% retrace on the rally fib, would mark the breakout as failed
Break of the higher-lows trendline from Thursday's low would end the impulse structure
Acceptance above the 1.4074 week high leaves the 1.4100 round number as the next reference
US NFP and Canada LFS both at 13:30 UTC, after Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 79 · price 1.40619
V-reversal from Wednesday's week low; higher lows since Thursday, now at week high.
Wednesday's post-midterm slide to the 1.3929 week low reversed fully. The NY session on Thursday reclaimed the 1.4000 round number, and safe-haven USD demand carried the pair through the Asia session to a new week high at 1.4063 in early London. The rally has printed higher lows along a rising trendline from Thursday's 1.3942 low, with the thu high at 1.4024 now beneath price. RSI(14) near 79 is overbought and price sits well above EMA(20), so the move is extended relative to its recent pullback depth.
Support: 1.4024, 1.4000, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4063, 1.4100
What it said to watch
US NFP and Canada LFS both at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the relative surprise matters for USD/CAD
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift USD hike pricing before the jobs data
Failure to hold the thu high at 1.4024 breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.4000 round number
H1 close back below 1.4000 turns the breakout into a false break, with the 61.8% fib near 1.3980 next
Acceptance above the 1.4063 week high leaves the 1.4100 psych level as the next marker; overbought RSI flags exhaustion risk into the data
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into overbought · RSI 81 · price 1.40562
Higher low at 1.3942, break above Tuesday's 1.4014 range top.
USD/CAD has reversed the post-midterm midweek slide. It printed a higher low at 1.3942 into Thursday's London open, above Wednesday's 1.3929 trough, then rallied through NY as the claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks lifted the USD. The late-NY push through the Tue high at 1.4014 and the 1.4000 round number has extended through the Asia session to a fresh week high at 1.4057. Price sits well above EMA(20) along a rising trendline, with RSI(14) overbought near 81 and ATR(14) compressed to about 11 pips ahead of the jobs data.
Support: 1.40136, 1.4000, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.40566, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Simultaneous US and Canada jobs reports at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the relative surprise matters more than either print alone
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC may set the pre-NFP tone for the USD leg
Week high at 1.4057 is an area to watch for rejection, or for extension toward the 1.4100 psych level
An hourly close back below the Tue high at 1.4014 and the 1.4000 round number would turn the breakout into a false break; the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Friday rally sits near 1.4008
A break of the rising trendline from Thursday's higher low would signal the rally losing momentum
Failure to hold the 1.3942 higher low reopens Wednesday's 1.3929 trough
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 78 · price 1.40451
Higher low at 1.3942 after Wednesday's 1.3929 low, break above Tuesday high.
USD/CAD built a higher low at 1.3942 in Thursday's London session, above Wednesday's post-midterm 1.3929 low. It then rallied as the USD recovered on the claims beat and rebounding yields. A first push to 1.4005 in the first hour of NY was rejected, but the pullback held the 1.3980 swing low (61.8% of the rally). Late-NY and Asian buying then cleared the 1.4014 Tue high and the 1.4000 round number, printing a new week high at 1.4047 with RSI(14) near 78 and price well above EMA(20).
Support: 1.40136, 1.4000, 1.39802
Resistance: 1.40473
What it said to watch
Today's 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada employment reports land together and could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC is a nearer-term USD risk ahead of the jobs data
Hold above the 1.4014 Tue high keeps the breakout intact; a return below 1.4000 round number would mark it as a false break
Break of the rally trendline and a close below the 1.3980 swing low would undo the higher-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.4047 week high extends the impulse; stalling there with RSI overbought leaves room for a retest of 1.4014
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 72 · price 1.40394
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, breakout above Tuesday's high.
USD/CAD has built higher lows since Wednesday's post-midterm low at 1.3929. Thursday's rally began in the London session and extended through NY as firmer jobless claims and Fed hike talk lifted the USD. The Asia session on Friday pushed through the Tuesday high at 1.4014 to a new week high at 1.4044, with price well above EMA(20) near 1.4008 and RSI(14) overbought around 72.
Support: 1.4014, 1.4000, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4044, 1.4050
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the tue high at 1.4014 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rally trendline and the 38.2% fib near 1.4000 would point to a deeper retracement of the Wed low–week high move
Failure below the thu low at 1.3942 would break the higher-low sequence
A sustained move through the 1.4050 round number would extend the breakout beyond the week high
The Canada and US jobs reports at 13:30 UTC (15:30 broker time) could materially shift this read, with the relative surprise between the two releases the key factor
Higher lows off 1.3929; break of Tuesday high retested.
USD/CAD has erased Wednesday's post-midterm drop to 1.3929. Thursday's London-session higher low at 1.3942 started a near 100-pip climb as USD recovered on the claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks. Late in Thursday's NY session price cleared the 1.4012 Tuesday high, and the Asian-session dip held that level as a retest before tagging a week high at 1.4040. Price sits well above EMA(20) near 1.4004, just over the 1.4000 round number, with RSI(14) overbought in the mid-70s.
Support: 1.4012, 1.4000, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4040, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Friday 13:30 UTC Canada and US jobs reports land simultaneously; the relative surprise could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.4012 Tuesday high and 1.4000 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
Stall at the 1.4040 week high with RSI(14) rolling out of overbought would flag exhaustion; a close above opens the 1.4050 half-figure
Loss of 1.3980 Thursday NY lows, near the 50% retracement of the week swing, would break the higher-low sequence
Wednesday's post-midterm USD drop bottomed at 1.3929, and Thursday's higher low at 1.3942 held before NY-session buying after the 189K claims print lifted price through the 1.4014 tue high and into a fresh week high at 1.4032 in Asia Friday. Pullbacks since Thursday have stayed on a rising higher-lows line and above EMA(20), now near 1.3995, with RSI(14) near 69. The 38.2% retracement of the 1.3929–1.4032 leg sits near 1.3993, alongside EMA(20).
Support: 1.40136, 1.3995, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.40319, 1.4050
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.4014 tue high would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the higher-lows line and EMA(20) near 1.3995 would expose the 38.2% fib zone and 1.3942 higher low
Acceptance above the 1.4032 week high leaves the 1.4050 round number as the next reference
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then simultaneous US and Canada jobs reports at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, pressing week high · RSI 69 · price 1.40226
Higher lows since Wednesday; Tuesday high broken and retested.
USDCAD has built higher lows since Wednesday's post-election low at 1.3929. Thursday's London and NY sessions drove the dominant leg, helped by the claims beat and hawkish Fed remarks, clearing the 1.3990–1.4000 cap and the tue high at 1.4014. Asia-session dips have since held that retest and the higher-lows line, with price at the week high of 1.4024, a rising EMA(20) near 1.3996 below and RSI(14) around 69, just under overbought.
Support: 1.40136, 1.3996, 1.39422
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the tue high at 1.4014 reopens the ema20 / 1.4000 area
38.2% fib of the Wednesday-to-week-high rally sits at 1.3988, just under the ema20
H1 close above the week high at 1.4024 extends the higher-lows sequence into fresh weekly highs
A break of the thu low at 1.3942 would invalidate the higher-lows structure
Simultaneous US and Canada jobs reports at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend resuming after a range break above 1.4000 · RSI 66 · price 1.40132
Higher low at 1.3942, higher high at 1.4024; holding just above the prior range top.
USD/CAD rotated in a 1.3930–1.4014 range from Monday to Wednesday, and the election-driven USD selloff set the week low at 1.3929 early in Wednesday's NY session. Thursday's rally ran from London into NY, helped by the 189K claims beat, hawkish Fed commentary and soft oil. It cleared the 1.4000 round number, printed a week high at 1.4024 late in NY, then stalled around Tuesday's high near 1.4014. Price sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 66, and Thursday's higher low at 1.3942 anchors the rising support line.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3980, 1.3942
Resistance: 1.4014, 1.4024
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.4000 round number would mark the move as a false break and return price to the prior range
Loss of the 1.3980 pullback low exposes the 50% retracement near 1.3977 and the rising support line
Acceptance above the 1.4024 week high extends the higher-high sequence; repeated stalls at Tuesday's high point to range-top rejection
US NFP and Canada jobs land together at 13:30 UTC Friday and could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams speaks at 09:30 UTC
Higher low at 1.3942, push through Tuesday high above 1.4000.
After Wednesday's election-driven slide to the 1.3929 week low, the pair set a higher low at 1.3942 in Thursday's London session. It then rallied through the NY session as the USD clawed back ground on the 189K claims beat and hawkish Fed talk. That Wednesday-to-Thursday rally lifted price back above the 1.4000 round number and through the 1.4014 Tuesday high to a 1.4024 week high late in NY hours. RSI(14) near 71 shows the leg is stretched, and the ema20 near 1.3985 sits well below price after a string of pullbacks that held the higher lows trendline.
Support: 1.40136, 1.4000, 1.3985
Resistance: 1.40237
What it said to watch
Fri 13:30 UTC US NFP and Canada employment land in the same slot; a relative surprise could materially shift this read
Hourly close back below the 1.4000 round number returns price to the week's 1.3930–1.4014 range
Failure to hold above the Tuesday high at 1.4014 marks the push as a false break
Break of the higher lows trendline and the ema20 near 1.3985 undercuts the Thursday rally structure
Clearance of the 1.4024 week high extends the move beyond this week's range